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July 16, 2019, 16:08:01 pm

Brexit watch

Started by Nick, October 20, 2016, 17:02:39 pm

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Slim

Interesting contributions to the national discussion from Mark Carney in recent days:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/01/12/bank-of-englands-mark-carney-hard-brexits-a-problem-for-the-eu-not-britain/#6a62ce77192e

"The risks to financial stability of a hard Brexit really lie with the countries remaining in the European Union, not with Britain which is leaving"

and

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/03/bank-of-england-stages-post-brexit-u-turn-as-it-hikes-growth-for/

"The Bank of England has almost doubled its economic growth forecast for 2017 and scrapped its planned interest rate cut, in a dramatic U-turn on its earlier warnings that the economy would suffer a severe post-referendum crunch"


All of which reinforces the proposition, already fairly well established, that a lot of the misguided 48% were persuaded to cast their votes to remain as a consequence of lies and scaremongering. No emergency budget either, and no "back of the queue".

I have to think that if the campaign had been fought more honestly, the result would have been even more decisive. Still - victory was achieved nonetheless,

The Letter R

Quote from: Slim on January 13, 2017, 12:26:39 pm
I have to think that if the campaign had been fought more honestly, the result would have been even more decisive.

Obviously that's an answerable thought, but let's not forget both sides were guilty of campaigning on lies and scaremongering in equal measure. So on that basis the result I think would still have been tight even if all the arguments used were honest ones.


DavidL

Quote from: The Letter R on January 13, 2017, 13:30:18 pm
Obviously that's an answerable thought, but let's not forget both sides were guilty of campaigning on lies and scaremongering in equal measure.
;D

Slim

Quote from: The Letter R on January 13, 2017, 13:30:18 pm
Obviously that's an answerable thought, but let's not forget both sides were guilty of campaigning on lies and scaremongering in equal measure.


How did you arrive at that conclusion?

The Letter R

Well I'd rather focus collective energy on moving forward positively as one but you know as well as I do for every "doom" moment from remain there was a "Turks are coming lads batten down the hatches", "European Army is happening we'll have no control of our Armed Forces" and I won't even mention that "Bus message".I call those types of statements Lies and Scaremonger as much as "The Pound will crash we'll all live in poverty for decades come Brexit" from Remain.


Moving Target

Quote from: The Letter R on January 13, 2017, 13:30:18 pm
Obviously that's an answerable thought, but let's not forget both sides were guilty of campaigning on lies and scaremongering in equal measure. So on that basis the result I think would still have been tight even if all the arguments used were honest ones.



Yep, much of the standard of debate was really poor from both sides. Dave and Gideon making up £4K losses to each family in their heads post-Brexit, Boris making up numbers about NHS spending, Leave.EU blowing the dog whistle with imaginary armies of foreign-looking men.


On the Leave side I thought Daniel Hannan was highly persuasive concerning new trade opportunities, and on the Remain side Sir Nicholas Soames and Gordon Brown did inspiring videos.

DavidL

Quote from: Moving Target on January 13, 2017, 16:13:27 pm

Boris making up numbers about NHS spending. Leave.EU blowing the dog whistle with imaginary armies of foreign-looking men



;D
('armies', 'imaginary' and 'foreign-looking' are your own terms, I take it?)

Moving Target

Quote from: DavidL on January 13, 2017, 16:54:39 pm
;D
('armies', 'imaginary' and 'foreign-looking' are your own terms, I take it?)
All my terms are my own terms, naturally. 😁

DavidL

Quote from: Moving Target on January 13, 2017, 18:13:44 pm
All my terms are my own terms, naturally. 😁
I believe it's known as 'poetic licence'  ;)

Moving Target

Quote from: DavidL on January 13, 2017, 19:46:51 pm
I believe it's known as 'poetic licence'  ;)



Dunno about poetic, but I've been call licentious a few times. 😉

Slim

Quote from: The Letter R on January 13, 2017, 15:46:43 pm
Well I'd rather focus collective energy on moving forward positively as one but you know as well as I do for every "doom" moment from remain there was a "Turks are coming lads batten down the hatches", "European Army is happening we'll have no control of our Armed Forces" and I won't even mention that "Bus message".I call those types of statements Lies and Scaremonger as much as "The Pound will crash we'll all live in poverty for decades come Brexit" from Remain.


The "bus message" or rather its interpretation is actually a classic example of a Remainer lie sadly, so I rather think you're making my point for me, Keith. The actual message on the side of that bus, put there by the Vote Leave campaign  was "We send the EU £350 million a week. let's fund our NHS instead".

Len McCluskey said "Let's make Brexit the moment to break with neo-liberal economics" following the vote, but when that doesn't actually happen (in his terms) I don't think anyone will accuse him of lying, will they?

Compare this with the assurance, boldly and unambiguously stated before the referendum by members of the government, both then and now, that a successful Leave vote would mean the UK leaving the single market. Now THAT, in contrast, is unambiguously a promise.

There's no doubt that the Remain campaign was overwhelmingly dishonest to a dramatically greater degree than the campaign to leave, and I think that's reflected in the exaggerated number of votes it managed to provoke.



Slim

Quote from: Moving Target on January 13, 2017, 16:13:27 pm
Boris making up numbers about NHS spending


Do you have a reference for this?

Slim

This is rather nice to see:

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-to-reveal-brexit-plans-in-major-speech-on-tuesday-a3440916.html

Theresa May is expected to give the most detailed insight yet into her Brexit plans in a major speech on Tuesday.

Although the exact contents of the speech are said to be a closely-guarded secret, The Sunday Telegraph quoted a government source as saying: "She's gone for the full works. People will know when she said 'Brexit means Brexit', she really meant it."
There's speculation on the BBC News site as well that she will "signal pulling out of the EU single market and customs union"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38628428

Lovely. Fingers crossed.
Remoaners won't like it of course, while Brexiteers will feel rather encouraged.

And given the result of the referendum, that's the right way round - isn't it? :)

Bez

Quote from: Slim on January 15, 2017, 12:35:59 pm

Theresa May is expected to give the most detailed insight yet into her Brexit plans in a major speech on Tuesday.



I won't be holding my breath for the kind of detail that folk are hoping for....

I get the need to keep her cards close to her chest from a negotiation point of view, butwe need to least spell out our aims. I suspect that it will be :

So called "Hard" Brexit
RC1.1 abd g/n 11/0/bcd/tG PeW/- ~600 x 0 61%

Nick

Rumblings of turning the UK into some kind of European tax haven. I really hope that's not the plan.
Everybody's got to evalate from the norm.