Brexit watch

Started by Nick, October 20, 2016, 18:02:39 pm

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döm

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

döm

Quote from: Slim on August 22, 2019, 22:51:06 pmThe UK has no wish, or need to align its standards with those of the EU. If the Republic insists on erecting hard border infrastructure to protect the single market that's its sovereign right, and its own problem.

And yes, the UK will have control of its borders, and will end freedom of movement. There already is a border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland. Just because you can stroll over won't make it legal. If you look at the border between the US and Canada for example, there are a lot of places where you can just walk over without showing a passport.

Good to see that Merkel has seen a bit of sense, and the facade is cracking. All it takes is a firm approach and refusal to take any bullshit.
Now thats dreaming! For the UK to choose to diverge its standards from the EU would be an act of pig ignorance. Why would it chose to make trade more difficult with its closest neighbours?

Just looking at one of their smallest neighbours - Ireland. The Uk has a 16 billion trade surplus with Ireland. It exports almost twice as much to Ireland as it does to China for example . A country of only 4 million is UK's 6th biggest trading partner for exports. Why would it choose to damage that. An act completely lacking logic and of gross negligence!
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

zoony

Quote from: Nick on August 23, 2019, 16:14:58 pmI doubt anybody would have voted for the current chaos we are now and will be in.
No chaos around here where I live mate. Just waiting for Boris to deliver what we voted for.

Nick

Quote from: Slim on August 22, 2019, 22:51:06 pmThe UK has no wish, or need to align its standards with those of the EU. 
Well if we want to export goods into the EU we need to meet their standards, as we would do with the USA as well.
Everybody's got to evalate from the norm.

Nïckslïkk2112

Interesting that the Frogs want to block the EU's "magnificent" trade deal with South America. The one which at the time Greenpeace warned about signing because it would lead to increased Amazonian despoilation.
Legend in my own Mind


rufus the dawg

Quote from: DavidL on August 23, 2019, 18:25:32 pmI know someone that voted Remain because they were told there'd be "immediate and profound" negative economic consequences.  ;D
Brexit has not happened!

rufus the dawg

Quote from: zoony on August 23, 2019, 20:06:51 pmNo chaos around here where I live mate. Just waiting for Boris to deliver what we voted for.
what did you vote for

Canada plus plus double plus
Norway +++++ plus plus ++++
Single Market
Raspberry milkshakes all round
Bendy bananas.

Leave yes, how and with what. Because even if we leave with No deal we will have eventually sign a deal with the EU?

Slim

Quote from: rufus the dawg on August 23, 2019, 21:39:32 pmwhat did you vote for

Canada plus plus double plus
Norway +++++ plus plus ++++
Single Market
Raspberry milkshakes all round
Bendy bananas.

Leave yes, how and with what. Because even if we leave with No deal we will have eventually sign a deal with the EU?

We voted to leave the EU. It's amazing to me that so many gullible remainers imagine that we voted for a "deal" to leave the EU. We simply voted to leave.

And yes, of course there'll be a trade deal. It will happen a lot more quickly, and on more beneficial terms when Brexit is a fait accompli.

Slim

Quote from: döm on August 23, 2019, 19:57:35 pmNow thats dreaming! For the UK to choose to diverge its standards from the EU would be an act of pig ignorance. Why would it chose to make trade more difficult with its closest neighbours?

Just looking at one of their smallest neighbours - Ireland. The Uk has a 16 billion trade surplus with Ireland. It exports almost twice as much to Ireland as it does to China for example . A country of only 4 million is UK's 6th biggest trading partner for exports. Why would it choose to damage that. An act completely lacking logic and of gross negligence!

No.

Why would we adopt the EU as arbiters of our own standard? Do the Chinese, or the Americans, both of whom trade in huge quantities do this? it doesn't particularly make trade more difficult in any case. Both sides can still pick and choose what they wish to import according to their own needs and their own standards. As is usual when individual nations trade with each other.

DavidL


Slim

Two things over the last week or so make me think that a clean break Brexit, already IMO the most likely outcome, is now even more probable.

