Brexit watch

Started by Nick, October 20, 2016, 17:02:39 pm

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Nïckslïkk2112

And what if the other two "great" blocs gang up on the EU?
If Ifs and Ands were Pots and Pans and all that.

We can still cooperate with people. You only have to look at things like CERN, their major bit of kit isn't in the EU.
Is the way the Germans have imposed shackles on the Greek economy co-operation?
Legend in my own Mind


NeilP


DavidL

Quote from: Nick on November 21, 2016, 20:56:56 pm
While we wait to leave the EU I saw a paragraph that summed the future up quite well.

The UK could and should be a leading member of one of the three great blocs in the world, wielding influence and setting an example with its EU partners on co-operation, progress, and civilised values. If it leaves the EU it will be an increasingly diminished and marginal offshore island, sucking its thumb while the great blocs make decisions in which it takes no part but by which it is helplessly affected.
It's quite probable that one of those three 'great' blocs will no longer exist in a decade. More likely, two 'great' blocs, along with one 'great' nation  :P   ;)

DavidL

Quote from: NeilP on November 21, 2016, 22:06:51 pm
this scenario seems somewhat bleak...quite worried tbh

https://inews.co.uk/explainers/iq/hard-brexit-cliff-edge-vision-leaving-eu-without-deal-imagined/
Ah, I see he has a book to sell. File next to biographies of Mystic Meg and David Icke

NeilP

I wouldn't dismiss it so easily, there have been plenty of  bleak predictions if we do the cliff dive from the EU... not involving book sales.  You should have a word with Theresa and put the nation's fears at rest. ;)

DavidL

Facebook to open new offices in London employing 500 extra staff

döm

Quote from: DavidL on November 22, 2016, 10:36:34 am
Facebook to open new offices in London employing 500 extra staff



wonder if they were humming along to Hotel California as they were signing that off?
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

Nick

Not good news on the future for the UK economy after the Autumn statement, Peston sums it up quite well below.

"According to the cursed experts at the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government's debt is set to rise from 84% of GDP or national income last year to over 90% at the end of March 2018.

Now you don't have to be a fiscal-rectitude fetishist to feel a bit anxious about this.

After all, the government's debt was 40% of GDP before the 2008 financial crisis. So the consistent deterioration since then is stark and of concern.

Also 90% is conventionally seen as an inflexion point - to use the ghastly cliche - at which economic performance starts to be damaged.

The slippery slope to Italian, Japanese or Greek economic under-performance is - at that level - no longer just the stuff of conservative economists' fairy tales.

Now at least part of this deterioration is due to the short-to-medium term negative impact of Brexit on already weak UK productivity, growth and tax revenues.

So here's what those ideological despisers of experts - the Goves, Johnsons and Rees-Moggs - had better be correct about: that Brexit will liberate the animal spirits of British businesses and ultimately lead to an acceleration of growth.

Because if their thinking is wishful, and the reality turns out to be that the increased friction and costs of trading with our biggest market has permanently damaged our productive potential, then all that valiant work since 1979 to turn the UK into an economy fit for wealth creators will have been for nought."
Everybody's got to evalate from the norm.

Nïckslïkk2112

It's to be hoped that these cursed experts at the Office for Budget Responsibility have Crystal Balls. Then they won't be able to reproduce and all these people and there economic pronouncements will die out, then we can just get on with things.
Gideon was always reassessing forecasts from Budget to Budget. Nothing ever turns out over the course of even a year compared to what was forecast, so why bother making all these long range forecasts?

Many years ago I remember producing many a forecast proving to the auditors that the company I worked for was a going concern. It went belly up...
Legend in my own Mind


NeilP

OBR figures put the losses due to Brexit at a median figure of around £60bn over the next 5 years, which swallows most of the £11bn p/a we send to the EU. The upper figure, perhaps unlikely but who really knows, is around £200bn. UK will be paying EU contributions PLUS Brexit costs for at least the first 2 years. Hate to say it but the Osbourne guesstimate of £4,300 per household looks in the ballpark.

I wonder if sensible minds are beginning to realise that tanking the economy and making people poorer is not a good vote winner?

DavidL

Quote from: NeilP on November 25, 2016, 00:27:30 am
OBR figures put the losses due to Brexit at a median figure of around £60bn over the next 5 years, which swallows most of the £11bn p/a we send to the EU. The upper figure, perhaps unlikely but who really knows, is around £200bn. UK will be paying EU contributions PLUS Brexit costs for at least the first 2 years. Hate to say it but the Osbourne guesstimate of £4,300 per household looks in the ballpark.

I wonder if sensible minds are beginning to realise that tanking the economy and making people poorer is not a good vote winner?
Crystal ball - gazing bell-ends

NeilP

Well these IFS projections are based on a higher growth level than most think we'll achieve... I do wish some folk would wake up and smell the coffee

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38090977

DavidL

Quote from: NeilP on November 25, 2016, 08:09:31 am
Well these IFS projections are based on a higher growth level than most think we'll achieve... I do wish some folk would wake up and smell the coffee


We haven't even put the kettle on yet

Nick

I understand that forecasts are best guesses and all so far have been of the painful outcome, so where are the positive forecasts from the Brexiters? That worries me.
Everybody's got to evalate from the norm.

Nïckslïkk2112

Read the D**ly M**l and you'll find out :) ;)
Legend in my own Mind