The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2019

Started by Slim, May 29, 2019, 16:23:15 pm

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Slim

Yep, it's the thread you've been waiting for - and once again the Tory Party will be choosing your Prime Minister, so it's a fairly interesting topic, I feel. Plus, it will be something of a circular firing squad, so there's something in it for everyone.

Last time as you may remember, Andrea Leadsom dropped out of the last two, so the party at large didn't get to vote and it turned into a coronation. That didn't turn out too well.

That's unlikely to happen this time but I've let my membership lapse, so I won't get a vote either way.

I thought I'd offer a few thoughts on some of the current runners and riders. Interested in other people's thoughts, but it would be nice if you'd keep it good natured. And rational. Who am I kidding?!


Boris Johnson

Massively demonised by the Left like any other successful Conservative politician, a bit of a maverick and prone to the odd gaffe - but a very clever man. Definitely has the common touch and popular appeal. A very effective and popular London mayor.

I'm not 100% convinced that he wouldn't cock up a General Election campaign by stumbling in a confrontational interview, or falling foul of another gaffe. But he has something of Winston Churchill about him - unafraid to be himself, will always speak his mind, won't take any crap from the EU or their quislings and useful idiots over here.

If he gets into the last two - he will win. But will he? He's considerably less popular with the parliamentary party than with the grass roots membership.

Forget about the private prosecution stunt in the news today. It will do nothing but enhance his support among those of us who have grown tired of the antics of the Remainer Flat Earthers.

I'd be proud to call Boris Prime Minister, but actually - I'm not sure he'd be my first choice.


Jeremy Hunt

Another familiar, household name figure, the current Foreign Secretary of course and he served with distinction as Health Secretary in particular.

A year ago I would have said he had a decent shout. But he appears to have ruled out a WTO terms Brexit, and that is not a coherent position. There may be no way to deliver Brexit without it, and there's certainly no way to improve the deal we have at the moment. The membership won't wear that, and nor should they.

Voted to remain at the referendum, and surely the party has learned from its mistakes now.


Rory Stewart

Rory's real name is Roderick. Rod Stewart. I kid you not. From the party's unthinking left, and making a bit of a name for himself on social media as the preferred candidate of people who would never vote Tory. Has flatly ruled out a No Deal while claiming to be committed to deliver Brexit; a circle he would never be able to square.

No discernible charm, charisma or indeed electoral appeal.

Has already declared that he wouldn't serve under Boris, something I think Boris would gladly have told him a long time ago if the question had ever arisen. Rory is the living embodiment of the reason voters like myself deserted the party in huge numbers last Thursday. I suppose he just wants to raise his profile.


James Cleverly

I've followed James for year or two on Twitter and was surprised to see that he'd thrown his hat into the ring. James can claim to have supported Brexit since before the referendum, and is also on record of accepting that no deal is better than a bad deal. But then again, Theresa used to say that, didn't she?

I'm afraid James' chances are fatally tainted by his overt support as a government minister for Theresa's instrument of surrender.



To be continued

döm

Initial thoughts - what an uninspiring bunch - 11 runners and riders in total so far I believe and not a thoroughbred between them.

I'm surprised that so many are going for it at a time when they will be tasked with exiting the UK from Europe and the aftermath.  Whoever takes it is likely to be humbled and humiliated by the process just like May.

It would be fun watching from the sidelines if it was just the Tories being harmed.  Unfortunately its the country as a whole that will suffer as well.
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Matt2112

Whoever wins is highly likely to be less of a danger to the country than Corbyn, so there's that I suppose.
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Slim

Esther McVey

Only a Member of Parliament since 2010 and lost her seat in 2015 before regaining George Osborne's old seat in 2017, but has already held a cabinet position.

A down-to-Earth, feisty woman with strong Brexit credentials - resigned as a government minister over the withdrawal arrangement and has been an active campaigner for the referendum result to be respected. Critically, she supports No Deal. I like her a great deal and would be happy enough if she wins; a prospect though that must be considered unlikely given her relative inexperience. Then again - her media experience could help her in the TV debates and interviews.

