This is Coronavirus- Do not panic!

Started by rufus the dawg, February 28, 2020, 20:23:30 pm

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zoony

A lot better system in operation at the Bridgnorth branch of Sainsburys this morning. They were letting a certain amount in, and then any others were only allowed in when somebody came out. Everyone keeping their distances while queuing for the tills, and to get in. Some shelves were noticeably bare, but we were still able to get a lot of items today that were just not available at the Kidderminster branch on Saturday. Wendy made me wipe my hands and the car steering wheel with antiseptic wipes when we came out, but it's hard to get used to these new measures. We've got to though.

Nïckslïkk2112

Thanks to COVID19 I'm now on Furlough. Wish I'd notice the email telling me about it 2 hours earlier...
Legend in my own Mind


Slim


Matt2112

Quote from: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 25, 2020, 12:31:58 pmThanks to COVID19 I'm now on Furlough. Wish I'd notice the email telling me about it 2 hours earlier...

Ah, bugger, sorry to hear that Mr Sims, if not exactly surprised.  Hope things work out.

Myself, I should get paid in full for March, the expectation being that working hours will continue to be unaffected for the rest of this month.  The thinking is that as things stand, we'll get paid in full for April also, though of course that may well change with little to no notice.  Our group is US-owned, so as all the US employees are grossly overpaid in the first place, they'll be taking any impact before anyone else. ::)
The keys to happiness

Matt2112

The keys to happiness

Nïckslïkk2112

Quote from: Matt2112 on March 25, 2020, 13:23:52 pmAh, bugger, sorry to hear that Mr Sims, if not exactly surprised.  Hope things work out.

Thanks Mr 2112. It's a good job I had my untaken holidays paid up in March. I'll be getting 80% of salary, so with not now having to buy petrol I'll be OK.

Just need to get things under control and Carpet Shops open for business again. So please, all you people at home, walk around on your carpets as much as possible to wear them out, then when things are back to normal pop out to your local United Carpets store. To all you folk in the South East this will probably entail a trip to Nuneaton...
Legend in my own Mind


Slim

Sorry to hear that Nick, fingers crossed it's all back to normal in a month or three.

Oddly I can feel a touch of cabin fever today, despite having worked from home for years, and I don't usually get it. Perhaps it's the knowledge that I can only go out once a day, even though more than that would be unusual. Or maybe it's the beautiful spring day I can see through the window of my mancave.

Went out to the garage earlier to tinker with a bike. It really is nice out there. A walk to my garage involves leaving my back garden, then crossing a communal car parking area shared with other neighbours. But fortunately I didn't encounter any of them.

zoony

Quote from: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 25, 2020, 12:31:58 pmThanks to COVID19 I'm now on Furlough. Wish I'd notice the email telling me about it 2 hours earlier...
Sorry about that mate, but I doubt you'll be the last. Things have been tight at our place for months, I've had no OT, and am probably like a lot of people who just about scrape by from month to month. It's when things like car repairs and services come in that it will be a struggle, so 80% of my wage would see us struggling. I suppose there is always the credit card though, and no doubt better times are just around the corner. It has impacted on pensions though, and my plans to get my tax free lump sum when I hit 55 in June will now have to go on hold. The Toronto and New York trip will just have to wait.

Bez

Quote from: zoony on March 25, 2020, 11:33:40 amA lot better system in operation at the Bridgnorth branch of Sainsburys this morning. They were letting a certain amount in, and then any others were only allowed in when somebody came out. Everyone keeping their distances while queuing for the tills, and to get in. Some shelves were noticeably bare, but we were still able to get a lot of items today that were just not available at the Kidderminster branch on Saturday. Wendy made me wipe my hands and the car steering wheel with antiseptic wipes when we came out, but it's hard to get used to these new measures. We've got to though.
Don't forget the gearstick, handbrake, indicators etc in the car, mate :)
RC1.1 abd g/n 11/0/bcd/tG PeW/- ~600 x 0 61%

Matt2112

Beautiful evening tonight.

I was arriving down the park with the dog when it struck me that, apart from the park being deserted, which was again very welcome but not really unusual, there wasn't a cloud in the sky, nor was there any aircraft, no vapour trails (cue: sound of a few cheering TNMSers), barely a breath of wind, just...serenity.

This lasted a lovely few moments, until the spell was broken by the appearance of a British Airways 747 half an hour into its flight from  Heathrow to Vancouver* and the arrival of another dog-walker.

* Yes, I'm one of those saddoes with a flight tracker app.  ::)
The keys to happiness

rufus the dawg

Quote from: Slim on March 24, 2020, 00:56:54 amNo, rufus. What you say is as wrong as it was last time, and no doubt will be next time. The government may have reacted to new information and circumstances as any government would in an unpredictable and dynamic situation, but it has timed the steps and measures it has taken carefully and properly on all available evidence at the time it was available. It has taken advice from behavioural scientists who know more about their discipline than you do, it has made no u-turns, and I have been extremely impressed by, and grateful for, the government's very assured handling of this crisis.

