The National Midday Sun

Signals => General Chat - English => Topic started by: Nick on October 20, 2016, 17:02:39 PM

Title: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on October 20, 2016, 17:02:39 PM
Thought we could keep an eye on how things are panning out post vote.


Very early days of course but not an auspicious start.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on October 23, 2016, 16:42:40 PM
Mrs May get a decidedly cool reception at the EU summit.  Gets to talk for five minutes at one in the morning, during AOB.  No negotiation until Article 50 is triggered.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on October 23, 2016, 17:45:27 PM
Increasing likelihood big banks will pull out of the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on October 23, 2016, 17:45:41 PM
Disappointed to hear the favourable noises about the single market emanating from Theresa. Those who feel that the NHS was promised £350m a week in a post-Brexit Britain will certainly feel that we were promised an exit from the single market, not just the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on October 23, 2016, 17:49:44 PM
Adobe expanding its base in the UK:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/10/22/adobe-says-brexit-did-not-make-us-blink-as-it-expands-uk-base/

 “We have a big worldwide view and [Brexit] didn’t cause anybody to have a second thought".

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on October 24, 2016, 14:47:26 PM
Adobe expanding its base in the UK:


 “We have a big worldwide view and [Brexit] didn’t cause anybody to have a second thought".


Encouraging news.  I wonder how many jobs they will bring? 
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on October 24, 2016, 17:59:52 PM
Those who feel that the NHS was promised £350m a week in a post-Brexit Britain will certainly feel that we were promised an exit from the single market, not just the EU.


I don't remember seeing the second point on the bus
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on October 24, 2016, 18:05:21 PM

Encouraging news.  I wonder how many jobs they will bring?


several hundred I'm sure, they currently employ 507 here
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on October 24, 2016, 18:51:19 PM
The Canadian free trade deal with the EU appears to have fallen through due to Wallonia's concerns, it's going to be fun negotiating the UK deal, hopefully have something in place by 2112.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on October 24, 2016, 19:55:58 PM
Nicola Horlick has joined the Lib Dems, because of their Europhile position.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 24, 2016, 20:50:58 PM
The Canadian free trade deal with the EU appears to have fallen through due to Wallonia's concerns, it's going to be fun negotiating the UK deal, hopefully have something in place by 2112.
I think we may have a better chance, on our own, of negotiating a deal with Canada before 2024.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on October 24, 2016, 23:07:18 PM

I don't remember seeing the second point on the bus

Neither do I, but I do recall seeing it affirmed unambiguously by prominent campaigners on both sides of the argument. David Cameron, Angela Leadsom, Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, George Osborne. All of them stated unambiguously that we would leave the single market following a Brexit vote, with the exception of Angela Leadsom who to be fair only described this as "almost certain".
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on October 24, 2016, 23:10:05 PM
The Canadian free trade deal with the EU appears to have fallen through due to Wallonia's concerns, it's going to be fun negotiating the UK deal, hopefully have something in place by 2112.

Well the UK deal at least is not likely to be scuppered by some remote region in continental Europe, whose officials are accountable to exactly no-one in the UK, exercising a veto. A rather elegant demonstration of one reason we're better off out.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 24, 2016, 23:57:54 PM
Well the UK deal at least is not likely to be scuppered by some remote region in continental Europe, whose officials are accountable to exactly no-one in the UK, exercising a veto. A rather elegant demonstration of one reason we're better off out.
Yes, what was it that was said by the Remain campaign about the superior negotiating power of a huge trading bloc such as the EU - one of their team stuck the ball in their own net on this occasion.
"Allez, les Walloons!"
 :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on October 25, 2016, 08:04:30 AM
I think the Wallonia barrier demonstrates how individual EU members have control over trade deals and that they are still free to make many decisions themselves. Wasn't that one of the arguments for leaving the EU, that we had lost our sovereignty?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on October 25, 2016, 08:31:32 AM
I think the Wallonia barrier demonstrates how individual EU members have control over trade deals and that they are still free to make many decisions themselves. Wasn't that one of the arguments for leaving the EU, that we had lost our sovereignty?

Absolutely....

I think much of that historically has been the government's (various) lack of backbone in standing up to the EU and particularly the ECoHR

Despite what others on here say, if the vote was run again we would see a different outcome - and no, I'm not advocating another vote, merely pointing out the breadth of feeling across the country.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on October 25, 2016, 08:44:49 AM
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit01.pdf
Quite a decent read here for how our options stand now - written before the vote by the London School of Economics - nice to actually read something about the whole scenario without a slant or over-exaggeration in either direction. Factually based with no emotion - pity the referendum wasn't carried out in a similar way.......by both sides........
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on October 25, 2016, 09:13:17 AM
Neither do I, but I do recall seeing it affirmed unambiguously by prominent campaigners on both sides of the argument. David Cameron, Angela Leadsom, Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, George Osborne. All of them stated unambiguously that we would leave the single market following a Brexit vote, with the exception of Angela Leadsom who to be fair only described this as "almost certain".


Boris didn't seem to be saying that on the 26th June in the Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/


"Icannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be. There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment. EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU. British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market."
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 25, 2016, 11:28:31 AM
I think the Wallonia barrier demonstrates how individual EU members have control over trade deals and that they are still free to make many decisions themselves. Wasn't that one of the arguments for leaving the EU, that we had lost our sovereignty?
Well it certainly shows that there are still factions within the EU that will not allow the EU to speak fo them. I suspect this is the tip of the iceberg with many more prepared to show dissent given the opportunity. A colossal amount of time wasted, not to mention the money. An example of how the EU's 'one size fits all' approach is doomed to failure.
Juncker et al must be spewing. I understand the point about sovereignty but it's a very expensive exercise in illustrating the EU still has the capacity to listen to member states.
Not how I'd choose to UK taxpayer's money spent.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on October 25, 2016, 12:28:47 PM
Microsoft raising prices in the UK by up to 22% because of the slump in Sterling's value

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/24/microsoft-office-british-business-pound-slump-eu-referendum
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on October 25, 2016, 12:32:14 PM
I think we may have a better chance, on our own, of negotiating a deal with Canada before 2024.


perhaps so, tho currently they export to the UK 2x the value of what we export to them.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on October 25, 2016, 12:51:42 PM
Zac Goldsmith has resigned the Tory whip over LHR expansion.


So will there be a by-election, and if so will Goldsmith stand as an independent against a Tory candidate?  Richmond Park is made up of the sort of metropolitan graduate class who voted Remain, so I would not bet against an opportunist Lib Dem win.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on October 25, 2016, 13:39:44 PM

perhaps so, tho currently they export to the UK 2x the value of what we export to them.


not sure how valid that statistic is bearing in mind the EU is 6 far greater than the UK.  What proportion of the EU's exports go to the UK and vice versa might be more valid?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on October 25, 2016, 13:44:19 PM

53% of UKs exports went to the EU in 2015

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/ (https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/)




The UK exported 13% of its GDP to the EU and the EU exported 3% of its GDP to the EU


% of UKs exports went to the EU in 2015
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on October 25, 2016, 14:43:26 PM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-heathrow-third-runway-decision-deleted-post-against-expansion-a7379251.html

Is the lady for turning then?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on October 25, 2016, 18:15:57 PM

Despite what others on here say, if the vote was run again we would see a different outcome - and no, I'm not advocating another vote, merely pointing out the breadth of feeling across the country.

Yes, i think you are right, the sheer size of the task ahead is frightening and perhaps not possible. The schisms it has opened up amongst families, communities, North/South, Scotland/Wales, Northern Ireland just doesn't seem sensible in the slightest. To me its glaringly obvious we are going to be worse off as a society than we were before and worse off economically. The business case of cost/benefits has never been published, wish we could stop this madness.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on October 25, 2016, 20:40:55 PM
Yes, i think you are right, the sheer size of the task ahead is frightening and perhaps not possible. The schisms it has opened up amongst families, communities, North/South, Scotland/Wales, Northern Ireland just doesn't seem sensible in the slightest. To me its glaringly obvious we are going to be worse off as a society than we were before and worse off economically. The business case of cost/benefits has never been published, wish we could stop this madness.
Business cases when they are put forward quite often aren't worth the paper they're printed on. I should know I've been involved in plenty... ;)

Neither is it glaringly obvious that we'll be worse off. There may well be short term pain, but the future, well who knows? Nobody knows!
The European banking system is extremely fragile and could well topple Europe into a worse downturn than 2008, but the powers that be are to focussed on driving to closer integration to worry about things like that. All it needed was for Europe to have granted Cameron some serious concessions and things may well have been different, but they didn't - and wouldn't - for fear of encouraging other European countries - especially the likes of Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands to jump on the bandwagon. The EU project must run its course to full integration. Nothing else matters.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on October 25, 2016, 20:48:03 PM
Cameron claimed that the EU had moved, his mistake was offering a referendum to satisfy the Eurosceptics in his party.... a serious misjudgment it seems
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on October 25, 2016, 21:46:26 PM
53% of UKs exports went to the EU in 2015

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/ (https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/)




The UK exported 13% of its GDP to the EU and the EU exported 3% of its GDP to the EU


% of UKs exports went to the EU in 2015
Wonder why that might be ?

I remember Arthur Scargill was once confused by the fact that if you make 100 larger by ten percent you get 110, make 110 smaller by ten percent and you don't get back to a 100.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on October 25, 2016, 22:28:51 PM
Absolutely....

I think much of that historically has been the government's (various) lack of backbone in standing up to the EU and particularly the ECoHR

Despite what others on here say, if the vote was run again we would see a different outcome - and no, I'm not advocating another vote, merely pointing out the breadth of feeling across the country.

And if it were run again in two years' time, perhaps after a few German banks have failed and another few hundred thousand migrant chancers have turned up on Europe's borders, another outcome again. It's a "so what", really, even if you could substantiate it.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on October 25, 2016, 22:33:21 PM

Boris didn't seem to be saying that on the 26th June in the Telegraph

That was three days after the referendum, so influenced no-one's vote - and in any case Boris refers there to "access to the single market", not membership of it. The point is that those of us who voted to leave the EU did so with a high degree of confidence that the UK would leave the single market, as I fervently hope.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on October 25, 2016, 22:52:52 PM
Well I'm a paid up member of the Gloominati and struggle to see any meaningful strategy, still convinced there'll be a GE next year post triggering of Article 50.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on October 25, 2016, 23:58:41 PM
From a friend in the city... the French government are apparently offering London-based French bankers 8 years tax free if they return to Paris. This could get messy.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on October 26, 2016, 08:08:50 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/25/exclusive-leaked-recording-shows-what-theresa-may-really-thinks-about-brexit
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 26, 2016, 10:09:32 AM
From a friend in the city... the French government are apparently offering London-based French bankers 8 years tax free if they return to Paris. This could get messy.
Treachery from the French government? Quelle surprise. They're insanely jealous of Great Britain.
Preferential tax rates for bankers? I'd fully expect the farmers to try and burn La Defense to the ground - it could get messy  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on October 26, 2016, 10:31:30 AM
Well the PM did predict such things might happen before the Referendum when she spoke at Goldman Sachs ::)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on October 26, 2016, 19:30:26 PM
A No 10 spokesman said: “Britain made a clear choice to vote to leave the EU and this government is determined to make a success of the fresh opportunities it presents."

And yet they haven't actually told us of a single real opportunity that Brexit presents.

Unless you count the 'opportunity' to negotiate trade agreements with countries where we already have preferential trade status or most preferred nation trade status and the only way they can be negotiated is backwards from what we already have.


Plus todays leaked tape of Teresa May's real thoughts.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/25/exclusive-leaked-recording-shows-what-theresa-may-really-thinks-about-brexit

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on October 26, 2016, 19:46:36 PM
Some poor automotive results hit by the weak pound and likely to push car prices up in the UK.

https://www.ft.com/content/24bfb2ee-9b56-11e6-8f9b-70e3cabccfae
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on October 26, 2016, 22:03:38 PM
Vauxhall (GM ) also claiming that the fall in the pound has cost the company 400 million and redundancies may be on the cards.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on October 26, 2016, 23:34:17 PM
And yet when Sterling is at high levels they don't come up with: We're making more money and setting people on.
Maybe people have finally twigged that Vauxhall make shit cars?

So much negativity from people, if Brexit is that bad, how come all the economic migrants posing as wannabe school kids are still clamouring to get here? Get 'em building the new runway at Heathrow and bury cry-baby Zac in the foundations :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on October 27, 2016, 00:17:44 AM
most of the refugees/migrants want to go Germany and Sweden, not here
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on October 27, 2016, 09:37:57 AM
And yet when Sterling is at high levels they don't come up with: We're making more money and setting people on.
Maybe people have finally twigged that Vauxhall make shit cars?

So much negativity from people, if Brexit is that bad, how come all the economic migrants posing as wannabe school kids are still clamouring to get here? Get 'em building the new runway at Heathrow and bury cry-baby Zac in the foundations :)


Ah yes.  The Richmond Park by-election will be interesting.  Goldsmith is not going to be opposed by the Tories - I guess they know they have his vote most of the time as an Independent - but I reckon the Lib Dems could steam in there.  Lots of Bremainers in Richmond could take this opportunity to protest against the Government line. 
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on October 27, 2016, 09:47:28 AM
most of the refugees/migrants want to go Germany and Sweden, not here

How much is that to do with the likes of Merkel et al throwing out an open invite? 
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on October 27, 2016, 09:56:53 AM
most of the refugees/migrants want to go Germany and Sweden, not here
But Brexit was supposed to put the pesky blighters off! That's why the great unwashed voted for it...

GDP growth better than expected post Brexit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37786467

If any Bremoaners tell you that the UK has slipped a place in the World Economy list, it hasn't, even the BBC are reporting that it hasn't: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37763913
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on October 27, 2016, 10:01:53 AM


If any Bremoaners tell you that the UK has slipped a place in the World Economy list, it hasn't, even the BBC are reporting that it hasn't: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37763913 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37763913)
 


Yeah, I thought that pronouncement was premature.  I don't trust a word out of Corbyn's mouth anyway.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 27, 2016, 11:05:45 AM

GDP growth better than expected post Brexit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37786467 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37786467)
All pointing to a fairly benign Brexit effect....so far.

If any Bremoaners tell you that the UK has slipped a place in the World Economy list, it hasn't, even the BBC are reporting that it hasn't: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37763913 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37763913)
Ha! Former Trade Minister 'Lord' Livingstone appears to be a Remoaner, gleefully wishing the worst for the UK economy. Bit too eager on this proclamation, I think. Well, he was the boss of BT, so he knows a bit about getting things wrong.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on October 27, 2016, 11:39:00 AM
Now Labour front-benchers are calling for their Party not to stand in Richmond Park, to maximise the chance of a Lib Dem win.  Goldsmith is damaged after his failed Mayoral bid and a lot of people will remember with distaste his dog-whistle campaign tactics against Sadiq Khan.


The Grauniad says this could be an opportunity for a new type of progressive party joint resistance to Hard Brexit. (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/26/richmond-park-byelection-brexit-zac-goldsmith-pro-european)  I can't see the Lib Dems getting into bed with Corbynite Labour, particularly after the big swing to them in Witney.  They would do better to keep accumulating council seats and activists, while sneaking the odd by-election win before the next GE.


But these are strange days.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on October 27, 2016, 11:45:40 AM
On a positive note, Nissan are opening a new line to build the Qashqai up in Sunderland. (https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/oct/27/uk-gdp-growth-figures-brexit-impact-economy-business-live)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on October 27, 2016, 12:20:03 PM
On a positive note, Nissan are opening a new line to build the Qashqai up in Sunderland. (https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/oct/27/uk-gdp-growth-figures-brexit-impact-economy-business-live)
Dang, just going to post that too.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on October 27, 2016, 12:29:34 PM
The irony is fierce strong with this one...


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/26/eus-tough-post-brexit-stance-puts-politics-over-prosperity-says-liam-fox
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 27, 2016, 12:51:31 PM
On a positive note, Nissan are opening a new line to build the Qashqai up in Sunderland. (https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/oct/27/uk-gdp-growth-figures-brexit-impact-economy-business-live)
;D
Carlos Ghosn = 'bullshit merchant'
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on October 27, 2016, 12:55:42 PM
;D
Carlos Ghosn = 'bullshit merchant'


Those treacherous, jealous French bas****s again committing to maintain jobs and livelihoods in the North East of England.  With enemies like these, who needs friends ?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 27, 2016, 12:59:08 PM
The irony is fierce strong with this one...


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/26/eus-tough-post-brexit-stance-puts-politics-over-prosperity-says-liam-fox (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/26/eus-tough-post-brexit-stance-puts-politics-over-prosperity-says-liam-fox)
The EU put politics over everything - which is why, in my view, we're better off out. No irony in the majority of voters feeling the same way about that.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 27, 2016, 13:02:38 PM

Those treacherous, jealous French bas****s again committing to maintain jobs and livelihoods in the North East of England.  With enemies like these, who needs friends ?
He's not fully treacherous- just 33.3%  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on October 27, 2016, 13:03:25 PM
The EU put politics over everything - which is why, in my view, we're better off out. No irony in the majority of voters feeling the same way about that.


Brexit could be defined as "putting politics over everything".  And Fox was a leading campainger for Brexit. The man bleeds irony!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on October 27, 2016, 13:06:00 PM
He's not fully treacherous- just 33.3%  ;)


perhaps  :) , but I'm not just talking about him, but the parent organisation of the the company who've just made the decision.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on October 27, 2016, 13:23:40 PM
I wonder whether Nissan have been given  a nod and a wink about access to the single market or whether the government have agreed to compensate the car firm for any tariffs imposed post brexit. 


According to the article....


Last month, he warned that Nissan might not invest in the Sunderland plant unless the government guaranteed compensation for costs related to any new trade tariffs resulting from Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 27, 2016, 13:31:23 PM

Brexit could be defined as "putting politics over everything". 
Or it could be defined as:
Regaining control over immigration policy
Saving money on membership fee
Regaining sovreignty
Refusal to embark on greater integration
Retaining control over taxation
Preventing the UK from bailing out failing EU economies
Reducing bureaucracy for small business
Refusing to penalise developing economies with protectionist trade policies
etc, etc
Oh! And sticking it to those federalist nutters, Juncker, Shultz, Verhofstat et al
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on October 27, 2016, 13:37:38 PM
Or it could be defined as:
Regaining control over immigration policy
Saving money on membership fee
Regaining sovreignty
Refusal to embark on greater integration
Retaining control over taxation
Preventing the UK from bailing out failing EU economies
Reducing bureaucracy for small business
Refusing to penalise developing economies with protectionist trade policies
etc, etc
Oh! And sticking it to those federalist nutters, Juncker, Shultz, Verhofstat et al


tl/dr - putting politics over everything
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 27, 2016, 13:44:07 PM
I wonder whether Nissan have been given  a nod and a wink about access to the single market or whether the government have agreed to compensate the car firm for any tariffs imposed post brexit. 


According to the article....


Last month, he warned that Nissan might not invest in the Sunderland plant unless the government guaranteed compensation for costs related to any new trade tariffs resulting from Brexit.
I wonder. To base such a decision on a 'nod & a wink' (over our membership of the single market) would be rather foolish considering negotiations have not even started. Nissan (would appear to) have made a long-term decision based on the cost of an alternative, in my opinion.
More likely she's promised compensation which hopefully will not be required (I think it may currently be the most efficient car plant in europe).
Whatever, it's a blow for the Remoaners.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on October 27, 2016, 14:20:20 PM

Brexit could be defined as "putting politics over everything".  And Fox was a leading campainger for Brexit. The man bleeds irony!
Maybe, he knows as a politician that he's a public servant, so he's now doing what the public want :)
Let's put the politics of our country above that of the politics of Europe, let's all join together in the community of the realm.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 27, 2016, 14:23:43 PM
Maybe, he knows as a politician that he's a public servant, so he's now doing what the public want :)
Let's put the politics of our country above that of the politics of Europe, let's all join together in the community of the realm.
Extremely well put, my man  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on October 27, 2016, 15:03:20 PM
Maybe, he knows as a politician that he's a public servant, so he's now doing what the public want :)
Let's put the politics of our country above that of the politics of Europe, let's all join together in the community of the realm.




Hmm, I'd say that his mandate is to do what his constituents want.  Anyway how does he know what the public want?  There has been no Referendum on the type of Brexit to pursue, and there should be.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on October 27, 2016, 15:47:11 PM

More likely she's promised compensation which hopefully will not be required (I think it may currently be the most efficient car plant in europe).


Good news for Sunderland, however if there has been compensation promised then all UK manufactures should get the same, you cant be giving aid to individual companies or industries and not others.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 27, 2016, 16:25:43 PM
Good news for Sunderland, however if there has been compensation promised then all UK manufactures should get the same, you cant be giving aid to individual companies or industries and not others.
That's true, she could jolly well be hoisted on her own petard if that is the case - let's just hope Mr Ghosn could see how well the economy is doing in comparison to others and realised there could be a bright future ahead for UK plc.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on October 27, 2016, 16:32:39 PM
Maybe, he knows as a politician that he's a public servant, so he's now doing what the public want :)
Let's put the politics of our country above that of the politics of Europe, let's all join together in the community of the realm.


Doing what some of the public wants - yes the majority of people perhaps who got of their asses to vote but really who knows what even they wanted
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 27, 2016, 18:21:24 PM

Doing what some of the public wants - yes the majority of people perhaps who got of their asses to vote but really who knows what even they wanted
::) 
Classic 'Remoaning'  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 27, 2016, 18:50:14 PM
Stop press! Ceta back on as Wallonia given 'safeguards' to protect their farmers. Juncker and Tusk are getting plastered.
They'd better hope the other 27 countries are happy about Wallonia's 'concessions'.

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on October 27, 2016, 18:59:41 PM
::) 
Classic 'Remoaning'  ;)


Telling the truth?






Vultures everywhere. .




https://www.siliconrepublic.com/business/brexit-european-medicines-agency-ema-european-banking-authority-eba

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on October 27, 2016, 19:04:16 PM
I wonder whether Nissan have been given  a nod and a wink about access to the single market or whether the government have agreed to compensate the car firm for any tariffs imposed post brexit. 


According to the article....


Last month, he warned that Nissan might not invest in the Sunderland plant unless the government guaranteed compensation for costs related to any new trade tariffs resulting from Brexit.

Both sides deny the suggestion that Nissan will receive state aid or compensation, or has had a special deal. Was quite amused to hear one of Labour's front bench team floundering in an interview about it earlier - just not prepared to see a positive side in jobs being secured in the North East. Wanting to know what secret deal Nissan has had (no evidence of this at all) and complaining that the government is organising economic strategy post-Brexit with foreign companies individually, or sector by sector (no evidence for that either). For a party that, especially at the moment, is deeply, toxically interventionist, I found that quite laughable.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on October 27, 2016, 19:07:51 PM
Good news for Sunderland, however if there has been compensation promised then all UK manufactures should get the same, you cant be giving aid to individual companies or industries and not others.

The government has confirmed that that is not happening, and I agree with you on that. But actually it's the sort of thing that some people expect all the time - take the steel industry, for example. And, to be fair, the banks.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 27, 2016, 19:37:33 PM
For a party that, especially at the moment, is deeply, toxically interventionist, I found that quite laughable.
The party bleeds irony  ;D ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on October 27, 2016, 20:17:25 PM
Now Labour front-benchers are calling for their Party not to stand in Richmond Park, to maximise the chance of a Lib Dem win.

I hadn't heard that.

A week ago Corbyn, or whatever mouth-breathing left-wing clown runs his social media accounts, was crowing that Labour had taken Batley and Spen with 85% of the vote - not a mention anywhere in his post that all of the other main parties had decided not to stand, because of the circumstances of the by-election. So presumably when they get 0% of the vote in Richmond Park, we'll be entitled to take to Twitter and Facebook to say that Corbyn's Labour was wiped out by the voters.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on October 27, 2016, 20:21:13 PM

Doing what some of the public wants - yes the majority of people perhaps who got of their asses to vote but really who knows what even they wanted
And who knows what the Bremoaners really want?
How much do they really know and understand about the aims of the EU?
How much do they know about the running and governance of the EU?

I wouldn't give house room to most of the barely educated filth who voted for Brexit, nor would I give house room to the supposedly educated liberal pussies who burst into tears because they won't be able to wrap themselves in the EU flag anymore. I'm just satisfied we got what I think is the right result even if for the wrong reasons.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on October 27, 2016, 21:03:26 PM
And who knows what the Bremoaners really want?
How much do they really know and understand about the aims of the EU?
How much do they know about the running and governance of the EU?

I wouldn't give house room to most of the barely educated filth who voted for Brexit, nor would I give house room to the supposedly educated liberal pussies who burst into tears because they won't be able to wrap themselves in the EU flag anymore. I'm just satisfied we got what I think is the right result even if for the wrong reasons.


True, the whole thing was a farce.  How can it be democratic when the majority on both sides didn't have a clue what they were voting for? Far too complex a question with such a multitude of consequences that it should never have been a question for a referendum.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on October 27, 2016, 21:57:36 PM
The plot thickens in Richmond Park as UKIP say they will not stand and throw their weight behind Goldsmith.


So it looks like Zac / UKIP vs. Lib Dems / Labour / maybe Greens.


Zac has screwed this up. He wants to make this a referendum on LHR expansion when the LDs are passionately against airport expansion in the South East.  So it will be about Brexit and most Richmonders are 48ers.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on October 27, 2016, 22:13:56 PM

True, the whole thing was a farce.  How can it be democratic when the majority on both sides didn't have a clue what they were voting for? Far too complex a question with such a multitude of consequences that it should never have been a question for a referendum.

It's not a hard question. Should we be in the EU, or not? That's the question. For some reason you didn't seem to have any trouble formulating an answer Dom, but for some reason you suppose that others have great difficulty with it.

One thing we can be sure we were voting for was to leave the single market. Prominent politicians on both sides of the argument made that crystal clear.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on October 27, 2016, 22:14:48 PM
The plot thickens in Richmond Park as UKIP say they will not stand and throw their weight behind Goldsmith.


So it looks like Zac / UKIP vs. Lib Dems / Labour / maybe Greens.


Zac has screwed this up. He wants to make this a referendum on LHR expansion when the LDs are passionately against airport expansion in the South East.  So it will be about Brexit

Why?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on October 27, 2016, 22:36:02 PM
Why?
Because the majority of Richmonders voted Remain and will use this by-election as a protest vote.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on October 28, 2016, 09:48:08 AM
Futile to protest against the democratically expressed will of the British People, really. I think it will be about the Heathrow expansion.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 28, 2016, 13:45:58 PM
Interesting to see that France will struggle to hit yearly GDP growth target after  missing expectations for Q3 (0.2% actual). Contrast with 'Remoaner-defying' Q3 figure of 0.5% for UK. Hopefully the trend will continue.
Make us pay more for their wine? I don't think so.
"Allez les Rosbifs!"
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on October 28, 2016, 14:00:18 PM
Interesting to see that France will struggle to hit yearly GDP growth target after  missing expectations for Q3 (0.2% actual). Contrast with 'Remoaner-defying' Q3 figure of 0.5% for UK. Hopefully the trend will continue.
Make us pay more for their wine? I don't think so.
"Allez les Rosbifs!"


Try again when the UK has actually left the EU.  Good try though!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 28, 2016, 14:04:37 PM

Try again when the UK has actually left the EU.  Good try though!
Classic 'Remoaning'  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on October 29, 2016, 07:16:25 AM
Futile to protest against the democratically expressed will of the British People, really. I think it will be about the Heathrow expansion.
So it was futile for people to vote Tory during the Blair government? That government was the democratically expressed will of the people, wasn't it? Are you sure that the May plan represents the will of the people, especially when so many say they would change their Referendum vote to Remain?



But you could be right on your second point. Despite 70% of Richmond Park having voted Remain, and despite both candidates opposing Heathrow expansion it seems from my twitter feeds that this will be the issue.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 29, 2016, 13:36:47 PM
So it was futile for people to vote Tory during the Blair government? That government was the democratically expressed will of the people, wasn't it? Are you sure that the May plan represents the will of the people, especially when so many say they would change their Referendum vote to Remain?

The most recent YouGov poll shows there is still a narrow majority for Leave. In addition over 50% believe Theresa May is doing a good job in terms of handling Brexit as opposed to around 25% who say she isn't.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on October 30, 2016, 17:02:23 PM
So it looks as if a "special" deal was done with Nissan, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37815864

So now BREXIT is going to cause further ructions between UK manufacturing businesses, banks and automotive industry will be cushioned while the rest can swing. Boris and co. have really done the country over.
So the apparent good news from the leavers is nothing more than a favourable subsidy. Don't forget Renault has a 44% stake in Nissan, so we are indirectly subsidising them as well.

The best deal was the deal we had , still waiting for good news from the leavers.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on October 30, 2016, 17:26:17 PM
Don't forget Renault has a 44% stake in Nissan
Probably all done through illegal subsidies from the French Government. Never, ever trust anything the French do.

Mind, if I were in charge Nissan wouldn't be making any cars in the UK and we wouldn't be importing Renault - or indeed any French cars - as I would have a Ministry of Aesthetics and the ugly products of these companies would be banned. They almost make the Austin Allegro look good...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on October 30, 2016, 17:32:36 PM
Meanwhile the French speaking Canadians have completed their 7 year CETA negotiations and now have a market of 508 million people to target with 98% of tariffs removed. We are in reverse.

I'll concede the Citroen Cactus to Nickslikk, hope we haven't lost the design plans to the Austin Princess.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on October 30, 2016, 18:53:06 PM
Probably all done through illegal subsidies from the French Government. Never, ever trust anything the French do.

Mind, if I were in charge Nissan wouldn't be making any cars in the UK and we wouldn't be importing Renault - or indeed any French cars - as I would have a Ministry of Aesthetics and the ugly products of these companies would be banned. They almost make the Austin Allegro look good...


Makes you wonder how they manage to sell so many cars.



Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on October 30, 2016, 20:22:38 PM

Makes you wonder how they manage to sell so many cars.
Look at the sort of music that sells...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on October 30, 2016, 20:30:25 PM
Meanwhile the French speaking Canadians have completed their 7 year CETA negotiations and now have a market of 508 million people to target with 98% of tariffs removed.
But they always did have a market of 508 million to target. It's just that some of their products and services now have lower tariffs on them. Be interesting to see what the 2% covers. Capital has been flowing freely into the EU - specifically the UK - from Canadian pension funds for years now
Are you going to buy more Maple syrup? Coon skin caps? Birch Bark canoes?


Quote
We are in reverse.
No we're not. I'm sure that in a post Brexit world the denizens of the Bright Dominion of Canadia can use this deal as a framework for a UK/Canuck deal.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on October 30, 2016, 22:27:13 PM
The Ceta deal is great news for the Remoaners and shows just what can be achieved after 7 years of negotiations.
Big blow for the Brexiteers who thought that it was not possible to get an agreement. Tusk and Juncker will be getting 'mullered' tonight, for sure.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on October 31, 2016, 17:56:47 PM

Are you going to buy more Maple syrup? Coon skin caps? Birch Bark canoes?


Going to buy more Rush, duty free New Rush (somewhat knackered by the collapse of Sterling).
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 01, 2016, 13:28:57 PM
Go Polly!


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/31/nissan-comfort-letter-car-brexit

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 01, 2016, 20:05:06 PM
Go Polly!


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/31/nissan-comfort-letter-car-brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/31/nissan-comfort-letter-car-brexit)
You need to disguise the link, Dom. I'm sure I'm not the only one that sees that it's a Guardian story and ignores it  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 01, 2016, 20:32:09 PM
Go Polly!


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/31/nissan-comfort-letter-car-brexit
I saw the word "Polly" and vomited copiously, that woman is the mother of Satan.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 01, 2016, 22:42:05 PM
You should both read it and provide counter arguments rather than dismissing it out of hand.


I suppose everyone who disagrees with Nick is related to Satan in some way.


What does that make me?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 01, 2016, 23:37:22 PM
You should both read it and provide counter arguments rather than dismissing it out of hand.
When the totally bonkers Polly does the same, I might think about it. Might.


Quote
I suppose everyone who disagrees with Nick is related to Satan in some way.
Really? That would mean they are family, for I am Old Nick :)


Quote
What does that make me?
Your number is 667


Interesting article in the D**ly M**l financial pages today about how Canadian Pension funds make good returns by investing in UK infrastructure projects, whilst British pension funds have vast sums of money they'd like to invest, but can't due to EU Solvency II laws which mean they have to hold more capital back.
If the EU are happy to drop 98% of tariffs on trade with Canada and not require freedom of labour movement, why can't they do the same for us? They just have to imagine that we're 4,000 miles away, but easily reachable by Hypersonic trains.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 02, 2016, 00:13:26 AM
So it was futile for people to vote Tory during the Blair government? That government was the democratically expressed will of the people, wasn't it?

It's a comparison that doesn't being to make sense, Rob. Voting Tory during the Blair government offered a possibility of a change of government - we have a General Election every five years (four or five at that time). That government was elected under the democratically expressed will of the people for the duration of one parliament, because that's what they voted for.

Quote
Are you sure that the May plan represents the will of the people, especially when so many say they would change their Referendum vote to Remain?

The will of the people was assessed, following a long process in which each side was given endless opportunity to express its case, on June 23rd. I don't know what the May plan is exactly and there are good reasons for it not to be exposed, given that we are entering a period of negotiations. But the following bullet points certainly apply:



Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 02, 2016, 00:16:19 AM
You need to disguise the link, Dom. I'm sure I'm not the only one that sees that it's a Guardian story and ignores it  ;)

Yes. Silly, silly cow. Typical of the Left though - they like democracy when it suits them, otherwise they're as illiberal as the Nazis.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 02, 2016, 07:04:55 AM
Yes. Silly, silly cow. Typical of the Left though - they like democracy when it suits them, otherwise they're as illiberal as the Nazis.
An intolerance of the views of 'others' seems to be a feature of many that align themselves with the Left. Unfortunately this is sometimes expressed vehemently (and violently) by disruptive direct action protests against those with whom they disagree (some of the vitriolic outpourings towards Brexiteers, another example, from that creed). Some seem to be gripped by a 'romanticism' that they associate with being part of a reactionary movement (see Corbynistas).
As long as the ideology is far removed from the views of the majority of the UK electorate, which it surely is, they will be nothing more than a (very) noisy irritant helping to ensure that Labour remain unelectable (ask Bliar).
Polly (probably) just about has the sense to realise this which is why she spends her time preaching to her own disciples in the Guardian. She seems to think it's better to be a big, nonsense-spouting, fish in a small pond than a small fish in a large pond full of common-sense.


Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on November 02, 2016, 08:36:56 AM
The Ceta deal is great news for the Remoaners and shows just what can be achieved after 7 years of negotiations.
Big blow for the Brexiteers who thought that it was not possible to get an agreement. Tusk and Juncker will be getting 'mullered' tonight, for sure.


Eh?  This Remoaner is hanging on to the thought that we might get a CETA type deal by the time we Brexit!  So it is terrible news that it took the Canucks seven years.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on November 02, 2016, 08:50:49 AM
Anyway, now there will be no standards in place to prevent Rush exporting their poor quality music ever since <<insert album where you think Rush jumped the shark, in my case Power Windows>> to the EU.  Boo!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: BasspedalMan on November 02, 2016, 12:08:04 PM
Perhaps the CETA Deal can be seen as an example for 'commonwealth' countries. I am sure that the UK could cope with 2% tariffs on certain goods. Also a good point was made about how Canadian (and other foreign) pension funds happily invest in our infrastructure whilst our own pension investors are prevented from doing so by EU Rules. I was just on the remain side of the fence but I actually now think that the EU will be screwed up by the eventual disintegration of the EURO along with the dissatisfaction building in other countries about the level of financial accountability within the European Commission. I'm not scared of Brexit given the other far more scary things going on in the world. Being hitched to the EU when that ship finally sinks would be an utter disaster.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on November 03, 2016, 08:41:16 AM
It's a comparison that doesn't being to make sense, Rob. Voting Tory during the Blair government offered a possibility of a change of government - we have a General Election every five years (four or five at that time). That government was elected under the democratically expressed will of the people for the duration of one parliament, because that's what they voted for.

Fair enough.


Quote
The will of the people was assessed, following a long process in which each side was given endless opportunity to express its case, on June 23rd. I don't know what the May plan is exactly and there are good reasons for it not to be exposed, given that we are entering a period of negotiations. But the following bullet points certainly apply:

  • we voted to leave the EU
  • both sides made clear that this means leaving the Single Market

That was not clear to me.  The words "Single Market" did not appear in the Referendum question. I thought that there were various types of possible Brexit available for negotiation including the Norway model, Swiss model, the EU-Turkey Customs Union arrangement and CETA.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on November 03, 2016, 10:25:02 AM
The High Court has ruled that Parliament must vote on triggering Article 50. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37857785)

Nearly all Labour MPs, all Scottish Nationalists and all eight Lib Dems will vote against the Government.  Just fifty Tory rebels can sink Hard Brexit, and there are probably a hundred pro-EU Tories.


Wonder if this will swing the Richmond Park election to the Lib Dems - they voted 77% to Remain, and they have one of the most Eurosceptic of MPs.


The Government is expected to appeal against the decision.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 03, 2016, 11:07:18 AM
Parliamentary democracy 1 - Authoritarian Government 0
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 03, 2016, 11:54:05 AM
An election before any parliamentary vote on Brexit should sort out those MPs that treat the electorate with such contempt.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 03, 2016, 12:35:55 PM
An election before any parliamentary vote on Brexit should sort out those MPs that treat the electorate with such contempt.




Will MPS whose own electorate voted against Brexit be entitled to vote as the majority of their own constituents did?


I don't think it's about yes/no at this stage though, that has gone. But it is about ensuring that the terms of the exit are debated and agreed upon. That sounds perfectly right and reasonable to me.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on November 03, 2016, 13:08:44 PM
An election before any parliamentary vote on Brexit should sort out those MPs that treat the electorate with such contempt.


Mrs May could go to the country if she fails to get enough support from her own MPs.  Though many people who voted Leave now want to change their vote. I could see some Northern Labour seats falling to UKIP.
Seems more likely to me that they will kick the can down the road for a while then eventually work out some watered-down form of Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 03, 2016, 14:39:08 PM
  Though many people who voted Leave now want to change their vote.
Not sure where you're getting that from (Guardian?). You are discounting all the people who voted to Remain for fear of "immediate and profound effects on the economy" -  that would now vote to Leave.
This is just a spoiling tactic from the Remoaners. How can you possibly give a vote on triggering Article 50 before negotiations start?? The EU say there will be no negotiations before it is triggered, so to try to guess the outcome of negotiations is futile. What the Remoaners want is to delay the exit as long as possible in the hope that the government will cave in and pursue Brexit-lite.
We should have a second referendum - let's call it a general election and have a clearout of all those craven MPs that think this country is too weak to stand on its own feet. I trust the British people would do the right thing....again.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on November 03, 2016, 15:53:11 PM
Not sure where you're getting that from (Guardian?). You are discounting all the people who voted to Remain for fear of "immediate and profound effects on the economy" -  that would now vote to Leave.


The Express said 1.13 million Leavers now want to Remain and "thousands" of Remainers now want to Leave (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/684527/EU-referendum-voters-changing-their-minds-Leave-Remain-Bregret-Brexit-European-Union). 

[/size]To be fair I think even Brenialers would be experiencing "immediate and profound effects" if Carney had not dumped £80B of quantitative easing in.

