This is Coronavirus- Do not panic!

Started by rufus the dawg, February 28, 2020, 20:23:30 pm

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DavidL

March 26, 2020, 11:57:26 am #210 Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 12:25:37 pm by DavidL
Whilst considering hindsight:
It seems obvious now that our love of winter sports has greatly exacerbated the CV-19 crisis (the Austrian resort of Ischgl has been cited as an epicentre of infection). Ski resorts are, perhaps, uniquely designed to do the virus's work. A coming together of people from all around Europe to spend time packed into cable cars and gondolas and then return whence they came, mostly using a flying test tube that helps to germinate the seeds of the disease. What could have been done?
Identify all who had spent time in a European ski resort in the last three months and ensure they were tested? Would those people have voluntarily come forward, knowing the implications? Perhaps they could have been ordered to present themselves at a clinic for testing and escorted by police had they refused. Undoubtedly this approach allied to contact tracing would have helped. I believe, Ischgl exported the disease to Germany, Iceland, Norway and Denmark. As it is a popular destination for Brits, the UK can surely be added to that list too but our lack of testing means it has not been included. A criminal investigation is currently underway after suggestions that infection in the resort was covered up.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/24/criminal-investigation-austria-ski-resort-hundreds-infected/

Is it also time to question the wisdom of 'cheek by jowl' living in large cities? For years the government has allowed more and more people to pour into the capital city with no thought as to the consequences (majority of immigration has been to the capital). Transport is overburdened with passengers, who have no choice but to inhale the germs of others everyday. Expansion without any form of control is clearly dangerous. London, New York, Madrid etc. All these overcrowded cities will be hardest hit. Is there ever a time when the number of people living in the same space is considered a major health risk? London is way down the list for the most densely-populated cities but the behaviour of its inhabitants is more important in this context.  The necessity to use crowded transport is probably key.
Wake-up time for humanity.

Bisto

Quote from: DavidL on March 26, 2020, 11:57:26 amWhilst considering hindsight:
It seems obvious now that our love of winter sports has greatly exacerbated the CV-19 crisis (the Austrian resort of Ischgl has been cited as an epicentre of infection). Ski resorts are, perhaps, uniquely designed to do the virus's work. A coming together of people from all around Europe to spend time packed into cable cars and gondolas and then return whence they came, mostly using a flying test tube that helps to germinate the seeds of the disease. What could have been done?
Identify all who had spent time in a European ski resort in the last three months and ensure they were tested? Would those people have voluntarily come forward, knowing the implications? Perhaps they could have been ordered to present themselves at a clinic for testing and escorted by police had they refused. Undoubtedly this approach allied to contact tracing would have helped. I believe, Ischgl exported the disease to Germany, Iceland, Norway and Denmark. As it is a popular destination for Brits, the UK can surely be added to that list too but our lack of testing means it has not been included. A criminal investigation is currently underway after suggestions that infection in the resort was covered up.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/24/criminal-investigation-austria-ski-resort-hundreds-infected/

Is it also time to question the wisdom of 'cheek by jowl' living in large cities? For years the government has allowed more and more people to pour into the capital city with no thought as to the consequences (majority of immigration has been to the capital). Transport is overburdened with passengers, who have no choice but to inhale the germs of others everyday. Expansion without any form of control is clearly dangerous. London, New York, Madrid etc. All these overcrowded cities will be hardest hit. Is there ever a time when the number of people living in the same space is considered a major health risk?
Wake-up time for humanity.
I think so too...but what do you propose we do about it when modern, Western style societies, cultures and economies aren't designed or structured to function in any other way?
No good deed goes unpunished!

