Brexit watch

Started by Nick, October 20, 2016, 17:02:39 pm

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 5 Guests are viewing this topic.

döm

Quote from: Slim on January 17, 2017, 12:12:06 pm
And Theresa has just made this very point in her speech! Superb.



And to replace it she wants to have her cake and eat it.  We'll see how that works.
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

DavidL

Quote from: döm on January 17, 2017, 12:16:57 pm

And to replace it she wants to have her cake and eat it.  We'll see how that works.
Yes and we will also see if the EU are happy to eat a smaller slice of cake.....or not.

Slim

Looks like Parliament won't be able to frustrate the people's will after all. The Commons will vote on whatever deal is reached, but if it rejects it - we won't be staying in the EU. We'll simply leave the EU with no deal.

Quite encouraged, I must say.

DavidL

Quote from: Slim on January 17, 2017, 12:44:14 pm
Looks like Parliament won't be able to frustrate the people's will after all. The Commons will vote on whatever deal is reached, but if it rejects it - we won't be staying in the EU. We'll simply leave the EU with no deal.

Quite encouraged, I must say.
Yes, deal or no deal, we'll be out of the EU - hurrah!

Slim

Interestingly the £ climbed a dollar point or two during and immediately following the speech.

DavidL

Sterling up over 2.5% against dollar

döm

Quote from: DavidL on January 17, 2017, 12:55:56 pm
Sterling up over 2.5% against dollar



happy with her half in half  out statements on the EU & Customs Union ?
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

DavidL

Quote from: döm on January 17, 2017, 13:00:32 pm

happy with her half in half  out statements on the EU & Customs Union ?
In my opinion, she said the right things (at the moment the currency markets agree). We are leaving the EU, the single market and the customs union. During negotiations the government will attempt to secure tariff-free access to the single market and agree a new relationship with regard the customs union. If no agreement along those lines can be agreed, the UK will trade with the EU along WTO lines which will be more punitive for the EU than the UK, in fact, based on current trade, the UK would collect £12.3bn per year and our exporters (to the EU) would pay £6.5bn. In effect UK exporters coulkd be compensated by the UK government to eliminate any extra costs. The EU are between a rock and a hard place.

döm

Quote from: DavidL on January 17, 2017, 14:03:22 pm
In my opinion, she said the right things (at the moment the currency markets agree). We are leaving the EU, the single market and the customs union. During negotiations the government will attempt to secure tariff-free access to the single market and agree a new relationship with regard the customs union. If no agreement along those lines can be agreed, the UK will trade with the EU along WTO lines which will be more punitive for the EU than the UK, in fact, based on current trade, the UK would collect £12.3bn per year and our exporters (to the EU) would pay £6.5bn. In effect UK exporters coulkd be compensated by the UK government to eliminate any extra costs. The EU are between a rock and a hard place.



I really don't see that.  The EU is so much larger than the UK so the pain will be shared across a much larger population. And who will be paying the 12.3 billion.  UK consumers I would have thought ?


Of course this is not ideal for the EU and it has a major decision to take.  If it gives May the kind of deal she wants then the EU as an organisation is under threat. Other countries will see that the UK is able to benefit from certain aspects of the Single market without having to put up with its difficulties and also benefiting from the free trade within the customs union without having to accept the universal tariffs for countries not part of the customs union. Other EU countries may feel that this kind of deal suits them too.


So is it prepared to suffer a degree of pain financially to preserve the integrity of the EU  or will it decide to give in to all the demands of May and threaten its survival ?
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

DavidL

Quote from: döm on January 17, 2017, 14:19:42 pm

I really don't see that.  The EU is so much larger than the UK so the pain will be shared across a much larger population. And who will be paying the 12.3 billion.  UK consumers I would have thought ?


Of course this is not ideal for the EU and it has a major decision to take.  If it gives May the kind of deal she wants then the EU as an organisation is under threat. Other countries will see that the UK is able to benefit from certain aspects of the Single market without having to put up with its difficulties and also benefiting from the free trade within the customs union without having to accept the universal tariffs for countries not part of the customs union. Other EU countries may feel that this kind of deal suits them too.


So is it prepared to suffer a degree of pain financially to preserve the integrity of the EU  or will it decide to give in to all the demands of May and threaten its survival ?
Interesting times, no doubt. I think as time goes by, the EU is increasingly trying to preserve itself against the wishes of a greater number of its citizens, ultimately it will fail or face huge reform. A definite watershed moment (or two years!)

döm

Quote from: DavidL on January 17, 2017, 14:33:27 pm
Interesting times, no doubt. I think as time goes by, the EU is increasingly trying to preserve itself against the wishes of a greater number of its citizens, ultimately it will fail or face huge reform. A definite watershed moment (or two years!)



Perhaps the UK will be like the canary in the coal mine for the rest of the EU.  Prosper and people may begin to believe that the EU has outserved its usefulness.  Struggle against the major World powers and the constituents of the EU may realise that its strength in numbers and unity is a very positive thing.
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

NeilP

Quote from: DavidL on January 17, 2017, 10:21:40 am
A few days after Mark Carney's (bullshitter) volte face, I see the IMF (bullshitters) have revised UK growth upwards  from 0.4% to 1.5%
;D



The previous prediction was 1.1%, stop making stuff up ;)


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38637243

NeilP

Quote from: DavidL on January 17, 2017, 12:55:56 pm
Sterling up over 2.5% against dollar



good news though the dollar is down against all foreign currencies as the PEOTUS said i'it's overvalued and is killin' us!'


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38650529


DavidL

January 17, 2017, 15:26:55 pm #463 Last Edit: January 17, 2017, 15:37:14 pm by DavidL
Quote from: NeilP on January 17, 2017, 15:00:51 pm

The previous prediction was 1.1%, stop making stuff up ;)


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38637243
You're right, I stand corrected. Reported incorrectly - should have been "revised upwards by 0.4% to 1.5%". Theresa's speech has got me over-excited

;) 

NeilP

Quote from: Moving Target on January 13, 2017, 16:13:27 pm

Yep, much of the standard of debate was really poor from both sides. Dave and Gideon making up £4K losses to each family in their heads post-Brexit, Boris making up numbers about NHS spending, Leave.EU blowing the dog whistle with imaginary armies of foreign-looking men.


On the Leave side I thought Daniel Hannan was highly persuasive concerning new trade opportunities, and on the Remain side Sir Nicholas Soames and Gordon Brown did inspiring videos.



you believed Hannan?


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2YR7qBXgAEoqtt.jpg