[/font]This is just a spoiling tactic from the Remoaners. How can you possibly give a vote on triggering Article 50 before negotiations start?? The EU say there will be no negotiations before it is triggered, so to try to guess the outcome of negotiations is futile. What the Remoaners want is to delay the exit as long as possible in the hope that the government will cave in and pursue Brexit-lite.
We should have a second referendum - let's call it a general election and have a clearout of all those craven MPs that think this country is too weak to stand on its own feet. I trust the British people would do the right thing....again.



[/size]
[/size]I'm happy with another GE.  Some 500 of the 650 MPs are Remainers so it will be interesting.  Wonder if Goldsmith will survive, given that 77% of his constituents voted Leave?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 03, 2016, 15:57:40 PM
Cry Babies 1 - Community of the Realm 0
Fixed for TRUTH.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 03, 2016, 16:31:04 PM
Fixed for TRUTH.


Yes Nick I'm sure it is the TRUTH in your mind.


What is that Russian daily called - Pravda ?  I'm sure they believe it too!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on November 03, 2016, 17:02:45 PM
If Parliament has to enact an Article 50 Act, the Lords will get a say, and they do not answer to any constituents.


Poor old Brenialers. They wanted supremacy of Parliament over the EU, supremacy of British courts, and when the one is upheld by the other they squeal.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on November 03, 2016, 17:10:46 PM
I actually laughed when I saw the news earlier....

Cat well and truly among the pigeons  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 03, 2016, 18:41:55 PM
So the overpaid Canuck bean-counter is making predictions again. Based on his past performance, I can't believe anyone would take it seriously.
He's definitely got some brass neck, that's a fact.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 03, 2016, 20:18:53 PM

Yes Nick I'm sure it is the TRUTH in your mind.

It's as much truth as what you wrote.

Parliament is there as an expression of the will of the people. The people willed Brexit. If a Government doing the express will of the community of the realm is authoritarian, then I'd hate to read your dictionary :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 03, 2016, 20:38:25 PM
It's as much truth as what you wrote.

Parliament is there as an expression of the will of the people. The people willed Brexit. If a Government doing the express will of the community of the realm is authoritarian, then I'd hate to read your dictionary :)


I'd go along with that if it was 65% plus of the people but 52% is hardly a ringing endorsement.  But putting that to one side, the people chose Brexit but they certainly weren't able to give any indication judgement on what form of  Brexit should ensue.  This detail needs to be debated by parliament and not railroaded through by the government.  The government have no mandate to decide by themselves which form Brexit should take.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 03, 2016, 23:05:25 PM
That was not clear to me.  The words "Single Market" did not appear in the Referendum question. I thought that there were various types of possible Brexit available for negotiation including the Norway model, Swiss model, the EU-Turkey Customs Union arrangement and CETA.

You weren't paying attention then - Cameron, Osborne, Gove, Johnson and others made it explicitly clear that Brexit = no single market.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 03, 2016, 23:19:12 PM
Parliamentary democracy 1 - Authoritarian Government 0

Hm I see. So the democratically expressed will of the people in a free referendum in which both sides had months to make their case, then delivers a result that the government doesn't actually WANT is "authoritarian government".

This ruling is extremely problematic, because it provides parliament with the means to betray the people. It's no surprise or coincidence that those who have been most gratified by this ruling are those who don't actually want the UK to leave the EU. It's the old story of people believing passionately in democracy until it doesn't suit them, then they are quite happy to express contempt for it.

People of good character on both sides of the argument - because that argument has been won now, and the verdict delivered - will hope that the Supreme Court will overturn this ruling. But in the end I believe the people will win. 70% of voters in Labour constituencies voted for Brexit, it's in a shambolic state at the moment in any case, and if it comes to a General Election a strengthened and reinvigorated Conservative government will, ultimately, fulfil the wish of the people. And then I'm afraid the likes of Clegg, Miliband and Farron and the rest who want to live on their knees will have to find some other outlet to gratify their cowardice.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 03, 2016, 23:24:33 PM
If Parliament has to enact an Article 50 Act, the Lords will get a say, and they do not answer to any constituents.

Poor old Brenialers. They wanted supremacy of Parliament over the EU, supremacy of British courts, and when the one is upheld by the other they squeal.

The government has already ceded the question of membership of the EU to the people Rob. It is duty-bound to honour the people's instruction. If Parliament betrays the people it will sow seeds of disenfranchisement and disaffection that will ultimately exact a heavy price.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 04, 2016, 10:15:20 AM
It's a great thing that the UK has an independent and strong judiciary, not swayed by Government or Public opinion,  doing its job according to the facts.


No one is saying Brexit shouldn't happen, only that it should happen correctly, in accordance with the Law.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on November 04, 2016, 12:10:24 PM
The government has already ceded the question of membership of the EU to the people Rob. It is duty-bound to honour the people's instruction. If Parliament betrays the people it will sow seeds of disenfranchisement and disaffection that will ultimately exact a heavy price.


I would disagree with that.  They are sworn to the Crown, not the people, though they represent their constituents who elect them and can sack them at a later election.  Is Goldsmith honouring his constituents by supporting Leave?  Quite clearly not.  Brexit will still happen but now Parliament will be in control, according to the constitution, rather than the PM applying Royal prerogative.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 04, 2016, 13:26:53 PM
It's a great thing that the UK has an independent and strong judiciary, not swayed by Government or Public opinion,  doing its job according to the facts.

I hope that's true; recent events give me cause to doubt it.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 04, 2016, 13:30:17 PM

I would disagree with that.  They are sworn to the Crown, not the people, though they represent their constituents who elect them and can sack them at a later election.  Is Goldsmith honouring his constituents by supporting Leave?  Quite clearly not.  Brexit will still happen but now Parliament will be in control, according to the constitution, rather than the PM applying Royal prerogative.

So if a political party makes a promise in its manifesto, then is elected with a majority, there is no duty to carry it out? I disagree. We'll have to wait and see, but this could be rather messy. It's a shame the difficulties weren't foreseen I must admit, but then no-one could have expected the remainers to display such a squalid loathing for democracy, and in any case the government expected Remain to win all along. As I did until about 2:30AM on June 24th.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on November 04, 2016, 14:07:13 PM
So if a political party makes a promise in its manifesto, then is elected with a majority, there is no duty to carry it out?

There's plenty of precedent for that....
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on November 04, 2016, 16:03:41 PM
So if a political party makes a promise in its manifesto, then is elected with a majority, there is no duty to carry it out? I disagree. We'll have to wait and see, but this could be rather messy. It's a shame the difficulties weren't foreseen I must admit, but then no-one could have expected the remainers to display such a squalid loathing for democracy, and in any case the government expected Remain to win all along. As I did until about 2:30AM on June 24th.


I'd say 'honour' is a better word that 'duty' in this case. Did the LD have a duty to uphold their foolhardy promise to oppose tuition fees made in their 2010 manifesto, if it meant that universities would go to the wall as a result?

I also note the words of the philosopher and Tory MP Edmund Burke, on whose thought so much of our coonstitutional law is based, to the effect that he would uphold the will of his Bristol constituents, but his higher duty was to his own conscience and he would follow that first and foremost.

If nothing else the High Court ruling will get people to think about what democracy means in the U.K. Technically we are not a democracy, but a constitutional monarchy in which Parliament is sovereign - not the monarch and not the people.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 04, 2016, 16:10:08 PM
There's plenty of precedent for that....

There are some precedents for that, but not really on an instruction delivered by 17 million people of enormous constitutional importance.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 04, 2016, 16:21:29 PM
There are some precedents for that, but not really on an instruction delivered by 17 million people of enormous constitutional importance.


The score wasn't 17 million to nil you know.  It's as if the 16.1 million who voted to remain don't exist at all.  We're not talking Jeremy Corbyn levels of unanimity here.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 04, 2016, 18:59:15 PM
Can someone please explain what it is that Parliament has been given permission to approve?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on November 04, 2016, 21:36:10 PM
Can someone please explain what it is that Parliament has been given permission to approve?


Quite.  This legal decision has been brought about because a clan of bitter, petty Remainers dredged up a law from antiquity and chanced their arm, apparently motivated by little else but spite.  Utterly pointless and actually does far more harm than good to the functioning of our democracy.


I voted Remain and Leave won.  There wasn't an option for "Leave-But..".  So I expect the prevailing outcome to be implemented as soon as is practicable, without cynical filibustering tactics from those who clearly can't bring themselves to accept defeat.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on November 04, 2016, 22:03:00 PM
Matt, you're not correct there....EU directive requires UK legislation through an act of parliament to implement them.
The EU referendum wording was "Should the UK remain a member of the European Union?" iirc. The outcome of the referendum was that no, the UK should not.
That's fine. But that is all that the referendum asked.
What would not be fine is for May, together with Fox, Davis and Boris to decide (dictate) what path is taken in related areas such as trade - e.g. going for an EEA option or WTO rules option - without proper recourse to the democratic institution of the UK i.e. parliament. Quite how anyone (in the press, on this forum, wherever) can claim the judgement regarding A50 is anti-democratic and at the same time claim the outcome of the referendum was about sovereignty and democracy is baffling to say the least.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on November 04, 2016, 22:40:39 PM
What would not be fine is for May, together with Fox, Davis and Boris to decide (dictate) what path is taken in related areas such as trade - e.g. going for an EEA option or WTO rules option - without proper recourse to the democratic institution of the UK i.e. parliament.


They were voted into power to exercise that power all within the remit of that self-same democratic institution.  They are accountable to their respective constituents and the wider voting public and will stand or fall on their decisions.  They can't dictate by definition.  So it strikes me this ruling is trying to fix what isn't actually broken.


Quote
Quite how anyone (in the press, on this forum, wherever) can claim the judgement regarding A50 is anti-democratic and at the same time claim the outcome of the referendum was about sovereignty and democracy is baffling to say the least.


I'm not saying it's necessarily anti-democratic per se, just that it seems superfluous at best, and maliciously designed to create chaos and a conflict of interest at worst.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 04, 2016, 23:05:58 PM
Superfluous and designed to cause chaos?


That sounds like Brexit tbh !
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 04, 2016, 23:44:09 PM
Superfluous and designed to cause chaos?


That sounds like Brexit tbh !
Sounds like a federal European Superstate to me.

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 04, 2016, 23:46:26 PM
The time at which Parliament can be consulted over the form of the UK's leaving the EU can only be after negotiations have concluded.
Prior to that point in time the actual terms are unknown. The EU has repeatedly stated that no negotiations can take place before article 50 is triggered, so if parliamentary approval is required to trigger article 50, the nature of the preceding debate is academic. The government can only state their aims in those negotiations but for MPs to vote to trigger article 50 based on those aims would be pointless (and would probably weaken the negotiating position somewhat).
So, let's imagine that parliamentary approval of terms is what these Remainers want (rather than being given a say in when negotiations start). Knowing that MPs had that vote, why do you think the EU would ever give the UK favourable terms of exit? (considering that they do not want the UK to leave). In this case the EU would hold all the cards ("hooray" - Remoaners).
I agree with Matt's view and he is right to use the term filibustering because to obfuscate and delay the process of leaving the EU seems to be the intention here. If the outcome of the referendum is to be honoured, I cannot see how this ruling will not hinder the process. The ultimate outcome (Brexit-lite?) may well be celebrated by Remainers as it could be far removed from the situation Leavers thought they were voting for. Regardless, the (extra) uncertainty that this has caused will not help business or the financial markets, as we've seen today.
I'd like to add that as one who voted Remain, Matt, your position is (almost) uniquely honourable  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 04, 2016, 23:46:43 PM
Sounds like a federal European Superstate to me.
;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 04, 2016, 23:57:31 PM
Sounds like a federal European Superstate to me.


Yes that works too!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on November 05, 2016, 08:24:50 AM

Quite.  This legal decision has been brought about because a clan of bitter, petty Remainers dredged up a law from antiquity and chanced their arm, apparently motivated by little else but spite.  Utterly pointless and actually does far more harm than good to the functioning of our democracy.





Judges independent of Parliament uphold British law, reasserting the supremacy of Parliament instead of allowing the PM to apply Royal prerogative like a medieval King, and you say democracy has been harmed? Are you Robert Mugabe in disguise?

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 05, 2016, 09:02:49 AM

Judges independent of Parliament uphold British law, reasserting the supremacy of Parliament instead of allowing the PM to apply Royal prerogative like a medieval King, and you say democracy has been harmed? Are you Robert Mugabe in disguise?
Can you explain the merit of this judgement, in practical terms?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on November 05, 2016, 09:36:41 AM
Can you explain the merit of this judgement, in practical terms?
Well, the merit is that Parliament is in charge, according to our law since the English Civil War ended.


Would you prefer a system of plebiscites where we do away with Parliament and the Queen writes the will of the people into law?  It is 5 November, after all  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on November 05, 2016, 10:30:30 AM

Judges independent of Parliament uphold British law, reasserting the supremacy of Parliament instead of allowing the PM to apply Royal prerogative like a medieval King, and you say democracy has been harmed? Are you Robert Mugabe in disguise?


No, I didn't say democracy (per se) has been harmed, if you read the very post you've quoted a bit more carefully. 


And I do hope the crass Mugabe comparison is facetious; I'll give the benefit of the doubt on that one.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 05, 2016, 10:58:09 AM
Well, the merit is that Parliament is in charge, according to our law since the English Civil War ended.

But Rob - Parliament does not normally approve everything that a government does. I found this interesting piece on the BBC's website:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4267761.stm

Note that the Royal Prerogative even covers the "making of treaties" in foreign affairs, and negotiating trade deals is surely a notch or two below that. No-one's rewriting the constitution here. This notion that Parliament has to approve all of the government's actions is a new invention on the part of the Remoaners and a set of High Court judges who are apparently sympathetic to them.

The (then) government didn't even have to ask Parliament before going to war in Iraq in 2003. It did in fact organise a debate and a vote in the Commons, but was never bound by it.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on November 05, 2016, 11:02:30 AM

No, I didn't say democracy (per se) has been harmed, if you read the very post you've quoted a bit more carefully. 


And I do hope the crass Mugabe comparison is facetious; I'll give the benefit of the doubt on that one.
Harming the functioning of democracy seems to me to be the same as harming democracy, in practical terms.


Ok, you are not actually Robert Mugabe in disguise. I'm sure that you don't engage in mass murder and torture.  The courts held Mugabe up as he moved Zimbabwe toward populist totalitarianism, so the analogy to a move away from Parliamentarism and the rule of law seems appropriate, if admittedly hyperbolic. Though have a look at the Express and Sun headlines of late. Quite frightening fascist propaganda.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on November 05, 2016, 12:46:06 PM
Though have a look at the Express and Sun headlines of late. Quite frightening fascist propaganda.

Yes a worrying slant to the nasty side of the right, very noticeable.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on November 05, 2016, 13:02:53 PM
I'm surprised that certain newspaper headlines re. the high court judges hasn't been condemned by a Govt minister tbh... presumably they agree with the incitement?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on November 05, 2016, 13:07:47 PM
May hasn't spoken out about the attacks on the judiciary. Just as she has never spoken out to condemn the post-referendum hate crimes, let alone the xenophobic language that has become so prevalent.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 05, 2016, 13:27:48 PM
May hasn't spoken out about the attacks on the judiciary. Just as she has never spoken out to condemn the post-referendum hate crimes, let alone the xenophobic language that has become so prevalent.


The Mail and Express are absolutely despicable.  All that is hateful about the UK in a nutshell.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on November 05, 2016, 13:58:52 PM
Harming the functioning of democracy seems to me to be the same as harming democracy, in practical terms.

Generally, I would agree; however, what appears to be happening in this specific, exceptional and somewhat paradoxical instance is a conflict of two democratic stances.  The motivations behind Gina Miller's intervention do not appear to be limited only to a technicality but ulterior motives which do not sit well with the prevailing instruction of the voting public to Leave.

Quote
Ok, you are not actually Robert Mugabe in disguise. I'm sure that you don't engage in mass murder and torture.  The courts held Mugabe up as he moved Zimbabwe toward populist totalitarianism, so the analogy to a move away from Parliamentarism and the rule of law seems appropriate, if admittedly hyperbolic.

Fair play - blame a pre-morning-coffee-posting if I came across as a bit jumpy.  :)

Quote
Though have a look at the Express and Sun headlines of late. Quite frightening fascist propaganda.

Indeed, the hysterical invective from the likes of these rags is disgraceful - no change there, of course.  The judges in making this objective, legally correct decision (subject to appeal) are absolutely beyond reproach - that must be made very clear.  My beef is with the thinking and motivations from an agenda-driven Remainer behind how the ruling would manifest itself, which don't appear to come from an entirely honest or honourable place, i.e. scupper Brexit by any means possible.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 05, 2016, 21:27:19 PM
My beef is with the thinking and motivations from an agenda-driven Remainer behind how the ruling would manifest itself, which don't appear to come from an entirely honest or honourable place, i.e. scupper Brexit by any means possible.
Which is a very good piece of beef. Are the legal challenges being done because people are concerned by the legal and constitutional issues over Brexit, or are they been driven by a bunch of sore losers.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 05, 2016, 21:32:39 PM

The Mail and Express are absolutely despicable.  All that is hateful about the UK in a nutshell.
I read the D**ly M**l, it really isn't that bad - apart from when it supported BLiar in the early days - you know exactly where it stands, so you can read between the lines of what it is saying and many of its journalists - especially in the sport pages - come out with views which are very much at odds with perceived M**l opinion.

Although I must say I find it hard to believe how the M**l has been so much on the side of Stephen Lawrence. I thought they didn't care for people of colour?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 05, 2016, 21:55:56 PM
Which is a very good piece of beef. Are the legal challenges being done because people are concerned by the legal and constitutional issues over Brexit, or are they been driven by a bunch of sore losers.


It was wrong for the government to railroad through their version of Brexit without parliament's approval.


Justice has been done and the motivations of those who brought the issue to the courts is immaterial.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on November 05, 2016, 21:57:43 PM
The Mail under Dacre has been criticised frequently for its racist attitude towards the stories it chooses to cover, ie rarely where black folk are the victims. I think they were going to be anti Stephen Lawrence originally until their journalist Hal Austin discovered that Neville Lawrence had worked as a plasterer on Dacre's house... the news desk instructed Austin to "Do something sympathetic" about the case.

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 05, 2016, 22:30:05 PM
Quite frightening fascist propaganda.

Neither fascist, nor propaganda. Speaking up for the people against the establishment which would deny them liberty.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 06, 2016, 01:29:19 AM
Neither fascist, nor propaganda. Speaking up for the people against the establishment which would deny them liberty.
Yes, I agree. To call those opinions fascist is hysterical nonsense.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on November 06, 2016, 09:50:59 AM
Yes, I agree. To call those opinions fascist is hysterical nonsense.


Yes, "fascist" isn't appropriate, but much of the invective is plain ad hominen at best and hardly measured or rational.  That's the tabloids all over - more interested in sensationalist character assassination than engaging in a healthy discourse.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 06, 2016, 11:48:25 AM

Yes, "fascist" isn't appropriate, but much of the invective is plain ad hominen at best and hardly measured or rational.  That's the tabloids all over - more interested in sensationalist character assassination than engaging in a healthy discourse.
Of course, sensationalism is an accurate description of much tabloid journalism. In terms of the Express: for a paper that has campaigned for six years to give the electorate a say on EU membership, the headline is not irrational. These judges may have denied the expressed will of the majority. I also believe that healthy discourse is to be found within these papers but headlines are usually, inevitably, sensational.
Hitler and Mussolini were fascists, as you concede, Express headline writers are probably not.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on November 06, 2016, 12:39:35 PM
The Lord Chief Justice Lord Thomas put it in this way: "The sole question in this case is whether, as a matter of the constitutional law of the United Kingdom, the Crown - acting through the executive government of the day - is entitled to use its prerogative powers to give notice under Article 50 for the United Kingdom to cease to be a member of the European Union."
He stressed that it was a "pure question of law" with "no bearing" on the merits of the UK withdrawing from the EU.
Lord Thomas says: "An important aspect of the fundamental principle of Parliamentary sovereignty is that primary legislation is not subject to displacement by the Crown through the exercise of its prerogative powers."
So, prerogative powers are strictly limited and in the relationship between them and Parliament it is Parliament that very firmly has the upper hand, because, "This subordination of the Crown [ie the executive government] to law is the foundation of the rule of law in the United Kingdom", he says.
In other words, Parliament is king - top dog of the constitution.
The government cannot use executive powers to override legislation. Only legislation can override legislation.

This view was expressed but ignored by the press months back when the case was first brought before the courts.
The appeal should be dropped and the Govt should get on with 'leaving' the EU
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 06, 2016, 13:16:11 PM
The Lord Chief Justice Lord Thomas put it in this way: "The sole question in this case is whether, as a matter of the constitutional law of the United Kingdom, the Crown - acting through the executive government of the day - is entitled to use its prerogative powers to give notice under Article 50 for the United Kingdom to cease to be a member of the European Union."
He stressed that it was a "pure question of law" with "no bearing" on the merits of the UK withdrawing from the EU.
Lord Thomas says: "An important aspect of the fundamental principle of Parliamentary sovereignty is that primary legislation is not subject to displacement by the Crown through the exercise of its prerogative powers."
So, prerogative powers are strictly limited and in the relationship between them and Parliament it is Parliament that very firmly has the upper hand, because, "This subordination of the Crown [ie the executive government] to law is the foundation of the rule of law in the United Kingdom", he says.
In other words, Parliament is king - top dog of the constitution.
The government cannot use executive powers to override legislation. Only legislation can override legislation.

This view was expressed but ignored by the press months back when the case was first brought before the courts.
The appeal should be dropped and the Govt should get on with 'leaving' the EU
That's fine but the conundrum remains - on what basis would most MPs vote to trigger article 50 other than their desire for the UK to remain in or leave the EU?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 06, 2016, 13:22:48 PM
I was interested to read that Theresa is "confident" of this odious ruling being overturned, I hope that's justified.

Meanwhile a fascinating development in the Labour Party this morning - despicably, Corbyn has given an interview to the Mirror in which he describes a number of "red lines" which he will insist on, or block Article 50. One of these is access to the single market. Yet this morning Tom Watson, interviewed on 5 Live, asserted quite unambiguously and rather more honourably that even if Labour didn't get its own way, it would not block Article 50. He claimed that he hadn't read his leader's interview.

If it comes down to it, I think Watson's stance carries more weight and support among Labour MPs than Corbyn's.

Meanwhile Owen Smith is still hoping for a second referendum. He made the claim that the Leave voters had been lied to, and literally in the same breath insisted that we must remain in the single marked. Contemptible hypocrisy, but comical at the same time.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 06, 2016, 13:24:49 PM
Oh yes, Smith was also asked if he'd be prepared to take his case to the country in a General Election. I'm paraphrasing, but his reply was more or less "no, because we're 15 points behind in the polls and we'd get hammered".
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on November 06, 2016, 13:45:27 PM
Yes, I agree. To call those opinions fascist is hysterical nonsense.
You don't think that calling judges 'enemies of the people' for upholding the law regarding Parliamentary democracy is a fascist thing to do?  We have had an MP gunned down in the street. Maybe a judge is next. When populists blow the dog whistle, disturbed and angry people will turn into dogs and bite. Fascism is on the march across Europe and the USA, and the Mail just encouraged the fascists.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 06, 2016, 14:47:43 PM
That's fine but the conundrum remains - on what basis would most MPs vote to trigger article 50 other than their desire for the UK to remain in or leave the EU?
Anyone?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 06, 2016, 14:53:12 PM

If it comes down to it, I think Watson's stance carries more weight and support among Labour MPs than Corbyn's.

No change there, then  :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 06, 2016, 16:22:16 PM
Anyone?


Perhaps the instigators of the referendum should have thought about that before hand. How the process would work from beginning to end. How to avoid this mess.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 06, 2016, 16:33:22 PM

Perhaps the instigators of the referendum should have thought about that before hand. How the process would work from beginning to end. How to avoid this mess.
But this particular mess would not exist if the referendum result was accepted by all.
(No one has an answer to my question it seems)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 06, 2016, 16:43:22 PM
You don't think that calling judges 'enemies of the people' for upholding the law regarding Parliamentary democracy is a fascist thing to do?

That's right, I don't. It has exactly nothing to do with Fascism (unless you see the judges in that light, but I think that would be a little strong).
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Chris Quartly on November 06, 2016, 16:56:15 PM
But this particular mess would not exist if the referendum result was accepted by all.
(No one has an answer to my question it seems)


It isn't a question about how it is accepted, it's a question of what is law, it isn't something you can pick and choose.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on November 06, 2016, 16:57:02 PM
Here's an (un)subltle story from the daily mail, terrible story of 3 people being killed by a Polish lorry driver on a mobile. Why the need to point out the driver was Polish, would they say it was due to a Northern Irish or Scottish driver in the headline?

Can't you feel the lurch to the far right?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 06, 2016, 16:59:02 PM

Perhaps the instigators of the referendum should have thought about that before hand. How the process would work from beginning to end. How to avoid this mess.
Don't you think the architects of the EU should have given that a little more thought when they devised article 50? No surprise that the process of one state leaving the bloc is as ill-thought out as many other aspects.
"Leave, you say. Leave? How very dare you!"
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 06, 2016, 17:04:49 PM

It isn't a question about how it is accepted, it's a question of what is law, it isn't something you can pick and choose.
If the ruling was necessary, can you answer my previous question?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 06, 2016, 17:09:46 PM
Here's an (un)subltle story from the daily mail, terrible story of 3 people being killed by a Polish lorry driver on a mobile. Why the need to point out the driver was Polish, would they say it was due to a Northern Irish or Scottish driver in the headline?

Can't you feel the lurch to the far right?
::)
The BBC, The Mirror and the Independent all thought it relevant to report that he was Polish.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on November 06, 2016, 17:25:23 PM
Reported he was Polish in the text but not a screaming headline. From his name you could have a good guess at his nationality, the crime was using a mobile while driving, not being Polish.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 06, 2016, 18:21:11 PM
Don't you think the architects of the EU should have given that a little more thought when they devised article 50? No surprise that the process of one state leaving the bloc is as ill-thought out as many other aspects.
"Leave, you say. Leave? How very dare you!"


Very good. I know some in the UK like to blame the EU for everything that goes wrong but to blame it for the UK'S own constitutional mess takes some doing!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 06, 2016, 18:56:43 PM
That's fine but the conundrum remains - on what basis would most MPs vote to trigger article 50 other than their desire for the UK to remain in or leave the EU?
?
Surely some of you who thought this judgement necessary or desirable could answer this for me?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 06, 2016, 20:18:01 PM
Reported he was Polish in the text but not a screaming headline. From his name you could have a good guess at his nationality, the crime was using a mobile while driving, not being Polish.
It was all because British lorry drivers have to sign up to a code of conduct to say they won't use a mobile whilst driving. Something which doesn't apply to foreign drivers, well, foreign drivers driving for foreign haulage companies at any rate.

If you read the M**l you'd know it has the highest respect for the Polish people - so long as they flew in fighter squadrons in WWII. Old Poles Good, New Poles bad...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Chris Quartly on November 06, 2016, 22:17:35 PM
If the ruling was necessary, can you answer my previous question?


It seems as if it is necessary, as a matter of process. It really seems irrelevant.


Presumably the MPs are voting in accordance with their constituents (who voted them in, and could vote them out), I don't see the problem. It seems a pointless question, there is a process, and people have to accept that, just like people are saying they have to accept the referendum, all part of the process, you don't get to cherry pick when things suit you or not (seems a common occurrence from both sides of the argument).
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 06, 2016, 23:17:39 PM
Here's an (un)subltle story from the daily mail, terrible story of 3 people being killed by a Polish lorry driver on a mobile. Why the need to point out the driver was Polish, would they say it was due to a Northern Irish or Scottish driver in the headline?

Can't you feel the lurch to the far right?

If there is a lurch to the far right, it is being driven by the sort of resentment and disaffection which is caused, not alleviated, by people feeling that we don't have control of our own borders - and the spectacle of the political classes trying to frustrate the result of the referendum can only exacerbate it.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 06, 2016, 23:29:28 PM

It seems as if it is necessary, as a matter of process. It really seems irrelevant.


Presumably the MPs are voting in accordance with their constituents (who voted them in, and could vote them out), I don't see the problem. It seems a pointless question, there is a process, and people have to accept that, just like people are saying they have to accept the referendum, all part of the process, you don't get to cherry pick when things suit you or not (seems a common occurrence from both sides of the argument).
It's obvious that you don't know how the judgement will be implemented in practical terms then. It's not a pointless question, just a pointless judgement.
Ken Clarke (bless him) has said he will not vote for article 50 to be triggered as he disagrees with it, regardless of how his constituents voted. Many other dishonourable members will probably do the same. So what the MP's vote becomes, is a second referendum on EU membership that disregards the outcome of the first (and the will of the people), demanded by those that cannot accept the result. How very .......EU.
A cabal of shysters such as Clegg and Miliband would do anything to overturn the result (or stitch up the majority by ensuring we remain in the single market, and all it entails) and this is part of that . Had the law not been tested by such people, the PM would have triggered article 50 and got on with negotiations. Serves no useful purpose but to attempt to subvert the will of the majority.


Perhaps someone else can provide more clarity on why this judgement was necessary in order to implement the electorate's wish to leave the EU?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 07, 2016, 00:20:47 AM
Seems like Tom Watson has put Corbyn in a headlock and made him promise to not block the triggering of article 50. Some patience these Labour supporters need at the moment.
 Shame really. With 'blocking Article 50' as Labour policy, a snap election would surely see a huge loss of seats in parliament as furious Brexiteers replace their MPs with those from UKIP.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on November 07, 2016, 10:34:03 AM
that would probably lead to a hung parliament with UKIP's tail wagging the dog
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on November 07, 2016, 10:39:41 AM
That's fine but the conundrum remains - on what basis would most MPs vote to trigger article 50 other than their desire for the UK to remain in or leave the EU?


I assume they'd vote to trigger it once they knew what our negotiating stance was and what we were looking for from the new arrangement, seems sensible?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 07, 2016, 11:06:01 AM

I assume they'd vote to trigger it once they knew what our negotiating stance was and what we were looking for from the new arrangement, seems sensible?
But it would be pointless because what we're looking for and what we are likely to get may be very different. And what if they disagreed with that stance?
An unecessary distraction designed to frustrate, delay and water-down the terms of departure. If it looks like a duck.......
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 07, 2016, 11:52:17 AM
Could you make it up?


India wants freer access for its people in return for a better trade deal.


I think they're messing with May's head!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 07, 2016, 13:40:29 PM
Could you make it up?


India wants freer access for its people in return for a better trade deal.


I think they're messing with May's head!
She definitely needs to give access to a couple of Indian waiters - to replace those taken the other week, by immigration, from David Cameron's favourite Witney restaurant  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on November 07, 2016, 14:41:12 PM
Somehow I think every trade deal will have this component. It's going to take years to sort
 them out.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 07, 2016, 14:48:25 PM
She definitely needs to give access to a couple of Indian waiters - to replace those taken the other week, by immigration, from David Cameron's favourite Witney restaurant  ;D


 ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 07, 2016, 14:53:08 PM
Somehow I think every trade deal will have this component. It's going to take years to sort
 them out.

It's deliciously ironic isn't it (as was David's story about his wife's birthday and the restaurant being closed due to an illegal immigration raid) .  To get the kind of trade deals that were promised in post-brexit land the UK will have to agree to the free movement of people on a Worldwide scale!


I suppose not being in the Single market will mean that at least those pesky Europeans won't be able to get in willy-nilly!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on November 08, 2016, 09:15:29 AM
Ah, so those red-white-and-blue British patriots who fought to “take back control” are now fighting in court to gag our sovereign British parliament. Gilbert and Sullivan – even Monty Python – couldn’t have made that up.
Prof Richard Dawkins, Oxford.
Letter to The Guardian
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on November 08, 2016, 09:28:39 AM
Maybe the establishment is a good thing, protecting us from the ignorant....


http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/28/its-time-for-the-elites-to-rise-up-against-ignorant-masses-trump-2016-brexit/
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 08, 2016, 10:39:34 AM
Ah, so those red-white-and-blue British patriots who fought to “take back control” are now fighting in court to gag our sovereign British parliament. Gilbert and Sullivan – even Monty Python – couldn’t have made that up.
Prof Richard Dawkins, Oxford.
Letter to The Guardian

We voted to take back control of our affairs from the EU, not from the British people.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 08, 2016, 10:42:58 AM
Maybe the establishment is a good thing, protecting us from the ignorant....


http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/28/its-time-for-the-elites-to-rise-up-against-ignorant-masses-trump-2016-brexit/ (http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/28/its-time-for-the-elites-to-rise-up-against-ignorant-masses-trump-2016-brexit/)
How we were ever given permission to breathe the same air as these beings of superior intelligence astounds me sometimes.
I prefer  - "the 'ignorant' being protected, from themselves, ...by the arrogant"
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on November 08, 2016, 13:43:33 PM
So it looks like long term we are going to be £25 billion a year worse off (due to Brexit) as tax revenue will fall, which can only mean less for NHS, services etc etc.

I would have thought government and Sovereignty would stop us from hurting ourselves in the national interest, afterall if your child was holding a lit firework im sure you would intervene as a parent.

http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/chancellor-faces-25bn-hole-in-public-finances-post-brexit/a966591
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 08, 2016, 13:46:18 PM
So it looks like long term we are going to be £25 billion a year worse off (due to Brexit) as tax revenue will fall, which can only mean less for NHS, services etc etc.

I would have thought government and Sovereignty would stop us from hurting ourselves in the national interest, afterall if your child was holding a lit firework im sure you would intervene as a parent.

http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/chancellor-faces-25bn-hole-in-public-finances-post-brexit/a966591 (http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/chancellor-faces-25bn-hole-in-public-finances-post-brexit/a966591)


That's only scaremongering - you wouldn't see stuff like that in the Mail!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 08, 2016, 14:36:02 PM
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 08, 2016, 14:50:36 PM
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.


Claptrap and hyperbole. Since when has the UK been under the yoke of the EU ?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 08, 2016, 20:18:44 PM
So it looks like long term we are going to be £25 billion a year worse off (due to Brexit) as tax revenue will fall, which can only mean less for NHS, services etc etc.

I would have thought government and Sovereignty would stop us from hurting ourselves in the national interest, afterall if your child was holding a lit firework im sure you would intervene as a parent.

http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/chancellor-faces-25bn-hole-in-public-finances-post-brexit/a966591
Pure speculation.
I've said it before, and no doubt I'll say it again: Economics is BUNK!

Whether you're a Brexiteer or a Bremoaner, your economic forecasts are not worth the paper they're written on. We live in a global economy, events that can derail economies - or indeed propel them along at a fair old clip - could arise from anywhere.

Economics like wetting your finger and sticking it in the air to forecast the weather* :)

* As used by Paul Hudson on the BBS's Look North
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 08, 2016, 21:01:05 PM

That's only scaremongering - you wouldn't see stuff like that in the Mail!
Page 18 I think you'll find :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on November 08, 2016, 21:20:10 PM
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.




his beer aint bad too
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 08, 2016, 23:23:43 PM



his beer aint bad too
"The whole country's completely paralyzed!"

Better quote/ Better beer  :) ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 09, 2016, 00:34:25 AM

Claptrap and hyperbole. Since when has the UK been under the yoke of the EU ?

Lick those hands, Dom. Suck the fingers if it makes you feel better, but make sure you stay on your knees.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 09, 2016, 09:50:27 AM
Lick those hands, Dom. Suck the fingers if it makes you feel better, but make sure you stay on your knees.


Funny man!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 09, 2016, 12:53:03 PM
I apologise, Dom. That sort of rhetoric is no substitute for an argument, I must admit.

Here's what I was getting at, hopefully expressed in a more considered tone. £25 billion is as nothing next to the principle that our country should only be governed by its own citizens, in its own interest. Good people have fought and died for that.

And it's by no means certain that we'll be worse off in the longer term, anyway.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 09, 2016, 13:22:04 PM
I apologise, Dom. That sort of rhetoric is no substitute for an argument, I must admit.

Here's what I was getting at, hopefully expressed in a more considered tone. £25 billion is as nothing next to the principle that our country should only be governed by its own citizens, in its own interest. Good people have fought and died for that.

And it's by no means certain that we'll be worse off in the longer term, anyway.


That's fair enough my claptrap and hyperbole comment was ott as well and probably wound you up a bit - I do understand where you're coming from I just don't share that viewpoint.  Is it really that important ?  At the end of the day what difference will this minor shift in sovereignty make? I get the point about a country governing in its own interest but any country trying to flourish in this ever increasingly interdependent World always has to consider those around it when making decisions.  As a member of the EU those decisions were a little more formalised, that's all. To the average person in the street, I really don't think Brexit will make any material difference to their lives.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 09, 2016, 17:39:25 PM
To the average person in the street, I really don't think Brexit will make any material difference to their lives.
??
Jeez! Have we been wasting our time here or what?  ??? ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 09, 2016, 19:20:55 PM
??
Jeez! Have we been wasting our time here or what?  ??? ;)


So it will enable some to be able to puff their chests out a little bit further. I hope it's worth it!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 10, 2016, 14:40:22 PM

So it will enable some to be able to puff their chests out a little bit further. I hope it's worth it!

It will (for example) allow us to reduce immigration from Eastern Europe dramatically, reducing strain on public services and safeguarding jobs for British workers. It will allow us to overturn laws that aren't useful or wanted. And we won't be forking out cash to prop up other countries' economies.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 10, 2016, 15:18:01 PM
??
Jeez! Have we been wasting our time here or what?  ??? ;)
I mean debating so fiercely the subject on this forum
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 10, 2016, 15:20:21 PM
It will (for example) allow us to reduce immigration from Eastern Europe dramatically, reducing strain on public services and safeguarding jobs for British workers. It will allow us to overturn laws that aren't useful or wanted. And we won't be forking out cash to prop up other countries' economies.
Succinct and accurate
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 10, 2016, 23:35:21 PM
It will (for example) allow us to reduce immigration from Eastern Europe dramatically, reducing strain on public services and safeguarding jobs for British workers


Harming British industry in the process and forcing prices up for the British consumer presumably
.
Quote
It will allow us to overturn laws that aren't useful or wanted.
Sounds good in principal but I'd be interested to see how this will actually provide any benefit to the country as a whole.


Quote
And we won't be forking out cash to prop up other countries' economies.[\quote]

Sure about that? I'mean sure that will continue in one form or another
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 11, 2016, 00:08:31 AM

Harming British industry in the process and forcing prices up for the British consumer presumably
British industry needs to be weaned of its addiction to cheap labour from some of the poorest countries in the EU. The consumer needs to be weaned off unrealistically cheap prices. This will probably reduce profits and cause price rises but the correction is necessary, if for no better reason than to prevent young skilled Eastern Europeans removing those skills from their own countries.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 11, 2016, 07:27:20 AM
British industry needs to be weaned of its addiction to cheap labour from some of the poorest countries in the EU. The consumer needs to be weaned off unrealistically cheap prices. This will probably reduce profits and cause price rises but the correction is necessary, if for no better reason than to prevent young skilled Eastern Europeans removing those skills from their own countries.


I find it very interesting that those whose lean to the right politically extol the virtues of the free market and insist that government interference is a serious impediment to the workings of the market.
Until it comes to immigration. Then Government interventions are to be welcomed to curb the instincts of market economics.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 11, 2016, 08:46:42 AM

I find it very interesting that those whose lean to the right politically extol the virtues of the free market and insist that government interference is a serious impediment to the workings of the market.
Until it comes to immigration. Then Government interventions are to be welcomed to curb the instincts of market economics.
The free market in labour does not work when there are such large disparities between economies and living standards. Right, Left, Centre, that's just a fact.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 11, 2016, 09:03:57 AM
I find it very interesting that those whose lean to the right politically extol the virtues of the free market and insist that government interference is a serious impediment to the workings of the market.
Until it comes to immigration. Then Government interventions are to be welcomed to curb the instincts of market economics.

