Brexit watch

Started by Nick, October 20, 2016, 18:02:39 pm

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DavidL

Anna Soubry, Anna Soubry.....you're not singing anymore

Slim

I quote your posts to help you understand the context of my responses to you, Rufus. I'm not sure whether it's working or not.

Can you provide a source for the peer reviews for the articles you've linked, please?

None of them represent original ideas of your own, of course. I think they're opinion pieces.

Slim

Just looked at Anna's Twitter feed over the last couple of hours. She's flushed her career down the toilet quite nicely by tying it to the Change UK clown car.

I gather she's upset because Corbyn is insisting that he should be in charge of the National Emergency One-sided Referendum Loser's Government for Disharmony and Resentment that she wants to usurp Boris with.

Which is quite handy, since Corbyn doesn't even have the confidence of his own parliamentary party.

Just read his letter to other party leaders, which amusingly excludes Soubry. It's full of self-serving bollocks and dishonesty as you'd expect, but the critical aspect is that he wants a no-confidence vote and an election before a referendum.

DavidL

In the words of the late, great Les Gray - "It'll be lonely this Christmas" for dear Anna

DavidL

"It's my party and I'll cry if I want to - you would cry too...if it happened to you" ;-)

The Letter R

QuoteCorbyn doesn't even have the confidence of his own parliamentary party.
I was thinking the very same this morning when i read his plea

döm

Wonder if Ken Clarke would be interested in setting up a unity Government? He would garner more support than Corbyn I would imagine.
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

Nïckslïkk2112

Rufus, I'm pretty sure that we traded with Germany pre WWI and WWII.
Didn't stop the wars did it now?
However wars stop trade.
Legend in my own Mind


rufus the dawg

I have have put up a peer review

The European Union and the Peaceful Settlement of International Disputes
https://academic.oup.com/chinesejil/article-abstract/11/1/77/337532

Slim Encyclyopeda Britanicia  is not opinon. Standard (c)onservative stuff

Slim I am waiting "Because Thatcher always gets the blame for tanking British industry and causing wholesale unemployment in the '80s, when actually the Labour movement and trade unions did that."

Please justify the above statement. 

rufus the dawg

Matthew O. Jackson: Can Trade Prevent War?
A new network model suggests that international trade alliances are considerably more effective than military ones at keeping the peace.
May 28, 2014|by Loren Mooney