Her consistent opposition to same sex marriage troubles me. I can't really defend that, but she's entitled to an opinion that differs from mine and I don't see it as a showstopper. She wouldn't try to stuff the genie back into that particular bottle anyway.


Matt Hancock

Matt is another relatively inexperienced candidate and in my opinion a dull man who represents a sort of continuity from Theresa May, which (also in my opinion) is the absolute last thing that's needed. Has already made a point of speaking out against No Deal and crossed swords with Boris. Like Theresa he voted remain, he doesn't get it, and he won't get the top job either.

I will say that his initiative to tell Nicola Sturgeon she can't have another independence referendum next year has endeared me to him slightly, however.


Michael Gove

I like Michael a great deal. I do. He was the most successful education secretary for decades, and an effective, reforming justice minister. He gave a bravura performance in the Commons a few months ago, one of the most passionate and brilliant parliamentary speeches I can remember.

He was a prominent Leave campaigner during the referendum, of course.

But many party members will distrust him, for two reasons. Firstly, he memorably stabbed Boris in the back just before the last leadership campaign. And secondly, he chose to defend Theresa's deal, rather than disassociate himself from it.

The Left loathe him, which is testimony to his effectiveness as a front bencher. But I don't think he'll get the top job.

to be continued

DavidL

Esther McVey supports ending the scandal of spending £14bn a year overseas and using some of the money on more important things at home - good on'er.

döm

Quote from: DavidL on May 30, 2019, 00:24:31 amEsther McVey supports ending the scandal of spending £14bn a year overseas and using some of the money on more important things at home - good on'er.
That would be ill advised when the UK is looking to forge new trade deals with the rest of the World to replace the ones that came with being a member of the EU.  The last thing it should do is appear insular surely? 
Is Esther really the best the Conservatives have on offer?  I don't think she's good enough for local politics never mind PM!
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Slim

I don't think the overseas development aid budget makes a jot of difference to that. Business has no sentiment for that sort of thing.

Matt2112

Not sure by what metric Hunt the homeopath and Gove the sociopath can be considered highly successful in their respective former positions purportedly in charge of health and education; the actual professionals on the ground must have missed that one.  Chronic Dunning-Kruger perhaps.
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Bisto

Quote from: Matt2112 on May 30, 2019, 13:46:06 pmNot sure by what metric Hunt the homeopath and Gove the sociopath can be considered highly successful in their respective former positions purportedly in charge of health and education; the actual professionals on the ground must have missed that one.  Chronic Dunning-Kruger perhaps.
I shall possibly regret asking this, but in what way is Gove a "Sociopath?"
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Matt2112

Quote from: Bisto on May 30, 2019, 14:13:18 pmI shall possibly regret asking this, but in what way is Gove a "Sociopath?"
Maybe ask the hordes of ex-teaching professionals who quit under his tenure. :)
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döm

Quote from: Slim on May 30, 2019, 11:41:31 amI don't think the overseas development aid budget makes a jot of difference to that. Business has no sentiment for that sort of thing.
It's all business - even aid, can make a big difference.
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döm

i'm warming to Rody (Rod  ;D ) Stewart. Cutting through the no deal BS with aplomb...


https://twitter.com/i/status/1134020453897515008
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Matt2112

All the political debate aside, I think Rory is a decent punt at 16/1.
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DavidL

May 30, 2019, 20:18:25 pm #13 Last Edit: May 30, 2019, 20:20:42 pm by DavidL
Quote from: Matt2112 on May 30, 2019, 19:00:41 pmAll the political debate aside, I think Rory is a decent punt at 16/1.
He of the riduiculously oversized shirt cuffs? Nah, he's got no faith in the UK . Probably not too important, but it looks like he's borrowed his suit for a court appearance.

Chris Quartly

Quote from: döm on May 30, 2019, 16:16:52 pmi'm warming to Rody (Rod  ;D ) Stewart. Cutting through the no deal BS with aplomb...


https://twitter.com/i/status/1134020453897515008
Unfortunate facts like the ones he makes in his argument don't seem to pose much care to those who want no-deal...
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