Author Topic: Brexit watch  (Read 37257 times)

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Bez

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Re: Brexit watch
« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2016, 08:31:32 AM »
I think the Wallonia barrier demonstrates how individual EU members have control over trade deals and that they are still free to make many decisions themselves. Wasn't that one of the arguments for leaving the EU, that we had lost our sovereignty?

Absolutely....

I think much of that historically has been the government's (various) lack of backbone in standing up to the EU and particularly the ECoHR

Despite what others on here say, if the vote was run again we would see a different outcome - and no, I'm not advocating another vote, merely pointing out the breadth of feeling across the country.
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The Letter R

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Re: Brexit watch
« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2016, 08:44:49 AM »
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit01.pdf
Quite a decent read here for how our options stand now - written before the vote by the London School of Economics - nice to actually read something about the whole scenario without a slant or over-exaggeration in either direction. Factually based with no emotion - pity the referendum wasn't carried out in a similar way.......by both sides........

NeilP

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Re: Brexit watch
« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2016, 09:13:17 AM »
Neither do I, but I do recall seeing it affirmed unambiguously by prominent campaigners on both sides of the argument. David Cameron, Angela Leadsom, Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, George Osborne. All of them stated unambiguously that we would leave the single market following a Brexit vote, with the exception of Angela Leadsom who to be fair only described this as "almost certain".


Boris didn't seem to be saying that on the 26th June in the Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/


"Icannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be. There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment. EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU. British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market."

DavidL

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Re: Brexit watch
« Reply #18 on: October 25, 2016, 11:28:31 AM »
I think the Wallonia barrier demonstrates how individual EU members have control over trade deals and that they are still free to make many decisions themselves. Wasn't that one of the arguments for leaving the EU, that we had lost our sovereignty?
Well it certainly shows that there are still factions within the EU that will not allow the EU to speak fo them. I suspect this is the tip of the iceberg with many more prepared to show dissent given the opportunity. A colossal amount of time wasted, not to mention the money. An example of how the EU's 'one size fits all' approach is doomed to failure.
Juncker et al must be spewing. I understand the point about sovereignty but it's a very expensive exercise in illustrating the EU still has the capacity to listen to member states.
Not how I'd choose to UK taxpayer's money spent.

NeilP

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Re: Brexit watch
« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2016, 12:28:47 PM »
Microsoft raising prices in the UK by up to 22% because of the slump in Sterling's value

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/24/microsoft-office-british-business-pound-slump-eu-referendum

NeilP

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Re: Brexit watch
« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2016, 12:32:14 PM »
I think we may have a better chance, on our own, of negotiating a deal with Canada before 2024.


perhaps so, tho currently they export to the UK 2x the value of what we export to them.

Moving Target

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Re: Brexit watch
« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2016, 12:51:42 PM »
Zac Goldsmith has resigned the Tory whip over LHR expansion.


So will there be a by-election, and if so will Goldsmith stand as an independent against a Tory candidate?  Richmond Park is made up of the sort of metropolitan graduate class who voted Remain, so I would not bet against an opportunist Lib Dem win.

döm

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Re: Brexit watch
« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2016, 13:39:44 PM »

perhaps so, tho currently they export to the UK 2x the value of what we export to them.


not sure how valid that statistic is bearing in mind the EU is 6 far greater than the UK.  What proportion of the EU's exports go to the UK and vice versa might be more valid?
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döm

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Re: Brexit watch
« Reply #23 on: October 25, 2016, 13:44:19 PM »

53% of UKs exports went to the EU in 2015

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/




The UK exported 13% of its GDP to the EU and the EU exported 3% of its GDP to the EU


% of UKs exports went to the EU in 2015
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 19:06:28 PM by döm »
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NeilP

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Nick

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Re: Brexit watch
« Reply #25 on: October 25, 2016, 18:15:57 PM »

Despite what others on here say, if the vote was run again we would see a different outcome - and no, I'm not advocating another vote, merely pointing out the breadth of feeling across the country.

Yes, i think you are right, the sheer size of the task ahead is frightening and perhaps not possible. The schisms it has opened up amongst families, communities, North/South, Scotland/Wales, Northern Ireland just doesn't seem sensible in the slightest. To me its glaringly obvious we are going to be worse off as a society than we were before and worse off economically. The business case of cost/benefits has never been published, wish we could stop this madness.
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Nïckslïkk2112

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Re: Brexit watch
« Reply #26 on: October 25, 2016, 20:40:55 PM »
Yes, i think you are right, the sheer size of the task ahead is frightening and perhaps not possible. The schisms it has opened up amongst families, communities, North/South, Scotland/Wales, Northern Ireland just doesn't seem sensible in the slightest. To me its glaringly obvious we are going to be worse off as a society than we were before and worse off economically. The business case of cost/benefits has never been published, wish we could stop this madness.
Business cases when they are put forward quite often aren't worth the paper they're printed on. I should know I've been involved in plenty... ;)

Neither is it glaringly obvious that we'll be worse off. There may well be short term pain, but the future, well who knows? Nobody knows!
The European banking system is extremely fragile and could well topple Europe into a worse downturn than 2008, but the powers that be are to focussed on driving to closer integration to worry about things like that. All it needed was for Europe to have granted Cameron some serious concessions and things may well have been different, but they didn't - and wouldn't - for fear of encouraging other European countries - especially the likes of Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands to jump on the bandwagon. The EU project must run its course to full integration. Nothing else matters.
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NeilP

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Re: Brexit watch
« Reply #27 on: October 25, 2016, 20:48:03 PM »
Cameron claimed that the EU had moved, his mistake was offering a referendum to satisfy the Eurosceptics in his party.... a serious misjudgment it seems

Nïckslïkk2112

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Re: Brexit watch
« Reply #28 on: October 25, 2016, 21:46:26 PM »
53% of UKs exports went to the EU in 2015

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/




The UK exported 13% of its GDP to the EU and the EU exported 3% of its GDP to the EU


% of UKs exports went to the EU in 2015
Wonder why that might be ?

I remember Arthur Scargill was once confused by the fact that if you make 100 larger by ten percent you get 110, make 110 smaller by ten percent and you don't get back to a 100.
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Slim

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Re: Brexit watch
« Reply #29 on: October 25, 2016, 22:28:51 PM »
Absolutely....

I think much of that historically has been the government's (various) lack of backbone in standing up to the EU and particularly the ECoHR

Despite what others on here say, if the vote was run again we would see a different outcome - and no, I'm not advocating another vote, merely pointing out the breadth of feeling across the country.

And if it were run again in two years' time, perhaps after a few German banks have failed and another few hundred thousand migrant chancers have turned up on Europe's borders, another outcome again. It's a "so what", really, even if you could substantiate it.