Brexit watch

Started by Nick, October 20, 2016, 17:02:39 pm

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döm and 5 Guests are viewing this topic.

Slim

He is a brilliant man, the most accomplished and successful politician in modern times, and the political figure who has made the single greatest positive difference since Mrs Thatcher. I just wish that the Conservative Party could have come to a closer accommodation with him these last few years.

Richard_2112

Quote from: Slim on March 15, 2017, 17:26:36 pm
He is a brilliant man, the most accomplished and successful politician in modern times

Whilst never once actually holding any political office in the UK Parliament - ah well that's democracy for you...
Over thinking, over analyzing separates the body from the mind. Withering my intuition, missing opportunities and I must feed my will to feel my moment drawing way outside the lines.

Richard_2112

Interesting to see Sturgeon is making a case for indyref2.

If she gets her way, and Scotland holds a second referendum on independence before the UK leave the EU, Theresa May will be forced to do the following:

On the one hand, she will have to warn voters that to leave a longstanding union with their country's most important trading partners would be an act of economic self-harm. In fact, it would be a disaster. Anyone who tells them otherwise, the Prime Minister must argue, is not living in the real world.

While on the other hand, she will simultaneously have to reassure voters that to leave a longstanding union with their country's most important trading partners will not be an act of economic self-harm. In fact, it will be a success. Anyone who tells them otherwise, the Prime Minister must argue, is engaged in baseless scaremongering.

Mrs May (and Fox, Davis, Johnson and Gove for that matter) have 18 months to work out how best to phrase all this. Wonder what they'll come up with...?
Over thinking, over analyzing separates the body from the mind. Withering my intuition, missing opportunities and I must feed my will to feel my moment drawing way outside the lines.

DavidL

March 15, 2017, 22:24:42 pm #813 Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 23:18:16 pm by DavidL
Quote from: Richard_2112 on March 15, 2017, 21:55:07 pm
Whilst never once actually holding any political office in the UK Parliament - ah well that's democracy for you...
Yes, the fact that Sir Nigel played such a huge role in securing one of the most era-defining political acts in the history of the UK, without a parliamentary seat, makes him all the more remarkable.

DavidL

Quote from: Richard_2112 on March 15, 2017, 22:11:07 pm
Interesting to see Sturgeon is making a case for indyref2.

If she gets her way, and Scotland holds a second referendum on independence before the UK leave the EU, Theresa May will be forced to do the following:

On the one hand, she will have to warn voters that to leave a longstanding union with their country's most important trading partners would be an act of economic self-harm. In fact, it would be a disaster. Anyone who tells them otherwise, the Prime Minister must argue, is not living in the real world.

While on the other hand, she will simultaneously have to reassure voters that to leave a longstanding union with their country's most important trading partners will not be an act of economic self-harm. In fact, it will be a success. Anyone who tells them otherwise, the Prime Minister must argue, is engaged in baseless scaremongering.

Mrs May (and Fox, Davis, Johnson and Gove for that matter) have 18 months to work out how best to phrase all this. Wonder what they'll come up with...?
Have a cigar, young man  ;)

Slim

March 15, 2017, 23:07:02 pm #815 Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 23:12:16 pm by Slim
Quote from: Richard_2112 on March 15, 2017, 22:11:07 pm
Interesting to see Sturgeon is making a case for indyref2.

If she gets her way, and Scotland holds a second referendum on independence before the UK leave the EU, Theresa May will be forced to do the following:

On the one hand, she will have to warn voters that to leave a longstanding union with their country's most important trading partners would be an act of economic self-harm. In fact, it would be a disaster. Anyone who tells them otherwise, the Prime Minister must argue, is not living in the real world.

While on the other hand, she will simultaneously have to reassure voters that to leave a longstanding union with their country's most important trading partners will not be an act of economic self-harm. In fact, it will be a success. Anyone who tells them otherwise, the Prime Minister must argue, is engaged in baseless scaremongering.

Mrs May (and Fox, Davis, Johnson and Gove for that matter) have 18 months to work out how best to phrase all this. Wonder what they'll come up with...?


