Brexit watch

Started by Nick, October 20, 2016, 17:02:39 pm

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Moving Target

December 09, 2016, 14:35:38 pm #330 Last Edit: December 11, 2016, 17:03:55 pm by Moving Target
Quote from: DavidL on December 09, 2016, 10:56:10 am
Base level interest rates may have risen by a small amount to somewhere closer to 'normal' levels and hard pressed savers may have finally been given some good news.  Inflation would have risen closer towards  BoE target of 2%. Businesses would have survived this adjustment back towards normality and consumers, who have enjoyed low prices on food etc. for years, would have too.
So your view is that those effects are more important than protecting Sterling.


Oops! Tim Farron is facing a revolt as three of his nine MPs abstain from the recent timetable for withdrawal motion. I had a debate with a LD strategist about this. He said all the LD MPs should not try to retard A50 further, while I said surely the MPs' decision must be on a constituency basis. If they are in a Remain area, they should try to stop A50 or amend it to a watered down type of Brexit.


I will make a prediction. By March 2018 we will be out of the EU, but still in the single market and customs union with certain constraints on free movement such as those Cameron sought to secure. In other words there will be a giant fudge and we will be in the same position as before except lacking any clout in terms of decision making, in effect joining EFTA.

DavidL

Quote from: Moving Target on December 09, 2016, 14:35:38 pm
So your view is that those effects are more important than protecting Sterling.


Oops! Tim Farron is facing a revolt as three of his nine MPs abstain from the Recent timetable for withdrawal motion. I had a debate with a LD strategist about this. He said all the LD MPs should not try to retard A50 further, while I said surely the MPs' decision must be on a constituency basis. If they are in a Remain area, they should try to stop A50 or amend it to a watered down type of Brexit.


I will make a prediction. By March 2018 we will be out of the EU, but still in the single market and customs union with certain constraints on free movement such as those Cameron sought to secure. In other words there will be a giant fudge and we will be in the same position as before except lacking any clout in terms of decision making, in effect joining EFTA.
The 'correction' in the value of sterling has been a boon for exporters and retail sales.
My prediction is that we will be out of the EU but will probably end up with a compromise on the single market that allows free movement of labour. This would be a fudge that many would accept. We will not be in the same position as before (obviously) as contributions (if any) will fall a long way short of £8.5bn per annum. That is, of course, if such a thing as the EU still exists in 2018.


The Letter R


DavidL

Unemployment has fallen to an 11-year low.

döm

Quote from: DavidL on December 15, 2016, 10:28:00 am
Unemployment has fallen to an 11-year low.



yes it was all going so well....
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

Bez

Quote from: DavidL on December 15, 2016, 10:28:00 am
Unemployment has fallen to an 11-year low.


Inflation up and predicted to rise faster than the "ideal rate" due to increased costs for imported raw materials....

Balance in everything required, including short sighted adherence to a poor nationally taken decision... :P
RC1.1 abd g/n 11/0/bcd/tG PeW/- ~600 x 0 61%

DavidL


DavidL

Quote from: Bez on December 15, 2016, 13:34:06 pm
Inflation up and predicted to rise faster than the "ideal rate" due to increased costs for imported raw materials....

Balance in everything required, including short sighted adherence to a poor nationally taken decision... :P
We know how much faith you can put in (economic) predictions. Obviously not rising at a fast enough rate for the BoE/government who consider an ideal inflation 'target' to be 2%  :P :P

Current evidence suggests that the nationally taken decision has not yet turned out to be as poor as you had hoped it would be. At the moment you'll just have to keep praying for the country to collapse..I'm afraid  ;)

Bez

Quote from: DavidL on December 15, 2016, 13:49:49 pm
We know how much faith you can put in (economic) predictions. Obviously not rising at a fast enough rate for the BoE/government who consider an ideal inflation 'target' to be 2%  :P :P

Current evidence suggests that the nationally taken decision has not yet turned out to be as poor as you had hoped it would be. At the moment you'll just have to keep praying for the country to collapse..I'm afraid  ;)


I'd like to think that you'll be apologising for these posts in the future, but you seem to be as intractable as Slim in your dogma... :P

The last thing I want is for the country to go down the pan - I've worked hard over the years and have no mortgage, cash in the bank / investments and decent pension to look forward to....
RC1.1 abd g/n 11/0/bcd/tG PeW/- ~600 x 0 61%

DavidL

Quote from: Bez on December 15, 2016, 14:27:12 pm
I'd like to think that you'll be apologising for these posts in the future, but you seem to be as intractable as Slim in your dogma... :P

Of course things may get rough, I'm not foolish enough to think that there is not a possibility of some economic hardship ahead (especially if the EU choose to 'punish' us for our decision) but, unlike yourself, I hope that apology won't be necessary  ;)
I am, afterall, just stating the facts as they stand, at present - your time may yet come  ;)
As for your investments: increasing inflation equals higher interest rates for your cash and your investment/pension will be doing OK at the moment with the FTSE nudging 7000. No need to sell the family silver just yet  ;)

döm

It won't be a choice to punish the UK but a choice to preserve the integrity of the EU.
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

DavidL

December 15, 2016, 22:36:35 pm #342 Last Edit: December 15, 2016, 22:40:25 pm by DavidL
Quote from: döm on December 15, 2016, 20:53:44 pm
It won't be a choice to punish the UK but a choice to preserve the integrity of the EU.
I'm fairly certain that, in the minds of the EU commissars, enacting the former will help ensure the latter.

döm

Quote from: DavidL on December 15, 2016, 22:36:35 pm
I'm fairly certain that, in the minds of the EU commissars, enacting the former will help ensure the latter.



We're splitting hairs as the net effect is the same but in the minds of those in the EU it's about self preservation. The Brits may well view it ss a punishment.


A one off or the shape  of things to come....?


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-pink-wafer-company-administration-rivington-biscuits-cut-100-jobs-pound-sterling-value-drop-a7476881.html?cmpid=facebook-post

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

DavidL

Quote from: döm on December 15, 2016, 23:58:25 pm

We're splitting hairs as the net effect is the same but in the minds of those in the EU it's about self preservation. The Brits may well view it ss a punishment.


A one off or the shape  of things to come....?


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-pink-wafer-company-administration-rivington-biscuits-cut-100-jobs-pound-sterling-value-drop-a7476881.html?cmpid=facebook-post
That's sad for those who wil lose their jobs. Terrible biscuits though, has to be said ......and that's official  ;)


http://metro.co.uk/2015/06/01/21-british-biscuits-ranked-from-worst-to-best-the-definitive-list-5224653/