But Dom, these issues are complicated and nuanced, not painted in simple black and white. We don't actually live in a free market, laissez faire economy. We pay taxes.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 11, 2016, 09:08:58 AM
The free market in labour does not work when there are such large disparities between economies and living standards. Right, Left, Centre, that's just a fact.

Yes, it might be a different matter if there were a level, global playing field. But for example the minimum wage in this country is an artificial construct that has nothing to do with a free market in jobs or anything else. It's dramatically higher than the wage for many jobs in other countries where wages are governed more legitimately by market conditions.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 11, 2016, 09:51:17 AM
The free market in labour does not work when there are such large disparities between economies and living standards. Right, Left, Centre, that's just a fact.


But it is working in the single market - when migrants come to areas where wages are higher and opportunities greater, then it's working.   That is the invisible hand in effect.   
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 11, 2016, 09:57:23 AM
But Dom, these issues are complicated and nuanced, not painted in simple black and white. We don't actually live in a free market, laissez faire economy. We pay taxes.


I always thought the stated aim of on the right was to reduce the impact of Government in all areas; less taxes, less red tape and interference.  To reduce the impact of Government as much as possible.


If the EU's stated aim of tax harmonisation ever reached fruition, would you have been more open to free movement of labour in that circumstance ?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 11, 2016, 10:57:38 AM

But it is working in the single market - when migrants come to areas where wages are higher and opportunities greater, then it's working.   That is the invisible hand in effect.
And what happens in those countries where wages are lower and opportunities less?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 11, 2016, 11:46:29 AM
And what happens in those countries where wages are lower and opportunities less?


migration - as happens all the time.  From the country to the city for example with the industrial revolution.


You would imagine that as improvements occur in those countries and wages rise due to the lower supply of labour there would be a degree of balancing. This is already happening in Poland. And its not as if the whole of Eastern Europe has been emptied. 
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on November 11, 2016, 18:43:56 PM
Pre Brexit the UK was doing well economically and if i recall at 95% employment (which technically is 100% as 5% of the population are unemployable for one reason or another). So once the Brexshiteers have repatriated all the "immigrants" who is going to replace the reliable and hard working Poles/Lithuanians/Euros ? Perhaps now the benefit cap has been reduced by £6000 some new workers may become available, but "reliable and hard working"?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 12, 2016, 00:03:17 AM
Pre Brexit the UK was doing well economically and if i recall at 95% employment (which technically is 100% as 5% of the population are unemployable for one reason or another). So once the Brexshiteers have repatriated all the "immigrants" who is going to replace the reliable and hard working Poles/Lithuanians/Euros ? Perhaps now the benefit cap has been reduced by £6000 some new workers may become available, but "reliable and hard working"?
Probably nowhere near as motivated as a Polish worker who could be earning up to four times the wage earned in Poland, even on the UK minimum wage. Taking into account the difference in cost of living between the two countries, even the minimum wage is twice as much as average earnings in Poland. They don't need any other reason to be reliable and work hard.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 12, 2016, 10:49:32 AM
Pre Brexit the UK was doing well economically and if i recall at 95% employment (which technically is 100% as 5% of the population are unemployable for one reason or another). So once the Brexshiteers have repatriated all the "immigrants" who is going to replace the reliable and hard working Poles/Lithuanians/Euros ? Perhaps now the benefit cap has been reduced by £6000 some new workers may become available, but "reliable and hard working"?

Well, the point of being able to control immigration is not to prevent it completely. You do make an excellent point about what the welfare state and world-owes-me-a-living culture has done to this country, though. I well remember that documentary a few years ago where they found jobs for people on Job Seeker's Allowance. As I recall half of them simply didn't turn up for work after the first day and most of those who did just couldn't be arsed to work anyway.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 15, 2016, 13:29:51 PM
John McDonnell:
 
"Labour accepts the referendum result as the voice of the majority and we must embrace the enormous opportunities to reshape our country that Brexit has opened for us".  :o

"This means we must not try to re-fight the referendum or push for a second vote and if article 50 needs to be triggered in parliament Labour will not seek to block or delay it".  :o

"It is time we all were more positive about Brexit"  :o
 
"Labour wants to see an ambitious Brexit Britain"  :o

What a first class numpty. So the court case was a complete waste of time. Those judges could have stayed on the golf course.
 
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on November 15, 2016, 13:33:39 PM
No plan and 30000 more civil servants required. What a farce.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 15, 2016, 13:42:20 PM
No plan and 30000 more civil servants required. What a farce.
Reports say it's from a consulting firm in a 'pitch' for work from the government.
If there is no plan, it's due to the delusional arrogance of the government, prior to the referendum, who were overwhelmingly, Remainiacs.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on November 15, 2016, 19:00:02 PM
Still waiting on a bit of good news due to Brexit. Really it's astonishing that after all the leavers "getting our country back" that no actual benefits can be shown.

The Pm's trip to India to drum up trade seems to have ended with her returning with her tail between her legs, Farage has upstaged her in the USA, the automotive industry has been promised some form of backhander .... it's all one way traffic.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 15, 2016, 19:32:02 PM
Still waiting on a bit of good news due to Brexit. Really it's astonishing that after all the leavers "getting our country back" that no actual benefits can be shown.

"Astonishing" - really? Considering the process of negotiating our departure has not yet started, I think it's premature to make such a statement. If you want Brexit to be a success, at least you have to be thankful that the 'immediate and profound' economic shock has not materialised. No immediate interest rate rise, no immediate house price crash, no immediate flight of capital, no immediate large scale job losses, no immediate fall in growth and no sign of an emergency budget. The fall in sterling could be seen as negative although it has certainly helped exports and promoted consumer spending (in the short term) - so not all bad.


Nice to see even that old trot, John McDonnell now concedes it could present opportunities. Let's all be positive and hope he's right.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: BasspedalMan on November 16, 2016, 13:43:56 PM
I think the fact that the media will report on a sneeze these days is clouding all of our views. In the old days news filtered down more slowly and people were under less scrutiny so had time to debate and discuss. 24/7 news has just meant that all our politicians are more concerned about how what they do LOOKS rather than what it actually DOES!

If we all just calmed down a bit and got on with our lives it will just be what it will be. The EU is corrupt to the core and it has its' favourites who get the most out of the pot and always have done! The Euro calamity is bankrupting the EU and we would likely get dragged into the bail outs. The writing is on the wall for the European Union in a political sense. I hope the values live on but the Commission is unaccountable and unaudited for god knows how many years. There are stupid, petty wastes such as the fortnightly schlep to Strasbourg and headline policies on Farming and Fishing that are IGNORED other EU members with zero penalty.

We just need to remain calm and confident and  ignore the body-language from elsewhere...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 16, 2016, 14:13:13 PM
I think the fact that the media will report on a sneeze these days is clouding all of our views. In the old days news filtered down more slowly and people were under less scrutiny so had time to debate and discuss. 24/7 news has just meant that all our politicians are more concerned about how what they do LOOKS rather than what it actually DOES!

If we all just calmed down a bit and got on with our lives it will just be what it will be. The EU is corrupt to the core and it has its' favourites who get the most out of the pot and always have done! The Euro calamity is bankrupting the EU and we would likely get dragged into the bail outs. The writing is on the wall for the European Union in a political sense. I hope the values live on but the Commission is unaccountable and unaudited for god knows how many years. There are stupid, petty wastes such as the fortnightly schlep to Strasbourg and headline policies on Farming and Fishing that are IGNORED other EU members with zero penalty.

We just need to remain calm and confident and  ignore the body-language from elsewhere...
Well said!  ;)
 
In the meantime, Google are investing up to £1bn on a new London HQ creating up to 3000 jobs. Japanese firm, Softbank announced it will base its £80bn tech fund in the UK. Inflation has slowed and  today it was announced that unemployment has fallen to an 11 year low. Also, average pay up by 2.4%.
 
Seems things are going in the right direction .........at the moment. As comrade McDonnell says "it's time we all were more positive about Brexit"
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 16, 2016, 20:17:48 PM
More nonsense to beat the EU with.


This unaudited thing really needs to die a death. Go and find out when the UK Government accounts were last audited. I've a fair idea its a lot longer than the EU.


Corrupt to the core? Where's the evidence for this? Why weren't all the pro-brexit groups shouting this from thevrooftops.


Now I agree that certain EU countries are more corrupt than others but this will be reduced by having to comply with EU regulations.


Favourites who get the most out of the pot. The structural fund invests in poorer regions throughout Europe. Some parts of the UK even will be crossing their fingers that such investment will be continued by the UK government post brexit.


Agree on the wastes but these are relatively low and show me the country that doesn't waste money.


Need some evidence on the rule flouting?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 16, 2016, 21:52:10 PM
Inflation has slowed and  today it was announced that unemployment has fallen to an 11 year low. Also, average pay up by 2.4%.
 
is this because of Brexit? Most probably not.
If things had moved the other way, would it have been the fault of Brexit? According to Project Fear MOST CERTAINLY!

Is the economy far too complicated for economists to model and predict? YES!

Is it better for the British people to get on with being British in Britain without having to pander to trying to keep the rest of Europe happy? Probably. At least it will be our own money being wasted at home, instead of being squandered on Spanish airports that are never used :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 16, 2016, 22:55:54 PM
Reports say it's from a consulting firm in a 'pitch' for work from the government.
Deloitte
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on November 16, 2016, 23:15:58 PM
Is it better for the British people to get on with being British in Britain...?


And what, pray tell, is that exactly?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 16, 2016, 23:20:21 PM
Put a bufoon in charge and what do you get?  Bufoonery!


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/16/european-ministers-boris-johnson-prosecco-claim-brexit
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 16, 2016, 23:21:43 PM

And what, pray tell, is that exactly?
Whatever you want it to be - as long as it's not foreign. Obvs.



Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 16, 2016, 23:33:33 PM

This unaudited thing really needs to die a death.
Yes. the EU accounts are audited every year. They never used to be signed off as being accurate in line with whatever GAAP they are audited against.
However, whilst the auditors now approve them as being a true and fair account of EU expenditure, they still contain material amounts of expenditure - more than 2% of the total - which was spent in error.


https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-budget/


Quote
Go and find out when the UK Government accounts were last audited. I've a fair idea its a lot longer than the EU.
The NAO seem to think they're doing a pretty good job.


Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 17, 2016, 09:28:03 AM
http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-blamed-for-uks-163100bn-budget-black-hole-10660077


Chancellor reaffirms the prediction made by the CBI prior to the referendum


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/21/brexit-could-cost-100bn-and-nearly-1m-jobs-cbi-warns





Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on November 20, 2016, 14:42:28 PM
Still waiting on a bit of good news due to Brexit. Really it's astonishing that after all the leavers "getting our country back" that no actual benefits can be shown.

Nick, I'll let you know when we've actually left the EU. In the meantime positive potential benefits have already been articulated in this thread and others, many times.

In other, related news: pitiful Remoaner desperation brutally slapped down - on the BBC, of all places.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sT8fkefynzM
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on November 21, 2016, 20:56:56 PM
While we wait to leave the EU I saw a paragraph that summed the future up quite well.

The UK could and should be a leading member of one of the three great blocs in the world, wielding influence and setting an example with its EU partners on co-operation, progress, and civilised values. If it leaves the EU it will be an increasingly diminished and marginal offshore island, sucking its thumb while the great blocs make decisions in which it takes no part but by which it is helplessly affected.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 21, 2016, 21:50:40 PM
And what if the other two "great" blocs gang up on the EU?
If Ifs and Ands were Pots and Pans and all that.

We can still cooperate with people. You only have to look at things like CERN, their major bit of kit isn't in the EU.
Is the way the Germans have imposed shackles on the Greek economy co-operation?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on November 21, 2016, 22:06:51 PM
this scenario seems somewhat bleak...quite worried tbh

https://inews.co.uk/explainers/iq/hard-brexit-cliff-edge-vision-leaving-eu-without-deal-imagined/
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 21, 2016, 22:14:57 PM
While we wait to leave the EU I saw a paragraph that summed the future up quite well.

The UK could and should be a leading member of one of the three great blocs in the world, wielding influence and setting an example with its EU partners on co-operation, progress, and civilised values. If it leaves the EU it will be an increasingly diminished and marginal offshore island, sucking its thumb while the great blocs make decisions in which it takes no part but by which it is helplessly affected.
It's quite probable that one of those three 'great' blocs will no longer exist in a decade. More likely, two 'great' blocs, along with one 'great' nation  :P   ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 21, 2016, 22:20:25 PM
this scenario seems somewhat bleak...quite worried tbh

https://inews.co.uk/explainers/iq/hard-brexit-cliff-edge-vision-leaving-eu-without-deal-imagined/ (https://inews.co.uk/explainers/iq/hard-brexit-cliff-edge-vision-leaving-eu-without-deal-imagined/)
Ah, I see he has a book to sell. File next to biographies of Mystic Meg and David Icke
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on November 21, 2016, 23:04:40 PM
I wouldn't dismiss it so easily, there have been plenty of  bleak predictions if we do the cliff dive from the EU... not involving book sales.  You should have a word with Theresa and put the nation's fears at rest. ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 22, 2016, 10:36:34 AM
Facebook to open new offices in London employing 500 extra staff
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 22, 2016, 10:56:32 AM
Facebook to open new offices in London employing 500 extra staff


wonder if they were humming along to Hotel California as they were signing that off?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on November 24, 2016, 18:39:33 PM
Not good news on the future for the UK economy after the Autumn statement, Peston sums it up quite well below.

"According to the cursed experts at the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government's debt is set to rise from 84% of GDP or national income last year to over 90% at the end of March 2018.

Now you don't have to be a fiscal-rectitude fetishist to feel a bit anxious about this.

After all, the government's debt was 40% of GDP before the 2008 financial crisis. So the consistent deterioration since then is stark and of concern.

Also 90% is conventionally seen as an inflexion point - to use the ghastly cliche - at which economic performance starts to be damaged.

The slippery slope to Italian, Japanese or Greek economic under-performance is - at that level - no longer just the stuff of conservative economists' fairy tales.

Now at least part of this deterioration is due to the short-to-medium term negative impact of Brexit on already weak UK productivity, growth and tax revenues.

So here's what those ideological despisers of experts - the Goves, Johnsons and Rees-Moggs - had better be correct about: that Brexit will liberate the animal spirits of British businesses and ultimately lead to an acceleration of growth.

Because if their thinking is wishful, and the reality turns out to be that the increased friction and costs of trading with our biggest market has permanently damaged our productive potential, then all that valiant work since 1979 to turn the UK into an economy fit for wealth creators will have been for nought."
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 24, 2016, 20:16:04 PM
It's to be hoped that these cursed experts at the Office for Budget Responsibility have Crystal Balls. Then they won't be able to reproduce and all these people and there economic pronouncements will die out, then we can just get on with things.
Gideon was always reassessing forecasts from Budget to Budget. Nothing ever turns out over the course of even a year compared to what was forecast, so why bother making all these long range forecasts?

Many years ago I remember producing many a forecast proving to the auditors that the company I worked for was a going concern. It went belly up...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on November 25, 2016, 00:27:30 AM
OBR figures put the losses due to Brexit at a median figure of around £60bn over the next 5 years, which swallows most of the £11bn p/a we send to the EU. The upper figure, perhaps unlikely but who really knows, is around £200bn. UK will be paying EU contributions PLUS Brexit costs for at least the first 2 years. Hate to say it but the Osbourne guesstimate of £4,300 per household looks in the ballpark.

I wonder if sensible minds are beginning to realise that tanking the economy and making people poorer is not a good vote winner?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 25, 2016, 01:46:05 AM
OBR figures put the losses due to Brexit at a median figure of around £60bn over the next 5 years, which swallows most of the £11bn p/a we send to the EU. The upper figure, perhaps unlikely but who really knows, is around £200bn. UK will be paying EU contributions PLUS Brexit costs for at least the first 2 years. Hate to say it but the Osbourne guesstimate of £4,300 per household looks in the ballpark.

I wonder if sensible minds are beginning to realise that tanking the economy and making people poorer is not a good vote winner?
Crystal ball - gazing bell-ends
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on November 25, 2016, 08:09:31 AM
Well these IFS projections are based on a higher growth level than most think we'll achieve... I do wish some folk would wake up and smell the coffee

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38090977
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 25, 2016, 09:01:17 AM
Well these IFS projections are based on a higher growth level than most think we'll achieve... I do wish some folk would wake up and smell the coffee


We haven't even put the kettle on yet
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on November 25, 2016, 13:19:07 PM
I understand that forecasts are best guesses and all so far have been of the painful outcome, so where are the positive forecasts from the Brexiters? That worries me.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 25, 2016, 13:41:08 PM
Read the D**ly M**l and you'll find out :) ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on November 25, 2016, 13:43:43 PM
Q: Why does the EU exist?

A: The French are shit scared of being crushed under the heel of a Prussian Jackboot - again.

Now, answer me this: is that a solid basis for the EU project?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on November 25, 2016, 14:44:02 PM
I never make it past Kim Kardasians arse.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 25, 2016, 16:27:22 PM
Well done Boris!


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/25/boris-johnson-clown-eu-britain-foreign-secretary (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/25/boris-johnson-michael-gove-eu-liars)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on November 25, 2016, 17:47:08 PM
Well done Boris!


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/25/boris-johnson-clown-eu-britain-foreign-secretary (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/25/boris-johnson-michael-gove-eu-liars)
It's got those two words in it again  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on November 25, 2016, 20:05:09 PM
It's got those two words in it again  ;)


Sorry that was the wrong article


https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/25/boris-johnson-clown-eu-britain-foreign-secretary?client=ms-android-samsung
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 02, 2016, 05:58:20 AM
Sarah Olney has overturned Zac Goldsmith's huge majority in the Richmond Park by-election.  So pleased that the Lib Dems are back on the march.


Wondering what this means for the type of Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 02, 2016, 07:03:47 AM
Sarah Olney has overturned Zac Goldsmith's huge majority in the Richmond Park by-election.  So pleased that the Lib Dems are back on the march.

Ironic that you should use a military term to describe a group of such soft-spined individuals :)   ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Thailand Express on December 02, 2016, 09:19:05 AM
Sarah Olney has overturned Zac Goldsmith's huge majority in the Richmond Park by-election.  So pleased that the Lib Dems are back on the march.

Wondering what this means for the type of Brexit.


We'll probably need to wait til there's a bi-election in a constituency that voted Leave.  If anyone's going to benefit from constituency elections being framed around Brexit it'll be UKIP...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on December 02, 2016, 09:53:37 AM
Ironic that you should use a military term to describe a group of such soft-spined individuals :)   ;)


Now, now...don't criticize their backs, THEY'RE BACK!!!!  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 02, 2016, 10:40:01 AM

Now, now...don't criticize their backs, THEY'RE BACK!!!!  ;)
;D
If they carry on in the manner of Susan Kramer on This Week, last night, they won't be back for long - embarrassing
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 02, 2016, 10:57:53 AM
Ironic that you should use a military term to describe a group of such soft-spined individuals :)   ;)

A swarm of Humbolt Squid can eat you alive.  And Mr Goldsmith used the military metaphor before me - he said he was subjected to "an unprecedented Lib Dem heavy bombardment". 

The LDs were burned down to the grassroots last year but are re-emerging, winning 75 council seats including since the last main round, often with with 20% swings, doubling their membership since the Referendum.  With Labour lurching left and locked in internecene cold war, and the Tories taking on the populist mantle, there is fertile ground in the centre.  Their problem is a lack of funds - they lack the big biz support of the Tories and the union support of Labour.  Also, Tim Farron does not inspire much, his fiery performance on BBCQT notwithstanding.  I think he is an interim leader for them.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 02, 2016, 13:42:51 PM
  Also, Tim Farron does not inspire much, his fiery performance on BBCQT notwithstanding.  I think he is an interim leader for them.
Bring back 'titfer-munching' Pantsdown!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on December 02, 2016, 13:48:34 PM
A swarm of Humbolt Squid can eat you alive.  And Mr Goldsmith used the military metaphor before me - he said he was subjected to "an unprecedented Lib Dem heavy bombardment". 

The LDs were burned down to the grassroots last year but are re-emerging, winning 75 council seats including since the last main round, often with with 20% swings, doubling their membership since the Referendum.  With Labour lurching left and locked in internecene cold war, and the Tories taking on the populist mantle, there is fertile ground in the centre.  Their problem is a lack of funds - they lack the big biz support of the Tories and the union support of Labour.  Also, Tim Farron does not inspire much, his fiery performance on BBCQT notwithstanding.  I think he is an interim leader for them.


Fine post, especially re Farron.  Who to replace him, though?  There seems a dearth of leader-calibre personnel at the moment.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 02, 2016, 14:24:56 PM

Fine post, especially re Farron.  Who to replace him, though?  There seems a dearth of leader-calibre personnel at the moment.


The country really needs them to have a strong leader. with Labour becoming more irrelevant by the day, with the Tories main concern being to capture the UKIP vote and with UKIP being UKIP,  the political landscape has never looked so depressing.


Can the Lib Dems save us?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 02, 2016, 17:10:43 PM

The country really needs them to have a strong leader. with Labour becoming more irrelevant by the day, with the Tories main concern being to capture the UKIP vote and with UKIP being UKIP,  the political landscape has never looked so depressing.


Can the Lib Dems save us?
(( ;D ;D ;D ;D ))


 ;)


Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 02, 2016, 18:58:23 PM
(( ;D ;D ;D ;D ))


 ;)


I know its a preposterous thought. Sad that it come to that
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 03, 2016, 08:38:13 AM
Sarah Olney MP got immediately skewered by Julia Hartley-Brewer on Talk Radio.  It's on YouTube is you want a listen.  Welcome to the big leagues, Sarah...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on December 03, 2016, 13:37:30 PM
Sarah Olney MP got immediately skewered by Julia Hartley-Brewer on Talk Radio.  It's on YouTube is you want a listen.  Welcome to the big leagues, Sarah...


Well, Sarah Olney was pitiful in that interview and that was far, far too easy for Hartley-Brewer who did a professional job.  It wasn't like those questions were especially unanswerable, Olney was clearly unprepared and simply inept.  Bailing out was the ultimate embarrassment and she shamed herself, her party and her voters - must brush up on that media training and show some nads post-haste.


Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 03, 2016, 18:52:49 PM

Well, Sarah Olney was pitiful in that interview and that was far, far too easy for Hartley-Brewer who did a professional job.  It wasn't like those questions were especially unanswerable, Olney was clearly unprepared and simply inept.  Bailing out was the ultimate embarrassment and she shamed herself, her party and her voters - must brush up on that media training and show some nads post-haste.
Brilliant!
 'Air pollution promoting' Lib 'Dem' exposed as just another pious, contemptuous liberal air-head. That would've wiped the smile of that little weasel Farron's face, for sure. After his ridiculous grandstanding about the by-election result (and what it stood for) he deserves nothing less. Bit soon to crow about a march back to political relevance, I feel - even with one extra, there's still a few spare seats on the minibus for the Lib'Dem' MP's Xmas outing.  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on December 04, 2016, 01:22:32 AM
:)

Yes, Farron couldn't contain himself the morning after; so much so he took his eye off the ball and forgot to ensure his platoon's new recruit had been properly briefed and prepped for the media circuit.  Did they really expect not to be grilled and scrutinized in their heady moment of glory?

They really need the sort of political nous good old Charlie boy had.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 05, 2016, 10:57:56 AM

Well, Sarah Olney was pitiful in that interview and that was far, far too easy for Hartley-Brewer who did a professional job.  It wasn't like those questions were especially unanswerable, Olney was clearly unprepared and simply inept.  Bailing out was the ultimate embarrassment and she shamed herself, her party and her voters - must brush up on that media training and show some nads post-haste.

I don't think she expected to win.  She's only been political for eighteen months.  Would have done better to flatten the learning curve by serving as a councillor first.

Liberal values are quite hard to communicate because they lack the simple tropes of the Tories - 'we are the party of economic competence' - and Labour - 'we are the party of the workers'.  What does Open, Tolerant, United (http://www.libdems.org.uk/about_our_party) mean, specifically?  Though Clegg did a redoubtable job yesterday, standing up to Andrew Neil on BBC Sunday Politics.  He's their only heavyweight left. 

I think a lot of London Labour MPs are bricking it, though, after their supporters voted Lib Dem in the thousands and their man lost his deposit.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 05, 2016, 11:00:51 AM
Meanwhile, the Italians say NO - meaning further instability in the Eurozone and a possible incursion by their own alt-right populists.  Another iceberg about to fall off the EU glacier?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on December 05, 2016, 14:43:45 PM

The LDs were burned down to the grassroots last year but are re-emerging, winning 75 council seats including since the last main round, often with with 20% swings, doubling their membership since the Referendum.  With Labour lurching left and locked in internecene cold war, and the Tories taking on the populist mantle, there is fertile ground in the centre.  Their problem is a lack of funds - they lack the big biz support of the Tories and the union support of Labour.  Also, Tim Farron does not inspire much, his fiery performance on BBCQT notwithstanding.  I think he is an interim leader for them.

Sounds like some serious "straw-clutching" to me...

The Lib Debs shot themselves in the foot, the leg and the bollocks when they went into coalition with the Torys....it'll be a long time before they make a real recovery - if ever.

The recent victory was against a Tory standing as a independent with Brexit baggage and some moral high ground and no Tory or UKIP candidate. Anyone voting labour in the seat would be seen as a raving loony.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 05, 2016, 14:59:21 PM
Sounds like some serious "straw-clutching" to me...

The Lib Debs shot themselves in the foot, the leg and the bollocks when they went into coalition with the Torys....it'll be a long time before they make a real recovery - if ever.

The recent victory was against a Tory standing as a independent with Brexit baggage and some moral high ground and no Tory or UKIP candidate. Anyone voting labour in the seat would be seen as a raving loony.

A Tory or UKIP candidate standing would just have increased the Lib-Dem majority, that's why they didn't stand.  To give the pro-brexiteer Tory in all but name a chance of holding onto his seat.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Thailand Express on December 05, 2016, 18:11:26 PM
Meanwhile, the Italians say NO - meaning further instability in the Eurozone and a possible incursion by their own alt-right populists.  Another iceberg about to fall off the EU glacier?


If a political crisis in Italy meant the European Union was in trouble it wouldn't have made it into the 1960s....
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 06, 2016, 09:38:30 AM

If a political crisis in Italy meant the European Union was in trouble it wouldn't have made it into the 1960s....


True, Renzi lasted 2 years. That's pretty good going for an Italian pm
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 06, 2016, 09:55:19 AM
Sounds like some serious "straw-clutching" to me...

The Lib Debs shot themselves in the foot, the leg and the bollocks when they went into coalition with the Torys....it'll be a long time before they make a real recovery - if ever.

What was their alternative in 2010? Coalition with an exhausted New Labour would not have resulted in a majority, at a time when the economy was close to falling off a cliff. Stability was needed - the Lib Dems provided it, and the deficit reduction plan came from their Danny Alexander.


Right now, the Richmond result has ended the possibility of a snap election. If just twenty Tory pro-Remain seats fell to the Lib Dems, surfing the wave of anger from the 48%, the Tories would lose their majority.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 06, 2016, 10:41:35 AM
What was their alternative in 2010? Coalition with an exhausted New Labour would not have resulted in a majority, at a time when the economy was close to falling off a cliff. Stability was needed - the Lib Dems provided it, and the deficit reduction plan came from their Danny Alexander.


Right now, the Richmond result has ended ethe possibility of a snap election. If just twenty Tory pro-Remain seats fell to the Lib Dems, surfing the wave of anger from the 48%, the Tories would lose their majority.


Being the minor party in a coalition always seems to really hurt.


In Ireland over the course of the last 10 years the Progressive Democrats have been wiped completely from the political map. The Green party have just started to recover from virtual Armageddon and the Labour party have been completely decimated.  What do they have in common?  All formed a coalition as a minor party in Government.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on December 06, 2016, 12:00:19 PM
What was their alternative in 2010? Coalition with an exhausted New Labour would not have resulted in a majority, at a time when the economy was close to falling off a cliff. Stability was needed - the Lib Dems provided it, and the deficit reduction plan came from their Danny Alexander.


Plus workers got a wage rise as part of the deal; wouldn't have happened without the Lib Demerals.  A couple of pints every month - cheers, Cleggie!  8)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 06, 2016, 15:13:57 PM
Theresa, Boris and Co are going to have a very tough and busy couple of years ahead...


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michel-barnier-brexit-latest-october-2018-a7458401.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michel-barnier-brexit-latest-october-2018-a7458401.html)


I actually wrote an essay about this guy when I was on my year abroad doing my degree 30 years ago (my God!).  Albertville had been awarded the Winter Olympics and he was a local politician who had promised lots of towns and villages that various competions from the games would be held in their localities.  He did this to garner support.  When the games were awarded the number of venues shrank drastically and not surprisingly annoyed a lot of people.


I think the EU have chosen well. He's a very capable negotiator not afraid of using a trick or two.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 06, 2016, 15:51:01 PM
Theresa, Boris and Co are going to have a very tough and busy couple of years ahead...


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michel-barnier-brexit-latest-october-2018-a7458401.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michel-barnier-brexit-latest-october-2018-a7458401.html)


I actually wrote an essay about this guy when I was on my year abroad doing my degree 30 years ago (my God!).  Albertville had been awarded the Winter Olympics and he was a local politician who had promised lots of towns and villages that various competions from the games would be held in their localities.  He did this to garner support.  When the games were awarded the number of venues shrank drastically and not surprisingly annoyed a lot of people.


I think the EU have chosen well. He's a very capable negotiator not afraid of using a trick or two.
And you admire these people?
So what's happened to Guy Verhofstadt? I thought he'd been put in charge of negotiations - another c**t

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on December 06, 2016, 16:01:36 PM
Statement from Eu's chief negotiator today - clear, considered and precise.

First, unity. Unity is the strength of the European Union. President Juncker and I are determined to preserve the unity and the interests of EU 27. This determination is shared by all governments.
Second, being in the European Union comes with rights and benefits. Third countries can never have the same rights and benefits since they are not subject to the same obligations.
Third, negotiations will not start before notification.
Fourth, the single market and its full freedoms, its four freedoms, are indivisible. Cherry picking is not an option.


Statement from Theresa May our PM.. she wants “a red, white and blue Brexit”.
Jesus wept.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 06, 2016, 16:03:00 PM
The Guy guy is the European Parliament's rep and Barnier represents the Commission.  I imagine they will be working very closely together.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 06, 2016, 16:09:02 PM
Statement from Eu's chief negotiator today - clear, considered and precise.

First, unity. Unity is the strength of the European Union. President Juncker and I are determined to preserve the unity and the interests of EU 27. This determination is shared by all governments.
Second, being in the European Union comes with rights and benefits. Third countries can never have the same rights and benefits since they are not subject to the same obligations.
Third, negotiations will not start before notification.
Fourth, the single market and its full freedoms, its four freedoms, are indivisible. Cherry picking is not an option.


Statement from Theresa May our PM.. she wants “a red, white and blue Brexit”.
Jesus wept.


The EU already knows exactly how they want this to play out and how they want it to work, their objectives etc and are quite happy to voice this in public.  The UK still appears clueless, unless it's some clever secretive strategy
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 06, 2016, 16:47:00 PM
It's worth getting free limited access to ft.com to read this....


https://www.ft.com/content/37b5933c-b884-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62



Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on December 06, 2016, 17:56:43 PM



Statement from Theresa May our PM.. she wants “a red, white and blue Brexit”.



Personally I think we are heading for a brown Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 06, 2016, 18:55:00 PM
Statement from Eu's chief negotiator today - clear, considered and precise.

First, unity. Unity is the strength of the European Union. President Juncker and I are determined to preserve the unity and the interests of EU 27.
Even if it's ultimately against the wishes of their citizens
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 06, 2016, 18:58:03 PM
The Guy guy is the European Parliament's rep and Barnier represents the Commission.  I imagine they will be working very closely together.
Oh, of course I forgot, why have a single person to carry out an EU role when it can be duplicated?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 06, 2016, 18:59:58 PM

The EU already knows exactly how they want this to play out and how they want it to work, their objectives etc and are quite happy to voice this in public.  The UK still appears clueless, unless it's some clever secretive strategy
There's only one strand to the EU's approach and that is to keep the EU together....at any cost.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 06, 2016, 19:23:20 PM
There's only one strand to the EU's approach and that is to keep the EU together....at any cost.


That's the bottom line and is why the UK will end up unhappy with the final deal.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 06, 2016, 19:25:13 PM
Oh, of course I forgot, why have a single person to carry out an EU role when it can be duplicated?


2 people to represent 27 countries. sounds pretty efficient to me!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 06, 2016, 19:29:23 PM
And you admire these people?
So what's happened to Guy Verhofstadt? I thought he'd been put in charge of negotiations - another c**t


He's a bit of a snake but he's a politician. it goes with the territory
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 06, 2016, 19:37:40 PM

That's the bottom line and is why the UK will end up unhappy with the final deal.
I think you're right but it will still be better for the UK to leave the sinking ship. Our economy will probably end up being more successful than any of the 27 we're leaving behind.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 06, 2016, 19:48:08 PM
I think you're right but it will still be better for the UK to leave the sinking ship. Our economy will probably end up being more successful than any of the 27 we're leaving behind.


True, the EU has some serious difficulties to overcome and it could well do without the Brexit distraction. Hopefully 10 years hence it will all be rosy for all parties. It's certainly going to be a very rocky road between now and then.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 06, 2016, 20:23:31 PM

True, the EU has some serious difficulties to overcome and it could well do without the Brexit distraction. Hopefully 10 years hence it will all be rosy for all parties. It's certainly going to be a very rocky road between now and then.
They can certainly do without losing one of their largest contributors of finance. Unless they make some pretty fundamental changes (which I don't believe they're prepared to make) they are toast.
They could start by allowing certain members to remove themselves, in an orderly fashion, from the eurozone. Secondly, place some kind of embargo on free movement until separate economies are more balanced (never?). Thirdly, devise some way of making the commission more accountable ( by comprising elected members). Finally, get to grips with the profligate over-spending and lack of fiscal discipline (start by doing away with Strasbourg).
Address some of those issues and they might pull it back from the brink.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 06, 2016, 21:45:59 PM
UK services sector grew at its fastest rate for ten months in November. Other good news: last month's rise in retail sales was 1.3% compared with 0.7% a year ago; car sales up 2.9% with record number (2.514m) of vehicles registered from January to November.
Makes me think that there would've been a more comfortable win for 'Leave' had the Remain side not used threats of immediate economic doom to scare people out of voting to leave the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on December 06, 2016, 21:47:43 PM
There's only one strand to the EU's approach and that is to keep the EU together....at any cost.
And that's what will be the end of it.
If we'd been admitted in the early days - and been serious about it -  there might have been a more pragmatic EU. It'll never happen now though, the project must be seen through to the end, no matter what the cost.
If we've got to the point where the UK is on the edge of falling apart, what chance for an EU?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 08, 2016, 10:37:47 AM
So, no surprise that EU-loving national treasure, Ken Clarke, stuck to his principles and voted against triggering Article 50 by the end of March in Parliament yesterday but what to make of that whining self-promoter Anna Soubry? Lost her nerve and backed the government, afterall.
Of, course, the fact that she has an 8% majority in Broxtowe and her constituents voted Leave by a majority of 10% probably had nothing to do with it - 'Bottler'
The government should now withdraw their appeal and stand down those eleven wig-wearing procrastinatinors and save the country some money.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on December 08, 2016, 11:11:52 AM
What was their alternative in 2010? Coalition with an exhausted New Labour would not have resulted in a majority, at a time when the economy was close to falling off a cliff. Stability was needed - the Lib Dems provided it, and the deficit reduction plan came from their Danny Alexander.


Right now, the Richmond result has ended the possibility of a snap election. If just twenty Tory pro-Remain seats fell to the Lib Dems, surfing the wave of anger from the 48%, the Tories would lose their majority.

Maybe if they'd remained true to their ideals they would be in a better position...the country certainly didn't think that what they decided to do was worth voting for in the next election....
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on December 08, 2016, 11:14:44 AM
UK services sector grew at its fastest rate for ten months in November. Other good news: last month's rise in retail sales was 1.3% compared with 0.7% a year ago; car sales up 2.9% with record number (2.514m) of vehicles registered from January to November.
Makes me think that there would've been a more comfortable win for 'Leave' had the Remain side not used threats of immediate economic doom to scare people out of voting to leave the EU.

There could be all sorts of other reasons for this...the increase in car sales has been put down to terrible interest rates, so people are thinking that they may as well spend as save. No doubt much of that spending is financed by credit further increasing the national debt

I still reckon that IF the referendum was re-run it would be a "remain" landslide....
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 08, 2016, 11:17:10 AM
So, no surprise that EU-loving national treasure, Ken Clarke, stuck to his principles and voted against triggering Article 50 by the end of March in Parliament yesterday but what to make of that whining self-promoter Anna Soubry? Lost her nerve and backed the government, afterall.
Of, course, the fact that she has an 8% majority in Broxtowe and her constituents voted Leave by a majority of 10% probably had nothing to do with it - 'Bottler'
The government should now withdraw their appeal and stand down those eleven wig-wearing procrastinatinors and save the country some money.


she is representing the wishes of the majority of her constituents, it's what I would expect all MPs to do on this matter.


Interesting to see how the by-election pans out tonight.  The Lib-Dems were able to wipe out a huge Tory majority in a strong remain area.  Let's see what UKIP can do to the Tories in a strong Brexit constituency. At least how much of that large majority can they eat into
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 08, 2016, 11:36:55 AM

I still reckon that IF the referendum was re-run it would be a "remain" landslide....
;D
Your view, of course, is valid but I disagree. Mine is that it would be nearer 60/40 to leave, based on the fact that the immediate and considerable economic damage that was promised by the Remainers was hogwash and everyone, including petrified (reluctant) remain voters can see that as a matter of fact.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 08, 2016, 11:43:08 AM
So, no surprise that EU-loving national treasure, Ken Clarke, stuck to his principles and voted against triggering Article 50 by the end of March in Parliament yesterday but what to make of that whining self-promoter Anna Soubry? Lost her nerve and backed the government, afterall.
Of, course, the fact that she has an 8% majority in Broxtowe and her constituents voted Leave by a majority of 10% probably had nothing to do with it - 'Bottler'
The government should now withdraw their appeal and stand down those eleven wig-wearing procrastinatinors and save the country some money.


should have accepted the result in the first place and not gone to the Supreme Court
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 08, 2016, 13:56:04 PM
They can certainly do without losing one of their largest contributors of finance. Unless they make some pretty fundamental changes (which I don't believe they're prepared to make) they are toast.
They could start by allowing certain members to remove themselves, in an orderly fashion, from the eurozone. Secondly, place some kind of embargo on free movement until separate economies are more balanced (never?). Thirdly, devise some way of making the commission more accountable ( by comprising elected members). Finally, get to grips with the profligate over-spending and lack of fiscal discipline (start by doing away with Strasbourg).
Address some of those issues and they might pull it back from the brink.
I did reply to this earlier but it didn't post so I'll try again.


The UK's net contribution is approx 5 billion out of a budget of 145 billion.  Yes it will hurt a little but it is certainly not insurmountable.


Leaving the Eurozone ?  I don't think the pain of doing so would be worth any beneit that would derive from such a move.  The Euro zone took decades to put in place and removing those structures would be at a huge economic cost.
 
