Brexit watch

Started by Nick, October 20, 2016, 18:02:39 pm

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Moving Target

Quote from: Nïckslïkk2112 on January 21, 2017, 22:29:38 pm
tl;dr

It hasn't turned its back on the world. Any fule kno that. It just doesn't want to belong to a Euro "Project" within a world which is radically different to when the Euro "Project" was set in motion. It's like some sort of Hari Seldon foundation which is set on making things worse rather than better.
As for lying politicians: How do you know if a Politician is lying? His lips move.
If Britain has turned its back on the world how come the Crims and the Kiwis are wanting to get more involved with us? That can only be a good thing, their wine is better than the French and if we can get it more cheaply then win, win!

And finally Cyril, what bit of "Democracy" don't the 48% understand?


Hmm, as Clegg said on BBC this morning, doubling of our trade with the Anglosphere (USA, Canada, Caribbean, AUS, NZ, India) will not offset our losses in trade with the EU.  We have to do better than that.

DavidL

Quote from: Moving Target on January 22, 2017, 17:06:23 pm
Hmm, as Clegg said on BBC this morning, doubling of our trade with the Anglosphere (USA, Canada, Caribbean, AUS, NZ, India) will not offset our losses in trade with the EU.  We have to do better than that.
Clegg
(( ;D ))

Nick

Quote from: Moving Target on January 22, 2017, 17:06:23 pm
Hmm, as Clegg said on BBC this morning, doubling of our trade with the Anglosphere (USA, Canada, Caribbean, AUS, NZ, India) will not offset our losses in trade with the EU.  We have to do better than that.



All this theoretical new trade outside the EU involves huge extra shipping costs air/sea, plus customs clearance etc, compared with sending a van through the tunnel. All this comes at a competitive cost, it's amazing people can't see the wood for the trees.
Everybody's got to evalate from the norm.

Slim

I wonder how we ever survived before we joined the EU in 1973. I suppose we lived in caves and ate grass and berries.

Nick

January 22, 2017, 20:05:12 pm #514 Last Edit: January 22, 2017, 21:22:14 pm by Nick
Quote from: Slim on January 22, 2017, 19:38:23 pm
I wonder how we ever survived before we joined the EU in 1973. I suppose we lived in caves and ate grass and berries.



The world has moved on a tad since 73, China wasn't even on the radar back then as a manufacturing force. Surely you cannot be looking back into history in an attempt to see how trade in the future may play out, what next, trading Etruscan vases?
Everybody's got to evalate from the norm.

NeilP

I am starting to see a glimmer of a plan here. I'm not sure whether it is a mirage, born of wishful thinking on my part, or whether TM et al actually do have a cunning plan. At the moment, I suspect the former, but hope for the latter.

The plan being that, as has been said many times, a hard Brexit would likely be bad for the UK, but arguably worse for the EU. So by taking what the EU has been saying about the single market being non-negotiable and turning this into 'Brexit means hard Brexit' TM is effectively saying 'This will hurt us, but it will hurt you more'. There are fault lines across the EU at the moment, and the prospect of further damage in consequence of Brexit (any Brexit) may cause those fault lines to open further, so that the EU is forced into a recognition that the only way to keep it together is some fundamental reform.

It does seem to me that the only way the EU will ever acknowledge the need for that reform is when it can no longer deny it. So this plan, such as it is, might be the way to bring it about. If so, and faced with a genuinely reforming EU and the inevitable harm from a hard Brexit, there could conceivably be a sound political rationale for not proceeding with Brexit after all. ::)

Nick

Let's hope that's the plan.
Everybody's got to evalate from the norm.

Nïckslïkk2112

There's no plan :)

Apart from the one hatched by the Eurocrats to hasten the exit of the UK from the EU as we were the biggest handbrake on increased federalisation. Cunning lot these Eurocrats....
Legend in my own Mind


Moving Target

Quote from: Nick on January 22, 2017, 19:23:56 pm

All this theoretical new trade outside the EU involves huge extra shipping costs air/sea, plus customs clearance etc, compared with sending a van through the tunnel. All this comes at a competitive cost, it's amazing people can't see the wood for the trees.



One benefit is that the docks on the Mersey and the Tyne will open up again, generating more jobs and maybe we will even build ships. 


But break of bulk costs will still be there, as you say.  Easier to sell to the continent we are part of, than others oceans away.


We have to do something about the passporting issue, else the merchant bankers will up sticks and head to Paris.

Nick

The only thing we are likely to be shipping back is empty containers to China.
Everybody's got to evalate from the norm.

Slim

Quote from: NeilP on January 22, 2017, 21:08:29 pm
I am starting to see a glimmer of a plan here. I'm not sure whether it is a mirage, born of wishful thinking on my part, or whether TM et al actually do have a cunning plan. At the moment, I suspect the former, but hope for the latter.

The plan being that, as has been said many times, a hard Brexit would likely be bad for the UK, but arguably worse for the EU. So by taking what the EU has been saying about the single market being non-negotiable and turning this into 'Brexit means hard Brexit' TM is effectively saying 'This will hurt us, but it will hurt you more'. There are fault lines across the EU at the moment, and the prospect of further damage in consequence of Brexit (any Brexit) may cause those fault lines to open further, so that the EU is forced into a recognition that the only way to keep it together is some fundamental reform.

It does seem to me that the only way the EU will ever acknowledge the need for that reform is when it can no longer deny it. So this plan, such as it is, might be the way to bring it about. If so, and faced with a genuinely reforming EU and the inevitable harm from a hard Brexit, there could conceivably be a sound political rationale for not proceeding with Brexit after all. ::)


This flight of fancy rests on the assumptions that a "hard" (ie clean, normal) Brexit is probably bad for the UK and further that the government would be prepared to defy the people's will, despite having giving assurances that it won't. Sounds like a fun plot for an intriguing political novel, but a non-starter in real life.

Slim

Quote from: Nick on January 22, 2017, 20:05:12 pm

The world has moved on a tad since 73, China wasn't even on the radar back then as a manufacturing force. Surely you cannot be looking back into history in an attempt to see how trade in the future may play out, what next, trading Etruscan vases?


And yet - somehow most of the world's countries sustain themselves without either being a member of the EU, or trading predominantly in Etruscan vases. Puzzling.

döm

Quote from: Slim on January 24, 2017, 00:11:52 am
And yet - somehow most of the world's countries sustain themselves without either being a member of the EU, or trading predominantly in Etruscan vases. Puzzling.



In general though countries realise how interdependent they are on each other and the general rule is to reduce barriers to trade. This looks like it is being reversed by Brexit and the mad man in the White House. Neither is good news for the World economy.
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

Moving Target

Quote from: Nick on January 22, 2017, 20:05:12 pm

The world has moved on a tad since 73, China wasn't even on the radar back then as a manufacturing force.


India too.  Also, pre-1973 we made a lot more manufactured goods than we do now.  We rely heavily on the City.  My feeling is that we should be in a big bloc for protection against these emergent economies.  We are still good at making things like tractors and advanced weapons so perhaps the Government should subsidise these industries, giving them a chance to expand to meet what we hope will be demand from thoutside the EU.

Nick

Quote from: Slim on January 24, 2017, 00:11:52 am
And yet - somehow most of the world's countries sustain themselves without either being a member of the EU, or trading predominantly in Etruscan vases. Puzzling.


Don't forget many of these countries also exist in trade blocs, ie Mercosor, NAFTA, EFTA, Caricom, etc etc, there are many differing types but all assist with trade between members. Countries as large as China is almost a trade block by default. So there are very few Countries that exist outside of trade blocs.
Everybody's got to evalate from the norm.