First: Corbyn's insistence that has has to be in charge of any emergency disunity / democracy-suppressing government that might arise following a vote of confidence in the Commons. I doubt that even a majority of his own MPs want to see him become Prime Minister, let alone rebel Tories and Lib Dems. The Little Scotlanders and the deranged misandrist Green Party woman, maybe. Who knows. But critically I doubt that the government would lose a confidence vote on those terms.

Secondly: Merkel's apparent offer to the Prime Minister to come up with a viable alternative to the backstop, and by extension the comical "hard border". Some MPs, most notably moderate Labour MPs in Leave-supporting areas and a few of the Tory Hard-Brexit-phobes will prefer to wait and see, rather than scupper the possibility of leaving on Oct 31st with a deal. Another reason to believe that Boris is likely to survive a confidence vote, if the opposition were to call one.

And when, as I expect, Merkel and the rest of the EU mandarins reject proposals from the UK government and it turns out they just wanted to pretend to be a bit less intransigent, it will be too late to force a General Election before we leave.

döm

August 24, 2019, 08:42:40 am #3266 Last Edit: August 24, 2019, 08:45:26 am by döm

Quote from: Slim on August 23, 2019, 23:53:40 pmNo.

Why would we adopt the EU as arbiters of our own standard? Do the Chinese, or the Americans, both of whom trade in huge quantities do this? it doesn't particularly make trade more difficult in any case. Both sides can still pick and choose what they wish to import according to their own needs and their own standards. As is usual when individual nations trade with each other.
When nations do trade deals with one another realpolitik has a large part to play. The UK is the minor party in negotiations and 50% of its exports go to the EU. 6% of EU exports go to thd UK. If it wants a decent  trade deal it will have to comply with EU standards.

For example if the UK decides to drop some of its agricultural standards to facilitate a trade deal with the US it will be at the expense of agricultural trade with the EU. The only way of preventing that is to hope that the EU and US reach a deal equalising standards between the 2. There would have been more chance of that happening while the UK was still a member of the  EU where it coud have helped influence and shape EU trade policy.
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

Slim

Quote from: döm on August 24, 2019, 08:42:40 amWhen nations do trade deals with one another realpolitik has a large part to play. The UK is the minor party in negotiations and 50% of its exports go to the EU. 6% of EU exports go to thd UK. If it wants a decent  trade deal it will have to comply with EU standards.

For example if the UK decides to drop some of its agricultural standards to facilitate a trade deal with the US it will be at the expense of agricultural trade with the EU. The only way of preventing that is to hope that the EU and US reach a deal equalising standards between the 2. There would have been more chance of that happening while the UK was still a member of the  EU where it could have helped influence and shape EU trade policy.

Don't agree with this at all; exporters in the UK who want to export to the EU will comply with their standards and vice versa, it's as simple as that. What won't happen is compliance to a set of rules governing all trade, so for example if an importer in the UK wants to buy warehouse loads of chlorinated chicken it will be at liberty to do so - assuming that our own standards permit that.

DavidL

Quote from: Slim on August 24, 2019, 10:16:46 amDon't agree with this at all; exporters in the UK who want to export to the EU will comply with their standards and vice versa, it's as simple as that. What won't happen is compliance to a set of rules governing all trade, so for example if an importer in the UK wants to buy warehouse loads of chlorinated chicken it will be at liberty to do so - assuming that our own standards permit that.
Especially when they can easily flog them to the Irish!! ;D

Nick

Quote from: Slim on August 24, 2019, 10:16:46 amDon't agree with this at all; exporters in the UK who want to export to the EU will comply with their standards and vice versa, it's as simple as that. What won't happen is compliance to a set of rules governing all trade, so for example if an importer in the UK wants to buy warehouse loads of chlorinated chicken it will be at liberty to do so - assuming that our own standards permit that.
But it sounds like most British standards will just mirror EU standards and we will roll them over, which basically means we will have no input into the standard itself. Not much control there.
Everybody's got to evalate from the norm.