Brexit watch

Started by Nick, October 20, 2016, 18:02:39 pm

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Matt2112

Quote from: döm on February 22, 2017, 11:20:44 am

That's sure to placate the large numbers of people who believed they were voting to stop immigration from Europe.  What is Brexit again ?  :)



They voted to prevent immigration from Europe of all and sundry, not those who can genuinely contribute. 


It's dismaying to see how it's easy to throw strawman arguments around when Remainers and Brexiters talk past each other.  Time we all got over these sort of moot discussions and got on with dealing with the prevailing decision.
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döm

Quote from: Matt2112 on February 22, 2017, 11:36:26 am

They voted to prevent immigration from Europe of all and sundry, not those who can genuinely contribute. 


It's dismaying to see how it's easy to throw strawman arguments around when Remainers and Brexiters talk past each other.  Time we all got over these sort of moot discussions and got on with dealing with the prevailing decision.

I thought that was already in place.  Did Cameron not get a deal prior to the referendum limiting social welfare payments for newly arrived immigrants from Europe?
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

DavidL

Quote from: döm on February 22, 2017, 09:35:25 am
So David Davis has bizarrely indicated that the UK will continue to allow the free movement of Labour from the EU post brexit, including low skilled workers.


You have to ask what's the point of it all?
The point here is that the decision to allow this situation will be taken by a UK (elected) government. I made the point a while back that a compromise may be reached whereby those with guaranteed work placements will still be allowed to come to the UK.
The point is, who has the control over immigaration. If the party in government is deemed by the majority of the electorate to be allowing too much inward migration, they can be replaced by another that stands on a manifesto promise of reducing it. That choice is what the majority of the population would like.

DavidL

Quote from: döm on February 22, 2017, 11:51:15 am
I thought that was already in place.  Did Cameron not get a deal prior to the referendum limiting social welfare payments for newly arrived immigrants from Europe?
He may have done but that would have been implemented as a condition of the UK remaining a member of the EU. That 'concession' was/is a long way from handing control of EU migration to the UK government which, hopefully, leaving the EU will secure.

döm

Quote from: DavidL on February 22, 2017, 14:50:29 pm
The point here is that the decision to allow this situation will be taken by a UK (elected) government. I made the point a while back that a compromise may be reached whereby those with guaranteed work placements will still be allowed to come to the UK.
The point is, who has the control over immigaration. If the party in government is deemed by the majority of the electorate to be allowing too much inward migration, they can be replaced by another that stands on a manifesto promise of reducing it. That choice is what the majority of the population would like.



yes that was 100% the message that was being delivered pre the Brexit referendum.


Vote to leave - we won't actually stop immigration from Europe but we're the ones making that decision not the EU.
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

döm

Quote from: DavidL on February 22, 2017, 15:01:02 pm
He may have done but that would have been implemented as a condition of the UK remaining a member of the EU. That 'concession' was/is a long way from handing control of EU migration to the UK government which, hopefully, leaving the EU will secure.



With no material difference.  What was the point ?
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

DavidL

February 23, 2017, 14:47:54 pm #666 Last Edit: February 23, 2017, 15:17:02 pm by DavidL
GDP figures for last quarter of 2016 exceeded ONS expectations. Export volumes increased as imports fell adding 1.3% to GDP, the biggest contribution from this source for six years.
Despite the gloomy predictions, the vote to leave the EU appears to have boosted the economy not weakened it. It's pretty much irrefutable now that the prophesying from the Remain campaign of immediate and profound economic damage was bullshit.

Bisto

Quote from: DavidL on February 23, 2017, 14:47:54 pm
GDP figures for last quarter of 2016 exceeded ONS expectations. Export volumes increased as imports fell adding 1.3% to GDP, the biggest contribution from this source for six years.
Despite the gloomy predictions, the vote to leave the EU appears to have boosted the economy not weakened it. It's pretty much irrefutable now that the prophesying from the Remain campaign of immediate and profound economic damage was bullshit.



Thats quite a statement, considering the fact that we haven't left the EU yet, all we've had is a vote. We're in unchartered waters...companies, financial institutions, entrepeneurs, trading partners etc. are all hedging their bets until they can see which way the post Brexit land lies. What may well turn out to be bad for the UK economy and its citizens isn't necessarily all bad for big business, who won't give a rat's arse what happens to Joe Public as long as they can turn a massive profit and  continue to weasel their way out of paying their full UK tax liabilities.
No good deed goes unpunished!

No amount of anxiety can change the future. No amount of regret can change the past.