Embargo on free movement?  That will never happen and I don't believe it needs to.  Freedom of movment is an effective mechanism in making seperate economies more balanced anyway.


Yes getting rid of waste is always a good idea and having 2 parliaments is unnecessary.  I do think the whole wasteful EU thing is over-played though.It is no more wasteful than any national governrment
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 08, 2016, 14:13:49 PM

The UK's net contribution is approx 5 billion out of a budget of 145 billion. 
You're about £3.5bn short in your approximation (just under 40, 200-bed hospitals)
https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/ (https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 08, 2016, 14:24:26 PM
You're about £3.5bn short in your approximation (just under 40, 200-bed hospitals)
https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/ (https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/)


Thanks for the correction.  The EU will still be able to handle that kind of loss I would imagine.  I wonder how many 200 bed hospitals  will be forgone by the UK in leaving the EU ?



Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 08, 2016, 15:44:23 PM
I think Bez could well be right.....


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CzD0AotWQAAuS6P.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 08, 2016, 18:26:54 PM
I think Bez could well be right.....


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CzD0AotWQAAuS6P.jpg)
Possibly the biggest load of cobblers ever posted on here
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on December 08, 2016, 19:01:33 PM
Why is BJ still Foreign Secretary? Again he has been reprimanded by the government for making spurious statements (Saudi this time), if he is not towing the governmental line what on earth is he doing?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 08, 2016, 19:15:09 PM
Why is BJ still Foreign Secretary? Again he has been reprimanded by the government for making spurious statements (Saudi this time), if he is not towing the governmental line what on earth is he doing?
He's a buffoon who should never have been given the job in the first place - poor judgement by Mrs May.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 08, 2016, 19:22:34 PM
Possibly the biggest load of cobblers ever posted on here


Thanks  ;D . Do I get an award?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 08, 2016, 19:29:16 PM
;D
Your view, of course, is valid but I disagree. Mine is that it would be nearer 60/40 to leave, based on the fact that the immediate and considerable economic damage that was promised by the Remainers was hogwash and everyone, including petrified (reluctant) remain voters can see that as a matter of fact.
Speaking as a reluctant Remainer, who voted for positive reasons and ignored Project Fear, I am yet to be convinced. Carney immediately dumped £80B of QE in, remember. 


The economic argument was only part of it, anyway.....
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 08, 2016, 20:55:02 PM
Speaking as a reluctant Remainer, who voted for positive reasons and ignored Project Fear, I am yet to be convinced. Carney immediately dumped £80B of QE in, remember. 

Of course your yet to be convinced........we haven't left yet. Carney is an embarrassment.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 08, 2016, 22:23:10 PM
Of course your yet to be convinced........we haven't left yet. Carney is an embarrassment.
What would have happened if he hadn't embarrassed you?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 09, 2016, 00:04:14 AM
What would have happened if he hadn't embarrassed you?
Oh no, he didn't embarrass me - possibly himself, certainly his office. In his time he's failed in virtually all his predictions (forward guidance  ::) ). Total knee-jerk reaction to cut interest rates post referendum when the economy was doing well. Should have kept his mouth shut (given his past performance) during the campaign.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 09, 2016, 00:10:23 AM
Cleggy's missus is completely embarrassing herself on This Week with her typical glowing assessment of the success of the EU. Neil and Portillo are putting her right though.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 09, 2016, 07:20:50 AM
Sleaford is a Tory hold as expected. UKIP second. Lib Dems get a 5% swing in a big Leave constituency. Labour knocked into fourth place, after losing their deposit in Richmond.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 09, 2016, 07:22:48 AM
Oh no, he didn't embarrass me - possibly himself, certainly his office. In his time he's failed in virtually all his predictions (forward guidance  ::) ). Total knee-jerk reaction to cut interest rates post referendum when the economy was doing well. Should have kept his mouth shut (given his past performance) during the campaign.
But what would have happened without the £80B of QE?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 09, 2016, 10:56:10 AM
But what would have happened without the £80B of QE?
Base level interest rates may have risen by a small amount to somewhere closer to 'normal' levels and hard pressed savers may have finally been given some good news.  Inflation would have risen closer towards  BoE target of 2%. Businesses would have survived this adjustment back towards normality and consumers, who have enjoyed low prices on food etc. for years, would have too.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 09, 2016, 10:58:01 AM
McDonalds to move their european financial base from Luxembourg to the UK
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 09, 2016, 10:59:59 AM
Sleaford is a Tory hold as expected. UKIP second. Lib Dems get a 5% swing in a big Leave constituency. Labour knocked into fourth place, after losing their deposit in Richmond.
The demise of The Labour Party continues
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 09, 2016, 11:51:17 AM
McDonalds to move their european financial base from Luxembourg to the UK


So that's the plan for the UK post Brexit.  To become a tax haven?  Weather not as favourable as Bermuda unfortunately
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on December 09, 2016, 13:10:05 PM
Why is BJ still Foreign Secretary? Again he has been reprimanded by the government for making spurious statements (Saudi this time), if he is not towing the governmental line what on earth is he doing?


To be fair he was only speaking the truth when he was making those statements - probably not the sort of truth that should be vocalised by someone in his position though........
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on December 09, 2016, 13:39:31 PM
I agree that it may well be the truth but he is supposed to be a diplomat. If we are going to expand our exports outside of Europe this does not help. Unfrortunately making business more difficult with our European partners may necessitate dealing with unpalatable other Countries.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 09, 2016, 13:50:18 PM
I agree that it may well be the truth but he is supposed to be a diplomat. If we are going to expand our exports outside of Europe this does not help. Unfrortunately making business more difficult with our European partners may necessitate dealing with unpalatable other Countries.
Well, there's always been a lot more money in selling warplanes to the Saudis than selling white flags to the French  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 09, 2016, 14:35:38 PM
Base level interest rates may have risen by a small amount to somewhere closer to 'normal' levels and hard pressed savers may have finally been given some good news.  Inflation would have risen closer towards  BoE target of 2%. Businesses would have survived this adjustment back towards normality and consumers, who have enjoyed low prices on food etc. for years, would have too.
So your view is that those effects are more important than protecting Sterling.


Oops! Tim Farron is facing a revolt as three of his nine MPs abstain from the recent timetable for withdrawal motion. I had a debate with a LD strategist about this. He said all the LD MPs should not try to retard A50 further, while I said surely the MPs' decision must be on a constituency basis. If they are in a Remain area, they should try to stop A50 or amend it to a watered down type of Brexit.


I will make a prediction. By March 2018 we will be out of the EU, but still in the single market and customs union with certain constraints on free movement such as those Cameron sought to secure. In other words there will be a giant fudge and we will be in the same position as before except lacking any clout in terms of decision making, in effect joining EFTA.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 09, 2016, 14:58:15 PM
So your view is that those effects are more important than protecting Sterling.


Oops! Tim Farron is facing a revolt as three of his nine MPs abstain from the Recent timetable for withdrawal motion. I had a debate with a LD strategist about this. He said all the LD MPs should not try to retard A50 further, while I said surely the MPs' decision must be on a constituency basis. If they are in a Remain area, they should try to stop A50 or amend it to a watered down type of Brexit.


I will make a prediction. By March 2018 we will be out of the EU, but still in the single market and customs union with certain constraints on free movement such as those Cameron sought to secure. In other words there will be a giant fudge and we will be in the same position as before except lacking any clout in terms of decision making, in effect joining EFTA.
The 'correction' in the value of sterling has been a boon for exporters and retail sales.
My prediction is that we will be out of the EU but will probably end up with a compromise on the single market that allows free movement of labour. This would be a fudge that many would accept. We will not be in the same position as before (obviously) as contributions (if any) will fall a long way short of £8.5bn per annum. That is, of course, if such a thing as the EU still exists in 2018.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 09, 2016, 15:10:59 PM
Well done Verhoftstat.  Pratical and helpful


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-keep-freedom-of-movement-guy-verhofstadt-chief-negotiator-opt-in-passports-a7465271.html?cmpid=facebook-post
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on December 14, 2016, 16:04:14 PM
https://www.thesun.co.uk/living/2387506/lego-is-increasing-prices-by-5-from-next-month-because-of-the-brexit-vote/


Lego prices increase due to Brexit  ??? ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 15, 2016, 10:28:00 AM
Unemployment has fallen to an 11-year low.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 15, 2016, 10:39:32 AM
Unemployment has fallen to an 11-year low.


yes it was all going so well....
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on December 15, 2016, 13:34:06 PM
Unemployment has fallen to an 11-year low.

Inflation up and predicted to rise faster than the "ideal rate" due to increased costs for imported raw materials....

Balance in everything required, including short sighted adherence to a poor nationally taken decision... :P
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 15, 2016, 13:37:19 PM

yes it was is all going so well....
fixed
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 15, 2016, 13:49:49 PM
Inflation up and predicted to rise faster than the "ideal rate" due to increased costs for imported raw materials....

Balance in everything required, including short sighted adherence to a poor nationally taken decision... :P
We know how much faith you can put in (economic) predictions. Obviously not rising at a fast enough rate for the BoE/government who consider an ideal inflation 'target' to be 2%  :P :P
 
Current evidence suggests that the nationally taken decision has not yet turned out to be as poor as you had hoped it would be. At the moment you'll just have to keep praying for the country to collapse..I'm afraid  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on December 15, 2016, 14:27:12 PM
We know how much faith you can put in (economic) predictions. Obviously not rising at a fast enough rate for the BoE/government who consider an ideal inflation 'target' to be 2%  :P :P
 
Current evidence suggests that the nationally taken decision has not yet turned out to be as poor as you had hoped it would be. At the moment you'll just have to keep praying for the country to collapse..I'm afraid  ;)

I'd like to think that you'll be apologising for these posts in the future, but you seem to be as intractable as Slim in your dogma... :P

The last thing I want is for the country to go down the pan - I've worked hard over the years and have no mortgage, cash in the bank / investments and decent pension to look forward to....
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 15, 2016, 17:12:42 PM
I'd like to think that you'll be apologising for these posts in the future, but you seem to be as intractable as Slim in your dogma... :P

Of course things may get rough, I'm not foolish enough to think that there is not a possibility of some economic hardship ahead (especially if the EU choose to 'punish' us for our decision) but, unlike yourself, I hope that apology won't be necessary  ;)
I am, afterall, just stating the facts as they stand, at present - your time may yet come  ;)
As for your investments: increasing inflation equals higher interest rates for your cash and your investment/pension will be doing OK at the moment with the FTSE nudging 7000. No need to sell the family silver just yet  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 15, 2016, 20:53:44 PM
It won't be a choice to punish the UK but a choice to preserve the integrity of the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 15, 2016, 22:36:35 PM
It won't be a choice to punish the UK but a choice to preserve the integrity of the EU.
I'm fairly certain that, in the minds of the EU commissars, enacting the former will help ensure the latter.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 15, 2016, 23:58:25 PM
I'm fairly certain that, in the minds of the EU commissars, enacting the former will help ensure the latter.


We're splitting hairs as the net effect is the same but in the minds of those in the EU it's about self preservation. The Brits may well view it ss a punishment.


A one off or the shape  of things to come....?


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-pink-wafer-company-administration-rivington-biscuits-cut-100-jobs-pound-sterling-value-drop-a7476881.html?cmpid=facebook-post

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 16, 2016, 01:09:33 AM

We're splitting hairs as the net effect is the same but in the minds of those in the EU it's about self preservation. The Brits may well view it ss a punishment.


A one off or the shape  of things to come....?


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-pink-wafer-company-administration-rivington-biscuits-cut-100-jobs-pound-sterling-value-drop-a7476881.html?cmpid=facebook-post (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-pink-wafer-company-administration-rivington-biscuits-cut-100-jobs-pound-sterling-value-drop-a7476881.html?cmpid=facebook-post)
That's sad for those who wil lose their jobs. Terrible biscuits though, has to be said ......and that's official  ;)


http://metro.co.uk/2015/06/01/21-british-biscuits-ranked-from-worst-to-best-the-definitive-list-5224653/

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 16, 2016, 07:28:35 AM
That's sad for those who wil lose their jobs. Terrible biscuits though, has to be said ......and that's official  ;)


http://metro.co.uk/2015/06/01/21-british-biscuits-ranked-from-worst-to-best-the-definitive-list-5224653/ (http://metro.co.uk/2015/06/01/21-british-biscuits-ranked-from-worst-to-best-the-definitive-list-5224653/)


That's shocking! Nice biscuits should be much higher up the list. (Was never a fan of those pink wafers though, I have to admit).


Apart from that the ranking is a traversty!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 16, 2016, 08:48:36 AM

That's shocking! Nice biscuits should be much higher up the list. (Was never a fan of those pink wafers though, I have to admit).


Apart from that the ranking is a traversty!
As a committed eurosceptic, I proudly admit that neither the Viennese Whirl or the Viennese Sandwich have ever found their way into my biscuit barrel (and 'Nice' means pleasant... not a poncey seaside resort in France)  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 16, 2016, 10:26:54 AM
As a committed eurosceptic, I proudly admit that neither the Viennese Whirl or the Viennese Sandwich have ever found their way into my biscuit barrel (and 'Nice' means pleasant... not a poncey seaside resort in France)  ;)


Typical eurosceptic spin!  And I'd much rather be in Nice than Skegness or Blackpool!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 16, 2016, 10:41:37 AM
'EU-turn' from King Rat

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/bob-geldof-launches-attack-on-european-union-a7478796.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/bob-geldof-launches-attack-on-european-union-a7478796.html)

 ;D 
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on December 16, 2016, 11:01:02 AM

Typical eurosceptic spin!  And I'd much rather be in Nice than Skegness or Blackpool!
At least Skeg Vegas has a Sandy beach, not like the bum numbing, foot aching pebbles of Nice. The inhabitants speak a form of English too...
I'd like to send the people who go to Skeggy to Nice, see how long it is before they get a Promenade des Chavs...

As a committed Eurosceptic I will happily eat Viennese Whirls, I enjoy Chco Leibniz. I have no problem with other European Countries existing. I do have a problem with an overarching sclerotic Eurostate. Let's trade, let's cooperate, but let's not be a Eurostate.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 16, 2016, 11:41:53 AM

As a committed Eurosceptic I will happily eat Viennese Whirls, I enjoy Chco Leibniz. I have no problem with other European Countries existing. I do have a problem with an overarching sclerotic Eurostate. Let's trade, let's cooperate, but let's not be a Eurostate.
I concur  ;)

I have to admit that my favourite is the Teutonic treat that is Liebniz.
 How a prominent mathematician, responsible for differential and integral calculus, could ever find time to develop such a chocolate-coated classic is beyond me  :-\
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 17, 2016, 12:31:13 PM
'EU-turn' from King Rat

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/bob-geldof-launches-attack-on-european-union-a7478796.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/bob-geldof-launches-attack-on-european-union-a7478796.html)

 ;D
I think you can be a Europhile and still accept that the EU has serious problems requiring reform.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 17, 2016, 16:04:39 PM
I think you can be a Europhile and still accept that the EU has serious problems requiring reform.
Only a true Europhile could accept that the EU will acknowledge that fact and carry out meaningful reform (before it disintegrates).
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 17, 2016, 16:27:34 PM
CBI yesterday reported manufacturing output at its highest since mid-2014.


Also announced yesterday: Lidl to create 5000 new jobs in the UK. They plan to open nearly 250 new stores in the capital as part of a three-year £1.5bn investment program which includes a new £70m London HQ.
A big vote of confidence in the post-Brexit economy......from the Germans of all people  :)


Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Chris Quartly on December 17, 2016, 22:07:49 PM
This is all rather silly. You can't say "but we haven't exited the EU yet, this is scare-mongering" when someone posts something bad, and then say "this is great in this post-Brexit economy" when something good happens (when again, we haven't left the EU yet), the flip-flopping by various people in this thread is astonishing, perhaps some should consider a change of career... might I suggest politics.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 18, 2016, 00:10:56 AM
This is all rather silly. You can't say "but we haven't exited the EU yet, this is scare-mongering" when someone posts something bad, and then say "this is great in this post-Brexit economy" when something good happens (when again, we haven't left the EU yet), the flip-flopping by various people in this thread is astonishing, perhaps some should consider a change of career... might I suggest politics.
Read it more closely Chris, what I said was that a three-year investment is a vote of confidence in a post-Brexit economy. That is not open to interpretation, as you suggest. No flip-flopping from me here only a recognition that the immediate effects of a Leave vote that were prophesised by the Remain campaign were a based on a tissue of lies.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on December 18, 2016, 10:40:55 AM
I still feel very uneasy about the UK's prospects post Brexit and still believe there will be a GE before we leave.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 18, 2016, 21:40:31 PM
Only a true Europhile could accept that the EU will acknowledge that fact and carry out meaningful reform (before it disintegrates).
I don't think it will disintegrate, but it might implode like a neutron star - there will be a stable neutronium inner core made of Germany, France, Benelux, Denmark and Sweden, while the deadbeats such as Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece get blown off into space and go into orbit as associate members.


Perhaps we will be in some sort of Commonwealth common market (but not political union) by then.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 18, 2016, 23:33:57 PM
I don't think it will disintegrate, but it might implode like a neutron star - there will be a stable neutronium inner core made of Germany, France, Benelux, Denmark and Sweden, while the deadbeats such as Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece get blown off into space and go into orbit as associate members.


Perhaps we will be in some sort of Commonwealth common market (but not political union) by then.
That's a very perceptive comment, Mr Target.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Chris Quartly on December 19, 2016, 01:17:33 AM
Read it more closely Chris, what I said was that a three-year investment is a vote of confidence in a post-Brexit economy. That is not open to interpretation, as you suggest. No flip-flopping from me here only a recognition that the immediate effects of a Leave vote that were prophesised by the Remain campaign were a based on a tissue of lies.


It's not just that one post (and it's not just you).
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 19, 2016, 07:09:03 AM

It's not just that one post (and it's not just you).
Your post appeared pertinent - context is everything  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Chris Quartly on December 19, 2016, 15:25:36 PM

I said "the flip-flopping by various people in this thread is astonishing, perhaps some should consider a change of career... might I suggest politics." ;)


Your post appeared pertinent - context is everything  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 19, 2016, 16:37:15 PM

I said "the flip-flopping by various people in this thread is astonishing, perhaps some should consider a change of career... might I suggest politics." ;)

I'll take that...............well-played  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 19, 2016, 19:25:37 PM
That's a very perceptive comment, Mr Target.
Thanks. One does one's best.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 20, 2016, 13:53:24 PM
IMF head Christine Lagarde convicted of negligence by French court. Unfortunately it looks like the Remain-supporting, bullshitting clothes-horses will avoid doing porridge - shame.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on December 20, 2016, 23:03:57 PM
probably because negligence is a civil wrong (tort) not criminal? ::)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 20, 2016, 23:47:43 PM
probably because negligence is a civil wrong (tort) not criminal? ::)
Ms Lagarde, 60, was tried on charges of "negligence by a person in position of public authority".
Accused of allowing the misuse of public funds, rather than actual corruption, she could potentially have been sentenced to a year in prison and a fine of €15,000, but escaped a sentence and emerges from the trial without a criminal record - BBC News
 :P   
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on December 21, 2016, 07:25:42 AM
so she was innocent of the charge? :P
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 21, 2016, 09:47:53 AM
so she was innocent of the charge? :P
This one whiffs a bit. After Dominic Strauss-Kahn, I'm sure there was no desire to brand the head of the IMF a criminal and in some quarters she is revered as a'rock-star' financier that's done a huge amount for the IMF's profile. She's suffered some reputational damage but will be allowed to continue.
As reported, she was facing a possible prison sentence. In my view, she deserves a spell inside for the part she's played in helping to destroy the hopes of many young Greeks and for attempting to blackmail the UK electorate.
About as close to an establishment stitch-up as you can get.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on December 21, 2016, 10:24:14 AM
Brilliant!
 'Air pollution promoting' Lib 'Dem' exposed as just another pious, contemptuous liberal air-head. That would've wiped the smile of that little weasel Farron's face, for sure. After his ridiculous grandstanding about the by-election result (and what it stood for) he deserves nothing less. Bit soon to crow about a march back to political relevance, I feel - even with one extra, there's still a few spare seats on the minibus for the Lib'Dem' MP's Xmas outing.  ;D

Farron must be one of the most dishonest politicians I can remember - quite openly insisting that we stay in the Single Market, despite assurances given by both sides in the referendum campaign that a successful NO vote meant we would leave. When you think of the fuss over the so-called "promise" over NHS funding it's astonishing that he can get away with taking a stance like that. He must assume his potential support for it is either pig-ignorant or basically contemptuous of democracy, and perhaps he's right. The little man is as loathsome as he's effeminate.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Richard_2112 on December 21, 2016, 22:49:09 PM
Pesky EU determining that indiscriminately retaining emails and snooping on our citizens is massively illegal.

 https://www.theguardian.com/law/2016/dec/21/eus-highest-court-delivers-blow-to-uk-snoopers-charter

Loving the fact that it was our very own Brexit Minister David Davis who brought this up in the first place.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 21, 2016, 23:35:44 PM
It doesn't matter that  EU laws are often better thought out and designed than UK ones.  All that matters is that the UK makes its own rules even if the general population is worse off as a result.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 22, 2016, 00:12:52 AM
It doesn't matter that  EU laws are often better thought out and designed than UK ones.
The 'best' one is the one that prevents a suspected terrorist from being deported before he murders 12 of your citizens......because he doesn't have a valid passport.
Oh, he has now...oops.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 22, 2016, 00:22:35 AM
The 'best' one is the one that prevents a suspected terrorist from being deported before he murders 12 of your citizens......because he doesn't have a valid passport.
Oh, he has now...oops.


yes that's right - British law prevented any terrorist atrocities being carried out in its own country
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 22, 2016, 07:14:29 AM

yes that's right - British law prevented any terrorist atrocities being carried out in its own country
Most of our atrocities were perpetrated by our own citizens - not those invited into the country as 'refugees'.

It gets 'better'. He's a convicted criminal who served four years in Italy for arson. There's culpability everywhere you look - as if it's not horrific enough for the families of the victims.
Keep your heads in the sand. Keep laying the wreaths and attending the candle-lit vigils. Meanwhile IS continue to laugh at the stupid Europeans.
Schengen should help them catch up with him  >:(
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on December 22, 2016, 08:23:59 AM
Most of our atrocities were perpetrated by our own citizens - not those invited into the country as 'refugees'.

It gets 'better'. He's a convicted criminal who served four years in Italy for arson. There's culpability everywhere you look - as if it's not horrific enough for the families of the victims.
Keep your heads in the sand. Keep laying the wreaths and attending the candle-lit vigils. Meanwhile IS continue to laugh at the stupid Europeans.
Schengen should help them catch up with him  >:(

.....and your solution is ?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 22, 2016, 09:11:51 AM
https://www.opendemocracy.net/neweconomics/britain-is-not-what-it-thinks-it-is/
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 22, 2016, 10:59:08 AM
.....and your solution is ?
:)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on December 23, 2016, 11:13:42 AM
It doesn't matter that  EU laws are often better thought out and designed than UK ones.  All that matters is that the UK makes its own rules even if the general population is worse off as a result.

That's genuinely absolutely correct, because whether laws are "better thought out and designed" is a subjective judgement best left to those who are governed by them.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 23, 2016, 14:14:22 PM
The ONS reports the UK economy has grown faster than predicted in the three months after the referendum.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 23, 2016, 17:54:34 PM
BOE 'chief Brexit bullshitter' under pressure:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-4059586/MPs-probe-Bank-England-s-monetary-policy-record-low-rates.html (http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-4059586/MPs-probe-Bank-England-s-monetary-policy-record-low-rates.html)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on December 24, 2016, 10:21:38 AM
Jacob Rees-Mogg nails the hypocrisy of the Remoaners. Scintillating speech.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCruskU8_Jw
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on December 24, 2016, 10:47:26 AM
BOE 'chief Brexit bullshitter' under pressure:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-4059586/MPs-probe-Bank-England-s-monetary-policy-record-low-rates.html (http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-4059586/MPs-probe-Bank-England-s-monetary-policy-record-low-rates.html)


was about to read it then noticed it was the author was City and Finance reporter of the Daily Mail, I do wonder where Dacre stands on EU? ::)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 24, 2016, 13:40:15 PM

was about to read it then noticed it was the author was City and Finance reporter of the Daily Mail, I do wonder where Dacre stands on EU? ::)
But it is a fact
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 28, 2016, 14:28:22 PM
Santa brought me Ken Clarke's autobiography Kind of Blue.  It's a quick and engrossing read. 
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 28, 2016, 18:26:06 PM
Santa brought me Ken Clarke's autobiography Kind of Blue.  It's a quick and engrossing read.
I got Five on Brexit Island. Looking forward to it!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 28, 2016, 20:38:48 PM
I got Five on Brexit Island. Looking forward to it!
I got Flying Free - Nigel Farage (cue 'bog paper' jokes  ;) )
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 28, 2016, 20:41:35 PM
FTSE 100 hit a record high at today's close. Great for pension funds.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 28, 2016, 22:32:21 PM
I got Flying Free - Nigel Farage (cue 'bog paper' jokes  ;) )


No wouldn't dare to judge without reading it! I do wonder which of the 2 is a better work of fiction and/or comedy though!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on December 28, 2016, 23:01:48 PM
FTSE 100 hit a record high at today's close. Great for pension funds.


we haven't left yet
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 28, 2016, 23:51:37 PM

we haven't left yet
Perhaps the City believes we never will  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 29, 2016, 00:02:12 AM
Meanwhile in the economic basket case that is the eurozone: Italian taxpayers are on the hook for €20bn to save the world's oldest  bank, Monte dei Paschi. Apparently Italy's banks hold a third of the eurozone's total bad loans.
I hope we're out before those dominoes start to fall.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on December 29, 2016, 07:41:07 AM
FTSE 100 hit a record high at today's close. Great for pension funds.
About blummin' time too..... this has long concerned me.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on December 29, 2016, 10:57:27 AM
The markets are high because most of the FTSE 100 trade worldwide and are therefore priced in dollars. The weak pound makes them worth more, the FTSE 100 is always elevated when sterling is low I thought?

Most of the increase this year is due to the rise of value of o/s mining stocks too I've read in the FT
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on December 29, 2016, 10:58:14 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dh_Og-MjWZI
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on December 29, 2016, 11:03:49 AM
FTSE 100 hit a record high at today's close. Great for pension funds.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/27/why-we-should-be-looking-at-the-ftse-250-and-not-the-ftse-100-to/
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 29, 2016, 11:22:49 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dh_Og-MjWZI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dh_Og-MjWZI)
Those Guardian guys are very clever
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 29, 2016, 11:37:11 AM

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/27/why-we-should-be-looking-at-the-ftse-250-and-not-the-ftse-100-to/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/27/why-we-should-be-looking-at-the-ftse-250-and-not-the-ftse-100-to/)
The FTSE 250 is currently around 18,000 which is not far off its (post referendum) high which was in early October. However you choose to look at it - equities are doing well at the moment. There's a lot of confidence in UK plc.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on December 29, 2016, 14:18:17 PM
Those Guardian guys are very clever


Cassetteboy isn't one of theirs, been at it for years
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on December 29, 2016, 14:19:13 PM
The FTSE 250 is currently around 18,000 which is not far off its (post referendum) high which was in early October. However you choose to look at it - equities are doing well at the moment. There's a lot of confidence in UK plc.


you should start buying stocks then
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on December 29, 2016, 14:53:16 PM

you should start buying stocks then
Always buying - feel it's my duty to be optimistic  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on December 31, 2016, 10:51:55 AM
Only loosely brexit related but a fascinating article nonetheless

[size=0px]http://econ.st/2i9VZdJ[/size]


Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 03, 2017, 12:44:33 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/30/britain-has-secured-15billion-extra-foreign-investment-since/

The Department for International Trade has attracted over £15 billion of foreign investment to the UK since the Brexit vote. Good times.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 03, 2017, 13:12:48 PM
Only loosely brexit related but a fascinating article nonetheless

[size=0px]http://econ.st/2i9VZdJ[/size]


Just seen that the link didn't work...


http://www.economist.com/news/christmas-specials/21712047-england-indelibly-european-how-norman-rule-reshaped-england
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 03, 2017, 13:28:31 PM
it's going really well


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-4084182/Britains-EU-envoy-Ivan-Rogers-resigns--FT.html (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-4084182/Britains-EU-envoy-Ivan-Rogers-resigns--FT.html)


Farage to be appointed his successor ?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 03, 2017, 17:07:23 PM
Yes, that is rather good news.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 03, 2017, 17:15:04 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/30/britain-has-secured-15billion-extra-foreign-investment-since/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/30/britain-has-secured-15billion-extra-foreign-investment-since/)

The Department for International Trade has attracted over £15 billion of foreign investment to the UK since the Brexit vote. Good times.


so £12Bn of that is from a European company (Denmark) for renewable energy projects by 2020 and £2.5bn from China for 25,000 modular homes.... do these sort of deals normally go on or are they because of the Referendum result?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 03, 2017, 22:38:21 PM

so £12Bn of that is from a European company (Denmark) for renewable energy projects by 2020 and £2.5bn from China for 25,000 modular homes.... do these sort of deals normally go on or are they because of the Referendum result?


The Daily Telegraph is transforming to the Daily Express before our eyes.  Amazing how Brexit can bring the worst out of people
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 03, 2017, 22:45:04 PM
Yes, that is rather good news.


By all accounts the man has an encylopedic knowledge of the EU and its institutions and is closely connected to the movers and shakers.  I suppose that qualifies him as an expert and we all know the country is better run without them getting involved
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 08, 2017, 17:57:17 PM

By all accounts the man has an encylopedic knowledge of the EU and its institutions and is closely connected to the movers and shakers.  I suppose that qualifies him as an expert and we all know the country is better run without them getting involved
The man played a large part in Cameron's hopeless pre-referendum negotiations with the EU (where he secured absolutely zilch). If he was a 'good' negotiator we'd probably not be leaving the EU. Good riddance to the pessimistic doom monger.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 09, 2017, 00:22:46 AM

The Daily Telegraph is transforming to the Daily Express before our eyes.  Amazing how Brexit can bring the worst out of people
;D   Classic 'Remoaning'.
Stick to The Guardian to preserve your faith in humanity ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 09, 2017, 09:13:08 AM
;D   Classic 'Remoaning'.
Stick to The Guardian to preserve your faith in humanity ;)


Well I think we're all probably guilty of going to sources to that tell us our World view is correct. That article from the Telegraph was horribly misleading though.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 11, 2017, 10:53:53 AM
LA-based social media company, Snapchat, to set up an HQ in London, from where it will conduct all international business.
Survey by The Federation of Small Businesses indicated confidence among its members is now at its highest since the referendum. Increasing confidence reflecting the fact that the UK ended 2016 with the fastest growing economy in the G7.
FTSE 100 finished the day on another high after a record-breaking nine-day run.
The incoming US administration appears to want to quickly conclude a trade deal with the U.K., rather than place it at the 'back of the queue', as suggested by the bullshitting Obama.
"There's nothing to fear but fear itself" as John Redwood, FDR and Neil Peart would put it.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 11, 2017, 13:57:26 PM
just wait til A50 is triggered, the FTSE will be a brave market then
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 11, 2017, 14:02:15 PM
Data released today from the ONS for November show a mixed picture.
Trade deficit gap widens to £600m more than predicted (causing new pressures on sterling). Exports at record levels but imports sharply up too.
Construction growth down 0.2% (although house building continues to grow)
On the positive side, manufacturing grew to a, better than expected, 1.3%

"There may be trouble ahead....."
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 11, 2017, 14:04:16 PM
just wait til A50 is triggered, the FTSE will be a brave market then
I don't understand why that would be. That is just a 'notional' point at which negotiations are officially started. The market knows when it will be so I'm sure it is 'built-in' to the prices.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 13, 2017, 00:38:18 AM
the FTSE 100 simply shows current performance, 80% of the Companies that contribute deal in dollars, the weak pound is the reason behind its recent significant rise
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 13, 2017, 10:23:36 AM
the FTSE 100 simply shows current performance, 80% of the Companies that contribute deal in dollars, the weak pound is the reason behind its recent significant rise
The index is built on sentiment as much as fundamentals.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 13, 2017, 12:14:29 PM

The Daily Telegraph is transforming to the Daily Express before our eyes.  Amazing how Brexit can bring the worst out of people

Come Dom, you're saying nothing. In any case there are considerably worse newspapers than the Telegraph - the Mirror, the Guardian for example.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 13, 2017, 12:15:32 PM

Well I think we're all probably guilty of going to sources to that tell us our World view is correct. That article from the Telegraph was horribly misleading though.

Could you explain how it misled?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 13, 2017, 12:26:39 PM
Interesting contributions to the national discussion from Mark Carney in recent days:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/01/12/bank-of-englands-mark-carney-hard-brexits-a-problem-for-the-eu-not-britain/#6a62ce77192e

"The risks to financial stability of a hard Brexit really lie with the countries remaining in the European Union, not with Britain which is leaving"

and

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/03/bank-of-england-stages-post-brexit-u-turn-as-it-hikes-growth-for/

"The Bank of England has almost doubled its economic growth forecast for 2017 and scrapped its planned interest rate cut, in a dramatic U-turn on its earlier warnings that the economy would suffer a severe post-referendum crunch"


All of which reinforces the proposition, already fairly well established, that a lot of the misguided 48% were persuaded to cast their votes to remain as a consequence of lies and scaremongering. No emergency budget either, and no "back of the queue".

I have to think that if the campaign had been fought more honestly, the result would have been even more decisive. Still - victory was achieved nonetheless,
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on January 13, 2017, 13:30:18 PM
I have to think that if the campaign had been fought more honestly, the result would have been even more decisive.
Obviously that's an answerable thought, but let's not forget both sides were guilty of campaigning on lies and scaremongering in equal measure. So on that basis the result I think would still have been tight even if all the arguments used were honest ones.

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 13, 2017, 13:41:58 PM
Obviously that's an answerable thought, but let's not forget both sides were guilty of campaigning on lies and scaremongering in equal measure.
;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 13, 2017, 15:04:05 PM
Obviously that's an answerable thought, but let's not forget both sides were guilty of campaigning on lies and scaremongering in equal measure.

How did you arrive at that conclusion?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on January 13, 2017, 15:46:43 PM
Well I'd rather focus collective energy on moving forward positively as one but you know as well as I do for every "doom" moment from remain there was a "Turks are coming lads batten down the hatches", "European Army is happening we'll have no control of our Armed Forces" and I won't even mention that "Bus message".I call those types of statements Lies and Scaremonger as much as "The Pound will crash we'll all live in poverty for decades come Brexit" from Remain.

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on January 13, 2017, 16:13:27 PM
Obviously that's an answerable thought, but let's not forget both sides were guilty of campaigning on lies and scaremongering in equal measure. So on that basis the result I think would still have been tight even if all the arguments used were honest ones.


Yep, much of the standard of debate was really poor from both sides. Dave and Gideon making up £4K losses to each family in their heads post-Brexit, Boris making up numbers about NHS spending, Leave.EU blowing the dog whistle with imaginary armies of foreign-looking men.


On the Leave side I thought Daniel Hannan was highly persuasive concerning new trade opportunities, and on the Remain side Sir Nicholas Soames and Gordon Brown did inspiring videos.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 13, 2017, 16:54:39 PM

Boris making up numbers about NHS spending. Leave.EU blowing the dog whistle with imaginary armies of foreign-looking men



;D
 ('armies', 'imaginary' and 'foreign-looking' are your own terms, I take it?)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on January 13, 2017, 18:13:44 PM
;D
 ('armies', 'imaginary' and 'foreign-looking' are your own terms, I take it?)
All my terms are my own terms, naturally. 😁
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 13, 2017, 19:46:51 PM
All my terms are my own terms, naturally. 😁
I believe it's known as 'poetic licence'  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on January 14, 2017, 12:34:59 PM
I believe it's known as 'poetic licence'  ;)


Dunno about poetic, but I've been call licentious a few times. 😉
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 15, 2017, 12:18:05 PM
Well I'd rather focus collective energy on moving forward positively as one but you know as well as I do for every "doom" moment from remain there was a "Turks are coming lads batten down the hatches", "European Army is happening we'll have no control of our Armed Forces" and I won't even mention that "Bus message".I call those types of statements Lies and Scaremonger as much as "The Pound will crash we'll all live in poverty for decades come Brexit" from Remain.

The "bus message" or rather its interpretation is actually a classic example of a Remainer lie sadly, so I rather think you're making my point for me, Keith. The actual message on the side of that bus, put there by the Vote Leave campaign  was "We send the EU £350 million a week. let's fund our NHS instead".

Len McCluskey said "Let's make Brexit the moment to break with neo-liberal economics" following the vote, but when that doesn't actually happen (in his terms) I don't think anyone will accuse him of lying, will they?

Compare this with the assurance, boldly and unambiguously stated before the referendum by members of the government, both then and now, that a successful Leave vote would mean the UK leaving the single market. Now THAT, in contrast, is unambiguously a promise.

There's no doubt that the Remain campaign was overwhelmingly dishonest to a dramatically greater degree than the campaign to leave, and I think that's reflected in the exaggerated number of votes it managed to provoke.


Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 15, 2017, 12:18:54 PM
Boris making up numbers about NHS spending

Do you have a reference for this?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 15, 2017, 12:35:59 PM
This is rather nice to see:

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-to-reveal-brexit-plans-in-major-speech-on-tuesday-a3440916.html (http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-to-reveal-brexit-plans-in-major-speech-on-tuesday-a3440916.html)

Theresa May is expected to give the most detailed insight yet into her Brexit plans in a major speech on Tuesday.

Although the exact contents of the speech are said to be a closely-guarded secret, The Sunday Telegraph quoted a government source as saying: "She's gone for the full works. People will know when she said 'Brexit means Brexit', she really meant it."
There's speculation on the BBC News site as well that she will "signal pulling out of the EU single market and customs union"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38628428 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38628428Lovely)

Lovely. Fingers crossed.
Remoaners won't like it of course, while Brexiteers will feel rather encouraged.

And given the result of the referendum, that's the right way round - isn't it? :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on January 15, 2017, 12:53:45 PM

Theresa May is expected to give the most detailed insight yet into her Brexit plans in a major speech on Tuesday.


I won't be holding my breath for the kind of detail that folk are hoping for....

I get the need to keep her cards close to her chest from a negotiation point of view, butwe need to least spell out our aims. I suspect that it will be :

So called "Hard" Brexit
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on January 15, 2017, 13:01:37 PM
Rumblings of turning the UK into some kind of European tax haven. I really hope that's not the plan.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on January 15, 2017, 13:56:15 PM
Rumblings of turning the UK into some kind of European tax haven. I really hope that's not the plan.
If it puts the Kibosh on Jean-Claude Juncker's Luxembourg then that's a good thing, especially if we're open and above board about it all :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 16, 2017, 02:00:29 AM
Hard Brexit and UK a tax haven then... should have put that message on the bus. If anyone is going abroad soon, they might want to buy some foreign currency before that speech by TM, the pound has tanked enough since last summer
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 16, 2017, 07:09:23 AM
Hard Brexit and UK a tax haven then... should have put that message on the bus. If anyone is going abroad soon, they might want to buy some foreign currency before that speech by TM, the pound has tanked enough since last summer
"We're doomed"   ;D ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 16, 2017, 11:31:59 AM
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21714330-they-dont-make-em-any-more-politicians-cannot-bring-back-old-fashioned-factory-jobs
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 16, 2017, 21:15:08 PM
So after the enlightening phrases  "Brexit means Brexit" and a "Red White and Blue Brexit", what can we expect from tomorrow...


Brexit is as Brexit Does?