I think possibly the most frankly ridiculous thing you said there is that the "government announced herd immunity".

You're far more interested in sensationalist guff in the left wing press I know and you won't bother to read the following and actually learn something, but for the benefit of others who might want to understand this a little better, this was Matt Hancock's response to the drivel that was going around over a week ago:


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/health-secretary-matt-hancocks-sunday-telegraph-op-ed

We have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists. Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy. Our goal is to protect life from this virus, our strategy is to protect the most vulnerable and protect the NHS through contain, delay, research and mitigate.

We are working through our clear action plan. Like all our decisions, the plan is based on the bedrock of the science, with maximum transparency. We will do the right thing at the right time, based on the best available science.

To protect life, we must protect the vulnerable, and protect the NHS and flatten the curve.

From the moment coronavirus emerged, we have followed those goals.

We have acted to contain the spread of the virus so far. We have carried out some of the highest number of tests in Europe, our surveillance testing is among the most sophisticated in the world and the UK's plans for the rapid response to and mitigation of the spread of an epidemic are ranked number one above any other country by the Global Health Security Index.

I'm typing this to defend vulnerable people from misinformation in a crisis. Stop doing it.
 Nassim Nicholas Taleb is distinguished professor of risk engineering at New York University's Tandon School of Engineering and author of The Black Swan. Yaneer Bar-Yam is president of the New England Complex System Institute


when, along with applied systems scientist Dr Joe Norman, we first reacted to coronavirus on 25 January with the publication of an academic note urging caution, the virus had reportedly infected fewer than 2,000 people worldwide and fewer than 60 people were dead. That number need not have been so high.
At the time of writing, the numbers are 351,000 and 15,000 respectively. Our research did not use any complicated model with a vast number of variables, no more than someone watching an avalanche heading in their direction calls for complicated statistical models to see if they need to get out of the way.
We called for a simple exercise of the precautionary principle in a domain where it mattered: interconnected complex systems have some attributes that allow some things to cascade out of control, delivering extreme outcomes. Enact robust measures that would have been, at the time, of small cost: constrain mobility. Immediately. Later, we invoked a rapid investment in preparedness: tests, hospital capacity, means to treat patients. Just in case, you know. Things can happen.
The error in the UK is on two levels. Modelling and policymaking.
First, at the modelling level, the government relied at all stages on epidemiological models that were designed to show us roughly what happens when a preselected set of actions are made, and not what we should make happen, and how.
The modellers use hypotheses/assumptions, which they then feed into models, and use to draw conclusions and make policy recommendations. Critically, they do not produce an error rate. What if these assumptions are wrong? Have they been tested? The answer is often no. For academic papers, this is fine. Flawed theories can provoke discussion. Risk management - like wisdom - requires robustness in models.
But if we base our pandemic response plans on flawed academic models, people die. And they will.

This was the case with the disastrous "herd immunity" thesis. The idea behind herd immunity was that the outbreak would stop if enough people got sick and gained immunity. Once a critical mass of young people gained immunity, so the epidemiological modellers told us, vulnerable populations (old and sick people) would be protected. Of course, this idea was nothing more than a dressed-up version of the "just do nothing" approach.

Individuals and scientists around the world immediately pointed out the obvious flaws: there's no way to ensure only young people get infected; you need 60-70% of the population to be infected and recover to have a shot at herd immunity, and there aren't that many young and healthy people in the UK, or anywhere. Moreover, many young people have severe cases of the disease, overloading healthcare systems, and a not-so-small number of them die. It is not a free ride.

This doesn't even include the possibility, already suspected in some cases, of reccurrence of the disease. Immunity may not even be reliable for this virus.

Worse, it did not take into account that the duration of hospitalisation can be lengthier than they think, or that one can incur a shortage of hospital beds.
Second, but more grave, is the policymaking. No 10 appears to be enamoured with "scientism" - things that have the cosmetic attributes of science but without its rigour. This manifests itself in the nudge group that engages in experimenting with UK citizens or applying methods from behavioural economics that fail to work outside the university - yet patronise citizens as an insult to their ancestral wisdom and risk-perception apparatus. Social science is in a "replication crisis", where less than half the results replicate (under exact same conditions), less than a tenth can be taken seriously, and less than a hundredth translate into the real world.

