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The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2019

Started by Slim, May 29, 2019, 15:23:15 pm

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Matt2112

June 14, 2019, 12:26:05 pm #90 Last Edit: June 14, 2019, 12:33:31 pm by Matt2112
Rory's price has come back in again to about what it was when I backed him - and interestingly he's suddenly third favourite ahead of Gove - but Boris is now 2/9, so his chances look unassailable.

Raab the rank outsider now at 50/1.
The keys to happiness

Slim

Are Michael and Rory really both ahead of Jeremy Hunt in the bookies' estimation? That seems absurd.

Michael's only chance of stopping Boris is to stab him in the back like he did last time, but that would kill off his own chances as well. Not with his fellow MPs perhaps, but certainly with the wider party. Unless he was up against Rory in the final two of course, but that really is the stuff of fantasy. Or nightmares.

I'm reminded of this cartoon from 2016.


Matt2112

Quote from: Slim on June 14, 2019, 15:21:18 pmAre Michael and Rory really both ahead of Jeremy Hunt in the bookies' estimation? That seems absurd.


No, no; Hunt is second at 14/1, but then has actually drifted markedly over the last couple of days.   Boris winning is virtually a done deal from looking at the betting market.
The keys to happiness

Slim

Will be interested to see what happens to the odds after the BBC leadership debate on Tuesday. I would guess that Boris' lead might slightly diminish, if only because he's more vulnerable by virtue of his relatively colourful career.

I also don't think he's particularly confident in a confrontational format, a trait he shares with Theresa.

Interested to see that two of the candidates have had a go at Corbyn today, probably quite fairly. Won't do their own standing in the party any harm.