Ready Brexit?


A Right Royal Brexit?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on January 16, 2017, 22:17:06 PM
Brexit wrexit.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: zoony on January 17, 2017, 02:40:09 AM
Trump boy is going to give us a trade deal as soon as he gets in the hot seat. Good lad. EU my arse.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 17, 2017, 07:06:33 AM
Trump boy is going to give us a trade deal as soon as he gets in the hot seat. Good lad. EU my arse.


He can't. Not until the UK completes its exit from the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 17, 2017, 07:24:39 AM

He can't. Not until the UK completes its exit from the EU.
'Signature ready' for March 2019 - hopefully.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on January 17, 2017, 07:45:56 AM
Trump boy is going to give us a trade deal as soon as he gets in the hot seat. Good lad. EU my arse.


We already have a trade deal with the USA. Post Trump watch out for imported chlorine dipped chickens, lower standards on just about everything and the 20% increase in the price of imported raw materials should see any UK manufactured goods rendered noncompetitive. I suppose we can be more lapse about the impact of global warming as Trump doesn't see it as a problem.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 17, 2017, 08:04:43 AM
Why would anyone believe Trump ffs, most of what he says is lies?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 17, 2017, 08:17:54 AM

We already have a trade deal with the USA. Post Trump watch out for imported chlorine dipped chickens, lower standards on just about everything and the 20% increase in the price of imported raw materials should see any UK manufactured goods rendered noncompetitive. I suppose we can be more lapse about the impact of global warming as Trump doesn't see it as a problem.
"Always look on the bright side of life"  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 17, 2017, 09:30:37 AM
"Always look on the bright side of life"  ;D


Unfortunately not Eric Idle won't be participating in the inauguration
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 17, 2017, 10:21:40 AM

A few days after Mark Carney's (bullshitter) volte face, I see the IMF (bullshitters) have revised UK growth upwards  from 0.4% to 1.5%
 ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 17, 2017, 12:12:06 PM
Compare this with the assurance, boldly and unambiguously stated before the referendum by members of the government, both then and now, that a successful Leave vote would mean the UK leaving the single market. Now THAT, in contrast, is unambiguously a promise.

And Theresa has just made this very point in her speech! Superb.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 17, 2017, 12:16:57 PM
And Theresa has just made this very point in her speech! Superb.


And to replace it she wants to have her cake and eat it.  We'll see how that works.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 17, 2017, 12:36:18 PM

And to replace it she wants to have her cake and eat it.  We'll see how that works.
Yes and we will also see if the EU are happy to eat a smaller slice of cake.....or not.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 17, 2017, 12:44:14 PM
Looks like Parliament won't be able to frustrate the people's will after all. The Commons will vote on whatever deal is reached, but if it rejects it - we won't be staying in the EU. We'll simply leave the EU with no deal.

Quite encouraged, I must say.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 17, 2017, 12:48:40 PM
Looks like Parliament won't be able to frustrate the people's will after all. The Commons will vote on whatever deal is reached, but if it rejects it - we won't be staying in the EU. We'll simply leave the EU with no deal.

Quite encouraged, I must say.
Yes, deal or no deal, we'll be out of the EU - hurrah!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 17, 2017, 12:55:18 PM
Interestingly the £ climbed a dollar point or two during and immediately following the speech.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 17, 2017, 12:55:56 PM
Sterling up over 2.5% against dollar
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 17, 2017, 13:00:32 PM
Sterling up over 2.5% against dollar


happy with her half in half  out statements on the EU & Customs Union ?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 17, 2017, 14:03:22 PM

happy with her half in half  out statements on the EU & Customs Union ?
In my opinion, she said the right things (at the moment the currency markets agree). We are leaving the EU, the single market and the customs union. During negotiations the government will attempt to secure tariff-free access to the single market and agree a new relationship with regard the customs union. If no agreement along those lines can be agreed, the UK will trade with the EU along WTO lines which will be more punitive for the EU than the UK, in fact, based on current trade, the UK would collect £12.3bn per year and our exporters (to the EU) would pay £6.5bn. In effect UK exporters coulkd be compensated by the UK government to eliminate any extra costs. The EU are between a rock and a hard place.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 17, 2017, 14:19:42 PM
In my opinion, she said the right things (at the moment the currency markets agree). We are leaving the EU, the single market and the customs union. During negotiations the government will attempt to secure tariff-free access to the single market and agree a new relationship with regard the customs union. If no agreement along those lines can be agreed, the UK will trade with the EU along WTO lines which will be more punitive for the EU than the UK, in fact, based on current trade, the UK would collect £12.3bn per year and our exporters (to the EU) would pay £6.5bn. In effect UK exporters coulkd be compensated by the UK government to eliminate any extra costs. The EU are between a rock and a hard place.


I really don't see that.  The EU is so much larger than the UK so the pain will be shared across a much larger population. And who will be paying the 12.3 billion.  UK consumers I would have thought ?


Of course this is not ideal for the EU and it has a major decision to take.  If it gives May the kind of deal she wants then the EU as an organisation is under threat. Other countries will see that the UK is able to benefit from certain aspects of the Single market without having to put up with its difficulties and also benefiting from the free trade within the customs union without having to accept the universal tariffs for countries not part of the customs union. Other EU countries may feel that this kind of deal suits them too.


So is it prepared to suffer a degree of pain financially to preserve the integrity of the EU  or will it decide to give in to all the demands of May and threaten its survival ?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 17, 2017, 14:33:27 PM

I really don't see that.  The EU is so much larger than the UK so the pain will be shared across a much larger population. And who will be paying the 12.3 billion.  UK consumers I would have thought ?


Of course this is not ideal for the EU and it has a major decision to take.  If it gives May the kind of deal she wants then the EU as an organisation is under threat. Other countries will see that the UK is able to benefit from certain aspects of the Single market without having to put up with its difficulties and also benefiting from the free trade within the customs union without having to accept the universal tariffs for countries not part of the customs union. Other EU countries may feel that this kind of deal suits them too.


So is it prepared to suffer a degree of pain financially to preserve the integrity of the EU  or will it decide to give in to all the demands of May and threaten its survival ?
Interesting times, no doubt. I think as time goes by, the EU is increasingly trying to preserve itself against the wishes of a greater number of its citizens, ultimately it will fail or face huge reform. A definite watershed moment (or two years!)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 17, 2017, 14:49:30 PM
Interesting times, no doubt. I think as time goes by, the EU is increasingly trying to preserve itself against the wishes of a greater number of its citizens, ultimately it will fail or face huge reform. A definite watershed moment (or two years!)


Perhaps the UK will be like the canary in the coal mine for the rest of the EU.  Prosper and people may begin to believe that the EU has outserved its usefulness.  Struggle against the major World powers and the constituents of the EU may realise that its strength in numbers and unity is a very positive thing.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 17, 2017, 15:00:51 PM
A few days after Mark Carney's (bullshitter) volte face, I see the IMF (bullshitters) have revised UK growth upwards  from 0.4% to 1.5%
 ;D


The previous prediction was 1.1%, stop making stuff up ;)


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38637243
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 17, 2017, 15:19:20 PM
Sterling up over 2.5% against dollar


good news though the dollar is down against all foreign currencies as the PEOTUS said i'it's overvalued and is killin' us!'


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38650529

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 17, 2017, 15:26:55 PM

The previous prediction was 1.1%, stop making stuff up ;)


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38637243 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38637243)
You're right, I stand corrected. Reported incorrectly - should have been "revised upwards by 0.4% to 1.5%". Theresa's speech has got me over-excited

 ;) 
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 17, 2017, 20:01:28 PM

Yep, much of the standard of debate was really poor from both sides. Dave and Gideon making up £4K losses to each family in their heads post-Brexit, Boris making up numbers about NHS spending, Leave.EU blowing the dog whistle with imaginary armies of foreign-looking men.


On the Leave side I thought Daniel Hannan was highly persuasive concerning new trade opportunities, and on the Remain side Sir Nicholas Soames and Gordon Brown did inspiring videos.


you believed Hannan?


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2YR7qBXgAEoqtt.jpg
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on January 17, 2017, 22:03:04 PM
Wonder if Russia had a hand in the Brexit election results?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 17, 2017, 23:22:56 PM
Well Russia certainly benefits from a divided Europe, no surprise if they did as the outgoing PM claimed.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 17, 2017, 23:28:28 PM
Another one for you...

"The EU helped keep the peace in Europe"

Farage and co: "No, it's NATO"

Trump trashes NATO as obsolete.

Not a peep out of Farage and co.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 17, 2017, 23:38:55 PM
Another one for you...

"The EU helped keep the peace in Europe"

Farage and co: "No, it's NATO"

Trump trashes NATO as obsolete.

Not a peep out of Farage and co.
His work on this earth is done  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 18, 2017, 07:19:46 AM
Keir Starmer. Silly name......silly man.
" No one voted to be poorer". Funny then how most of the Remain side's argument was based around that theory. Knob.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 18, 2017, 10:11:01 AM
Yes, I heard some of Keir's comments yesterday. Both he and the mincing little turd Farron seem to think that the British people voted to leave the EU because we treasure its practices and institutions. Just ridiculous.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 18, 2017, 11:52:31 AM
The President of the European Commission ( or as The Sun might say, that funny little man from Malta with the funny name)-

We want a fair deal for the United Kingdom. But that deal necessarily needs to be inferior to membership.

This should not come as a surprise to anyone. Indeed, thinking it can be otherwise would indicate a detachment from reality.

Yesterday’s statement by my colleague and friend Prime Minister May helps clarify the priorities of the British government during the impending negotiations. Our understanding is that Prime Minister May is prioritising curbs to freedom of movement of people over membership of the single market and the customs union.

She added that she did not want for the UK to replicate something that exists, but the creation of something new.

I would like to confirm to this House today that at this point there is unequivocal unity within [the European] council. This stance does not arise from antagonism but from belief in the core principles of the European project, as stated by the 27 heads of government after the Brexit referendum result which we respect as a sovereign decision.

The freedom of movement of persons, goods, services and capital cannot be decoupled. Put simply, the four freedoms are indivisible.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 18, 2017, 12:17:56 PM

"But that deal necessarily needs to be inferior to membership"
Given the perilous state of the EU, that is a ridiculous statement. What the EU ideologues consider to be benefits, the majority of UK referendum participants consider undesirable.
'Malteaser'  :D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 18, 2017, 12:30:01 PM
The freedom of movement of persons, goods, services and capital cannot be decoupled. Put simply, the four freedoms are indivisible.

Stated with commendable clarity.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 18, 2017, 16:23:26 PM
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/theresa-may-promises-a-glorious-brexit-future-a-1130529.html#ref=nl-international
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 18, 2017, 17:40:25 PM
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/theresa-may-promises-a-glorious-brexit-future-a-1130529.html#ref=nl-international (http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/theresa-may-promises-a-glorious-brexit-future-a-1130529.html#ref=nl-international)
The first few comments below the article are a fine response to this hyperbolic assessment.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 18, 2017, 17:57:20 PM
A bitter and petulant piece that if anything, underlines that we have the upper hand in these negotiations. Contrary to the opinion expressed by the author of this foolish piece, we're in a position of strength. Because we're able to extract the most important requirements - control of our borders, an end to EU influence over our policies and laws and so on - simply by taking them. I do understand (and enjoy) the resentment and frustration of the Little Europeans.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on January 18, 2017, 18:39:02 PM
And so it begins

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38663537
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 18, 2017, 19:41:11 PM
And so it begins

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38663537 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38663537)
'Warnings' - we've had plenty of those
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on January 18, 2017, 20:22:52 PM
And so it begins

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38663537
But everybody hates bankers anyway, GOOD RIDDANCE!!!!!
If indeed it should come to pass.
Other banks may well employ more staff as the City explores new avenues. Who can say.

Just as long as Brexit has been concluded before the Euro tanks.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 18, 2017, 20:39:00 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 18, 2017, 22:53:30 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY)
Some of the editing on that is not that bad, to be fair  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 19, 2017, 00:12:44 AM
Theresa May is utterly clear that the Brexit vote was about immigration- "controlling our borders", above free trade.While she busies herself setting fire to our access to the world's largest free market in order to control EU immigration to Britain, non-EU immigration to Britain outstripped EU immigration in 2016. There's no sign she is taking such drastic action to control immigration from other parts of the world. Maybe they'll pick sprouts for less money in the new leaner, fitter labour market?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Richard_2112 on January 19, 2017, 01:20:23 AM
Theresa May is utterly clear that the Brexit vote was about immigration- "controlling our borders", above free trade.While she busies herself setting fire to our access to the world's largest free market in order to control EU immigration to Britain, non-EU immigration to Britain outstripped EU immigration in 2016. There's no sign she is taking such drastic action to control immigration from other parts of the world. Maybe they'll pick sprouts for less money in the new leaner, fitter labour market?
This is the one that always baffles me about May, and why people think she's a safe pair of hands. Wasn't it her job as Home Secretary to bring those non-EU immigration figures down? Failed pretty spectacularly there I'd say, and now she's going to send those pesky immigrants back, yeah right...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 19, 2017, 09:28:27 AM
This is the one that always baffles me about May, and why people think she's a safe pair of hands. Wasn't it her job as Home Secretary to bring those non-EU immigration figures down? Failed pretty spectacularly there I'd say, and now she's going to send those pesky immigrants back, yeah right...
Exactly right. She talked tough as Home Secretary but achieved little. My theory is that the department purposefully kept non-EU immigration high(er) in an attempt to deflect the criticism away from the free-movement issue (I think it worked,to a point, your comment is evidence of that). Very cynical politics by a pro-remain government department, if that was the case.
I don't believe any immigrants that came legally will be 'sent back'.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 19, 2017, 09:39:31 AM
Theresa May is utterly clear that the Brexit vote was about immigration- "controlling our borders", above free trade.While she busies herself setting fire to our access to the world's largest free market in order to control EU immigration to Britain, non-EU immigration to Britain outstripped EU immigration in 2016. There's no sign she is taking such drastic action to control immigration from other parts of the world. Maybe they'll pick sprouts for less money in the new leaner, fitter labour market?
She, rightfully, acknowledges that controlling immigration was one of the most important issue for many. Like it, or not, most people are not supportive of a system that allows any EU citizen to come to the UK, possibly without chance of employment, to contribute to additional pressure on infrastructure, services, education and housing. Obviously she hopes that access to the single market can be retained but, if not, new trading opportunities can compensate. Undoubtedly this is a massive gamble.
Removing the unfairness of discriminating against non-EU immigrants appears to be a more ethical approach to accommodating those that want to settle in the UK.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 19, 2017, 10:31:04 AM
"Which country in the world is going to enter into a trade agreement with this country on the basis that the rules are entirely what the British say they're going to be, on any particular day, and if there's any dispute about the rules it's going to be sorted out by the British Government?"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-ken-clarker-tory-rebel-former-chancellor-conservative-eu-deal-negotiations-a7531801.html?utm_content=buffer62810&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 19, 2017, 10:37:24 AM
"Which country in the world is going to enter into a trade agreement with this country on the basis that the rules are entirely what the British say they're going to be, on any particular day, and if there's any dispute about the rules it's going to be sorted out by the British Government?"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-ken-clarker-tory-rebel-former-chancellor-conservative-eu-deal-negotiations-a7531801.html?utm_content=buffer62810&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-ken-clarker-tory-rebel-former-chancellor-conservative-eu-deal-negotiations-a7531801.html?utm_content=buffer62810&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)
If ever there was an intervention that shows what a terribly sore, old loser Ken is. We are leaving the EU and his twilight years have been destroyed - shame.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 19, 2017, 12:21:28 PM
Theresa May is utterly clear that the Brexit vote was about immigration- "controlling our borders", above free trade.While she busies herself setting fire to our access to the world's largest free market in order to control EU immigration to Britain

The referendum voters have done that. There's no sense in criticising the current government for following through on its promise to deliver on the referendum result.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 19, 2017, 15:04:59 PM
OUCH !


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-britain-india-trade-deal-freedom-of-movement-delhi-boris-johnson-a7534026.html?cmpid=facebook-post
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 19, 2017, 16:44:51 PM
Since 2004, European law has allowed governments to control movements of EU citizens as follows; allow EU citizens to freely circulate for only three months and then require them (should they wish to stay longer) to show they are working (either employed of self employed), a registered student, or have sufficient resources (either pension or savings) to support themselves and comprehensive medical insurance. The UK is one of the few governments not to have implemented this.

For six years TM was in charge of the home office responsible for these regulations pertaining to immigration and failed to implement them.

Make your own mind up about quite May failed to do so and why the Brexit crew constantly lied about there being "uncontrolled immigration" when it was solely due to a conscious action by May herself not to limit it within the laws provided by the EU.

The answer is of course, these people were allowed in to drive down indigenous wages and provide the whinging right wing of the party with a stick to beat the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 19, 2017, 16:55:41 PM
Wilful neglect from the sounds of it.  Shame the remain camp didn't make more of it when it mattered.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on January 19, 2017, 20:16:28 PM
The answer is of course, these people were allowed in to drive down indigenous wages and provide the whinging right wing of the party with a stick to beat the EU.
What absolute Tommy Rot. The whinging right of the Conservative party don't need any reason to find a stick to beat the EU.

We should have stuck to the Churchillian principle of "With Europe, not part of Europe". We'll always be there for European trade and to help out if necessary when various subsets of Europeans get a bit fractious and uppity, but Britain has a long history of looking out to the world, indeed Britain ahs a long history of being Britain whereas lots of these European states are relatively recent constructs and could more easily be moulded into a new state.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 19, 2017, 20:17:55 PM
Since 2004, European law has allowed governments to control movements of EU citizens as follows; allow EU citizens to freely circulate for only three months and then require them (should they wish to stay longer) to show they are working (either employed of self employed), a registered student, or have sufficient resources (either pension or savings) to support themselves and comprehensive medical insurance. The UK is one of the few governments not to have implemented this.

For six years TM was in charge of the home office responsible for these regulations pertaining to immigration and failed to implement them.

Make your own mind up about quite May failed to do so and why the Brexit crew constantly lied about there being "uncontrolled immigration" when it was solely due to a conscious action by May herself not to limit it within the laws provided by the EU.

The answer is of course, these people were allowed in to drive down indigenous wages and provide the whinging right wing of the party with a stick to beat the EU.
But would implementation of this process have made much difference? The majority of EU migrants are in (low paid) work. The fact is that big business has become addicted to cheap labour (along with the government).
I don't see why May, (supposedly) a Remainer, would try to placate the Eurosceptics within her party, as you suggest. The idea that the Home Office could implement such checks is laughable - due to lack of resources and incompetence. Just as laughable is the notion that any other EU country tracks immigrants in this way.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 19, 2017, 20:19:50 PM
OUCH !


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-britain-india-trade-deal-freedom-of-movement-delhi-boris-johnson-a7534026.html?cmpid=facebook-post (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-britain-india-trade-deal-freedom-of-movement-delhi-boris-johnson-a7534026.html?cmpid=facebook-post)
This appears to describe an element of a 'trade negotiation'
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 19, 2017, 20:25:17 PM
This appears to describe an element of a 'trade negotiation'


A pretty ironic one, I would suggest!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 19, 2017, 20:27:30 PM

A pretty ironic one, I would suggest!
I'll give you that  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 20, 2017, 09:40:01 AM
Just as laughable is the notion that any other EU country tracks immigrants in this way.


Do you know this, my experience is that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium certainly seem to?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 20, 2017, 10:40:54 AM

Do you know this, my experience is that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium certainly seem to?
Well they seem to allow Jihadis to come and go as they please
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on January 20, 2017, 18:28:57 PM
So Trump's "Hire  American, buy American " seems at odds with a meaningful trade deal. Trump will do all he can to create US jobs, which by default is a protectionist position. Ah well thankfully we have the European market to rely on...oh wait.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 20, 2017, 19:03:58 PM
Further humiliation for Greece as the EU commission's demand for a fire sale of Greek assets results in its national rail operator being sold to........the Italian government.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 21, 2017, 10:53:17 AM
Well they seem to allow Jihadis to come and go as they please


generally poor security/intel of locals who became radicalised sadly
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 21, 2017, 11:43:02 AM

generally poor security/intel of locals who became radicalised sadly
apart from those who purposefully exploited the Syrian refugee crisis and Schengen to bring slaughter to Europe, under the noses of European authorities.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 21, 2017, 11:51:07 AM
which incidents do you refer to?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 21, 2017, 11:51:25 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/20/opinion/theresa-mays-global-britain-is-baloney.html
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on January 21, 2017, 14:03:09 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/20/opinion/theresa-mays-global-britain-is-baloney.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/20/opinion/theresa-mays-global-britain-is-baloney.html)

Excellent piece
"The vote for Brexit was in fact the moment Britain turned its back (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/28/opinion/britain-to-leave-europe-for-a-lie.html) on the world, succumbing to pettiness, anti-immigrant bigotry, lying politicians, self-delusion and vapid promises of restored glory.
“Global Britain” is a specious branding effort designed to mask an expensive mistake, opposed by 48 percent of voters."
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 21, 2017, 17:05:02 PM
Excellent piece
"The vote for Brexit was in fact the moment Britain turned its back (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/28/opinion/britain-to-leave-europe-for-a-lie.html) on the world, succumbing to pettiness, anti-immigrant bigotry, lying politicians, self-delusion and vapid promises of restored glory.
“Global Britain” is a specious branding effort designed to mask an expensive mistake, opposed by 48 percent of voters."
Remoaning
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on January 21, 2017, 21:29:38 PM
Excellent piece
"The vote for Brexit was in fact the moment Britain turned its back (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/28/opinion/britain-to-leave-europe-for-a-lie.html) on the world, succumbing to pettiness, anti-immigrant bigotry, lying politicians, self-delusion and vapid promises of restored glory.
“Global Britain” is a specious branding effort designed to mask an expensive mistake, opposed by 48 percent of voters."
tl;dr

It hasn't turned its back on the world. Any fule kno that. It just doesn't want to belong to a Euro "Project" within a world which is radically different to when the Euro "Project" was set in motion. It's like some sort of Hari Seldon foundation which is set on making things worse rather than better.
As for lying politicians: How do you know if a Politician is lying? His lips move.
If Britain has turned its back on the world how come the Crims and the Kiwis are wanting to get more involved with us? That can only be a good thing, their wine is better than the French and if we can get it more cheaply then win, win!

And finally Cyril, what bit of "Democracy" don't the 48% understand?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on January 21, 2017, 23:09:18 PM
Then again the Crims want more freedom of movement for stubby swilling Ockers to come over here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38704325

Of course, we should ask for the same so that all the Bremoaners who said they would leave the country if their was a Brexit vote can get safe passage out of it.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 21, 2017, 23:53:16 PM
Excellent piece
"The vote for Brexit was in fact the moment Britain turned its back (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/28/opinion/britain-to-leave-europe-for-a-lie.html) on the world, succumbing to pettiness, anti-immigrant bigotry, lying politicians, self-delusion and vapid promises of restored glory.
“Global Britain” is a specious branding effort designed to mask an expensive mistake, opposed by 48 percent of voters."

Laughable.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on January 22, 2017, 16:06:23 PM
tl;dr

It hasn't turned its back on the world. Any fule kno that. It just doesn't want to belong to a Euro "Project" within a world which is radically different to when the Euro "Project" was set in motion. It's like some sort of Hari Seldon foundation which is set on making things worse rather than better.
As for lying politicians: How do you know if a Politician is lying? His lips move.
If Britain has turned its back on the world how come the Crims and the Kiwis are wanting to get more involved with us? That can only be a good thing, their wine is better than the French and if we can get it more cheaply then win, win!

And finally Cyril, what bit of "Democracy" don't the 48% understand?

Hmm, as Clegg said on BBC this morning, doubling of our trade with the Anglosphere (USA, Canada, Caribbean, AUS, NZ, India) will not offset our losses in trade with the EU.  We have to do better than that.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 22, 2017, 17:19:20 PM
Hmm, as Clegg said on BBC this morning, doubling of our trade with the Anglosphere (USA, Canada, Caribbean, AUS, NZ, India) will not offset our losses in trade with the EU.  We have to do better than that.
Clegg
(( ;D ))
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on January 22, 2017, 18:23:56 PM
Hmm, as Clegg said on BBC this morning, doubling of our trade with the Anglosphere (USA, Canada, Caribbean, AUS, NZ, India) will not offset our losses in trade with the EU.  We have to do better than that.


All this theoretical new trade outside the EU involves huge extra shipping costs air/sea, plus customs clearance etc, compared with sending a van through the tunnel. All this comes at a competitive cost, it's amazing people can't see the wood for the trees.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 22, 2017, 18:38:23 PM
I wonder how we ever survived before we joined the EU in 1973. I suppose we lived in caves and ate grass and berries.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on January 22, 2017, 19:05:12 PM
I wonder how we ever survived before we joined the EU in 1973. I suppose we lived in caves and ate grass and berries.


The world has moved on a tad since 73, China wasn't even on the radar back then as a manufacturing force. Surely you cannot be looking back into history in an attempt to see how trade in the future may play out, what next, trading Etruscan vases?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 22, 2017, 20:08:29 PM
I am starting to see a glimmer of a plan here. I'm not sure whether it is a mirage, born of wishful thinking on my part, or whether TM et al actually do have a cunning plan. At the moment, I suspect the former, but hope for the latter.

The plan being that, as has been said many times, a hard Brexit would likely be bad for the UK, but arguably worse for the EU. So by taking what the EU has been saying about the single market being non-negotiable and turning this into 'Brexit means hard Brexit' TM is effectively saying 'This will hurt us, but it will hurt you more'. There are fault lines across the EU at the moment, and the prospect of further damage in consequence of Brexit (any Brexit) may cause those fault lines to open further, so that the EU is forced into a recognition that the only way to keep it together is some fundamental reform.

It does seem to me that the only way the EU will ever acknowledge the need for that reform is when it can no longer deny it. So this plan, such as it is, might be the way to bring it about. If so, and faced with a genuinely reforming EU and the inevitable harm from a hard Brexit, there could conceivably be a sound political rationale for not proceeding with Brexit after all. ::)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on January 22, 2017, 20:27:47 PM
Let's hope that's the plan.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on January 22, 2017, 21:45:14 PM
There's no plan :)

Apart from the one hatched by the Eurocrats to hasten the exit of the UK from the EU as we were the biggest handbrake on increased federalisation. Cunning lot these Eurocrats....
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on January 22, 2017, 22:15:40 PM

All this theoretical new trade outside the EU involves huge extra shipping costs air/sea, plus customs clearance etc, compared with sending a van through the tunnel. All this comes at a competitive cost, it's amazing people can't see the wood for the trees.


One benefit is that the docks on the Mersey and the Tyne will open up again, generating more jobs and maybe we will even build ships. 


But break of bulk costs will still be there, as you say.  Easier to sell to the continent we are part of, than others oceans away.


We have to do something about the passporting issue, else the merchant bankers will up sticks and head to Paris.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on January 22, 2017, 22:23:56 PM
The only thing we are likely to be shipping back is empty containers to China.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 23, 2017, 09:59:38 AM
I am starting to see a glimmer of a plan here. I'm not sure whether it is a mirage, born of wishful thinking on my part, or whether TM et al actually do have a cunning plan. At the moment, I suspect the former, but hope for the latter.

The plan being that, as has been said many times, a hard Brexit would likely be bad for the UK, but arguably worse for the EU. So by taking what the EU has been saying about the single market being non-negotiable and turning this into 'Brexit means hard Brexit' TM is effectively saying 'This will hurt us, but it will hurt you more'. There are fault lines across the EU at the moment, and the prospect of further damage in consequence of Brexit (any Brexit) may cause those fault lines to open further, so that the EU is forced into a recognition that the only way to keep it together is some fundamental reform.

It does seem to me that the only way the EU will ever acknowledge the need for that reform is when it can no longer deny it. So this plan, such as it is, might be the way to bring it about. If so, and faced with a genuinely reforming EU and the inevitable harm from a hard Brexit, there could conceivably be a sound political rationale for not proceeding with Brexit after all. ::)

This flight of fancy rests on the assumptions that a "hard" (ie clean, normal) Brexit is probably bad for the UK and further that the government would be prepared to defy the people's will, despite having giving assurances that it won't. Sounds like a fun plot for an intriguing political novel, but a non-starter in real life.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 23, 2017, 23:11:52 PM

The world has moved on a tad since 73, China wasn't even on the radar back then as a manufacturing force. Surely you cannot be looking back into history in an attempt to see how trade in the future may play out, what next, trading Etruscan vases?

And yet - somehow most of the world's countries sustain themselves without either being a member of the EU, or trading predominantly in Etruscan vases. Puzzling.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 24, 2017, 07:16:01 AM
And yet - somehow most of the world's countries sustain themselves without either being a member of the EU, or trading predominantly in Etruscan vases. Puzzling.


In general though countries realise how interdependent they are on each other and the general rule is to reduce barriers to trade. This looks like it is being reversed by Brexit and the mad man in the White House. Neither is good news for the World economy.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on January 24, 2017, 07:26:57 AM

The world has moved on a tad since 73, China wasn't even on the radar back then as a manufacturing force.

India too.  Also, pre-1973 we made a lot more manufactured goods than we do now.  We rely heavily on the City.  My feeling is that we should be in a big bloc for protection against these emergent economies.  We are still good at making things like tractors and advanced weapons so perhaps the Government should subsidise these industries, giving them a chance to expand to meet what we hope will be demand from thoutside the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on January 24, 2017, 08:05:31 AM
And yet - somehow most of the world's countries sustain themselves without either being a member of the EU, or trading predominantly in Etruscan vases. Puzzling.

Don't forget many of these countries also exist in trade blocs, ie Mercosor, NAFTA, EFTA, Caricom, etc etc, there are many differing types but all assist with trade between members. Countries as large as China is almost a trade block by default. So there are very few Countries that exist outside of trade blocs.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 24, 2017, 10:13:10 AM
Tweet from @Law_and_policy


"Parliament and independent judiciary 1 Government by prerogative 0


(May own goal) "


 ;D







Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on January 24, 2017, 12:20:35 PM
To be honest although I didn't vote to leave I just wish we could get on with it now as quickly as possible - the public voted for it so don't really see what more needs to be debated, we certainly don't want to be showing our negotiating hand in public and the quicker we can start the process the better. More time and money wasted now, just what we didn't want.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 24, 2017, 12:31:38 PM
To be honest although I didn't vote to leave I just wish we could get on with it now as quickly as possible - the public voted for it so don't really see what more needs to be debated, we certainly don't want to be showing our negotiating hand in public and the quicker we can start the process the better. More time and money wasted now, just what we didn't want.


agree, the last 3 months going to the supreme court was a complete waste of time and money
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on January 24, 2017, 12:33:37 PM
To be honest although I didn't vote to leave I just wish we could get on with it now as quickly as possible - the public voted for it so don't really see what more needs to be debated, we certainly don't want to be showing our negotiating hand in public and the quicker we can start the process the better. More time and money wasted now, just what we didn't want.


Sums up my position.


Voted Remain on balance, the country voted Leave, so fair play; let's expend our collective energy on moving forward with it rather than wasting it on pointless, bitter-and-twisted Leave-buttery (I'm looking at you, Cleggie).
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 24, 2017, 13:05:32 PM
shame to be throwing this away, I still think that history will show it to be a huge mistake


Quote
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is.  A single market without barriers - visible or invisible - giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the World's wealthiest and most prosperous people.


Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States.  On your doorstep.  And with the Channel Tunnel to give you direct access to it.


It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."


Not the words of Nick Clegg.  Not even Ken Clarke.  That was Margaret Thatcher
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 24, 2017, 14:47:10 PM
shame to be throwing this away, I still think that history will show it to be a huge mistake



Not the words of Nick Clegg.  Not even Ken Clarke.  That was Margaret Thatcher
Such a shame they didn't just leave it at that, isn't it?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 24, 2017, 15:09:51 PM
Such a shame they didn't just leave it at that, isn't it?


Perhaps, but I think the UK was one of the main countries pushing for the expansion of the EU (until 2013 I believe)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 24, 2017, 15:48:55 PM

Perhaps, but I think the UK was one of the main countries pushing for the expansion of the EU (until 2013 I believe)
And for the expansion of the disastrous single currency, Schengen zone, common taxation policy or EU defence force?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 24, 2017, 15:58:07 PM
And for the expansion of the disastrous single currency, Schengen zone, common taxation policy or EU defence force?


The vast majority of which the UK had managed to negotiate its way out of.  See also EU rebate.  It did very well in getting the relationship with the EU it wanted when a member.
I can't imagine the EU will be anything like as accommodating, dealing with an ex-member.




[/size][/font]
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on January 24, 2017, 18:01:57 PM

agree, the last 3 months going to the supreme court was a complete waste of time and money

Yep.  All so that Parliament gets to vote on what is a foregone conclusion anyway.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on January 24, 2017, 20:14:04 PM
Don't forget many of these countries also exist in trade blocs, ie Mercosor, NAFTA, EFTA, Caricom, etc etc, there are many differing types but all assist with trade between members. Countries as large as China is almost a trade block by default. So there are very few Countries that exist outside of trade blocs.
But they aren't moving towards being a Federal entity are they?
You can have free trade without the need to be a single political entity, that is the ultimate aim of the EU and that is what the British do not want.
Therefore the EU should realise that they can still give us Free Trade in goods, services and capital - but not labour - and the job will be a good 'un. Simples.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 24, 2017, 20:20:14 PM
Yep.  All so that Parliament gets to vote on what is a foregone conclusion anyway.
It was worth it though, if only to see 'Janette Krankie' put back in her box. Fan-Dabi-Dozi
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on January 25, 2017, 09:42:51 AM

Sums up my position.


Voted Remain on balance, the country voted Leave, so fair play; let's expend our collective energy on moving forward with it .....

Yep, me too....
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 25, 2017, 13:31:28 PM
I don't see the appeal to the Supreme Court as a waste of time, I think that was a principle worth fighting for and frankly the precept that's been used to uphold the High Court decision looks rather creative to me. And at least the devolved administrations have had a definitive answer as to their own relevance to the proceedings.

There seems to be a prevailing view even among many who voted to remain that the opposition parties and judiciary are simply trying to frustrate the referendum result because they didn't like it. To be fair I think the SNP would probably admit that quite openly.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on January 25, 2017, 15:23:34 PM
There seems to be a prevailing view even among many who voted to remain that the opposition parties and judiciary are simply trying to frustrate the referendum result because they didn't like it.


I definitely get that impression.  Particularly from Gina Virtue-Signaller Miller who insists her campaign was purely about the legalities; aye, pull the other one.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 25, 2017, 15:38:12 PM
One positive from the referral to the Supreme Court is that it has reinforced the view that the legal system is fiercely independent and not swayed by politicians or the best efforts of some areas of the media.  Fair play !
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on January 25, 2017, 16:15:17 PM
Agreed on that score, dom.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 25, 2017, 17:05:09 PM
But where's the value of independence, without impartiality? It just means free rein to operate according to its own self-interest and bias. See also: British Broadcasting Corporation
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 25, 2017, 18:36:36 PM
But where's the value of independence, without impartiality? It just means free rein to operate according to its own self-interest and bias. See also: British Broadcasting Corporation


Yes I'm aware of your views on the best broadcasting company in the World (in my knowledge anyway) but what leads you to believe the judiciary is not impartial?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 25, 2017, 19:23:47 PM
The events of the last few weeks. I don't know which broadcasting organisation is the best in the world, but it's unlikely that I've expressed a view on it. I expect it's News Corp.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on January 26, 2017, 07:40:25 AM
But where's the value of independence, without impartiality? It just means free rein to operate according to its own self-interest and bias. See also: British Broadcasting Corporation

Some of their attacks on Corbyn look like Fox News tactics, or spoof news like The Day Today. 

Not that I care, given that the nation needs an effective Opposition and ridiculing him will accellerate bring that closer, hopefully.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 26, 2017, 09:32:00 AM
Absolutely - the BBC serving its own agenda is never more evident than when it goes after Corbyn. It campaigned fairly vigorously against Scottish independence, as well.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on January 26, 2017, 16:27:26 PM
Absolutely - the BBC serving its own agenda is never more evident than when it goes after Corbyn. It campaigned fairly vigorously against Scottish independence, as well.

A lot of leftists say it is a Tory mouthpiece. Curiously, they have no such concern about RT.

I think it toes the establishment line, by-and-large, but is susceptible to Government pressure whatever the Government. 
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 26, 2017, 16:53:54 PM
Absolutely - the BBC serving its own agenda is never more evident than when it goes after Corbyn. It campaigned fairly vigorously against Scottish independence, as well.


I would say that was down to the individual whether its the reporter or producer rather than a strategic BBC approach.  We all have our inbuilt bias and they are pretty tough to overcome.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 26, 2017, 18:53:40 PM
Corbyn has decreed that a three-line whip will be in place for the Article 50 vote. But why would the PLP respect that? More of an opportunity for (most of) them if they defy it, isn't it?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 26, 2017, 19:49:55 PM
Who was it that said they'd enjoy watching the Tories tearing themselves apart over leaving the EU?

 ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on January 26, 2017, 20:30:41 PM
I cannot think why Labour MPs would respect the whip. Tulip Siddiq resigned from the front bench today. Her marginal seat at Hampstead and Kilburn is pro-Remain. I think some MPs are threatening to leave the Party.


The word I am getting is that the Tories are very good at showing a united front but that a minor rebellion is expected over A50. Anna Soubry and Sir Nick Soames spring to mind.  Lots of Tories are in Remain constituencies, after all.


The Grauniad reckons that fifteen Tories will side with sixty Labour rebels, the nine Lib Dems, the one Green and the sixty SNP MPs. So that means A50 wil be carried roughly 500-150.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on January 27, 2017, 08:18:08 AM
As someone who often defied his own Party Leaders back in the day , Corbyn is a bit of a hypocrite issuing the whip surely?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 27, 2017, 09:28:12 AM
As someone who often defied his own Party Leaders back in the day , Corbyn is a bit of a hypocrite issuing the whip surely?


exactly I wonder how he justifies that to himself.  Perhaps in this Orwellian age he uses Doublespeak?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on January 27, 2017, 09:34:02 AM

exactly I wonder how he justifies that to himself.  Perhaps in this Orwellian age he uses Doublespeak?

He's porbably not expecting them to obey him / the whip, which no doubt suits his "real" views about Brexit... ::)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on January 27, 2017, 10:40:15 AM
Channel 5 news last night - reporting from Basingstoke on Brexit. Basingstoke voted 48 / 52 and they were after views from 'typical' voters. They spoke to Janet and Brenda (not sure which was which), both leave voters:

Interviewer: "What do you hope for?"

Janet / Brenda: "How it used to be I don’t know how many years ago. You didn’t used to wait 4 weeks for a for Doctor's appointment. It's controlled by Brussels - now you can’t have mushy peas and you can’t have all sorts of things."

Interviewer: "Do you think Brexit will make it how it used to be?"

Janet / Brenda: "No, probably not."

End of interview.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 30, 2017, 12:15:47 PM
Very good article in today's FT


https://www.ft.com/content/fde7616a-e6cf-11e6-967b-c88452263daf?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fcomment%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct (https://www.ft.com/content/fde7616a-e6cf-11e6-967b-c88452263daf?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fcomment%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct)



Britain cannot look to the US for support after its divorce from the EU

Here's a snippet...