No amount of anxiety can change the future. No amount of regret can change the past.

zoony

You'd like to think that with the knowledge in the world these days, they will get on top of this infection quickly. I wonder how they got on top of Spanish flu which came to light in 1918?

döm

They only got on top of it after it killed approximately 50 million people Worldwide. Herd immunity was the only method at the time.
When the truth offends we lie and lie until we can longer remember it is even there. But it is still there. Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is repaid

döm

Quote from: Bisto on March 26, 2020, 12:44:22 pmI think so too...but what do you propose we do about it when modern, Western style societies, cultures and economies aren't designed or structured to function in any other way?
Let's face it we are social animals and these diseases naturally exploit that.
When the truth offends we lie and lie until we can longer remember it is even there. But it is still there. Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is repaid

DavidL

Quote from: Bisto on March 26, 2020, 12:44:22 pmI think so too...but what do you propose we do about it when modern, Western style societies, cultures and economies aren't designed or structured to function in any other way?
Purely addressing the transport issues, we need to employ some different measures to ensure our infrastructure is developed adequately. Let's suppose we use the current social distancing rules as a guide so that during most busy periods, services are designed to maintain those rules. Granted, that would mean probably three-times the amount of trains, buses etc (or a third less people needing to use them). It sounds impossible to achieve, I know. And the possibility that we could close a city to new residents to avoid infrastructure overload seems unthinkable in a liberal society.
There is a possibility, though that working from home will become the new normal for all but those who have no alternative. That would take a huge weight off an inadequate transport network. Could be a game-changer.

Matt2112

Quote from: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 26, 2020, 11:10:49 amMeanwhile, in Chesterfield, Police were called to break up a House Party last night.

FFS....don't da yoof realise There's A Very Popular App For That..?  It's called - funnily enough - "Houseparty". ::)
The keys to happiness

Slim

Rufus either never bothers to read the refutations to the nonsense he types, or he doesn't want to learn. But for those without their eyes closed and their metaphorical fingers jammed in their ears: rest assured, as the Health Secretary stated very clearly, indeed as I transcribed in this very thread:

We have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists. Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy. Our goal is to protect life from this virus, our strategy is to protect the most vulnerable and protect the NHS through contain, delay, research and mitigate.

We are working through our clear action plan. Like all our decisions, the plan is based on the bedrock of the science, with maximum transparency. We will do the right thing at the right time, based on the best available science.


It must be very frustrating to keep sniping at a government that keeps winning.

Meanwhile, a thought occurred to me a while ago: there's going to come a point when a substantial number of people have recovered from COVID-19, while a substantial percentage of the population still needs to be protected. Nadine Dorries sat next to Matt Hancock in the Commons on her return to work, on the basis that she is presumed immune; she couldn't infect him or be infected.

But I suspect all of us are still going to be subjected to social distancing in the queue at Tesco and whatever other rules might be in effect, aren't we? Even if we've tested positive for the antibodies. Unless there's going to be some sort of immunity ID card you can apply for, but the logistics for that might be prohibitive. Also it might encourage a few people to try to contract the infection, to get it over with and continue as normal. And actually that might be very beneficial at the moment, in terms of wider society. Interesting one.
Lies run sprints, but the truth runs marathons.

zoony

I think they need to clarify more regarding this one period of exercise that people are allowed. Some people may go out for a long walk, or a bike ride that could take up to 3 hours. Some people who walk their dogs 3 times a day for half an hour at a time, are out there for half the time than the first group of people I mentioned.

Slim

Quote from: DavidL on March 26, 2020, 09:08:30 amThe government's response to lack of equipment and testing kits is woeful. Matt Hancock appears to be lying to try to reassure people whilst covering up the true situation.

Nadhim Zahawi was on Newsnight last night and it was one of the worst performances by a governmemt minister I've ever seen. He could not provide any certainty on deliyery of ventilators. Same with test kits, same with PPE

Perhaps Nadhim was not actually able to provide any certainty - you can't blame the government for circumstances that no-one could have predicted or even imagined a few weeks ago. Or perhaps we should be ramping up manufacture of crystal balls, once we're done with ventilators and face masks.
Lies run sprints, but the truth runs marathons.

Slim

Quote from: zoony on March 26, 2020, 15:27:30 pmI think they need to clarify more regarding this one period of exercise that people are allowed. Some people may go out for a long walk, or a bike ride that could take up to 3 hours. Some people who walk their dogs 3 times a day for half an hour at a time, are out there for half the time than the first group of people I mentioned.

I think it's important that there's a simple rule, because a lot of people out there are stupid, unfortunately. But the important thing surely is not the actual time you spend outside, but the risk of spreading the disease.