So what is called "evidence-based" methods have a dire track record and are pretty much evidence-free. This scientism also manifests itself in Boris Johnson's chief adviser Dominic Cummings's love of complexity and complex systems (our speciality) which he appears to apply incorrectly. And letting a segment of the population die for the sake of the economy is a false dichotomy - aside from the moral repugnance of the idea.
As we said, when one deals with deep uncertainty, both governance and precaution require us to hedge for the worst. While risk-taking is a business that is left to individuals, collective safety and systemic risk are the business of the state. Failing that mandate of prudence by gambling with the lives of citizens is a professional wrongdoing that extends beyond academic mistake; it is a violation of the ethics of governing.
The obvious policy left now is a lockdown, with overactive testing and contact tracing: follow the evidence from China and South Korea rather than thousands of error-prone computer codes. So we have wasted weeks, and ones that matter with a multiplicative threat.

 Nassim Nicholas Taleb is distinguished professor of risk engineering at New York University's Tandon School of Engineering and author of The Black Swan. Yaneer Bar-Yam is president of the New England Complex System Institute
Bond, Rufus, Dash and Blaize.

rufus the dawg

My eldest step daughter is self isolating. She thinks she's had CV19 because my sister in law is a front line doctor and went through her symptoms. She will go back to school roster next week to cover the kids that can not stay at home because the schools are closed. Shes not been tested.

My youngest step daughter is a speech and language therapist in a hospital and she had to self isolate for a week because she treated a patient with suspected CV19 and she became unwell. She is now back at hospital and she refused to treat CV19 patients because she did not have any PPE. She was then on a stroke ward with people with CV19 and she did have PPE. Shes not been tested

My sister in law is a front line doctor in a hospital and in her early 60s and she been told to expect to get CV19. She is very worried. She says the government have not got a clue what they are doing. And that we should be testing way more.

As you can tell from above my wife is very very worried person.
Bond, Rufus, Dash and Blaize.

Bez

Quote from: rufus the dawg on March 26, 2020, 01:48:35 amMy eldest step daughter is self isolating. She thinks she's had CV19 because my sister in law is a front line doctor and went through her symptoms. She will go back to school roster next week to cover the kids that can not stay at home because the schools are closed. Shes not been tested.

My youngest step daughter is a speech and language therapist in a hospital and she had to self isolate for a week because she treated a patient with suspected CV19 and she became unwell. She is now back at hospital and she refused to treat CV19 patients because she did not have any PPE. She was then on a stroke ward with people with CV19 and she did have PPE. Shes not been tested

My sister in law is a front line doctor in a hospital and in her early 60s and she been told to expect to get CV19. She is very worried. She says the government have not got a clue what they are doing. And that we should be testing way more.

As you can tell from above my wife is very very worried person.
Lack of PPE and testing of front line NHS staff is a real issue.

Government constantly ducking the questions at the daily briefings which implies to me that there's nothing they can do about it due to lack of kit
RC1.1 abd g/n 11/0/bcd/tG PeW/- ~600 x 0 61%

DavidL

Quote from: Bez on March 26, 2020, 08:23:23 amLack of PPE and testing of front line NHS staff is a real issue.

Government constantly ducking the questions at the daily briefings which implies to me that there's nothing they can do about it due to lack of kit
The government's response to lack of equipment and testing kits is woeful. Matt Hancock appears to be lying to try to reassure people whilst covering up the true situation.
Nadhim Zahawi was on Newsnight last night and it was one of the worst performances by a governmemt minister I've ever seen. He could not provide any certainty on deliyery of ventilators. Same with test kits, same with PPE.
You can see it now. Mountains of excess PPE and millions of pounds worth of redundant ventilators sitting in storage at the end of the summer.
People are getting fed up of being told what the government is doing.....it doesn't matter. They want to know what they've DONE! It would be no different with any government, the current crop of politicians just don't posess the skills to steer us through this with confidence.

Nïckslïkk2112

Quote from: rufus the dawg on March 19, 2020, 12:38:59 pmIt is interesting Taiwan have hardly any cases. China have no new cases.
So, that's Taiwan which is determined to keep its borders open, according to today's BBC Coronavirus feed:

QuoteSouth Korea is getting tough on arrivals from overseas and demanding that they download a phone application to track potential symptoms of coronavirus or they will not be granted entry into the country.
Foreigners will also have to abide by the 14-day self-quarantine rule or face deportation.
The government is determined to try to keep its borders open but that comes with an element of risk.
More than half of the reported 100 new Covid-19 cases on Thursday were from international arrivals. All those travelling from Europe are now being tested for coronavirus when they arrive at Incheon International Airport. Stricter entry procedures are also being applied to arrivals from the US.
Even if travellers test negative for the virus, they must spend 14 days in isolation and use the application which is downloaded at the airport to record their symptoms. If they fail to use the app daily, the authorities will track them down.
Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun said there would be a zero-tolerance approach towards those who violated these terms of entry.
Korean nationals could face legal action and foreigners will be expelled from the country.

Meanwhile, in Chesterfield, Police were called to break up a House Party last night.
Legend in my own Mind