Britain could defend free-trade far more effectively with the EU’s bulk behind it — and could also start to explore the possibilities for more EU defence co-operation. As it is, Britain has been thrown into the arms of an American president that the UK’s foreign secretary has called a madman
In the declining years of the British empire, some of its politicians flattered themselves that they could be “Greeks to their Romans” — providing wise and experienced counsel to the new American imperium.
But the Emperor Nero has now taken power in Washington — and the British are having to smile and clap as he sets fires and reaches for his fiddle.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on January 31, 2017, 15:12:08 PM
Fabulous speech by Ken Clarke.  Brexiteers off to their tea party with Alice in Wonderland


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4176242/Europhile-Ken-Clarke-brands-Tories-anti-immigrant.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK


Or perhaps he's branding the Conservative party anti-immigrant to get the UKIPers on board?




Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on January 31, 2017, 19:31:58 PM
I love Ken Clarke.  His book is a super read.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on January 31, 2017, 22:00:41 PM
Fabulous speech by Ken Clarke.  Brexiteers off to their tea party with Alice in Wonderland


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4176242/Europhile-Ken-Clarke-brands-Tories-anti-immigrant.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4176242/Europhile-Ken-Clarke-brands-Tories-anti-immigrant.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK)


Or perhaps he's branding the Conservative party anti-immigrant to get the UKIPers on board?
So Ken does not believe in referenda? Therefore he does not care for the opinion of the population on important subjects on which referenda are held. Mind-boggling conceit on his part. I think Ken's 'wonderland' would be one where he is the king imposing his will on all his subjects. He has enough contempt for democracy to be more at home with the Lib 'Dems' - certainly no Tory.
Bitter old drunk.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on January 31, 2017, 22:44:21 PM
So Ken does not believe in referenda? Therefore he does not care for the opinion of the population on important subjects on which referenda are held. Mind-boggling conceit on his part. I think Ken's 'wonderland' would be one where he is the king imposing his will on all his subjects. He has enough contempt for democracy to be more at home with the Lib 'Dems' - certainly no Tory.
Bitter old drunk.


I often wonder why he is not a Liberal. I suppose his mates are all Tories.  I think he would have at least taken a lump out of Blair's majorities had he been leader instead of Hague and IDS.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on January 31, 2017, 23:28:22 PM
So Ken does not believe in referenda? Therefore he does not care for the opinion of the population on important subjects on which referenda are held. Mind-boggling conceit on his part. I think Ken's 'wonderland' would be one where he is the king imposing his will on all his subjects. He has enough contempt for democracy to be more at home with the Lib 'Dems' - certainly no Tory.
Bitter old drunk.

I actually share Ken's distrust for government by referenda to a degree. But for an issue as important, as fundamental as this - the question of who governs you - when more than half of those who were prepared to express an opinion on the subject reject the legitimacy of those who would make laws that bind them, then there can be no case for government nor parliament to overrule the people.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 01, 2017, 07:29:39 AM
I love Ken Clarke.  His book is a super read.
The trouble with Ken is he has very strong opinions and is obviously very principled - problem is, like his insistence that we join the euro, he has been proved wrong on many occasions. To suggest that we would now be in a better position if we had joined the single currency, really is 'Alice in Wonderland' economics.
I don't think he's ever got over being passed over for the top job. Now his dream of the UK being part of a federal Europe is slipping away, his bitterness is coming to the fore. His behaviour is reminiscent of a petulant child who hasn't got his own way. Very embarassing behaviour from the old fool.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 01, 2017, 10:31:30 AM
Danish pharma firm Novo Nordisk to invest £115m over 10 years in a diabetes research centre in Oxford.
Lobby group TheCityUK, who represent the financial sector, have reassessed their opposition to Brexit. They now say the break from the EU represents an"unprecedented opportunity" for the country. The group admitted that the EU had been a "straitjacket" on British trade beyond Europe -"TheCityUK is a strong believer in the potential opportunities that the UK's departure from the EU will offer".
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 01, 2017, 14:47:38 PM
Listening to Tulip Siddiq speaking in the Commons now, explaining that she's openly hostile to the British people because most of her constituents are (albeit not in so many words).
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 01, 2017, 15:46:47 PM
Listening to Tulip Siddiq speaking in the Commons now, explaining that she's openly hostile to the British people because most of her constituents are (albeit not in so many words).
The sad thing is that it's not shocking.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 01, 2017, 18:25:58 PM
Danish pharma firm Novo Nordisk to invest £115m over 10 years in a diabetes research centre in Oxford.
Lobby group TheCityUK, who represent the financial sector, have reassessed their opposition to Brexit. They now say the break from the EU represents an"unprecedented opportunity" for the country. The group admitted that the EU had been a "straitjacket" on British trade beyond Europe -"TheCityUK is a strong believer in the potential opportunities that the UK's departure from the EU will offer".


Pretty sure that investment was coming to the UK well before the referendum in truth?


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/novo-nordisk-unveils-115m-uk-pharma-investment-but-brexit-is-still-destroying-jobs-a7553031.html
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 01, 2017, 18:47:55 PM

Pretty sure that investment was coming to the UK well before the referendum in truth?


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/novo-nordisk-unveils-115m-uk-pharma-investment-but-brexit-is-still-destroying-jobs-a7553031.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/novo-nordisk-unveils-115m-uk-pharma-investment-but-brexit-is-still-destroying-jobs-a7553031.html)
So the angle for the future from Remoaners such as this is "think of how many more jobs would have been created if there was no Brexit"
Quelle surprise  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 01, 2017, 18:49:43 PM
Two more Labour front-benchers gone over Article 50
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 01, 2017, 20:37:52 PM
Well that turned out by far to be the easiest part of the process for May. As an added bonus it divided the main opposition even further.

Many much trickier days ahead. Any chance Labour can get it together and make it even tougher. I very much doubt it.




Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 01, 2017, 21:16:56 PM
Listening today to some of the SNP members' contributions, if I can dignify what they said with the term, I can't help thinking it's only a matter of time before the rest of the UK holds a referendum to get shot of Scotland whether they want to stay or not.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 02, 2017, 15:37:36 PM
The BoE have raised their growth forecast for the UK then
 ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on February 03, 2017, 07:53:41 AM
The BoE have raised their growth forecast for the UK then
 ;D

Once again, your ability to select only the parts of an announcement that support your views is matched only by your short-sightedness.... :P
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 03, 2017, 08:25:19 AM
Once again, your ability to select only the parts of an announcement that support your views is matched only by your short-sightedness.... :P
Tell me the parts of the BoE announcement that tell me that they were not woefully wrong in their initial, scaremongering, prediction. Most commentators considered that fact to be the headline - put simply, they were wrong....by a large margin.
Nothing wrong with my eyesight either......'Brexit watch' is the thread.  :P
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on February 03, 2017, 08:32:22 AM
Tell me the parts of the BoE announcement that tell me that they were not woefully wrong in their initial, scaremongering, prediction. Most commentators considered that fact to be the headline - put simply, they were wrong....by a large margin.
Nothing wrong with my eyesight either......'Brexit watch' is the thread.  :P

You chose to not mention the warnings around increasing inflation....
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on February 03, 2017, 08:33:18 AM
Does anyone else think that Diane Abbot was really ill for the vote on Wednesday, or that she "bottled it" and didn't want to vote against Jezza   ::)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on February 03, 2017, 08:41:48 AM
Bottled it for sure.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 03, 2017, 10:14:39 AM
You chose to not mention the warnings around increasing inflation....
That could be bullshit too
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 03, 2017, 10:37:58 AM
That could be bullshit too


That the fall in the value of the £ will cause the price of imports to rise?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 03, 2017, 14:25:32 PM

That the fall in the value of the £ will cause the price of imports to rise?
The pound may recover - Carney and his cronies clearly have no idea what's going to happen in the future.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 03, 2017, 20:35:38 PM
I'm posting this in here as it is more relevant but it refers to a discussion with Slim in the Corbyn thread....




http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017


One rule for the brexiteers and another for the remainers ?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on February 05, 2017, 21:06:04 PM
Listening to Tulip Siddiq speaking in the Commons now, explaining that she's openly hostile to the British people because most of her constituents are (albeit not in so many words).

Ah yes, Tulip Siddiq.  Douglas Murray has a well-deserved award for her. (http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/pick-pious-political-hypocrite-week-award/)  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 06, 2017, 14:13:06 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034)



The BBC has obtained a more localised breakdown of votes from nearly half of the local authorities which counted EU referendum ballots last June.
This information provides much greater depth and detail in explaining the pattern of how the UK voted.
The key findings are:
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on February 06, 2017, 15:34:33 PM
Thanks Neil ....much as I expected...poor, white, ignorant people, both young and old predominantly voted to leave....typical little Englanders.....the type of voter easily swayed by the Right wing Tory media and that ('ere look Sid, 'es smoking and drinking a pint again...'e seems like a) good bloke Nige Farridge



Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on February 06, 2017, 16:33:45 PM
Having said that, I know that some Unions were urging their members to vote leave


I wonder how many people voted against their instinct to leave for the sake of the common good?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 06, 2017, 17:47:31 PM
Interesting listen if you have 20 mins

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04qkdl3
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on February 06, 2017, 21:48:50 PM
I wonder how many people voted against their instinct to leave for the sake of the common good?
I wonder how many people voted against their instinct to remain for the sake of the common good?

I wonder how many who voted to remain are the poncey, wish-washy, liberal left, who flutter their hands in front of their faces now that they can't be European?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on February 06, 2017, 23:44:51 PM
I wonder how many people voted against their instinct to remain for the sake of the common good?


Nah, you dont!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on February 07, 2017, 09:05:00 AM

Nah, you dont!
Yes I do :)


You don't know what's going off inside my head, and it wouldn't help you in the slightest if you did...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 07, 2017, 11:07:43 AM
Accountants PwC predict that the UK will have the fastest growing economy among the G7 nations until 2050. Annual average growth predicted at 1.9% - that would be good, would it not?
We know about predictions though, don't we?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 07, 2017, 11:14:45 AM
Accountants PwC predict that the UK will have the fastest growing economy among the G7 nations until 2050. Annual average growth predicted at 1.9% - that would be good, would it not?
We know about predictions though, don't we?

Do they have a prediction of how that would compare if the UK had stayed in the EU till 2050?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 07, 2017, 14:03:50 PM

Do they have a prediction of how that would compare if the UK had stayed in the EU till 2050?
I think they were predicting that there would be no such thing in 2050  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 07, 2017, 14:13:20 PM
I think they were predicting that there would be no such thing in 2050  ;)
oh PWC of little faith
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on February 08, 2017, 17:49:58 PM
I wonder how many people voted against their instinct to remain for the sake of the common good?

I wonder how many who voted to remain are the poncey, wish-washy, liberal left, who flutter their hands in front of their faces now that they can't be European?

An oxymoron.  Liberals are individualistic, the left authoritarian.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on February 08, 2017, 21:48:53 PM
An oxymoron.  Liberals are individualistic, the left authoritarian.
But the people who pass themselves as being Liberal today aren't individualistic, they only identify with their own fellow travellers and they're all well to the left of my moderate self. Ergo my original comment stands.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Moving Target on February 10, 2017, 18:24:15 PM
But the people who pass themselves as being Liberal today aren't individualistic, they only identify with their own fellow travellers and they're all well to the left of my moderate self. Ergo my original comment stands.


Well, you could say that about Labourites and Tories too - birds of a feather flock together except Ken Clarke.


I mean that Liberals in the classic sense are about free trade, individual rights and small government. They might be to the left of you socially but not economically.  Lefties are more about groupthink and centralised stateism.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 10, 2017, 18:41:38 PM
Just watched BBC2's 'After Brexit: The Battle For Europe' (shown last night). Presenter Katya Adler appears to be a eurosceptic but provides a reasoned argument why the end may be near for the EU.
There is an interaction between herself and an EU office employee when she is trying to find Guy Verhofstadt's office which sums up the EU itself perfectly (when he is found, he spouts the usual nonsense, of course)
It's a must see for anyone with an interest in the subject.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 10, 2017, 21:36:10 PM
Just watched BBC2's 'After Brexit: The Battle For Europe' (shown last night). Presenter Katya Adler appears to be a eurosceptic but provides a reasoned argument why the end may be near for the EU.
There is an interaction between herself and an EU office employee when she is trying to find Guy Verhofstadt's office which sums up the EU itself perfectly (when he is found, he spouts the usual nonsense, of course)
It's a must see for anyone with an interest in the subject.


Watched it too.  Very scary times. Just hope reasonable people and politicians can win out against this new wave of right wing extremism that's rearing its ugly head all over Europe.


It was unusual to have a floor 5.5 (mezzanine perhaps) but Katya made far more of it then was warranted. It was clearly marked on the lift.

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 10, 2017, 22:42:06 PM

Watched it too.  Very scary times. Just hope reasonable people and politicians can win out against this new wave of right wing extremism that's rearing its ugly head all over Europe.

I certainly wouldn't describe Verhofstadt, or Martin Schulz for that matter, as reasonable. At least Schulz has a grip on reality and can foresee the end of the federalist dream.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 11, 2017, 20:07:50 PM
Accountants PwC predict that the UK will have the fastest growing economy among the G7 nations until 2050. Annual average growth predicted at 1.9% - that would be good, would it not?
We know about predictions though, don't we?


They might have added that "In the long term we are all dead"
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 15, 2017, 13:57:26 PM
I don't believe I'd ever seen this Fry & Laurie sketch before .. Stephen Fry's performance here uncannily reminiscent of Cameron returning from Brussels a year ago with his renegotiated deal


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4m_ajuNmSA
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 15, 2017, 18:04:36 PM
Rolls Royce, the jet engine maker, has reported a record loss of £4.6bn. Some of that (£671M) is down to some dodgy deals and settlements, but a fair bit is an indicator of how business works when costs are priced in £s and sales priced in US $. A pattern we will no doubt see repeating.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38966165
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 15, 2017, 19:53:43 PM
As the piece says it's because they tried to protect themselves against a fall in the dollar by gambling on the currency markets. The fall in the £ that was provoked by the Brexit result would most likely have been advantageous to them, like it has been to other British businesses - if they'd left alone. Most businesses don't do this, as far as I'm aware. And being caught out by a referendum is (hopefully) a one-off event.

I used to work for RR and the culture, and the inside joke was that they over-engineer everything.  Looks like it extends to their financial arrangements, as well.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on February 15, 2017, 20:30:11 PM
As the piece says it's because they tried to protect themselves against a fall in the dollar by gambling on the currency markets. The fall in the £ that was provoked by the Brexit result would most likely have been advantageous to them, like it has been to other British businesses
Yup, RR will have gained on their $ sales. That's why firms hedge their currencies, to minimise exposure to moving exchange rates.

Quote
Most businesses don't do this, as far as I'm aware.
The chemicals company I used to work for used to hedge their currency exposure. We were dealing in chemicals priced in $ and € and I had to submit our weekly currency needs to head office so we could hedge them.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 16, 2017, 07:23:34 AM
As the piece says it's because they tried to protect themselves against a fall in the dollar by gambling on the currency markets. The fall in the £ that was provoked by the Brexit result would most likely have been advantageous to them, like it has been to other British businesses - if they'd left alone. Most businesses don't do this, as far as I'm aware. And being caught out by a referendum is (hopefully) a one-off event.

I used to work for RR and the culture, and the inside joke was that they over-engineer everything.  Looks like it extends to their financial arrangements, as well.
They've also been forced to change the way they account for income from maintenance contracts. I believe they are no longer allowed to state total income from extended contracts (over many years) on the accounts for one year. This change in their accounting practice was expected to make a big hole in the accounts this year.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on February 17, 2017, 09:27:58 AM
I see Tony Bliar is calling for the people to "rise up" against Brexit.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38996179

The damnable cheek and hubris of the "man", why thinks his views should carry great weight is beyond me, the man is a totally contemptible, he should be behind bars for war crimes.
Apparently we are to be bombarded with "facts" to tell us how much we will be worse off under Brexit. Sorry BLiar, there are no "facts" either way. All I know is is that I do not want to be subsumed into a Federal Euro state which is the EU End game.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on February 17, 2017, 09:49:37 AM
Exactly - Blair is a patronising, narcissistic, avaricious snake with a chronically inflated sense of his own importance; 'twas always thus.  Classic Dunning-Kruger effect in action.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 17, 2017, 09:55:47 AM
Exactly - Blair is a patronising, narcissistic, avaricious snake with a chronically inflated sense of his own importance; 'twas always thus.  Classic Dunning-Kruger effect in action.


you mean he's a politician ?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 17, 2017, 10:47:51 AM
Blair's intervention is exactly what I mean when I use the term "Remoaner". I don't mind people continuing to repeat ad nauseam that we'll be worse off outside the EU; that's fine, It's wrong, but if people feel strongly about it, feel free. It might be a waste of time now that the matter's decided but go ahead and express your opinion by all means.

But this attitude that we weren't entitled to a particular outcome in the referendum, or that we should have however many referenda it takes until we come up with an answer that the likes of Blair and Farron deem acceptable - that's what many people object to. Ten or fifteen years ago the received wisdom was that the general public were apathetic about politics. I don't think they are now, but unfortunately that apathy has been replaced by contempt and disgust.  The spectacle of the only successful Labour leader since Harold Wilson loudly condemning the majority of ordinary people in having a say in who governs them can only reinforce that contempt.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 17, 2017, 14:39:28 PM
I can't really think of anything that could undermine the Remoaners' case against Brexit more than the intervention of the multi-millionaire charlatan that is Bliar. Another whingeing europhile that cannot accept that the 'thick and ill-informed' voting public gave him and his ilk a bloody nose on June 23rd - contemptuous, arrogant tosser.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on February 17, 2017, 15:09:33 PM

you mean he's a politician ?


He embodies the very worst traits associated with that profession more than any other contemporary British politician I can think of.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 17, 2017, 15:49:00 PM

He embodies the very worst traits associated with that profession more than any other contemporary British politician I can think of.


There are lots who I can think of. Plenty in the UK who didn't reach his level but plenty on the World stage who reached the top of their respective political ladders.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on February 17, 2017, 16:01:13 PM

There are lots who I can think of. Plenty in the UK who didn't reach his level but plenty on the World stage who reached the top of their respective political ladders.


Indeed, I was careful to be specific as there are some seriously nasty pieces of work about - always have been, probably always will be.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 17, 2017, 18:48:56 PM
Unilever and Vauxhall. 1st major industrial casualties of Brexit?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on February 17, 2017, 19:51:33 PM
Unilever and Vauxhall. 1st major industrial casualties of Brexit?
No. Don't forget Unilever is Anglo/Dutch - unless Kraft *spits* are factoring in Geert Wilders taking over flatland.
And possibly yes. But then again French companies shutting down their British operations in preference to their own will be nothing new at all.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 17, 2017, 20:19:33 PM
No. Don't forget Unilever is Anglo/Dutch - unless Kraft *spits* are factoring in Geert Wilders taking over flatland.
And possibly yes. But then again French companies shutting down their British operations in preference to their own will be nothing new at all.


Peugeot will be faced with the choice of closing either German or English plants open.  We know which will be in the single market.


Hopefully the economies of scale are such that it makes sense to keep some of the sites open in the UK to keep serving the UK market. Same with Unilever perhaps.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on February 17, 2017, 21:52:17 PM

Peugeot will be faced with the choice of closing either German or English plants open.  We know which will be in the single market.


Hopefully the economies of scale are such that it makes sense to keep some of the sites open in the UK to keep serving the UK market. Same with Unilever perhaps.
Vauxhall in the UK is more efficient than Opel in Germany. The Germans don't go in for buying Opel. For some reason the - FFS Why? - the British seem to like Vauxhall.

I don't see either proposed takeover as being Brexit inspired. We haven't even triggered article 50 yet and Vauxhall is just part of a multi-national concern.

What I'd like to know is the levels of illegal subsidies that the French Government give their industries. Do I have any proof that they do? No. Is it the sort of thing the French will do and not let on about? Yes.

The recent prosecution of RR for bribery and corruption have happened in France if they were a French company? Non! The directors would all be lined up for Lediob d'Honneurs for serving the glory of la belle France.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 19, 2017, 10:49:19 AM
Vauxhall and Unilever are the main employers in Wirral, Merseyside and North Wales.... not to mention the enormous supply chains that rely on both operations.

These deals are unsettling for employees of both companies and are likely to be Brexit driven according to close friends who work there and the broadsheets. The Ellesmere Port plant is enormous, though 75% of components that go into Vauxhalls built/assembled  there are imported from the EU. Unless there's another sugar coated deal from UK Govt for PSA to remain then they'll probably relocate to 'single market' manufacturing sites - as for Unilever - locally it's Home and Personal Care products (rather than Foods) in terms of R&D and manufacture -  areas that Kraft haven't much experience of so they'd probably look to sell off the lucrative bits and asset strip (as they did with Cadbury under Warren Buffet) very worrying times I'm afraid.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 19, 2017, 10:59:37 AM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/18/giant-food-fight-breaking-unilever/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/18/giant-food-fight-breaking-unilever/)


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/18/no-surprise-unilever-sent-kraft-heinz-boys-brazil-packing/

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 19, 2017, 11:11:04 AM
I recommend those who haven't read the transcript of Blair's speech, ignore who the speaker was and challenge the words themselves.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/full-transcript-tony-blairs-brexit-speech/

If only Labour had a leader with a spine, without Blair's baggage who could have delivered this speech before the referendum then who knows what the outcome on 23 June might have been
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 19, 2017, 11:19:19 AM
Interesting piece from Blair's chief partner in crime Alastair Campbell


http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/50-questions-tony-blairs-speech-that-brextremists-cant-wont-answer-1607222
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 19, 2017, 11:36:28 AM
The "bus message" or rather its interpretation is actually a classic example of a Remainer lie sadly, so I rather think you're making my point for me, Keith. The actual message on the side of that bus, put there by the Vote Leave campaign  was "We send the EU £350 million a week. let's fund our NHS instead".




http://oi65.tinypic.com/ogmlj5.jpg


Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 19, 2017, 14:51:16 PM



There's also Airbus in that region Neil. Wonder what their post brexit plans are?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 19, 2017, 15:04:36 PM
Having had 20 plus years at Unilever from leaving Uni, my wife still works there and over the last 15 years of self employment working with so many European companies I'm genuinely pessimistic about the next 10-15 years of what might be in store. I would be absolutely thrilled if I and others with my perspective are proven wrong and will happily admit it should that day lie ahead.... just can't see it tbh.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 19, 2017, 15:11:14 PM
Having had 20 plus years at Unilever from leaving Uni, my wife still works there and over the last 15 years of self employment working with so many European companies I'm genuinely pessimistic about the next 10-15 years of what might be in store. I would be absolutely thrilled if I and others with my perspective are proven wrong and will happily admit it should that day lie ahead.... just can't see it tbh.
You must be very happy that Project Fear turned out to be bullshit though.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 19, 2017, 15:14:54 PM
last time I checked we hadn't left the EU project yet, just devalued our currency by 20% with the knock on effect of raising the FTSE 100..... so all is well?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 19, 2017, 15:16:28 PM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-unilver-chief-executive-paul-polman-price-rises-pound-sterling-slump-drop-us-a7547741.html
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 19, 2017, 15:21:20 PM
last time I checked we hadn't left the EU project yet, just devalued our currency by 20% with the knock on effect of raising the FTSE 100..... so all is well?
Project Fear, as you know, was largely based around the immediate aftermath of a Leave vote: emergency budget, house price crash, recession, increasing interest rates, rising unemployment, no overseas investment, WWIII etc.
Raising the FTSE 100 is OK by me.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 19, 2017, 15:28:19 PM
No, pretty sure it was a Boris term about leaving the EU

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Fear_(British_politics)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 19, 2017, 15:34:13 PM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-unilver-chief-executive-paul-polman-price-rises-pound-sterling-slump-drop-us-a7547741.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-unilver-chief-executive-paul-polman-price-rises-pound-sterling-slump-drop-us-a7547741.html)
Food prices have been falling for years. As with interest rates we have become accustomed to these unnatural economic conditions. 'Real' food prices and interest rates will return, possibly due to the devaluation of sterling or some other reason. Of course, a more welcome reason for food price inflation would be the supermarkets paying their workers decent wages. Unfortunately with a continuous supply of cheap labour from Eastern Europe that's unlikely to happen .....until we have a sensible immigration policy.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 19, 2017, 15:42:11 PM
I'm surprised you just don't boycott the supermarkets then if they're a root cause?

Right, let's start with Sainsbury's..... er hold on a moment.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 19, 2017, 15:57:36 PM
I'm surprised you just don't boycott the supermarkets then if they're a root cause?

Right, let's start with Sainsbury's..... er hold on a moment.
Not the supermarkets per se, just (big) business in general ...and the government of course. All addicted to cheap labour.
Not sure Sainsbury's would notice if I boycotted them tbh.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 19, 2017, 16:37:57 PM
Not the big business that dominate the FTSE 100/250 indices tho? I admire the philosophy of getting a fair days reward for a days efforts but those days seem well gone in this modern age where the rich get richer...etc
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 19, 2017, 16:56:12 PM
Not the big business that dominate the FTSE 100/250 indices tho? I admire the philosophy of getting a fair days reward for a days efforts but those days seem well gone in this modern age where the rich get richer...etc
The problem is that a 'fair days pay' means different things to different people based on their country of origin. The politicos have distorted the labour market with their unwise decision to open it up to 'all comers'. Thank Bliar and his cronies for that.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 19, 2017, 17:13:08 PM
well EU migration was 70,000 in 2010 so Blair and his cronies can't be responsible for the current figure of almost 4x this number. Yet non EU migration over the last 10 years has probably been around 2x the EU lot.... they can't all be students?


https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on February 19, 2017, 18:02:39 PM
Spent my working life "Exporting" for the Uk , getting and failing to get business all around the word. With an isolationist USA and Brexit times look bleak for the future. While we may get a short term boost from the exchange rate we know raw materials are now 20% more expensive, add onto that increased duty on raw material post Brexit and additional duty on re-exported products and we become uncompetitive very quickly. The solution to sell more to China and India isn't a solution, the playing fields aren't  level.
The automotive supply chain into Europe is very specialised, if a European customer is lost it doesn't mean there is another waiting in Australia, they just don't exist outside the refined supply chains.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 19, 2017, 18:15:20 PM
well EU migration was 70,000 in 2010 so Blair and his cronies can't be responsible for the current figure of almost 4x this number. Yet non EU migration over the last 10 years has probably been around 2x the EU lot.... they can't all be students?


https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/ (https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/)
It was regrettable that the coalition government and then Cameron's government decided to follow Bliar's lead when it came to immigration. It's a fact that control of non-EU immigration has been a 'blind-spot' for the last few administrations for some reason. The liberal elites that make up most of our ruling classes seem to think that the UK should provide opportunities for everyone, wherever they come from.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 19, 2017, 18:28:56 PM
Unilever and Vauxhall. 1st major industrial casualties of Brexit?
Not Unilever. Kraft-Heinz have today withdrawn their pursuit of a merger. Good news for Marmite lovers as it's now likely to remain unadulterated, unlike Cadbury's chocolate.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 19, 2017, 19:01:51 PM
So Warren Buffett’s fortune was briefly boosted by another $5.7bn purely on his personal stake in Kraft Heinz, whose shares rose 10%, while Unilever shares rose 13.4% to a record high.... smells fishy
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 19, 2017, 20:27:12 PM
So Warren Buffett’s fortune was briefly boosted by another $5.7bn purely on his personal stake in Kraft Heinz, whose shares rose 10%, while Unilever shares rose 13.4% to a record high.... smells fishy
That's stock markets, I'm afraid  >:(
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 20, 2017, 13:51:19 PM
I recommend those who haven't read the transcript of Blair's speech, ignore who the speaker was and challenge the words themselves.

Purely on the content, it's despicable. Where does it end, this right to change people's minds following a referendum? And if it turns out that they have changed their minds, shall we then have a third, so that those who wish to leave the EU can asset that the Remainers campaigned dishonestly (certainly, they did the first time) and  persuade them to change it back again? Where does it end? Who gets to say which of the who-knows-how-many subsequent referenda is the final word? Should we have a rule that you win when you get the result you want at three referenda in a row?

It's rather hard, isn't it, to escape the conclusion that Tony will only accept one result as legitimate, and not coincidentally, that's when it falls in line with the way he happens to have voted himself.

It's simply not practicable to hold a new referendum every few months because one side happened to lose. Because one side will always lose, that's the way they work.

The Remainers had ample opportunity to make their case, and find fault with the case to leave. The government, the official opposition, the BBC and the Lib Dems were all on their side. They still failed, and that's it - the matter is settled.

Apart from the basic disrespect for democracy I also find what he said dishonest. He claims that we didn't know the "true terms", but as far as I can tell all the controversy arises from us leaving the single market, which prominent campaigners on both sides, including the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer made clear was inevitable.

He also claims that Philip Hammond described the prospect of leaving the single market as "catastrophic". But in fact what he was referring to losing access to the single market, not the same thing and not an inevitable consequence of it, either.

Fortunately very few people these days ascribe any great credibility to what he has to say.

Interestingly, according to someone from a polling organisation who contributed to a 5 Live programme I listened to last week, support for Brexit has remained constant since the referendum, at about the same level (52% vs 48%). The much vaunted Leaver remorse supposed to have taken place immediately following the referendum didn't really happen. People have changed their minds, but that's been bi-directional - as many remainers now want to leave as leavers who would prefer now to remain. Given that the sky didn't fall in in the predicated manner, I'm not surprised.

Also, a majority of remainers think we should respect the referendum result and leave.
 


Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 20, 2017, 14:15:44 PM
The fact that the most recent (2015) Conservative Party Manifesto stated its firm support for the single market, anyone who voted in the referendum would have assumed that they would have done all they could to remain in it
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 20, 2017, 15:40:10 PM
Food prices have been falling for years. As with interest rates we have become accustomed to these unnatural economic conditions. 'Real' food prices and interest rates will return, possibly due to the devaluation of sterling or some other reason. Of course, a more welcome reason for food price inflation would be the supermarkets paying their workers decent wages. Unfortunately with a continuous supply of cheap labour from Eastern Europe that's unlikely to happen .....until we have a sensible immigration policy.


And yet those retail immigrants from Europe, Lidl and Aldi, manage to provide their workers with better rates of pay than the home-grown supermarkets.  Weird !
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 20, 2017, 16:18:12 PM
The fact that the most recent (2015) Conservative Party Manifesto stated its firm support for the single market, anyone who voted in the referendum would have assumed that they would have done all they could to remain in it

They did, by attempting to get us to vote Remain. But as you know, that didn't work.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 20, 2017, 16:32:36 PM
They did, by attempting to get us to vote Remain. But as you know, that didn't work.


I missed that clause in the manifesto
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on February 20, 2017, 16:39:30 PM
I recommend those who haven't read the transcript of Blair's speech, ignore who the speaker was and challenge the words themselves.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/full-transcript-tony-blairs-brexit-speech/ (http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/full-transcript-tony-blairs-brexit-speech/)


Here's the opening paragraph:


Quote
I want to be explicit. Yes, the British people voted to leave Europe. And I agree the will of the people should prevail. I accept right now there is no widespread appetite to re-think. But the people voted without knowledge of the terms of Brexit.


No they didn't.


There; not exactly difficult dismantle that one, and on his special pleading goes, but what do you expect when dealing with the slimy casuistry of the High Priest of Hindsight?


The man is a toxic brand who doesn't know when to shut up:
Quote
the decision was based on imperfect knowledge

FFS - talk about a crass lack of self-awareness... ::) 


Quote
Brexit At Any Cost
Argumentum ad consequentiam (http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Appeal_to_consequences) ::)


Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 20, 2017, 17:47:45 PM

I missed that clause in the manifesto

That's surprising, because by implication at least, it's in the very next paragraph:

It will be a fundamental principle of  a future Conservative Government that membership of  the European Union depends on the consent of  the British people – and in recent years that consent has worn wafer-thin. That’s why, after the election, we will negotiate a new settlement for Britain in Europe, and then ask the British people whether they want to stay in the EU on this reformed basis or leave
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 20, 2017, 17:49:29 PM
I still think there'll be a GE before we leave, always had that view
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 20, 2017, 17:55:28 PM

I missed that clause in the manifesto
I applaud you Remoaners, like a punch-drunk boxer who keeps hauling himself off the canvas when he knows the fight is really over. We are leaving the EU and I'm fairly certain it will be in a 'meaningful' way.
 ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 20, 2017, 19:41:00 PM
I still think there'll be a GE before we leave, always had that view

I've been thinking about that today with the news that the Conservative Party has an 18% lead in today's ICM poll (Lib Dems on 8% by the way, 5 points behind UKIP.  Interesting that their local government successes don't seem to be translating into national popularity as a party of possible government).

But I don't really see a case for a General Election now that the Article 50 legislation has gone through the Commons, without amendment, with greater support than the government's own majority would usually permit in another case. Certainly we'll want the boundary changes first, I would have thought. And I can't think of another issue of national importance that the government would seek to renew a mandate for before 2020.

It seems a great shame to waste a moment like this but I don't think the party will take advantage of it. Apart from anything else it would look so very opportunistic.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 20, 2017, 21:54:44 PM

It seems a great shame to waste a moment like this but I don't think the party will take advantage of it. Apart from anything else it would look so very opportunistic.
That's true, it would appear rather ruthless. Maybe Theresa is still so desperate to rid the Tories of their 'nasty party' tag that she feels it would be (in that regard) helpful to show pity towards the shambolic opposition rather than capitalise on the situation - all part of the de-toxification process. A purposeful act of sympathy towards Labour, perhaps.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on February 20, 2017, 22:07:50 PM
I can't see their being much of an appetite amongst the electorate for another GE. The truth is that the opposition is so useless and ineffectual that the Tories don't need to call a GE
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 21, 2017, 14:02:41 PM
CBI survey of 471 firms show order books at a two-year high. Expectations that output will accelerate over the next quarter are at their highest since September 2013. Car production reached a 17-year high in 2016.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 21, 2017, 14:14:53 PM
Life in the Eurozone yet...




http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/21/eurozone-picks-pace-growth-hits-six-year-high/
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 21, 2017, 15:58:12 PM
Life in the Eurozone yet...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/21/eurozone-picks-pace-growth-hits-six-year-high/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/21/eurozone-picks-pace-growth-hits-six-year-high/)
Good news. Hopefully the strong economies will continue to be able to bail-out the basket cases.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 21, 2017, 17:13:17 PM
Good news. Hopefully the strong economies will continue to be able to bail-out the basket cases.


Commendale europhile viewpoint !
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 21, 2017, 18:42:07 PM

Commendale europhile viewpoint !
;D ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 22, 2017, 08:35:25 AM
So David Davis has bizarrely indicated that the UK will continue to allow the free movement of Labour from the EU post brexit, including low skilled workers.


You have to ask what's the point of it all?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on February 22, 2017, 10:16:45 AM
So David Davis has bizarrely indicated that the UK will continue to allow the free movement of Labour from the EU post brexit, including low skilled workers.


You have to ask what's the point of it all?


Presumably to keep/entice corporate investment in the UK with a cheap supply of skilled and unskilled labour and increase tax revenue
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 22, 2017, 10:20:44 AM

Presumably to keep/entice corporate investment in the UK with a cheap supply of skilled and unskilled labour and increase tax revenue


That's sure to placate the large numbers of people who believed they were voting to stop immigration from Europe.  What is Brexit again ?  :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on February 22, 2017, 10:36:26 AM

That's sure to placate the large numbers of people who believed they were voting to stop immigration from Europe.  What is Brexit again ?  :)


They voted to prevent immigration from Europe of all and sundry, not those who can genuinely contribute. 


It's dismaying to see how it's easy to throw strawman arguments around when Remainers and Brexiters talk past each other.  Time we all got over these sort of moot discussions and got on with dealing with the prevailing decision.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 22, 2017, 10:51:15 AM

They voted to prevent immigration from Europe of all and sundry, not those who can genuinely contribute. 


It's dismaying to see how it's easy to throw strawman arguments around when Remainers and Brexiters talk past each other.  Time we all got over these sort of moot discussions and got on with dealing with the prevailing decision.
I thought that was already in place.  Did Cameron not get a deal prior to the referendum limiting social welfare payments for newly arrived immigrants from Europe?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 22, 2017, 13:50:29 PM
So David Davis has bizarrely indicated that the UK will continue to allow the free movement of Labour from the EU post brexit, including low skilled workers.


You have to ask what's the point of it all?
The point here is that the decision to allow this situation will be taken by a UK (elected) government. I made the point a while back that a compromise may be reached whereby those with guaranteed work placements will still be allowed to come to the UK.
The point is, who has the control over immigaration. If the party in government is deemed by the majority of the electorate to be allowing too much inward migration, they can be replaced by another that stands on a manifesto promise of reducing it. That choice is what the majority of the population would like.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 22, 2017, 14:01:02 PM
I thought that was already in place.  Did Cameron not get a deal prior to the referendum limiting social welfare payments for newly arrived immigrants from Europe?
He may have done but that would have been implemented as a condition of the UK remaining a member of the EU. That 'concession' was/is a long way from handing control of EU migration to the UK government which, hopefully, leaving the EU will secure.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 22, 2017, 20:25:59 PM
The point here is that the decision to allow this situation will be taken by a UK (elected) government. I made the point a while back that a compromise may be reached whereby those with guaranteed work placements will still be allowed to come to the UK.
The point is, who has the control over immigaration. If the party in government is deemed by the majority of the electorate to be allowing too much inward migration, they can be replaced by another that stands on a manifesto promise of reducing it. That choice is what the majority of the population would like.


yes that was 100% the message that was being delivered pre the Brexit referendum.


Vote to leave - we won't actually stop immigration from Europe but we're the ones making that decision not the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 22, 2017, 20:27:07 PM
He may have done but that would have been implemented as a condition of the UK remaining a member of the EU. That 'concession' was/is a long way from handing control of EU migration to the UK government which, hopefully, leaving the EU will secure.


With no material difference.  What was the point ?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 23, 2017, 13:47:54 PM
GDP figures for last quarter of 2016 exceeded ONS expectations. Export volumes increased as imports fell adding 1.3% to GDP, the biggest contribution from this source for six years.
Despite the gloomy predictions, the vote to leave the EU appears to have boosted the economy not weakened it. It's pretty much irrefutable now that the prophesying from the Remain campaign of immediate and profound economic damage was bullshit.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on February 23, 2017, 15:18:32 PM
GDP figures for last quarter of 2016 exceeded ONS expectations. Export volumes increased as imports fell adding 1.3% to GDP, the biggest contribution from this source for six years.
Despite the gloomy predictions, the vote to leave the EU appears to have boosted the economy not weakened it. It's pretty much irrefutable now that the prophesying from the Remain campaign of immediate and profound economic damage was bullshit.


Thats quite a statement, considering the fact that we haven't left the EU yet, all we've had is a vote. We're in unchartered waters...companies, financial institutions, entrepeneurs, trading partners etc. are all hedging their bets until they can see which way the post Brexit land lies. What may well turn out to be bad for the UK economy and its citizens isn't necessarily all bad for big business, who won't give a rat's arse what happens to Joe Public as long as they can turn a massive profit and  continue to weasel their way out of paying their full UK tax liabilities.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 23, 2017, 16:11:17 PM

Thats quite a statement, considering the fact that we haven't left the EU yet, all we've had is a vote. We're in unchartered waters...companies, financial institutions, entrepeneurs, trading partners etc. are all hedging their bets until they can see which way the post Brexit land lies. What may well turn out to be bad for the UK economy and its citizens isn't necessarily all bad for big business, who won't give a rat's arse what happens to Joe Public as long as they can turn a massive profit and  continue to weasel their way out of paying their full UK tax liabilities.
It's a true and factual statement. We were never  going to leave the EU on June 24th.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 23, 2017, 16:24:58 PM
It's a true and factual statement. We were never  going to leave the EU on June 24th.