For example for a couple living in some remote cottage in the middle of nowhere, going out for a walk five times a day wouldn't actually pose a problem if they're never likely to see another human being. But the government isn't going to come out and say that, because it makes it complicated and ambiguous and you don't want people who live in New Cross or Camden wandering around and bumping into their mates in the street several times a day.

Personally I'm sticking to the letter of the law (or rule) and going out once or not at all, but I'm making sure I don't spend even the briefest amount of time with anyone except 'er indoors.
Lies run sprints, but the truth runs marathons.

Nïckslïkk2112

Quote from: zoony on March 26, 2020, 15:27:30 pmI think they need to clarify more regarding this one period of exercise that people are allowed. Some people may go out for a long walk, or a bike ride that could take up to 3 hours. Some people who walk their dogs 3 times a day for half an hour at a time, are out there for half the time than the first group of people I mentioned.
Go out walking the dog three times, three times the chance of being exposed to COVID19.
Riding a bike on the road easier to give a wide berth to people, not near people for as long and easier to get to somewhere more isolated. Apart from the fact that people are driving out to more isolated places and then walking.

I'm going out once a day for up to an hour and a half - so far - for exercise purpose on a bike you have to do it for longer as at times you can just coast along.
Legend in my own Mind<br /><br />

Not enough war
Not enough famine
Not enough suffering
Not enough natural selection

Matt2112

"One form of exercise a day"

That'll explain all the traithletes getting arrested while changing into their cycling gear. :)
The keys to happiness

DavidL

March 26, 2020, 16:35:10 pm #223 Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 16:43:04 pm by DavidL
Quote from: Slim on March 26, 2020, 15:28:01 pmPerhaps Nadhim was not actually able to provide any certainty - you can't blame the government for circumstances that no-one could have predicted or even imagined a few weeks ago. Or perhaps we should be ramping up manufacture of crystal balls, once we're done with ventilators and face masks.
In that case, Dominic Cummings should be telling ministers to say that, rather than keep banging on about "ramping up this and ramping up that"!
It's doing them more harm by continuing to say they are getting PPE to the NHS whilst at the same time nurses are saying they don't have any and Matt Hancock telling the country the NHS has 12,000 ventilators when they have only 8,000.  Nadhim made himself look a tool by continually changing the subject and avoiding answering the question. I'm not a fan of Maitless but she skewered him. It's worth a look

https://youtu.be/x-N_fYEGexE

They should stop trying to 'pull the wool' IMO

rufus the dawg

Quote from: Slim on March 26, 2020, 15:23:27 pmRufus either never bothers to read the refutations to the nonsense he types, or he doesn't want to learn. But for those without their eyes closed and their metaphorical fingers jammed in their ears: rest assured, as the Health Secretary stated very clearly, indeed as I transcribed in this very thread:

We have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists. Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy. Our goal is to protect life from this virus, our strategy is to protect the most vulnerable and protect the NHS through contain, delay, research and mitigate.

We are working through our clear action plan. Like all our decisions, the plan is based on the bedrock of the science, with maximum transparency. We will do the right thing at the right time, based on the best available science.


It must be very frustrating to keep sniping at a government that keeps winning.

Meanwhile, a thought occurred to me a while ago: there's going to come a point when a substantial number of people have recovered from COVID-19, while a substantial percentage of the population still needs to be protected. Nadine Dorries sat next to Matt Hancock in the Commons on her return to work, on the basis that she is presumed immune; she couldn't infect him or be infected.

But I suspect all of us are still going to be subjected to social distancing in the queue at Tesco and whatever other rules might be in effect, aren't we? Even if we've tested positive for the antibodies. Unless there's going to be some sort of immunity ID card you can apply for, but the logistics for that might be prohibitive. Also it might encourage a few people to try to contract the infection, to get it over with and continue as normal. And actually that might be very beneficial at the moment, in terms of wider society. Interesting one.
Oh dear. You are 100% wrong. 

Chief scientific adviser says we doing Herd Immunity. 5 minutes in very clear. 
Bond, Rufus, Dash and Blaize.