The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2019

Started by Slim, May 29, 2019, 16:23:15 pm

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Slim

Kit Malthouse

Author of a compromise Brexit plan that was backed by several ministers, including prominent Brexiteers. Kit is pretty much unheard of outside the Westminster bubble. Only became an MP in 2015, though that was preceded by a long career in local government.

Solid Brexit credentials, voted to Leave in 2016. Wrote a very eloquent and thoughtful piece on the necessity of leaving the EU before the referendum. I like Kit but would assess his chances of success in this contest as very slim, if only because of his relative inexperience and lack of exposure.

DavidL

Quote from: Slim on June 04, 2019, 16:35:32 pmKit Malthouse

Author of a compromise Brexit plan that was backed by several ministers, including prominent Brexiteers. Kit is pretty much unheard of outside the Westminster bubble. Only became an MP in 2015, though that was preceded by a long career in local government.

Solid Brexit credentials, voted to Leave in 2016. Wrote a very eloquent and thoughtful piece on the necessity of leaving the EU before the referendum. I like Kit but would assess his chances of success in this contest as very slim, if only because of his relative inexperience and lack of exposure.
He's gone!

DavidL

Sam Gyimah's idea for a loser's vote is to include three choices:
No Deal
May's Deal
Remain

Just listened to an interview with him on 5Live. Was not pressed on the fact that it clearly splits the Leave vote. Perhaps he will add both Leave options together and then have a run-off for the winner if they beat Remain! Perhaps Remain have to win by a substantial margin(?). If remain wins by a narrow margin it may be best of three.
Clear as mud. I suspect he is a Remainer - no chance of winning.

Slim

Yep, I heard the same interview. Fair's fair though, like he says - he is offering something different. I think I heard him mention that Dominic Grieve is running his campaign, which says a lot really. Dominic narrowly escaped being deselected by his local party a few weeks ago.

Meanwhile, one of the 2010 intake of Conservative MPs has already achieved her ambition of becoming party leader today. Congratulations, Anna!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48515505

Remarkably, Anna tweeted that the Tory party is heading for a "historic split" on the same day that six of her own party's eleven MPs decided to leave and become independents. Shame, because that party was a useful vehicle for binning remainer votes. Not many, but it all helps.

Slim

So: in advance of the official kick-off, the rules have been changed as follows:

  • candidates must have the backing of at least 8 other MPs to stand (previously 2)
  • 5% (17) of the votes are required to survive the first round
  • 10% (33) are required to survive the second.

Previously if I recall correctly, only the lowest-scoring candidate was eliminated in each round. I assume that's still true for the third and subsequent rounds, but the first two rounds should narrow the field quite a bit.

With 13 candidates (now 11) the process would have taken a long time, of course, so this makes sense and I'm sure it will still throw up the same two candidates to be decided by the membership.

There's a chance of course that one of the last two will drop out at that point, like Andrea did last time.

Matt2112

Rory Stewart, who I took at 18/1 before his odds were trimmed, has drifted out to 25/1 - bugger, not a good sign.  

Boris is a clear favourite at 11/10 and looks difficult to oppose, at least from a purely betting perspective.  That said, this is politics, and recent experience might behove us to expect the unexpected.
The keys to happiness

Matt2112

Quote from: Slim on June 02, 2019, 16:53:11 pmNot really - you did tell us the he was a sociopath in unequivocal terms, so it was only reasonable to ask you why at this point, isn't it?

Sloppy James, mixing tenses.  And maybe so, nothing stopping that happening; but it was/is also reasonable to expect things to be addressed in turn.  But whatever.  

QuoteAs for why he was a successful education secretary - I don't want to derail the thread too much, but it's rare for people in that job to bring about actual results, mostly because they aren't prepared to take on the education establishment and the teachers to help the kids. Critically, he made exams more rigorous and he got the Education Reform Act through the commons within 11 weeks of the 2010 General Election. He set higher standards for entry into the teaching profession and gave teachers more power over discipline. He set higher standards for failing schools as well, ensuring that they could be handed over to new management more easily.

Yes, he implemented radical reform swiftly and efficiently enough, which were ultimately so successful he wound up being demoted when the carnage manifesting itself was becoming clear, an inevitable result of his blinkered, ideological zeal.  Looking back, it turns out that actual results remained comparatively static; so all that painful reform for...nothing.  Surrounding himself exclusively with fellow like-minded public school old boys, putting on that disarming veneer in person to those State school professionals he was simultaneously screwing over with a flick of the pen back in the office; yes perhaps "sociopath" is hyperbole on my part I admit, but I've never had the anger of those directly affected by his conviction politics, blithe dismissal of those famously quoted experts and demonstrable lack of empathy, and given his record as Education Secretary the term seems substantially closer to the mark than "successful".