Yes to be fair to you David, you have consistently been making the point that there were people on the remain side of the argument who claimed that there would be an immediate negative impact to the UK economy if the majority voted to leave.  That hasn't happened.  We'll just have to wait and see the real impact to people's lives by leaving the EU as it gets closer and of course when it finally happens.




But will we ever know for sure ?  Unfortunately we can't skip to a parallel universe to see how the UK would be coping while still being a member of the EU. No control experiment will ever be able to show us.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on February 23, 2017, 16:39:43 PM
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/brexit-rise-superliar/
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 23, 2017, 21:58:55 PM

Yes to be fair to you David, you have consistently been making the point that there were people on the remain side of the argument who claimed that there would be an immediate negative impact to the UK economy if the majority voted to leave.  That hasn't happened.  We'll just have to wait and see the real impact to people's lives by leaving the EU as it gets closer and of course when it finally happens.




But will we ever know for sure ?  Unfortunately we can't skip to a parallel universe to see how the UK would be coping while still being a member of the EU. No control experiment will ever be able to show us.
Exactly right. The economy could indeed end up going down the tubes when we leave, before we leave or at some point after we leave. Normal economic cycles have always fluctuated between boom and bust. In the years ahead those two extremes will surely be affected to a lesser or greater degree by our leaving the EU. The only thing we can measure in the future is the performance of the UK economy against those (stronger) economies left in the bloc.
There are rarely any predictable certainties with economics - Roll the bones.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 23, 2017, 22:34:18 PM
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/brexit-rise-superliar/ (http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/brexit-rise-superliar/)
Remoaner
May was more interested in showing support for her leader than going against him. After all a Remain win was a certainty (so much so that the government did no preparation for a Leave win). She was probably always a Leaver that chose Remain for political expediency, hence her reluctance to take much of a role in the campaign. Despicable and quite natural behaviour for a politician.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 24, 2017, 09:46:09 AM
I don't have access to see that Spectator article unfortunately, but until I'd seen David's reply would strongly have expected any piece referring to Brexit centred around the term "superliar" to refer to the crass dishonesty and very conspicuous hypocrisy of those making excuses to defy the people's will in the wake of a referendum result they didn't like.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on February 24, 2017, 13:49:48 PM
Thanks for the link Neil...here it is in full
rise of the superliar
Nick Cohen
For an exercise in popular sovereignty, which was meant to take decisions away from the hated ‘elite’, the Brexit referendum has, inevitably,  produced Britain’s greatest outbreak of political lying. Yesterday’s liars look pale and wan in comparison with the latest models. It is as if the long-awaited singularity has occurred. But rather than advances in technology creating a new species of artificialsuperintelligence  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), the advance of plebiscitary politics has created a new species of artificial superliar.
The liars of the past were often furtive figures. Like the man who has staggered home at 3 a.m. and tried to explain away the beer on his breath and lipstick on his collar, you did not know whether to shout at them or laugh at them for insulting your intelligence.  There is nothing sneaky about the superliars. They do not try to hide the fact that they are lying. These are open liars, self-confessed liars, out-loud-and-proud liars, who demand and expect praise for lying in the name of ‘the people’.
When they were not being furtive, the liars of the past were often petty. They would lie about little things. The politician pretending the increase in spending was an increase in real terms rather than cash terms. The worker assuring his boss he had been working on a project he had not even begun. The superliars scorn such minor mendacity. They lie about the great issues of our age; about policies with predictable and unforeseen consequences that may hurt us for decades
The greatest liar is our prime minister, as constitutional precedence dictates. Theresa May opposed taking Britain out of the EU for the good reasons that Brexit will destroy jobs, cut the tax base and leave us isolated.‘I think the economic arguments are clear,’ she told  (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/25/exclusive-leaked-recording-shows-what-theresa-may-really-thinks-about-brexit)Goldman Sachs during the referendum campaign. ‘I think being part of a 500-million trading bloc is significant for us. I think, as I was saying to you a little earlier, that one of the issues is that a lot of people will invest here in the UK because it is the UK in Europe.’Now she is loudly and proudly following a policy she does not believe in, and following the most extreme version of that policy anyone can imagine.
Far from being denounced as a cynic, and May provides the perfect picture of political cynicism in action, the superliar is applauded. The right and increasingly alt- and, indeed, far-right wing press applaud her, naturally, for she is doing their bidding. Centrist journalists applaud her too, because they have a bias that is rarely recognised: a bias towards power. This is not the same as power worship, and has nothing in common with the partisan adoration a propagandist shows for his masters and mistresses.  It is just how journalists, civil servants and everyone who wants to influence government behaves when there is no opposition or prospect of an opposition that might win for as far ahead as anyone can see. What is the point of criticising the government when it can win a landslide any day it chooses to call an election? An embattled prime minister with an opposition ready for power faces scrutiny. The ruler of a de facto one-party state is indulged.
For all the slack polite society cuts her, May meets my two criteria for a superliar.There is nothing furtive about her. She voted to keep Britain in the EU, and is now out, loud and proud in her determination to take us out of the EU. She doesn’t apologise or explain her U-turn, but proudly boasts she is acting against her better instincts in the name of ‘the people’.Removing us not just from the EU but from the single market and the customs union as well is anything but trivial. It will have vast consequences, as no less an authority than Mrs May warned. (See above.)It is as if Tony Blair had taken us into war with Saddam Hussein while believing the best course was keeping him in power, or Winston Churchill had fought World War II while all the time thinking that the appeasers were right.
We are in an incredible position. All the more incredible because Mrs May is not alone, but a perfidious primus inter pares. Her Chancellor wants Britain to stay in the EU, but voted for Britain to leave the EU. A majority of the MPs who voted alongside him to enact Article 50 also want Britain to stay in the EU, as does a majority of peers who are about to give approval for Britain to leave the EU. I argued at the time of the referendum campaign that the current Foreign Secretary was no different. He, I believed, thought Britain should stay in the EU and was supporting the leave campaign only because it was the smart move to advance his career. I accept I may have been wrong. Boris Johnson may not be a lying opportunist but an authentic idiot.  Even if he is, it does not mean that the men and women who advocated Brexit and are now implementing Brexit are not caught up in lies of their own.
You cannot generalise about why 17 million people voted to leave. But no one but a fool pretends that concerns about immigration did not push leave over the line. Theresa May has confirmed as much by putting controlling immigration above the nation’s prosperity. For all the apparent clarity on this point, David Davis, a rare  British politician, who is not only taking Britain out of the EU but actually believes it is right to take Britain out of the EU, told east Europeans that Britain would not slam the doors on them. He must have been telling the truth, because large numbers of businesses could not cope without migrant labour. His one difficulty is that neither he nor his colleagues in Vote Leave made this honest admission during the referendum campaign. The attacks (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2923654/david-davis-promises-eastern-europe-uks-doors-will-stay-open-to-low-skilled-migrants/)on him from Aaron Banks and Iain Duncan Smith are a taste of a future when the Right and far Right will be able to claim that ‘the People’ have been stabbed in the back as Brexit brings no obvious diminution of the number of foreigners in Britain.
Then there were all the promises on the economy. What happens if they turn out to be so much nonsense?  I think they will. I think setting Britain on a vast and vastly complicated course is bound to lead to suffering.  I know for a fact that there has been no preparation for hardship. It is not just that Gove, Johnson and Farage sold 52 per cent of the electorate a fairy story during the Brexit campaign. The remainer-turned–leaver Theresa May continues to sell it now.
Today’s politicians are the opposite of Churchillian leaders. They do not warn of blood, sweat toil and tears ahead. Instead they tell the oldCosmopolitan lie that we can have it all. What if we can’t?  For we never can. At the moment no thinker is more unfashionable than Edmund Burke. The notion that MPs must follow their consciences and speak their minds is dismissed by respectable opinion on right, left and centre. Everyone from Theresa May down must suppress their doubts, blot out intelligent thought, and vote for a policy they believe to be against the national interest, all so they can be the delegates rather than the representatives of ‘the people’.
I do not believe this complicity with political mendacity can last. What will ‘the people’ say when they find that all it can have is minimal restrictions on immigration, a declining economy and the most godawful mess? They might blame themselves. But my guess is that they will turn Burkean and turn to the superliars now in power and say ‘you lied to us’.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 24, 2017, 14:29:53 PM
LOL well at the very least I would have substituted that "when" in the third-last sentence for an "if". Otherwise there's a real danger that poor old Nick Cohen will turn out to be a 'superliar' himself.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Ian Harris on February 25, 2017, 22:52:33 PM
This is quite an interesting discussion. Pre-23 June, many supporters of Leave went to great lengths to insist their prime concern was not immigration - how very dare you - but sovereignty, fears of an EU superstate, the corrupt EU, indignation about Greece.

Now I read that it was crystal clear that a vote for leave was a vote to change immigration policy, and to retain freedom of movement would be a betrayal of everyone who voted leave. Of course no-one believed in the £350m - move on, Remoaners! That was just Boris being Boris.

The vote to leave the EU was a vote to leave the EU. Nothing else. If you want more, or you want to specify the terms, lobby your MP, and if you don't like their decision, vote them out in a general election. Take note, Mr Corbyn.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 25, 2017, 23:33:55 PM
This is quite an interesting discussion. Pre-23 June, many supporters of Leave went to great lengths to insist their prime concern was not immigration - how very dare you - but sovereignty, fears of an EU superstate, the corrupt EU, indignation about Greece.

Now I read that it was crystal clear that a vote for leave was a vote to change immigration policy, and to retain freedom of movement would be a betrayal of everyone who voted leave. Of course no-one believed in the £350m - move on, Remoaners! That was just Boris being Boris.

What Boris said was that £350m a week could be freed up for "our priorities such as the NHS", which remains entirely correct. What he didn't say that he would personally guarantee how the government would spend it. He wasn't the Chancellor of the Exchequer at the time.

And a vote to leave was all of these things - to reduce immigration, to repatriate our laws, to leave the single market, depending on the individual voter. Many supporters of Leave went to great lengths to insist that immigration was a pressing concern.

Quote
The vote to leave the EU was a vote to leave the EU. Nothing else. If you want more, or you want to specify the terms, lobby your MP, and if you don't like their decision, vote them out in a general election. Take note, Mr Corbyn.

In reality it was more than that. For example, both sides made clear that it would mean leaving the single market so no-one can pretend that the Leave voters weren't voting for this. The government has not merely a mandate but a duty to ensure that this referendum pledge is carried out.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 26, 2017, 00:14:21 AM
There was certainly no mention of the Single Market or the Customs Union on the ballot paper.


The Tories are going headlong into their own ideological version of Brexit with little regard for the likely damaging economic consequences.


Talking about all these amazing trading deals around the World while shutting the door in the enormous market at the back door.


Truly bizarre!

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 26, 2017, 09:22:04 AM

Talking about all these amazing trading deals around the World while shutting the door in the enormous market at the back door.

::) Stunning piece of hyperbole!
At worst, trading with the single market will continue on WTO rules. At best access will be granted with minimal or no tariffs imposed by either side.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 26, 2017, 09:24:31 AM
LOL well at the very least I would have substituted that "when" in the third-last sentence for an "if". Otherwise there's a real danger that poor old Nick Cohen will turn out to be a 'superliar' himself.
Yes another Remoaner with a better crystal ball than anyone else - sore loser.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 26, 2017, 09:42:27 AM
There was certainly no mention of the Single Market or the Customs Union on the ballot paper.

No need for that, it was implied by both sides that leaving the single market and customs union would be a result of leaving the EU. Of course, this argument was made mostly by the Remain side as they insisted it would be the cause of millions of job losses and economic disaster if Leave won.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 26, 2017, 09:44:53 AM
::) Stunning piece of hyperbole!
At worst, trading with the single market will continue on WTO rules. At best access will be granted with minimal or no tariffs imposed by either side.


Hyperbole? WTO rules would have a devastating effect.


I can't believe May is even considering them. It will be hugely damaging to the country.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 26, 2017, 09:49:25 AM
No need for that, it was implied by both sides that leaving the single market and customs union would be a result of leaving the EU. Of course, this argument was made mostly by the Remain side as they insisted it would be the cause of millions of job losses and economic disaster if Leave won.


Yes because the debate was conducted with such honesty and clarity throughout! People didn't have a clue what or who to believe.


It probably couldn't have appeared on the ballot paper as it would have made it very confusing. That's why it shouldn't have been a matter to be decided by referendum anyway.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Ian Harris on February 26, 2017, 11:17:56 AM
What Boris said was that £350m a week could be freed up for "our priorities such as the NHS", which remains entirely correct. What he didn't say that he would personally guarantee how the government would spend it. He wasn't the Chancellor of the Exchequer at the time.


Boris spoke from a platform next to a banner with the text: 'We send the EU £350m a week. Let's fund the NHS instead.' Gisela Stuart, who represented Leave on TV debates, said "Every week we send £350m to Brussels. I'd rather that we control how to spend that money, and if I had that control I would spend it on the NHS." There's no ambiguity. Defending it digs you a deeper hole. Let's just accept they reneged on a pledge and move on. They're not the first politicians to do that, and they won't be the last.

And a vote to leave was all of these things - to reduce immigration, to repatriate our laws, to leave the single market, depending on the individual voter. Many supporters of Leave went to great lengths to insist that immigration was a pressing concern.

None of those things appeared on the ballot paper. If they had, we could use the results. But they didn't. As is well documented, several prominent Leavers said they wanted to stay in the Single Market. Daniel Hannan: 'Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market'. Owen Patterson: 'Only a madman would actually leave the Single Market.' Others - Farage, Banks - told us the Norwegian model (in the Single Market) was the way to go. What they say now is not what they said then. Boris even reassured us we still had access to the Single Market in his Telegraph article on 26 June.

In reality it was more than [a vote to leave the EU].


Nice try, but no. *In post-hoc conversations, columns and punditry, and without any confirmation at any ballot box*, the referendum was about other issues. This blurring of opinion with reality is what led some - hello Daily Mail - to decide the supreme court judges to be perverting the will of the people, or other such nonsense. The actual reality, blindingly obvious to anyone with proper knowledge of the law, was that the Government would lose its case, however much it harrumphed and asserted.

For example, both sides made clear that it would mean leaving the single market so no-one can pretend that the Leave voters weren't voting for this. The government has not merely a mandate but a duty to ensure that this referendum pledge is carried out.

Not so for Leave, as above. Remain said a vote to leave could result in us leaving the Single Market - not, we must leave the Single Market if we vote leave. If you can find anything about leaving the Single Market on the ballot paper, do share. And explain why the Government has a duty to deliver one pledge you like, but can bat aside another (the £350m) you don't.

My overall point is this. The only decision voted on was to leave. Anything else is political debate and ongoing negotiation. Fact's a fact from Nome to Rome.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 26, 2017, 12:58:04 PM

Hyperbole? WTO rules would have a devastating effect.


I can't believe May is even considering them. It will be hugely damaging to the country.
"shutting the door" ?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 26, 2017, 13:14:46 PM
"shutting the door" ?


Not to say the door can't be opened. Just that a key will now need to be paid for.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 26, 2017, 14:28:16 PM
There was certainly no mention of the Single Market or the Customs Union on the ballot paper.

No, explicit and unambiguous assurances were given to the electors by the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer as well as leading figures on the Leave side.

Quote
The Tories are going headlong into their own ideological version of Brexit with little regard for the likely damaging economic consequences.

Nope - we're just delivering the clean Brexit that the voters had every right to expect.

Quote
Talking about all these amazing trading deals around the World while shutting the door in the enormous market at the back door.

Again, no. We'll undoubtedly continue to trade with the European Union countries, almost certainly on agreeable terms. Capitalism is fairly ruthless and unsentimental, and has no time for making sacrifices in the name of punishment.


Truly bizarre!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 26, 2017, 14:36:45 PM

Boris spoke from a platform next to a banner with the text: 'We send the EU £350m a week. Let's fund the NHS instead.'

And as I believe I've pointed out already in this thread, Len McCluskey said "Let’s make Brexit the moment to break with neo-liberal economics".

I don't think that's going to happen. Has he lied to you? No-one supposed that Boris or anyone in the Vote Leave campaign held a position of influence in the Treasury, so why on Earth would you take that as a promise, rather than what it was; a plea?

Just another example of the lamentable and despicable dishonesty on the part of the Remain campaign. I do wish the referendum could have been fought more honestly, not least because the vote to Leave would probably have been closer to 60% than 52%.

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 26, 2017, 14:41:17 PM
Not so for Leave, as above. Remain said a vote to leave could result in us leaving the Single Market - not, we must leave the Single Market if we vote leave. If you can find anything about leaving the Single Market on the ballot paper, do share. And explain why the Government has a duty to deliver one pledge you like, but can bat aside another (the £350m) you don't.

This is all too easy, Ian. Firstly, you're quite wrong - the Leave campaign made clear that a vote to leave meant leaving the single market. Boris Johnson said so, Michael Gove said so, both unequivocally. Andrea Leadsom said that it would "almost certainly" mean leaving the single market. Having made the consequences explicit it would be an appalling betrayal of the voters to attempt to remain in the single market.

There was no pledge to divert £350m of EU money to the NHS, as I show in my previous post above.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 26, 2017, 16:11:55 PM

There was no pledge to divert £350m of EU money to the NHS, as I show in my previous post above.
Quite right. It's beyond time that Remoaners dropped this ridiculous line of argument that says the NHS should now be in receipt of £350m more funding every week. They really have to let go of that particular straw now.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Richard_2112 on February 27, 2017, 23:29:03 PM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-john-major-theresa-may-misleading-british-people-a7602651.html

I think that's quite fair from Major
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 28, 2017, 07:28:27 AM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-john-major-theresa-may-misleading-british-people-a7602651.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-john-major-theresa-may-misleading-british-people-a7602651.html)

I think that's quite fair from Major
The bitter whingeing of another sore loser who seem certain of the future. He knows a thing or two about misleading people, after betraying Norma for four years with the 'egg woman'.
The rantings a of a very bitter has-been.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on February 28, 2017, 08:37:33 AM
Not saying they can't disagree with Brexit but I do wish some of these senior Politicians would start coming together to help make our exit from the EU the best it can be for Britain using their years of experience at the top of Government and knowing some of the inner workings of the EU, these are people who could really help our cause in negotiating the best deals possible. Standing on the sidelines like grouchy school kids not picked for the football team is not going to help at all. It's almost as if some people want to see their own Country go down the pan in some kind of self-professing prophecy rather than do what May is doing and rolling up her sleeves to get the job done.
I didn't want to leave the EU but the Country voted to leave, however small the margin - it really is time to wake up to this result and make it work in the best way possible.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on February 28, 2017, 09:44:48 AM
Not saying they can't disagree with Brexit but I do wish some of these senior Politicians would start coming together to help make our exit from the EU the best it can be for Britain using their years of experience at the top of Government and knowing some of the inner workings of the EU, these are people who could really help our cause in negotiating the best deals possible. Standing on the sidelines like grouchy school kids not picked for the football team is not going to help at all. It's almost as if some people want to see their own Country go down the pan in some kind of self-professing prophecy rather than do what May is doing and rolling up her sleeves to get the job done.
I didn't want to leave the EU but the Country voted to leave, however small the margin - it really is time to wake up to this result and make it work in the best way possible.


Perfectly put, Keith.  A thousand likes.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 28, 2017, 10:22:12 AM

Perfectly put, Keith.  A thousand likes.  :)
Agreed. Well said, that man  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 28, 2017, 11:13:07 AM
I just think Major is trying to bring a bit of reality to the debate.


Trying to get the government to face the reality of the situation rather than the blind optimism they are displaying at the moment.


Major has huge experience when it comes to international diplomacy and the workings of the EU.  Maybe the Government should take heed ?




Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 28, 2017, 11:54:46 AM

Major has huge experience when it comes to international diplomacy and the workings of the EU.  Maybe the Government should take heed ?
He's got experience of the EU alright ....but not a good one. Why should anyone listen to the boring idiot that gave us the ERM fiasco, the Mastricht Treaty along with 15% interest rates? People have short memories - the man's a discredited political figure where economics (and the EU) is concerned
Stick to watching cricket, John.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 28, 2017, 12:12:26 PM

"It was a craven and defeated speech, of a bitter man who was heavily defeated by the electorate for his own failings in Europe in 1997, who was defeated again last June and now wants to take out his failures on Mrs May"

Beautifully and eloquently stated by Jacob Rees-Mogg; probably our most brilliant parliamentarian.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 28, 2017, 14:01:42 PM
"It was a craven and defeated speech, of a bitter man who was heavily defeated by the electorate for his own failings in Europe in 1997, who was defeated again last June and now wants to take out his failures on Mrs May"

Beautifully and eloquently stated by Jacob Rees-Mogg; probably our most brilliant parliamentarian.


Sticks and stones - why didn't he constructively address the issues instead of the verbal assasination
 
And I really don't think he can blame Europe on Major's failing to win.  Blair's policy towards Europe was identical.  Major had no chance. People were sick and tired of the Conservative party at that point and the Labour Party had got its act together.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on February 28, 2017, 14:31:24 PM

Sticks and stones - why didn't he constructively address the issues instead of the verbal assasination


Because the "issues" are moot?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on February 28, 2017, 14:42:13 PM
Sticks and stones - why didn't he constructively address the issues instead of the verbal assasination

Because he was asked to comment on Major's speech, and because the argument has already been won. That's what's so unhelpful about Major's bitter intervention - he had his chance to make his point before June 23rd. It's pointless whining about it now. It only reinforces the general public's suspicion that the establishment won't accept the people's historic instruction.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 28, 2017, 15:18:55 PM

Because the "issues" are moot?


The issue being that the country is to walk off a very high cliff-face.  Major, like many others, are pointing out the dangers in the hope that someone in charge decides to use a parachute!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on February 28, 2017, 15:38:31 PM

The issue being that the country is to walk off a very high cliff-face.  Major, like many others, are pointing out the dangers in the hope that someone in charge decides to use a parachute!


Reminds me of the dangers that were immediately to befall us all if the Leave vote prevailed; total conjecture that turned out to be wrong.  I admit I voted Remain mostly out of erring on the side of caution due to the loudly-trumpeted fear of the unknown at the time and, while I still don't regret it, that is all moot now as well.


It's gone and has been gone since June last year; time to move onward and - hopefully - upward.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 28, 2017, 17:13:55 PM
Osborne's at it now  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 28, 2017, 17:18:44 PM

The issue being that the country is to walk off a very high cliff-face.  Major, like many others, are pointing out the dangers in the hope that someone in charge decides to use a parachute!
Not sure I've ever known of any cliff face from which it takes two years to hit the ground once 'walked off'.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on February 28, 2017, 23:21:25 PM
Not sure I've ever known of any cliff face from which it takes two years to hit the ground once 'walked off'.


It's a question of scale !And the view is quite pleasant for a while !


Osborne - geez - another man talking common sense - where do they find them ?!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on February 28, 2017, 23:44:04 PM

Osborne - geez - another man talking common sense - where do they find them ?!
You mean, another discredited liar. Emergency budget my arse.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 01, 2017, 09:27:08 AM
You mean, another discredited liar. Emergency budget my arse.


I can't believe I'm defending a Tory but liar is a bit strong.  Yes people over-estimated the instant impact of a No vote but that was based on well founded fears.


It doesn't mean that the long lasting impact of Brexit won't be very negative.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 01, 2017, 13:54:28 PM
Nice to see James Dyson putting his money where his mouth is and investing in a second R&D site at Malmesbury. More jobs to go alongside the 3,500 already there.
He's working towards a (very) clean Brexit  ::)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on March 01, 2017, 15:08:55 PM
Did you miss this business news, David? ;)

Boeing to open first European factory in Catcliffe, South Yorkshire (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-39067931)

Quote
The news comes shortly after luxury supercar manufacturer McLaren announced it is planning to build a £50m chassis factory on the site, creating 200 jobs.
Professor Keith Ridgway, of the AMRC, said the investment takes the region on from its coal and steel heritage to manufacturing high performance components for the automotive and aerospace sector.

Yer slacking, lad... ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 01, 2017, 15:29:16 PM
Did you miss this business news, David? ;)

Boeing to open first European factory in Catcliffe, South Yorkshire (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-39067931)

Yer slacking, lad... ;)
Yes, I must've fallen asleep on my watch!  ;)
 
And for a bit of balance:
 
http://www.oxfordtimes.co.uk/news/15121993.UPDATE__Decision_on_new_Mini_production_in_Oxford__before_end_of_the_year_/ (http://www.oxfordtimes.co.uk/news/15121993.UPDATE__Decision_on_new_Mini_production_in_Oxford__before_end_of_the_year_/)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 02, 2017, 00:30:28 AM
seems to have been overlooked

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39133400
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 02, 2017, 00:32:40 AM
The ITV News this evening was reporting a pretty bleak future for much of the UK's car industry in light of our decision to leave the EU.... let's hope they're wrong.

1160 jobs likely to go at Ford in Bridgend it seems


http://www.itv.com/news/wales/story/2017-02-28/ford-set-to-cut-over-1-000-jobs-in-bridgend/

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 02, 2017, 07:26:33 AM
seems to have been overlooked

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39133400 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39133400)
Guaranteeing the right of EU nationals to stay in the UK is undoubtedly the correct thing to do, from a moral point of view, although doing this , unilaterally, compromises the ability of Mrs May's chance of securing a reciprocal arrangement for UK nationals. This has nothing to do with the bill to trigger article 50 but a bit of grandstanding by the liberals in the House Of Lords.
My view is that it's Brussels that is playing silly buggers here, an agreement could be reached tomorrow and I think the government have already tried to negotiate this.
Hopefully, if the amendment is not now defeated in the Commons, taking the moral high ground will force the EU's hand to reciprocate.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on March 02, 2017, 08:12:34 AM

There was this news from a couple of weeks ago too from Amazon - 5000 new UK jobs from Software design to warehouse staff in 2017. They just need to clean up their act a bit for some of their employees though....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39020080
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 03, 2017, 09:08:21 AM
seems to have been overlooked

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39133400 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39133400)

Unfortunate, but I hope and trust the Commons will bounce it straight back. Sad if predictable that Labour and Lib Dem peers will gladly wring their hands all day long over the rights of foreigners, while giving not a toss over equivalent rights of UK citizens in the EU. Also sad that some of the Conservative peers supported them.

In the end I feel certain that EU citizens who came here legally to work will be allowed to stay, but this need to be negotiated, not simply given away. The purpose of this bill is to allow Article 50 to be declared, which is the starting gun for these negotiations. Tying the government's hands in advance of them would not be clever.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 05, 2017, 10:38:45 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39151755
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 05, 2017, 12:44:58 PM
I really can't see any problem over the rights of EU citizens living here. Common sense really, we get immigrants coming here from all over the world, in greater annual numbers than from the EU IIRC, we're not part of any nascent worldwide superstate yet still they come here and we don't throw them out. Simples.
Trade deals with the EU, there'll be a lot of huffing and puffing and the EU will make out they've punished us, but it'll end up not far off what we have now. Didn't the Canucks achieve 98/99% tariff free deals with EU? How much do they have to contribute to EU coffers? How much free movement of labour from the EU do they have to suffer?

As a people the British are a pragmatic bunch, it's time the Europeans learned to be the same.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 05, 2017, 14:48:20 PM
60 billion to be put one side to deal with Brexit issues in the forthcoming budget. Not an emergency budget but pretty drastic nonetheless.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 05, 2017, 20:15:24 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39151755 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39151755)

Fair's fair, Hilary Benn actually expresses a bit of concern for British people as well as immigrants, as quoted in that piece. Surprising for a Labour politician, but credit where it's due.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 05, 2017, 20:50:03 PM
Fair's fair, Hilary Benn actually expresses a bit of concern for British people as well as immigrants, as quoted in that piece. Surprising for a Labour politician, but credit where it's due.


That raises an interesting question, I think.  Who should a UK politician have more concern for. Someone born abroad now living and working in the UK or the reverse. I think the former. Someone currently contributing to the economy and society deserves more attention than someone who does the reverse.  So Hilary don't concern yourself with me, save your concern for an Irish born national currently living in the UK.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 05, 2017, 23:35:44 PM
That raises an interesting question, I think.  Who should a UK politician have more concern for. Someone born abroad now living and working in the UK or the reverse. I think the former.

I think citizenship is the critical factor. Government has a considerably greater responsibility to its own citizens, irrespective of their present location, than it has to the citizens of other countries resident in the UK.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on March 06, 2017, 10:47:56 AM
He's sound is our Hilary.  Corbyn sacked him from the Shadow Cabinet, which of course proves it.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 10, 2017, 00:16:46 AM
https://www.facebook.com/bbcnewsnight/videos/10154355242061200/


Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on March 10, 2017, 08:06:13 AM
He's a great man is RD, with whom I almost never disagree.

On this however, it's just the same old familiar moot argument, and while there may be the odd fair point, it's generally mere post hoc hand-wringing over what's gone.

We need astute commentary on the way forward, not pointless complaining.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 10, 2017, 09:10:59 AM
this should get some folks BP elevated

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-article-50-xavier-bettel-i-love-you-theresa-may-a7621091.html
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 10, 2017, 11:20:51 AM
He's a great man is RD, with whom I almost never disagree.

On this however, it's just the same old familiar moot argument, and while there may be the odd fair point, it's generally mere post hoc hand-wringing over what's gone.

We need astute commentary on the way forward, not pointless complaining.
Contradicts himself in the first minute. Another sore loser who likes to call everyone who disagrees with him ignorant. Also puts great store in those with a PHD in economics - not that clever then are you, Richard? He's right about one thing, the arrogance of Cameron.
The British people have spoken....you just didn't like what they had to say.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on March 10, 2017, 11:45:16 AM
Contradicts himself in the first minute. Another sore loser who likes to call everyone who disagrees with him ignorant. Also puts great store in those with a PHD in economics - not that clever then are you, Richard? He's right about one thing, the arrogance of Cameron.
The British people have spoken....you just didn't like what they had to say.


Yes, I'd expect much better from someone who is a master of popularising science, critical thinking and eloquent expression; his normally rigorous standards have slipped on this one.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 10, 2017, 12:30:51 PM
I thought he spoke a lot of sense - question of perspective I suppose !
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 10, 2017, 12:31:06 PM
it seemed a coherent argument to me, suggesting DC was at fault for not insisting on the 'what if' scenario with a significant majority etc - mostly due to his fear of UKiP
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 10, 2017, 13:27:13 PM
it seemed a coherent argument to me, suggesting DC was at fault for not insisting on the 'what if' scenario with a significant majority etc - mostly due to his fear of UKiP
To have insisted on a 'significant'  majority would have engendered even more mistrust of the political class. Cameron wanted to be seen as an 'honest broker' in the selling of the referendum to the British people. He was done up like a KIPper! Out of touch and arrogant - typical of many of his ilk. Of course Dawkins only argues the case now as he believes it would have preserved the status quo of which he is so fond - crying over spilt milk.
Milton Friedman's "beware the tyranny of the status quo", never seemed so apt.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on March 10, 2017, 13:52:56 PM
RD's argument in this case is pretty coherent in and of itself, it's just moot, retrospective and doesn't add anything.  He's a far better mind than this.

We are where we are - let's light some candles rather than curse the darkness.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 10, 2017, 17:32:55 PM
To have insisted on a 'significant'  majority would have engendered even more mistrust of the political class. Cameron wanted to be seen as an 'honest broker' in the selling of the referendum to the British people. He was done up like a KIPper! Out of touch and arrogant - typical of many of his ilk. Of course Dawkins only argues the case now as he believes it would have preserved the status quo of which he is so fond - crying over spilt milk.
Milton Friedman's "beware the tyranny of the status quo", never seemed so apt.


Well he was saying this last year in fairness


http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/eu-referendum-richard-dawkins-brexit-23rd-june-ignoramuses
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 10, 2017, 17:33:43 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39228245
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 10, 2017, 21:13:16 PM

Well he was saying this last year in fairness


http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/eu-referendum-richard-dawkins-brexit-23rd-june-ignoramuses (http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/eu-referendum-richard-dawkins-brexit-23rd-june-ignoramuses)
"and he was echoed by soon to be president Hilary Clinton"
Knob  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 10, 2017, 22:38:44 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39228245 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39228245)
They're missing our money already - deluded idiots
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 11, 2017, 20:10:27 PM
we've not stopped paying £350M p/w I believe?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 11, 2017, 20:59:39 PM
we've not stopped paying £350M p/w I believe?
Unfortunately not
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 12, 2017, 10:25:33 AM
I've a sneaky feeling that Putin might have influenced the Referendum tbh or am I just paranoid?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 12, 2017, 13:55:35 PM
Paranoia. I think people are ascribing too much influence to Putin.

Unless Putin's angling for Russia to take our place...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 12, 2017, 19:07:26 PM
Just odd that Farage was spotted leaving the Ecuadorian Embassy in London this week, presumably to see Assange.... just an hour or so before the latest Wikileaks dump regarding the CIA and MI5. Weekend before last he just happened to be with the POTUS at a secret dinner .... all a little odd?


https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2017/03/09/fox-news-ignores-contributor-nigel-farage-s-mysterious-trip-ecuadorian-embassy/215620

 
http://ijr.com/2017/02/810965-trump-ditched-the-press-to-have-dinner-heres-how-the-president-acts-when-no-one-is-watching/



Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 12, 2017, 19:08:45 PM
Putin would clearly like to see the break up of the EU and might fancy annexing a few former Soviet countries?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 12, 2017, 19:46:00 PM
Farage is definitely odd but that does look pretty suspicious.


I love the way the "will of the people" tm The Daily Mail and the will of Theresa May are now seemingly indistinguishable!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 12, 2017, 20:13:50 PM
Well to be fair Theresa does seem intent on providing the people with the clean Brexit they voted for, so I can't argue with that.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 12, 2017, 20:24:33 PM
Just odd that Farage was spotted leaving the Ecuadorian Embassy in London this week, presumably to see Assange.... just an hour or so before the latest Wikileaks dump regarding the CIA and MI5. Weekend before last he just happened to be with the POTUS at a secret dinner .... all a little odd?
A secret dinner that was photographed and in all the papers. Very secret.

Putin's in charge of a country that can barely keep its flagship aircraft carrier in operational condition, yet that same country supposedly has the ability to influence electoral results in two of the world's greatest democracies. Hmmmm...

One absolute fact is that EU meddling in Ukraine has been a huge destabilising influence in Eastern Europe. The EU which contains such fascist countries as Holland.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 12, 2017, 20:36:37 PM
Seems like the Remoaners are now becoming paranoid conspiracy theorists  ;D
It's all tremendous fun!  :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 12, 2017, 21:13:03 PM
Well to be fair Theresa does seem intent on providing the people with the clean Brexit they voted for, so I can't argue with that.


The referendum provided no information on how Brexit would happen, what form it would take. May is deciding all that by herself and is asking the parliament not to intervene.


Distinctly undemocratic
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 12, 2017, 21:29:27 PM

The referendum provided no information on how Brexit would happen, what form it would take. May is deciding all that by herself and is asking the parliament not to intervene.


Distinctly undemocratic

The result of the referendum requires the UK to leave the EU. She's simply doing that properly, not half-heartedly or by mere technicality. She must of course ensure that we leave the single market as that was promised by both sides in the event of a decision to leave. Britain will be out of the EU, that's the form it will take.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 12, 2017, 21:55:57 PM
The Tory manifesto made a form comimmtment to remain in the single market.  There was a whole heap of stuff said in the lead up to the referendum including plenty of indication that the UK could remain in the single market so that line really doesn't hold water.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 12, 2017, 22:54:37 PM
Aaah, only two years now  :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 13, 2017, 10:57:05 AM
The Tory manifesto made a form comimmtment to remain in the single market.  There was a whole heap of stuff said in the lead up to the referendum including plenty of indication that the UK could remain in the single market so that line really doesn't hold water.

The Prime Minister, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the present Foreign Secretary and several other prominent figures of authority on both sides of the argument made it expressly clear that leaving the EU would mean leaving the Single Market - that's a matter of record. That's the unambiguous context in which we cast our votes on June 23rd, and any thought of remaining in the Single Market would obviously be a serious betrayal of the electors.

Just the facts.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 13, 2017, 11:58:43 AM
A secret dinner that was photographed and in all the papers. Very secret.



There was one report I believe, the one I posted.... others reported from that later on.


I think it was the CIA who interfered in Ukraine and if you believe Russia are impotent and non influential then you sound somewhat naive?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 13, 2017, 12:22:23 PM

I think it was the CIA who interfered in Ukraine and if you believe Russia are impotent and non influential then you sound somewhat naive?
I think Nick is correct on EU meddling in Ukraine.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/15/ukraine-will-not-join-eu-dutch-are-promised-in-effort-to-save-treaty (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/15/ukraine-will-not-join-eu-dutch-are-promised-in-effort-to-save-treaty)
 
Reports suggest that Ukranians will be granted visa-free travel by the end of June. The EU has been schmoozing with Ukraine for months (antagonizing Russia in the process)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 13, 2017, 12:30:40 PM
The Prime Minister, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the present Foreign Secretary and several other prominent figures of authority on both sides of the argument made it expressly clear that leaving the EU would mean leaving the Single Market - that's a matter of record. That's the unambiguous context in which we cast our votes on June 23rd, and any thought of remaining in the Single Market would obviously be a serious betrayal of the electors.

Just the facts.
It wasn't on the ballot paper and there was so much nonsense spoken on both sides, who knew what to believe?  It's not just the single market anyway but the whole relationship with Europe that needs addressing by parliament. The whole arrangement needs discussion and approval by the full parliament not just May and her crew. 
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 13, 2017, 13:52:14 PM
It wasn't on the ballot paper and there was so much nonsense spoken on both sides, who knew what to believe?  It's not just the single market anyway but the whole relationship with Europe that needs addressing by parliament. The whole arrangement needs discussion and approval by the full parliament not just May and her crew.
Classic Remoaning
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 13, 2017, 14:29:24 PM
Classic Remoaning


That's a pretty poor response David, I'm sure you can do better than that!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 13, 2017, 14:34:20 PM

That's a pretty poor response David, I'm sure you can do better than that!
Classic remoaning - A1-size paper required to satisfy your demands at the ballot box  ;D   ;)
(better?)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 13, 2017, 14:36:17 PM
Good news from Vodafone -

http://news.sky.com/story/vodafone-to-creates-2100-jobs-in-uk-economy-investment-10800354 (http://news.sky.com/story/vodafone-to-creates-2100-jobs-in-uk-economy-investment-10800354)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 13, 2017, 14:51:13 PM
Classic remoaning - A1-size paper required to satisfy your demands at the ballot box  ;D   ;)
(better?)


Yes, better, it gives me something to reply to ! That's why it should never have gone to a referendum - (yes Matt I know we're supposed to look forward etc etc)  - it was far too complex an issue to be decided by a Yes No vote - shame on Cameron for pandering to the brexit wing of his party and to Faragism
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 13, 2017, 15:11:31 PM

Yes, better, it gives me something to reply to ! That's why it should never have gone to a referendum - (yes Matt I know we're supposed to look forward etc etc)  - it was far too complex an issue to be decided by a Yes No vote - shame on Cameron for pandering to the brexit wing of his party and to Faragism
I think Sir Nigel would be delighted that you've bestowed upon him the accolade of an 'ism'. He did a great job. No doubt about it, he's fully deserving of that honour  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 13, 2017, 15:52:10 PM
I think Sir Nigel would be delighted that you've bestowed upon him the accolade of an 'ism'. He did a great job. No doubt about it, he's fully deserving of that honour  ;)


to my mind it wasn't anything for him to be proud of !  ;) [size=78%] But he had no power to carry out his wishes.  Didn't need power with Cameron there to give him his opportunity[/size]
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 13, 2017, 16:49:50 PM

to my mind it wasn't anything for him to be proud of !  ;) [size=78%] But he had no power to carry out his wishes.  Didn't need power with Cameron there to give him his opportunity[/size]
You have to agree that it's a pretty big accomplishment for a man without a seat in The House, from a party with one MP to dictate the direction of travel for a sitting government with a majority..........not to be sniffed at. Telling the truth is a powerful tool.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on March 13, 2017, 18:24:50 PM
Are the Brexit vote and Donald Trump being elected POTUS evidence that we are living in a real life, Matrix like, computer simulation?


https://theconversation.com/uk
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 13, 2017, 18:48:11 PM
No.