Good try Richard but remember:  it wasn't Thersa's idea to have the EU referendum, and she didn't vote to leave either (opinions differ on that point, I know). She's simply doing the decent thing and recognising the result. I don't recall her ever saying that the UK would be better off out of the EU. So actually, her own position is consistent.

Even so it's not really a legitimate comparison - the ties that bind the union with Scotland, Wales and NI are deeply rooted in history in a way that relations between the EU countries never would have been.

And in any case the economic factors are dramatically different, most conspicuously because Scotland will be in neither single market if it leaves the UK. And Scotland has a financial security in the UK that the UK didn't have in the EU. It can't independently go bust or have its very own recession, without actually being independent. Its financial affairs are underwritten by the UK treasury.

Finally, they have more than 18 months. I do believe that the government will permit a second Independence referendum, but not before Brexit is done and dusted. Organising referenda is not one of the Scottish government's devolved powers, and Nicola actually has no mandate for one whatever.

Slim

Quote from: Richard_2112 on March 15, 2017, 21:55:07 pm
Whilst never once actually holding any political office in the UK Parliament - ah well that's democracy for you...


It is indeed - other figures who have brought about massive political and social change include Martin Luther King and Mahatma Ghandi. Like Nigel, they persuaded large numbers of people to support their cause through peaceful means without ever being elected to political office.

NeilP

March 15, 2017, 23:26:12 pm #817 Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 23:29:28 pm by NeilP

Robert Preston on the U turn.....



"This has been a mega shambles budget - worse than Osborne's notorious omni shambles.

Because the judgement at the centre of it, that a manifesto-breaching rise in National Insurance would fund £2.4bn of emergency support for social care for the elderly, has imploded.

The fall out has been briefing and counterbriefing by the Treasury and Number 10 - about who was to blame. It's messy and unpleasant.

And although the prime minister is damaged by the charge that she should have seen that her MPs would not wear the tax rise, under the British system budgets belong to Chancellors.

At the nub of the issue is why Hammond and the Treasury under-estimated the gravity of breaking such an unambiguous election promise.

What is striking is that one of the most influential figures in the party praised the PM for acting decisively to lance the boil. And it speaks volume that neither he nor any other Tory MP to whom I've spoken has tried to defend Hammond.

As for the Prime Minister's Official Spokesman, his statement that she has "full confidence in the Chancellor" is a formula often taken as a nod to the inhabitant of Number 11 that his tenancy is almost up.

Trust has seriously broken down between the two centres of authority in the government.

Philip Hammond is seriously weakened, perhaps fatally so.

Senior Tories, including ministers, are openly talking about who could and should replace him - and not just because of the budget debacle but because they also see him and Treasury officials as obstacles to the kind of so-called clean Brexit they want.

So as I said on ITV's Evening News, I would not wager vast sums on Hammond remaining as Chancellor beyond the summer."



The point about Brexit is well made - is the process now set to lose its lone "voice of reason"?

DavidL

Hammond should be replaced by a chancellor that fully embraces Brexit

Nïckslïkk2112

And politicians  who renege on manifesto pledges should come as no surprise to anyone but the terminally naive.
Anyway, he was never elected Chancellor...
Legend in my own Mind


NeilP

there were plenty of MP's put before the cameras last week to defend the decision

döm

Good to see the UK government is  doing all the necessary research as it prepares for  Brexit


You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

Slim

Quote from: NeilP on March 15, 2017, 23:26:12 pm
Robert Preston on the U turn.....



Simple anti-Conservative propaganda. And to be fair, it's the media and the Conservative backbenches who are the opposition these days, so he probably feels a duty to try to undermine the government.

More realistically the reversal of a single budget initiative is nothing like the media's "omnishambles" of a few years ago, and as you'll recall, that didn't do much harm. Finally - many voices of reason are available to the Brexit process, most conspicuously Liam Fox and David Davis.

Slim

Quote from: döm on March 16, 2017, 09:38:28 am
Good to see the UK government is  doing all the necessary research as it prepares for  Brexit


There's only so much "research" you can do into a deal that has yet to be negotiated, let alone agreed upon.

döm

Quote from: Slim on March 16, 2017, 10:35:32 am
There's only so much "research" you can do into a deal that has yet to be negotiated, let alone agreed upon.



True,  and that's what makes the 2 year timescale so utterly ridiculous!
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!