    Shipping Morris Minors and Oxfords overseas from an English wharf, 1949
    How can humans stop war? Obviously there's no simple answer, but a new network model analysis of international alliances suggests that trade may be at least part of the answer. The model, developed by Stanford economist Matthew O. Jackson and economics Ph.D. candidate Stephen Nei, suggests that military alliances alone aren't enough to stop nations from attacking one other, and also that the addition of multilateral economic trade creates a more stable, peaceful world.
    While there is considerable existing research on the effects of trade and war, much of it has looked at bilateral relationships. This model focuses on multilateral interactions and considers various incentives for countries to attack, form alliances with, and trade with one another. In an attempt to understand what's necessary to achieve a stable network with no incentive for war, Jackson and Nei first explored an alliance scenario based solely on military defense considerations, excluding trade. "The fundamental difficulty we find is that alliances are costly to maintain if there's no economic incentive," says Jackson. So networks remain relatively sparse, a condition in which even a few shifting allegiances leaves some countries vulnerable to attack. "Stability is not just a little bit elusive; it's very elusive."
    Economic trade, however, makes a significant difference. "Once you bring in trade, you see network structures densify," he says. Nations form a web of trading alliances, which creates financial incentive not only to keep peace with trading partners, but also to protect them from being attacked so as not to disrupt trade. "In the context of the alliances we have analyzed, trade motives are essential to avoiding wars and sustaining stable networks," the authors wrote in their paper, Networks of Military Alliances, Wars, and International Trade.
    Euro statueThe Eurozone has promoted peace and trade | Associated Press Photo by Bernd Kammerer
    Their findings coincide with two major global trends since World War II: From 1950 to 2000, the incidence of interstate war has decreased nearly tenfold compared with the period from 1850 to 1949. At the same time, since 1950 international trade networks have increased nearly fourfold, becoming significantly more dense. "In the period before World War II, it was hard to find a stable set of alliances," says Jackson. The probability of a lasting alliance was about 60%. "You have almost a coin-flip chance that the alliance won't still be there in five years," he says. In Europe in the 1870s, for example, German chancellor Otto von Bismarck sought peace with "balance of power" diplomacy, which crumbled leading up to World War I. "Then in the past 50 years or so, there's been a surprising global stability." The impact of economic interdependence is especially apparent in Europe, Jackson says, where the Eurozone has promoted not only peace and increased trade among nations, but also labor mobility.
    Very costly wars still occur, of course, but Jackson notes that the most war-torn places in recent history have tended to be those with fewer global trade alliances. For example, the Second Congo War from 1998 to 2003 and beyond, which killed more than four million people and is the deadliest war since World War II, involved eight African nations with relatively few trade ties. "Then look at the Kuwait situation," says Jackson, referring to U.S. intervention in the first Gulf War to protect oil supplies. "Economic interest drives a lot of what goes on in terms of where nations are willing to exercise military strength."
    There are other real-world factors that have no doubt influenced war and trade trends since World War II, among them the proliferation of nuclear weapons -- "Changing military technology can help maintain stable arrangements," says Jackson -- the Cold War, an increase in worldwide wealth levels, and the introduction of container shipping in the 1960s, which has helped facilitate low-cost, long-range trade.
    Still, Jackson and Nei's theoretical model suggests that trade alliances play a critical role. And in fact economic allies may be the most worth striving for in developing areas. "Maybe wars like the Second Congo War won't be occurring in the future if there's more trade with African nations," says Jackson. "Economic interests can really help us have a more peaceful world than we already have."
    Matthew O. Jackson is the William D. Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford, and earned his PhD in economics from Stanford GSB in 1988.

    rufus the dawg

    Their findings coincide with two major global trends since World War II: From 1950 to 2000, the incidence of interstate war has decreased nearly tenfold compared with the period from 1850 to 1949. At the same time, since 1950 international trade networks have increased nearly fourfold, becoming significantly more dense. "In the period before World War II, it was hard to find a stable set of alliances," says Jackson. The probability of a lasting alliance was about 60%. "You have almost a coin-flip chance that the alliance won't still be there in five years," he says. In Europe in the 1870s, for example, German chancellor Otto von Bismarck sought peace with "balance of power" diplomacy, which crumbled leading up to World War I. "Then in the past 50 years or so, there's been a surprising global stability." The impact of economic interdependence is especially apparent in Europe, Jackson says, where the Eurozone has promoted not only peace and increased trade among nations, but also labor mobility.

    rufus the dawg

     Nick, slim, Dave never ever justify their statments.

    T

    DavidL

    Hope you're enjoying retirement, rufus. I've got another six or seven years but can't wait myself!

    Slim

    QuoteWonder if Ken Clarke would be interested in setting up a unity Government? He would garner more support than Corbyn I would imagine.

    Boris Johnson has already set one up. Seriously. A government that seeks some sort of accord and agreement with our friends in the EU (they aren't really our friends I know, but that's the diplomatic spin Boris has stuck to, fair play) while seeking to honour the referendum result - and the declaration of Article 50 which after all was carried by a large parliamentary majority - is always going to better serve the crucial interest of unity than a government installed in a coup with the assistance of a criminally biased Speaker. Seeks to thwart a referendum result and consists solely of people on the losing side, specifically excluding representation for the majority cannot lead to unity.

    It's a sick and perverse flavour of Orwellian NewSpeak to describe what Clarke, Soubry, Grieve, Watson, Benn et al want as "unity". that's the last thing they care about.

    Nïckslïkk2112

    {QUOTE]Nick, slim, Dave never ever justify their statements.[/quote]
    And nor does Rufus T Dawg.
    At best he post someones's OPINION. At worst some wikicopypasta.
    Legend in my own Mind