DavidL

Quote from: Bisto on February 23, 2017, 16:18:32 pm

Thats quite a statement, considering the fact that we haven't left the EU yet, all we've had is a vote. We're in unchartered waters...companies, financial institutions, entrepeneurs, trading partners etc. are all hedging their bets until they can see which way the post Brexit land lies. What may well turn out to be bad for the UK economy and its citizens isn't necessarily all bad for big business, who won't give a rat's arse what happens to Joe Public as long as they can turn a massive profit and  continue to weasel their way out of paying their full UK tax liabilities.
It's a true and factual statement. We were never  going to leave the EU on June 24th.

döm

Quote from: DavidL on February 23, 2017, 17:11:17 pm
It's a true and factual statement. We were never  going to leave the EU on June 24th.



Yes to be fair to you David, you have consistently been making the point that there were people on the remain side of the argument who claimed that there would be an immediate negative impact to the UK economy if the majority voted to leave.  That hasn't happened.  We'll just have to wait and see the real impact to people's lives by leaving the EU as it gets closer and of course when it finally happens.




But will we ever know for sure ?  Unfortunately we can't skip to a parallel universe to see how the UK would be coping while still being a member of the EU. No control experiment will ever be able to show us.
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

NeilP


DavidL

Quote from: döm on February 23, 2017, 17:24:58 pm

Yes to be fair to you David, you have consistently been making the point that there were people on the remain side of the argument who claimed that there would be an immediate negative impact to the UK economy if the majority voted to leave.  That hasn't happened.  We'll just have to wait and see the real impact to people's lives by leaving the EU as it gets closer and of course when it finally happens.




But will we ever know for sure ?  Unfortunately we can't skip to a parallel universe to see how the UK would be coping while still being a member of the EU. No control experiment will ever be able to show us.
Exactly right. The economy could indeed end up going down the tubes when we leave, before we leave or at some point after we leave. Normal economic cycles have always fluctuated between boom and bust. In the years ahead those two extremes will surely be affected to a lesser or greater degree by our leaving the EU. The only thing we can measure in the future is the performance of the UK economy against those (stronger) economies left in the bloc.
There are rarely any predictable certainties with economics - Roll the bones.

DavidL

February 23, 2017, 23:34:18 pm #672 Last Edit: February 23, 2017, 23:48:32 pm by DavidL
Quote from: NeilP on February 23, 2017, 17:39:43 pm
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/brexit-rise-superliar/
Remoaner
May was more interested in showing support for her leader than going against him. After all a Remain win was a certainty (so much so that the government did no preparation for a Leave win). She was probably always a Leaver that chose Remain for political expediency, hence her reluctance to take much of a role in the campaign. Despicable and quite natural behaviour for a politician.

Slim

I don't have access to see that Spectator article unfortunately, but until I'd seen David's reply would strongly have expected any piece referring to Brexit centred around the term "superliar" to refer to the crass dishonesty and very conspicuous hypocrisy of those making excuses to defy the people's will in the wake of a referendum result they didn't like.