Anyway, he's second favourite at 4/1; seems a bit short that.[/quote]
The keys to happiness

Slim

He might be regarded by some as a compromise candidate but he won't represent the clean break that many in the party will seek, because of his loyalty to Theresa post-Chequers. I do think that he's one of the contenders though. I'd put him in fourth place, behind Johnson, Raab and Hunt. That won't necessarily be reflected in the MP voting rounds, though.

Quite fascinated to read your perspective, so thanks for sharing.

I'd say Gyimah and Harper are most likely to leave on the first round.

Perhaps Stewart, as well. Depends on how his fellow MPs approach the contest. Will some of them vote for a candidate who has no hope of acceptance by the wider party, just to make a point?

The Letter R

I guess we should ask someone from the Murdoch family who they will support then there's a good chance of knowing the winner before the contest has begun.....can't find the cynical emoji.....

Slim

Mark Harper

A former chief whip and immigration minister. Possibly the least well-known candidate, probably best remembered for a lukewarm scandal five years ago involving his cleaner being in the country illegally. Like Javid, from a modest background. Seems to have been a fairly vanilla party loyalist his whole career. Voted to remain in the 2016 referendum, voted against Theresa's bill initially due to concerns about the backstop.

Does seem, to be fair, to respect the referendum result. Holds the default sane position that leaving with a deal is preferable, but leaving without one must be an option. Would assess his chances as rather slim.


Dominic Raab

Impeccable Brexit credentials: voted and campaigned for Leave. Replaced David Davis as Brexit secretary when Theresa unveiled her surrender plan last summer and interestingly, David is supporting him in this contest. Dominic resigned himself a few months later so I'd say his credibility is still intact. Understands the importance of leaving no later than October, deal or no deal.

Quite an assured media performer. Would make a good PM I feel. But I would have thought that Boris offers more to Dominic's potential voters, both in the parliamentary party and the wider party. If Boris were to drop out some reason, and he can be unpredictable of course - Dominic is in with a strong chance. Will be thrilled if either gets the top job.

Matt2112

Interesting observations regarding    Dominic Raab, James; had a look at his odds and he's available at 28/1.  Looks value, particularly as Rory is slightly shorter and looks a less likely winner.  Agree that Boris needs to be taken out of the running somehow, but might have a nibble regardless. :)
The keys to happiness

Slim

Pleased to see Dominic mooting the possibility of proroguing parliament - it may seem a desperate measure, but desperate times do call for them. Good to see that Savid Javid has come out against it; gives them something to argue about.

The dismal, repellent Gina Miller has also had her two penneth about it. Can't help thinking that DR has gained a bit of ground with this one. I believe the People's Remain Speaker of the House of Commons has also stuck his oar in as well. It's all good. The more illiberal self-serving anti-democrats he pisses off, the better.

Slim

And here's a twist! It seems Theresa doesn't think she's quite unpopular enough with the party yet, so she's thinking of staying on as Prime Minister for a bit, if she doesn't quite approve of the new leader.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1137172/Theresa-may-resign-brexit-deal-news-conservative-leadership-contest

Or: the Express has spun a bit of nothing into a clickbait headline. Take your pick.

DavidL

Quote from: Slim on June 07, 2019, 00:58:33 amPleased to see Dominic mooting the possibility of proroguing parliament - it may seem a desperate measure, but desperate times do call for them. Good to see that Savid Javid has come out against it; gives them something to argue about.


Raab was my preferred candidate but now I'm less convinced he's the man. Comedian Matt Forde chaired the private hustings for one group of candidates, including Raab, and apparently he had a bit of a nightmare. Got himself in a bit of a mess when quizzed about gender equality. He's often struggled to appear composed and I think he may not be made of the right stuff. Gove and Hunt are pros at the media stuff.
On the other hand, I've just read an article by The Spectator's Katy Balls. She chaired the other hustings and described how Javid reads Ayn Rand! Who knows, he may own a copy of 2112! Still wouldn't get my vote for the top job. In fact, I'm at a loss to choose any one from this poor selection. For entertainment, it would be the idiotic Boris, just to see what happens at the end of October. My bet is he's already thrown his own banana-skin on the floor.

Matt2112

Boris suddenly odds-on everywhere, looks like he's being lumped on now.  Raab and Rory both drifting along with the rest of the market - except for Hunt (9/1) who is still attracting interest.

Keeping my powder dry as otherwise I haven't a clue what to do really.  ;)
The keys to happiness