Bisto

February 24, 2017, 14:49:48 pm #674 Last Edit: February 25, 2017, 17:47:12 pm by Bisto
Thanks for the link Neil...here it is in full
rise of the superliar
Nick Cohen
For an exercise in popular sovereignty, which was meant to take decisions away from the hated 'elite', the Brexit referendum has, inevitably,  produced Britain's greatest outbreak of political lying. Yesterday's liars look pale and wan in comparison with the latest models. It is as if the long-awaited singularity has occurred. But rather than advances in technology creating a new species of artificialsuperintelligence , the advance of plebiscitary politics has created a new species of artificial superliar.
The liars of the past were often furtive figures. Like the man who has staggered home at 3 a.m. and tried to explain away the beer on his breath and lipstick on his collar, you did not know whether to shout at them or laugh at them for insulting your intelligence.  There is nothing sneaky about the superliars. They do not try to hide the fact that they are lying. These are open liars, self-confessed liars, out-loud-and-proud liars, who demand and expect praise for lying in the name of 'the people'.
When they were not being furtive, the liars of the past were often petty. They would lie about little things. The politician pretending the increase in spending was an increase in real terms rather than cash terms. The worker assuring his boss he had been working on a project he had not even begun. The superliars scorn such minor mendacity. They lie about the great issues of our age; about policies with predictable and unforeseen consequences that may hurt us for decades
The greatest liar is our prime minister, as constitutional precedence dictates. Theresa May opposed taking Britain out of the EU for the good reasons that Brexit will destroy jobs, cut the tax base and leave us isolated.'I think the economic arguments are clear,' she told Goldman Sachs during the referendum campaign. 'I think being part of a 500-million trading bloc is significant for us. I think, as I was saying to you a little earlier, that one of the issues is that a lot of people will invest here in the UK because it is the UK in Europe.'Now she is loudly and proudly following a policy she does not believe in, and following the most extreme version of that policy anyone can imagine.
Far from being denounced as a cynic, and May provides the perfect picture of political cynicism in action, the superliar is applauded. The right and increasingly alt- and, indeed, far-right wing press applaud her, naturally, for she is doing their bidding. Centrist journalists applaud her too, because they have a bias that is rarely recognised: a bias towards power. This is not the same as power worship, and has nothing in common with the partisan adoration a propagandist shows for his masters and mistresses.  It is just how journalists, civil servants and everyone who wants to influence government behaves when there is no opposition or prospect of an opposition that might win for as far ahead as anyone can see. What is the point of criticising the government when it can win a landslide any day it chooses to call an election? An embattled prime minister with an opposition ready for power faces scrutiny. The ruler of a de facto one-party state is indulged.
For all the slack polite society cuts her, May meets my two criteria for a superliar.There is nothing furtive about her. She voted to keep Britain in the EU, and is now out, loud and proud in her determination to take us out of the EU. She doesn't apologise or explain her U-turn, but proudly boasts she is acting against her better instincts in the name of 'the people'.Removing us not just from the EU but from the single market and the customs union as well is anything but trivial. It will have vast consequences, as no less an authority than Mrs May warned. (See above.)It is as if Tony Blair had taken us into war with Saddam Hussein while believing the best course was keeping him in power, or Winston Churchill had fought World War II while all the time thinking that the appeasers were right.
We are in an incredible position. All the more incredible because Mrs May is not alone, but a perfidious primus inter pares. Her Chancellor wants Britain to stay in the EU, but voted for Britain to leave the EU. A majority of the MPs who voted alongside him to enact Article 50 also want Britain to stay in the EU, as does a majority of peers who are about to give approval for Britain to leave the EU. I argued at the time of the referendum campaign that the current Foreign Secretary was no different. He, I believed, thought Britain should stay in the EU and was supporting the leave campaign only because it was the smart move to advance his career. I accept I may have been wrong. Boris Johnson may not be a lying opportunist but an authentic idiot.  Even if he is, it does not mean that the men and women who advocated Brexit and are now implementing Brexit are not caught up in lies of their own.
You cannot generalise about why 17 million people voted to leave. But no one but a fool pretends that concerns about immigration did not push leave over the line. Theresa May has confirmed as much by putting controlling immigration above the nation's prosperity. For all the apparent clarity on this point, David Davis, a rare  British politician, who is not only taking Britain out of the EU but actually believes it is right to take Britain out of the EU, told east Europeans that Britain would not slam the doors on them. He must have been telling the truth, because large numbers of businesses could not cope without migrant labour. His one difficulty is that neither he nor his colleagues in Vote Leave made this honest admission during the referendum campaign. The attackson him from Aaron Banks and Iain Duncan Smith are a taste of a future when the Right and far Right will be able to claim that 'the People' have been stabbed in the back as Brexit brings no obvious diminution of the number of foreigners in Britain.
Then there were all the promises on the economy. What happens if they turn out to be so much nonsense?  I think they will. I think setting Britain on a vast and vastly complicated course is bound to lead to suffering.  I know for a fact that there has been no preparation for hardship. It is not just that Gove, Johnson and Farage sold 52 per cent of the electorate a fairy story during the Brexit campaign. The remainer-turned-leaver Theresa May continues to sell it now.
Today's politicians are the opposite of Churchillian leaders. They do not warn of blood, sweat toil and tears ahead. Instead they tell the oldCosmopolitan lie that we can have it all. What if we can't?  For we never can. At the moment no thinker is more unfashionable than Edmund Burke. The notion that MPs must follow their consciences and speak their minds is dismissed by respectable opinion on right, left and centre. Everyone from Theresa May down must suppress their doubts, blot out intelligent thought, and vote for a policy they believe to be against the national interest, all so they can be the delegates rather than the representatives of 'the people'.
I do not believe this complicity with political mendacity can last. What will 'the people' say when they find that all it can have is minimal restrictions on immigration, a declining economy and the most godawful mess? They might blame themselves. But my guess is that they will turn Burkean and turn to the superliars now in power and say 'you lied to us'.
No good deed goes unpunished!

No amount of anxiety can change the future. No amount of regret can change the past.