First Lords amendment kicked straight back, that's the one to guarantee EU citizens here right to remain. Good. Second amendment about to suffer the same fate I believe.

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 13, 2017, 18:53:20 PM
It wasn't on the ballot paper and there was so much nonsense spoken on both sides, who knew what to believe?

I did .. if you didn't, commiserations!

The "not on the ballot paper" thing is not really an argument - neither for example were the extended devolution guarantees announced before the Scottish Independence referendum. But you'd hardly expect the government just to bin them and pretend they never happened, would you?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 13, 2017, 18:57:04 PM
And both amendments have been kicked into touch.

I rather suspect that the House of Lords will throw in the towel now, and that folks, was the last realistic hope for the Remoaners to obstruct the Will of the British People.

Commiserations to those of you on the wrong side of history. The good guys have won.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 13, 2017, 19:07:31 PM
I think Nick is correct on EU meddling in Ukraine.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/15/ukraine-will-not-join-eu-dutch-are-promised-in-effort-to-save-treaty (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/15/ukraine-will-not-join-eu-dutch-are-promised-in-effort-to-save-treaty)
 
Reports suggest that Ukranians will be granted visa-free travel by the end of June. The EU has been schmoozing with Ukraine for months (antagonizing Russia in the process)


Well I suspect I was right after all


http://www.globalresearch.ca/washington-was-behind-ukraine-coup-obama-admits-that-us-brokered-a-deal-in-support-of-regime-change/5429142


https://www.rt.com/news/233439-us-meddling-ukraine-crisis/


http://theduran.com/ron-paul-says-cia-involved-in-government-overthrow-in-ukraine-war-clouds-gathering-over-crimea-video/





Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 13, 2017, 19:16:44 PM

Reports suggest that Ukranians will be granted visa-free travel by the end of June. The EU has been schmoozing with Ukraine for months (antagonizing Russia in the process)


stop reading the Express then :-[
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 13, 2017, 19:26:36 PM

stop reading the Express then :-[
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-politics/2191960-visa-free-regime-between-ukraine-eu-should-enter-into-force-by-end-of-june-hugh-mingarelli.html

 :P
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 13, 2017, 19:26:54 PM
You have to agree that it's a pretty big accomplishment for a man without a seat in The House, from a party with one MP to dictate the direction of travel for a sitting government with a majority..........not to be sniffed at. Telling the truth is a powerful tool.


I suspect that one day the history books will reveal that both Farage and his mate Arron Banks are puppets of Putin
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 13, 2017, 19:31:11 PM

Well I suspect I was right after all


http://www.globalresearch.ca/washington-was-behind-ukraine-coup-obama-admits-that-us-brokered-a-deal-in-support-of-regime-change/5429142 (http://www.globalresearch.ca/washington-was-behind-ukraine-coup-obama-admits-that-us-brokered-a-deal-in-support-of-regime-change/5429142)


https://www.rt.com/news/233439-us-meddling-ukraine-crisis/ (https://www.rt.com/news/233439-us-meddling-ukraine-crisis/)


http://theduran.com/ron-paul-says-cia-involved-in-government-overthrow-in-ukraine-war-clouds-gathering-over-crimea-video/ (http://theduran.com/ron-paul-says-cia-involved-in-government-overthrow-in-ukraine-war-clouds-gathering-over-crimea-video/)
Well done! You both seem to have good arguments.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 13, 2017, 19:35:29 PM

I suspect that one day the history books will reveal that both Farage and his mate Arron Banks are puppets of Putin
That's another exciting future revelation to look out for then, along with the success or failure of Brexit and whether we'll finally get to see the back of the 'sweaties' - what a thrilling political era we've been fortunate to be part of!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 13, 2017, 19:42:57 PM
And both amendments have been kicked into touch.

I rather suspect that the House of Lords will throw in the towel now, and that folks, was the last realistic hope for the Remoaners to obstruct the Will of the British People.

Commiserations to those of you on the wrong side of history. The good guys have won.
Good news.  :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 13, 2017, 19:56:27 PM
That's another exciting future revelation to look out for then, along with the success or failure of Brexit and whether we'll finally get to see the back of the 'sweaties' - what a thrilling political era we've been fortunate to be part of!


there's a few clues out there already, I just hope that when/if the POTUS is rumbled... the acolytes will follow suit rapidly.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11666944/Ukip-under-fire-after-blocking-scrutiny-of-party-donations.html


http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/ex-mi5-spy-do-mr-and-mrs-banks-have-something-to-tell-us/
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 13, 2017, 19:58:34 PM
And both amendments have been kicked into touch.

I rather suspect that the House of Lords will throw in the towel now, and that folks, was the last realistic hope for the Remoaners to obstruct the Will of the British People.

Commiserations to those of you on the wrong side of history. The good guys have won.


Ah no resorting to Katie Hopkins rhetoric, please!


And no history book has been written before the event happened!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 13, 2017, 20:09:51 PM
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-politics/2191960-visa-free-regime-between-ukraine-eu-should-enter-into-force-by-end-of-june-hugh-mingarelli.html (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-politics/2191960-visa-free-regime-between-ukraine-eu-should-enter-into-force-by-end-of-june-hugh-mingarelli.html)

 :P


aye the Express had it covered 10 days earlier, up to 90 days then, we'll know soon enough I suppose?


http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/774486/Ukraine-visa-free-travel-European-Union-Dutch-referendum
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 13, 2017, 20:15:17 PM
Good news from Vodafone -

http://news.sky.com/story/vodafone-to-creates-2100-jobs-in-uk-economy-investment-10800354 (http://news.sky.com/story/vodafone-to-creates-2100-jobs-in-uk-economy-investment-10800354)


is the the pro remain EU Vodafone who haven't ruled out relocating the London HQ to mainland Europe in the wake of the UK leaving EU?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 13, 2017, 20:32:40 PM
and if you believe Russia are impotent and non influential then you sound somewhat naive?
Occasionally gullible, often faux naif, but the Russkies would have to be a nation of miracle workers to keep fooling enough of the people enough of the time. If the CIA in the mighty USofA couldn't get rid of Castro, what chance a Russian takeover of the world?

It's symptomatic of people today to think that if something goes against them then it has to be someone else's fault. Very few people seem to realise that you can't always have everything your own way.
I doubt if most Brexiteers realised they were saving Britain's Protestant heritage by voting to leave the EU, but hey-ho, victory by default :)

http://www.ianpaisley.org/article.asp?ArtKey=conspiracy
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 13, 2017, 20:36:36 PM

Well I suspect I was right after all


http://www.globalresearch.ca/washington-was-behind-ukraine-coup-obama-admits-that-us-brokered-a-deal-in-support-of-regime-change/5429142


https://www.rt.com/news/233439-us-meddling-ukraine-crisis/


http://theduran.com/ron-paul-says-cia-involved-in-government-overthrow-in-ukraine-war-clouds-gathering-over-crimea-video/
And the EU is just another arm of the CIA anyway :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 13, 2017, 21:55:42 PM
Occasionally gullible, often faux naif, but the Russkies would have to be a nation of miracle workers to keep fooling enough of the people enough of the time. If the CIA in the mighty USofA couldn't get rid of Castro, what chance a Russian takeover of the world?


I've certainly not mentioned world domination but it's in their interests to destabilise the EU and NATO and perhaps grab a piece of land back, you'd think Ukraine had gas and oil wouldn't you, oh hold on a moment?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 13, 2017, 22:54:10 PM
The Lords have allowed the passage of the A50 bill without amendments. Silly old duffers
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 13, 2017, 23:01:34 PM
Some of the Lib Dem peers attempted to thwart the people's wishes even after the Commons batted it back. Oxygen thieves.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 13, 2017, 23:10:49 PM
Absolute pleasure to witness a defeated and crumpled Lord Mandleson interviewed on Newsnight. When you hear the arch champagne socialist bleating about a 'hard' Brexit inflicting huge damage on the economy, it's easy to conclude that the opposite is probably true. Euro membership anyone?.....thought not.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 13, 2017, 23:38:00 PM
Some of the Lib Dem peers attempted to thwart the people's wishes even after the Commons batted it back. Oxygen thieves.


"The People"


Millions upon millions of "people" did not vote for this.
Such people deserve representation too. Shame so few representatives turned their backs on those that didn't want this.



Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 14, 2017, 00:01:36 AM

is the the pro remain EU Vodafone who haven't ruled out relocating the London HQ to mainland Europe in the wake of the UK leaving EU?
I think it probably is. Pre-referendum bullshitters.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 14, 2017, 08:20:12 AM
Absolute pleasure to witness a defeated and crumpled Lord Mandleson interviewed on Newsnight. When you hear the arch champagne socialist bleating about a 'hard' Brexit inflicting huge damage on the economy, it's easy to conclude that the opposite is probably true. Euro membership anyone?.....thought not.


the main headlines seem to be about the news up north yesterday rather than what happened in Westminster (no-one was surprised by what happened there) - it rather looks like Scotland's First Minister took a few by surprise ::)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 14, 2017, 09:01:19 AM

"The People"

Indeed.

Dom, I'm interested to know what sort of representation the losing side normally gets following an election or referendum, in your view? For example following the European Communities membership referendum in 1975, in which millions voted to leave but ultimately lost - what was done to represent them? Which of the EEC's conventions or institutions did we withdraw from, in order to make sure that the millions who rejected the EEC had their voice heard?

Or perhaps you could point to a General Election after which the Tories or Labour slipped in a few of the opposition's manifesto policies, to represent the losers?

Got any examples?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 14, 2017, 09:07:04 AM
A decent read... the UK Govt is in a particularly strong position after all... yet so glum it seems?


http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-this-goverment-is-condemned-to-break-its-brexit-promises-a3488336.html
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 14, 2017, 09:14:41 AM
A decent read... the UK Govt is in a particularly strong position after all... yet so glum it seems?


http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-this-goverment-is-condemned-to-break-its-brexit-promises-a3488336.html (http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-this-goverment-is-condemned-to-break-its-brexit-promises-a3488336.html)

Would be interested to see some actual examples of this supposed glumness? Certainly Corporal Clegg is rather glum at the moment but I rather think the misery he imagines in the government is an artefact of his own wishful thinking.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on March 14, 2017, 10:11:18 AM

"The People"


Millions upon millions of "people" did not vote for this.
Such people deserve representation too. Shame so few representatives turned their backs on those that didn't want this.


But that way surely chaos lies.  There was and is no Brexit-buttery option, nor should there have been and nor should there be in retrospect.


On balance I voted Remain at the time.  The prevailing vote was to leave.  Therefore we leave and that is that.  No-one has been disenfranchised or under-represented.  I honestly don't see what my fellow Remain-voters' problem is.  :-\
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on March 14, 2017, 13:37:41 PM

But that way surely chaos lies.  There was and is no Brexit-buttery option, nor should there have been and nor should there be in retrospect.


On balance I voted Remain at the time.  The prevailing vote was to leave.  Therefore we leave and that is that.  No-one has been disenfranchised or under-represented.  I honestly don't see what my fellow Remain-voters' problem is.  :-\




Agreed - just need to get on with the job in hand now and negotiate the best deal for the Country - although everyone will of course disagree with what this actually is.....
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 14, 2017, 14:20:47 PM
Indeed.

Dom, I'm interested to know what sort of representation the losing side normally gets following an election or referendum, in your view? For example following the European Communities membership referendum in 1975, in which millions voted to leave but ultimately lost - what was done to represent them? Which of the EEC's conventions or institutions did we withdraw from, in order to make sure that the millions who rejected the EEC had their voice heard?

Or perhaps you could point to a General Election after which the Tories or Labour slipped in a few of the opposition's manifesto policies, to represent the losers?

Got any examples?


Well I know the UK election system is a little skewed but if a party achieved 48% of the vote chances are it would get a fair degree of representation in Parliament.


Personally I don't agree with referenda.  Cameron used the Brexit vote  as a cop out to placate Tory back benchers and the threat from UKIP.  Essentially petty party politics decided the future of the country for decades to come
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 14, 2017, 14:22:03 PM

But that way surely chaos lies.  There was and is no Brexit-buttery option, nor should there have been and nor should there be in retrospect.


On balance I voted Remain at the time.  The prevailing vote was to leave.  Therefore we leave and that is that.  No-one has been disenfranchised or under-represented.  I honestly don't see what my fellow Remain-voters' problem is.  :-\


I can't answer that Matt as I've never heard of Brexit-buttery.  Could you explain it?  Cheers
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 14, 2017, 14:23:43 PM



Agreed - just need to get on with the job in hand now and negotiate the best deal for the Country - although everyone will of course disagree with what this actually is.....


Which Country though?  Looks like hard brexit is putting the future of another union at stake.  As well as the Scottish referendum, calls for a United Ireland are increasing in volume too.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 14, 2017, 15:31:46 PM


On balance I voted Remain at the time.  The prevailing vote was to leave.  Therefore we leave and that is that.  No-one has been disenfranchised or under-represented.  I honestly don't see what my fellow Remain-voters' problem is.  :-\


I would hope in a few years time should there be no deal and the alternative was to crash the economy/fall off a cliff... then those elected to govern would not keep going tbh?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on March 14, 2017, 15:46:35 PM

Which Country though?  Looks like hard brexit is putting the future of another union at stake.  As well as the Scottish referendum, calls for a United Ireland are increasing in volume too.


I meant The UK - But if parts of the Union want to bail out then so be it. I think on a personal level that would be a shame but that's life. To be fair the SNP would be calling for a referendum no matter what as like UKIP they only really have one reason to exist. Interesting though that on the one hand they want to get out of the grips of Westminster but don't see the irony of staying in the EU ties them to the will of Brussels. I can see why some folks in Scotland want independence but surely this should be true independence out of the UK and the EU - the purest form?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 14, 2017, 15:53:18 PM
They want Independence then access to the single market as Norway has... they didn't mention joining the EU yesterday and this can't be a coincidence..... if successful it would be attractive to many English based companies relocating to enable free trade with the EU.... just a thought?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on March 14, 2017, 16:08:16 PM
Well I know the UK election system is a little skewed but if a party achieved 48% of the vote chances are it would get a fair degree of representation in Parliament.


There's no real practical comparison though between what's being voted for in a GE and what's being voted for regarding our EU status.

Quote
Personally I don't agree with referenda.  Cameron used the Brexit vote  as a cop out to placate Tory back benchers and the threat from UKIP.  Essentially petty party politics decided the future of the country for decades to come


I'm actually inclined to agree with this.  Cameron went all-in convinced the Remain vote would win at a canter - perhaps understandably so.  But now we are where we are and the aftermath may or may not turn out to be a bad thing.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on March 14, 2017, 16:14:02 PM

I can't answer that Matt as I've never heard of Brexit-buttery.  Could you explain it?  Cheers


Okay, I suppose "Soft Brexit" covers it.  Or maybe Brexit-but-not-really.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on March 14, 2017, 16:17:03 PM

I would hope in a few years time should there be no deal and the alternative was to crash the economy/fall off a cliff... then those elected to govern would not keep going tbh?


Well, there are countless scenarios - who knows?  A bridge to cross if we come to it.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 14, 2017, 16:54:11 PM

Well I know the UK election system is a little skewed but if a party achieved 48% of the vote chances are it would get a fair degree of representation in Parliament.

Not if its main opposition gained 52%. Well, it might get a substantial number of seats, but it would lose all the votes.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 14, 2017, 16:58:53 PM
They want Independence then access to the single market as Norway has... they didn't mention joining the EU yesterday and this can't be a coincidence..... if successful it would be attractive to many English based companies relocating to enable free trade with the EU.... just a thought?

Thr trouble is, Scotland would lose membership of its rather more important single market - the UK. Which for me just goes to show that it's emotional / irrational hate of the English that drives Scottish nationalism. I'm starting to think that the political cancer in that part of our country is inoperable and amputation is probably the best thing. For the rest of the UK obviously, not for them.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 14, 2017, 19:44:34 PM

I would hope in a few years time should there be no deal and the alternative was to crash the economy/fall off a cliff... then those elected to govern would not keep going tbh?
The metaphor 'falling over a cliff-edge' is very dramatic. I suspect that is the main reason the Remoaners continue to use it without reason.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 14, 2017, 23:24:05 PM
it seems to fit the plan tbh
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 15, 2017, 08:10:46 AM
it seems to fit the plan tbh
At the moment, you, me, the government and even The Lord Almighty have absolutely no idea of knowing whether it fits the plan.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on March 15, 2017, 10:23:11 AM
At the moment, you, me, the government and even The Lord Almighty have absolutely no idea of knowing whether it fits the plan.


Blasphemous claim that a deity isn't omniscient shocker.  :o ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 15, 2017, 10:28:40 AM

Blasphemous claim that a deity isn't omniscient shocker.  :o ;)


I'd call Farage a bit of a know it all, but omniscient is stretching it a little !  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 15, 2017, 13:06:19 PM
At the moment, you, me, the government and even The Lord Almighty have absolutely no idea of knowing whether it fits the plan.


dat true
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 15, 2017, 16:59:44 PM

I'd call Farage a bit of a know it all, but omniscient is stretching it a little !  ;)
You admit he's very wise then!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 15, 2017, 17:26:36 PM
He is a brilliant man, the most accomplished and successful politician in modern times, and the political figure who has made the single greatest positive difference since Mrs Thatcher. I just wish that the Conservative Party could have come to a closer accommodation with him these last few years.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Richard_2112 on March 15, 2017, 21:55:07 PM
He is a brilliant man, the most accomplished and successful politician in modern times
Whilst never once actually holding any political office in the UK Parliament - ah well that's democracy for you...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Richard_2112 on March 15, 2017, 22:11:07 PM
Interesting to see Sturgeon is making a case for indyref2.

If she gets her way, and Scotland holds a second referendum on independence before the UK leave the EU, Theresa May will be forced to do the following:

On the one hand, she will have to warn voters that to leave a longstanding union with their country's most important trading partners would be an act of economic self-harm. In fact, it would be a disaster. Anyone who tells them otherwise, the Prime Minister must argue, is not living in the real world.

While on the other hand, she will simultaneously have to reassure voters that to leave a longstanding union with their country's most important trading partners will not be an act of economic self-harm. In fact, it will be a success. Anyone who tells them otherwise, the Prime Minister must argue, is engaged in baseless scaremongering.

Mrs May (and Fox, Davis, Johnson and Gove for that matter) have 18 months to work out how best to phrase all this. Wonder what they'll come up with...?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 15, 2017, 22:24:42 PM
Whilst never once actually holding any political office in the UK Parliament - ah well that's democracy for you...
Yes, the fact that Sir Nigel played such a huge role in securing one of the most era-defining political acts in the history of the UK, without a parliamentary seat, makes him all the more remarkable.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 15, 2017, 22:28:54 PM
Interesting to see Sturgeon is making a case for indyref2.

If she gets her way, and Scotland holds a second referendum on independence before the UK leave the EU, Theresa May will be forced to do the following:

On the one hand, she will have to warn voters that to leave a longstanding union with their country's most important trading partners would be an act of economic self-harm. In fact, it would be a disaster. Anyone who tells them otherwise, the Prime Minister must argue, is not living in the real world.

While on the other hand, she will simultaneously have to reassure voters that to leave a longstanding union with their country's most important trading partners will not be an act of economic self-harm. In fact, it will be a success. Anyone who tells them otherwise, the Prime Minister must argue, is engaged in baseless scaremongering.

Mrs May (and Fox, Davis, Johnson and Gove for that matter) have 18 months to work out how best to phrase all this. Wonder what they'll come up with...?
Have a cigar, young man  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 15, 2017, 23:07:02 PM
Interesting to see Sturgeon is making a case for indyref2.

If she gets her way, and Scotland holds a second referendum on independence before the UK leave the EU, Theresa May will be forced to do the following:

On the one hand, she will have to warn voters that to leave a longstanding union with their country's most important trading partners would be an act of economic self-harm. In fact, it would be a disaster. Anyone who tells them otherwise, the Prime Minister must argue, is not living in the real world.

While on the other hand, she will simultaneously have to reassure voters that to leave a longstanding union with their country's most important trading partners will not be an act of economic self-harm. In fact, it will be a success. Anyone who tells them otherwise, the Prime Minister must argue, is engaged in baseless scaremongering.

Mrs May (and Fox, Davis, Johnson and Gove for that matter) have 18 months to work out how best to phrase all this. Wonder what they'll come up with...?

Good try Richard but remember:  it wasn't Thersa's idea to have the EU referendum, and she didn't vote to leave either (opinions differ on that point, I know). She's simply doing the decent thing and recognising the result. I don't recall her ever saying that the UK would be better off out of the EU. So actually, her own position is consistent.

Even so it's not really a legitimate comparison - the ties that bind the union with Scotland, Wales and NI are deeply rooted in history in a way that relations between the EU countries never would have been.

And in any case the economic factors are dramatically different, most conspicuously because Scotland will be in neither single market if it leaves the UK. And Scotland has a financial security in the UK that the UK didn't have in the EU. It can't independently go bust or have its very own recession, without actually being independent. Its financial affairs are underwritten by the UK treasury.

Finally, they have more than 18 months. I do believe that the government will permit a second Independence referendum, but not before Brexit is done and dusted. Organising referenda is not one of the Scottish government's devolved powers, and Nicola actually has no mandate for one whatever.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 15, 2017, 23:10:33 PM
Whilst never once actually holding any political office in the UK Parliament - ah well that's democracy for you...

It is indeed - other figures who have brought about massive political and social change include Martin Luther King and Mahatma Ghandi. Like Nigel, they persuaded large numbers of people to support their cause through peaceful means without ever being elected to political office.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 15, 2017, 23:26:12 PM

Robert Preston on the U turn.....



"This has been a mega shambles budget - worse than Osborne's notorious omni shambles.

Because the judgement at the centre of it, that a manifesto-breaching rise in National Insurance would fund £2.4bn of emergency support for social care for the elderly, has imploded.

The fall out has been briefing and counterbriefing by the Treasury and Number 10 - about who was to blame. It's messy and unpleasant.

And although the prime minister is damaged by the charge that she should have seen that her MPs would not wear the tax rise, under the British system budgets belong to Chancellors.

At the nub of the issue is why Hammond and the Treasury under-estimated the gravity of breaking such an unambiguous election promise.

What is striking is that one of the most influential figures in the party praised the PM for acting decisively to lance the boil. And it speaks volume that neither he nor any other Tory MP to whom I've spoken has tried to defend Hammond.

As for the Prime Minister's Official Spokesman, his statement that she has "full confidence in the Chancellor" is a formula often taken as a nod to the inhabitant of Number 11 that his tenancy is almost up.

Trust has seriously broken down between the two centres of authority in the government.

Philip Hammond is seriously weakened, perhaps fatally so.

Senior Tories, including ministers, are openly talking about who could and should replace him - and not just because of the budget debacle but because they also see him and Treasury officials as obstacles to the kind of so-called clean Brexit they want.

So as I said on ITV's Evening News, I would not wager vast sums on Hammond remaining as Chancellor beyond the summer."



The point about Brexit is well made - is the process now set to lose its lone "voice of reason"?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 15, 2017, 23:32:42 PM
Hammond should be replaced by a chancellor that fully embraces Brexit
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 15, 2017, 23:46:07 PM
And politicians  who renege on manifesto pledges should come as no surprise to anyone but the terminally naive.
Anyway, he was never elected Chancellor...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 16, 2017, 09:21:41 AM
there were plenty of MP's put before the cameras last week to defend the decision
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 16, 2017, 09:38:28 AM
Good to see the UK government is  doing all the necessary research as it prepares for  Brexit


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C69fbdYWkAEFv3d.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 16, 2017, 10:34:44 AM
Robert Preston on the U turn.....


Simple anti-Conservative propaganda. And to be fair, it's the media and the Conservative backbenches who are the opposition these days, so he probably feels a duty to try to undermine the government.

More realistically the reversal of a single budget initiative is nothing like the media's "omnishambles" of a few years ago, and as you'll recall, that didn't do much harm. Finally - many voices of reason are available to the Brexit process, most conspicuously Liam Fox and David Davis.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 16, 2017, 10:35:32 AM
Good to see the UK government is  doing all the necessary research as it prepares for  Brexit

There's only so much "research" you can do into a deal that has yet to be negotiated, let alone agreed upon.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 16, 2017, 11:17:35 AM
There's only so much "research" you can do into a deal that has yet to be negotiated, let alone agreed upon.


True,  and that's what makes the 2 year timescale so utterly ridiculous!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Thailand Express on March 16, 2017, 13:17:54 PM
Interesting to see Sturgeon is making a case for indyref2.

If she gets her way, and Scotland holds a second referendum on independence before the UK leave the EU, Theresa May will be forced to do the following:

On the one hand, she will have to warn voters that to leave a longstanding union with their country's most important trading partners would be an act of economic self-harm. In fact, it would be a disaster. Anyone who tells them otherwise, the Prime Minister must argue, is not living in the real world.

While on the other hand, she will simultaneously have to reassure voters that to leave a longstanding union with their country's most important trading partners will not be an act of economic self-harm. In fact, it will be a success. Anyone who tells them otherwise, the Prime Minister must argue, is engaged in baseless scaremongering.

Mrs May (and Fox, Davis, Johnson and Gove for that matter) have 18 months to work out how best to phrase all this. Wonder what they'll come up with...?


https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10154590209531636&id=13312631635&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.co.uk%2F&_rdr


I see the PM has ruled out another referendum, which I reckon is exactly what Sturgeon was hoping would happen.

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 16, 2017, 14:29:56 PM
Another foreign car manufacturer showing faith in a post-Brexit UK economy:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39289269 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39289269)

Not yet released to the press: Openreach to take on another 1500 engineers
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 16, 2017, 14:55:20 PM
Another foreign car manufacturer showing faith in a post-Brexit UK economy:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39289269 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39289269)

Not yet released to the press: Openreach to take on another 1500 engineers


Well, faith might be pushing it (from that article)


However, he warned: "Continued tariff-and-barrier free market access between the UK and Europe that is predictable and uncomplicated will be vital for future success."
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 16, 2017, 15:08:47 PM

Well, faith might be pushing it (from that article)


However, he warned: "Continued tariff-and-barrier free market access between the UK and Europe that is predictable and uncomplicated will be vital for future success."
Companies rarely throw a quarter of a billion around without reason, no matter the rhetoric.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 16, 2017, 15:52:40 PM
Companies rarely throw a quarter of a billion around without reason, no matter the rhetoric.


The government promising to help with driverless technology probably helped.  Wonder what the level of investment would have been without impending Brexit ?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 16, 2017, 16:33:11 PM

The government promising to help with driverless technology probably helped.  Wonder what the level of investment would have been without impending Brexit ?
;D
You're an inexhaustible source of gloom  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 16, 2017, 17:55:11 PM
I bet folk can't wait for some of ths stuff to enter their lives.....
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/842161838741696513 (https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/842161838741696513)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 16, 2017, 18:20:10 PM
Companies rarely throw a quarter of a billion around without reason, no matter the rhetoric.


It works out at about 6% of their annual production assuming a base price of £20 K per vehicle which is probably on the low side I imagine... there'd be a minimum tariff of 10% on cars for exporting to the EU David Davis confirmed yesterday
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 16, 2017, 18:51:34 PM

It works out at about 6% of their annual production assuming a base price of £20 K per vehicle which is probably on the low side I imagine... there'd be a mini,i, tariff of 10% on cars for exporting to the EU David Davis confirmed yesterday
Percentage of free cash flow or annual profit would be a more interesting figure to consider, I would say.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 16, 2017, 20:19:50 PM

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10154590209531636&id=13312631635&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.co.uk%2F&_rdr


I see the PM has ruled out another referendum, which I reckon is exactly what Sturgeon was hoping would happen.
It's the only sensible thing she could have done,
The last referendum was a "Once in a generation" one. Are the gens Scottorum Hamsters? Wasn't the prospect of a pro Brexit vote mentioned on about page 60 of the SNP's blurb before the Independence referendum? Sturgeon hasn't got a keg to stand on - just a few stubby fins.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on March 16, 2017, 22:52:48 PM


Not yet released to the press: Openreach to take on another 1500 engineers

Surely, nothing to do with Brexit  :-\
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 16, 2017, 23:07:00 PM
Surely, nothing to do with Brexit  :-\
Sorry? The CEO of BT, Gavin Patterson, was warning of negative impacts to the business due to Brexit. Turns out that the demand for Openreach services necessitates 1500 additional engineers.
Seems he was just another bullshitting Remainer.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on March 16, 2017, 23:10:38 PM
They are being forced to by Ofcom because they have such a bad service delivery record...nothing to do with Brexit
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 16, 2017, 23:26:24 PM
They are being forced to by Ofcom because they have such a bad service delivery record...nothing to do with Brexit
I wouldn't argue that the Ofcom's DCR has nothing to do with it, however it still shows a confidence in the future demand for Openreach products.
In the wider scheme of things, it's another 1500 UK jobs that fly in the face of the doom mongers' forecasts of huge job losses due to Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on March 16, 2017, 23:39:56 PM
Again, nothing to do with Brexit...and wouldn't have had anything to do with a vote to remain either.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 17, 2017, 00:00:39 AM
Another foreign car manufacturer showing faith in a post-Brexit UK economy:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39289269 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39289269)



Here's a different headline about the investment which is required to bring the site up to other Toyota o/s standards


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/toyota-derbyshire-burnaston-car-plant-invest-240-million-brexit-tariff-warning-a7633736.html
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 17, 2017, 07:15:37 AM

Here's a different headline about the investment which is required to bring the site up to other Toyota o/s standards


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/toyota-derbyshire-burnaston-car-plant-invest-240-million-brexit-tariff-warning-a7633736.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/toyota-derbyshire-burnaston-car-plant-invest-240-million-brexit-tariff-warning-a7633736.html)
The final paragraph sums things up nicely.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 17, 2017, 13:41:28 PM
I wouldn't argue that the Ofcom's DSR has nothing to do with it, however it still shows a confidence in the future demand for Openreach products.
In the wider scheme of things, it's another 1500 UK jobs that fly in the face of the doom mongers' forecasts of huge job losses due to Brexit.

Indeed. Ultimately those jobs reflect demand, whether imposed on them or not.



Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 17, 2017, 14:16:01 PM
I wouldn't argue that the Ofcom's DCR has nothing to do with it, however it still shows a confidence in the future demand for Openreach products.
In the wider scheme of things, it's another 1500 UK jobs that fly in the face of the doom mongers' forecasts of huge job losses due to Brexit.
Fixed. DCR = Digital Communications Review
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 20, 2017, 21:21:18 PM
They're going to hard sell the propaganda to the contrary, but Ms May will accept the same deal as Norway and Switzerland. There really isn't any other choice
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 20, 2017, 21:50:32 PM
There's plenty of options. They could pretend we're miles away and give us a deal like Canada with 98/99% free trade but no single market. We're getting out just in time, as don't the rules change on April 1st and the EU members have to vote on whether a country can leave?

First thing Mrs May is going to do is to ban the import of shredded cheese and vegetables from the EU, she's going to make Britain Grate again.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 20, 2017, 21:53:56 PM
They're going to hard sell the propaganda to the contrary, but Ms May will accept the same deal as Norway and Switzerland. There really isn't any other choice

Of course there is; in fact that isn't a choice at all. Both Switzerland and Norway accept free movement of people, we won't sign up to that.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 20, 2017, 22:40:05 PM
They're going to hard sell the propaganda to the contrary, but Ms May will accept the same deal as Norway and Switzerland. There really isn't any other choice
???  Bizarre contribution
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on March 21, 2017, 14:16:47 PM
Inflation figures out today....

They seem to show that the expected rise is caused by the fall in value of the pound on the international market making fuel and imports more costly....

The apocalypse starts here....
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 21, 2017, 16:24:50 PM
Inflation figures out today....

They seem to show that the expected rise is caused by the fall in value of the pound on the international market making fuel and imports more costly....

The apocalypse starts here....
Over to you, Mr Carney. Perhaps we can begin to get back to some normal level for interest rates.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on March 21, 2017, 18:32:38 PM
Perhaps its time to dig out my Italian birth certificate?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on March 21, 2017, 19:35:31 PM
Perhaps its time to dig out my Italian birth certificate?


:)


I could officially double my 50% Irishness if it comes to it. ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 21, 2017, 21:56:07 PM
I'm one generation too far removed from being a bogtrotter, but I'm proud to be British. Roll out the Blue Passports :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 21, 2017, 21:58:11 PM
The apocalypse starts here....
Apocalypse my arse.

Inflation's back to about where it should be. The pound's about where it should be.

Who really wants to belong to a club which punishes those that want to leave?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 21, 2017, 23:19:14 PM
Apocalypse my arse.

Inflation's back to about where it should be. The pound's about where it should be.

Who really wants to belong to a club which punishes those that want to leave?
Masochists?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 21, 2017, 23:23:31 PM
Masochists?
Was Max Mosley a Remoaner?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 21, 2017, 23:30:33 PM
I thought Ted Heath was
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 22, 2017, 07:17:17 AM
Apocalypse my arse.

Inflation's back to about where it should be. The pound's about where it should be.

Who really wants to belong to a club which punishes those that want to leave?
Exactly. They also seem to think that the UK leaving the EU will be dependent on a vote by their Parliament! Deluded lunatics.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on March 22, 2017, 08:45:50 AM
Apocalypse my arse.

Inflation's back to about where it should be. The pound's about where it should be.

Who really wants to belong to a club which punishes those that want to leave?

Mmmmm currently 2.3% (and rising - forecast to go to 2.8% later this year, my bet is that it will go higher than that as retailers start to pass on the increase costs caused by the collapse in the value of the pound ) where the BoE's preferred rate is 2%.

Any gains from salaries rising will soon be wiped out and we'll all be getting poorer in relative terms - bear in mind that public sector pay rises are still pegged to 1%

I was chatting to a "Brexiteer" who had returned from a weekend away in Amsterdam and was complaining bitterly about the cost of beer and food. I nearly pissed myself at the irony... ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 22, 2017, 10:32:37 AM


I was chatting to a "Brexiteer" who had returned from a weekend away in Amsterdam and was complaining bitterly about the cost of beer and food. I nearly pissed myself at the irony... ;D
You can pay to watch someone do that, in Amsterdam...apparently. That too, is ironic  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 22, 2017, 11:17:44 AM
As well as the non comments on post #831 on the previous page.... this one should be get some folk alarmed

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/22/uk-based-airlines-told-to-move-to-europe-after-brexit-or-lose-major-routes?CMP=fb_gu
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 22, 2017, 12:03:36 PM
As well as the non comments on post #831 on the previous page.... this one should be get some folk alarmed

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/22/uk-based-airlines-told-to-move-to-europe-after-brexit-or-lose-major-routes?CMP=fb_gu (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/22/uk-based-airlines-told-to-move-to-europe-after-brexit-or-lose-major-routes?CMP=fb_gu)
Looks to me like another quid pro quo situation that would sensibly require compromise in order to lessen the negative consequences on both sides.
The good old Guardian will continue to talk down the UK's prospects until long after anyone is reading. Afterall, less are following their tribe. I most like the statement beneath this article begging for financial support  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 22, 2017, 14:23:14 PM
Perhaps the FT is more to your liking... it's the same issue?

https://www.ft.com/content/57c0c01c-ef9c-11e6-930f-061b01e23655
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 22, 2017, 14:25:21 PM
The Telegraph covers it too as does the Irish Times with RyanAir in it's perpective
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/uk-airlines-told-to-move-to-europe-after-brexit-or-lose-major-routes-1.3019952
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 22, 2017, 15:37:03 PM
As well as the non comments on post #831 on the previous page.... this one should be get some folk alarmed

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/22/uk-based-airlines-told-to-move-to-europe-after-brexit-or-lose-major-routes?CMP=fb_gu (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/22/uk-based-airlines-told-to-move-to-europe-after-brexit-or-lose-major-routes?CMP=fb_gu)

Alarmism has pretty much been the modus operandi of the remainers thus far, and now of those who want our exit from the EU to be fudged. No surprises here.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 22, 2017, 16:51:04 PM
Only two years now
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 22, 2017, 20:36:41 PM
Europeans really do not understand the concept of "Free Markets". It seems they only become available if you pay up to join the club.
I'm sure our negotiators will put them right :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 23, 2017, 23:41:22 PM
So, the trade benefits of the EU Single Market are illusory. Reported on the BBC even.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39356664

Countries trading with the EU on WTO rules fared better than us. Perhaps UK companies are shit at selling themselves, who knows.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 24, 2017, 14:23:54 PM
so imposing tariffs such as these on trade with the EU is going to improve things....


Brilliant - can't wait !

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C7r0eEvX0AAosWS.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 24, 2017, 16:08:08 PM
Indicators not looking so good...


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/24/brexit-vote-experts-data-bank-of-england?CMP=twt_gu
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 24, 2017, 19:51:04 PM
Deutsche Bank committing to new London Offices

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39378521

Juncker was wanting to Punish us, now he says the EU isn't hostile to us

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39375966

They'll be paying us to leave next and giving us a good  deal :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 24, 2017, 21:52:52 PM
Food for thought

http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/life/782830/brexit-british-food-britain-european-union (http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/life/782830/brexit-british-food-britain-european-union)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 24, 2017, 23:08:17 PM
another Deutsche Bank story http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/pound-sterling-latest-drop-15-per-cent-2017-deutsche-bank-city-london-brexit-eu-a7647571.html
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 26, 2017, 12:32:30 PM
I must admit I've somewhat lost interest in the Brexit-pessimistic news stories, and indeed the Brexit-optimistic ones as well. For one thing they seem more or less to be balancing each other out and for another, the decision is taken now and like Douglas Carswell, I'm confident that the government is going to honour it properly.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 26, 2017, 15:40:17 PM
...after another GE has been my long held view
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 26, 2017, 18:39:20 PM
As far as I can tell at the moment, the government has the necessary support to see it through already, though I don't doubt that it could increase it with a GE - especially given that it would only commit to one with a fair probability of increasing its majority. But I can't see a need for one in the next two years.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 27, 2017, 09:58:39 AM
"Any deal must include a strong relationship with the EU and the exact same benefits the UK has from the single market, Sir Keir Starmer said."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39398049

Ridiculous, because he knows quite well that we won't get all of the single market's benefits without its obligations, and such a state of affairs would amount to a wholesale betrayal of the voters. Happily, Labour can't now obstruct or prevent Brexit. But they might be able to ensure we leave the EU without a deal in place.

I doubt the electors want to see the government's hands tied in these negotiations so if there were indeed to be an election, we might be able to clean out even more Labour seats.

Happy Days :D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 27, 2017, 12:49:52 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/26/observer-editorial-triggering-of-article-50-jeopardises-60-years-of-unparalleled-peace?CMP=share_btn_fb
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 27, 2017, 13:45:43 PM
Sorry - that's a hysterical, ridiculous piece from start to finish IMO. Pure remoaner panty-wetting in classic GraunIad style.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 27, 2017, 15:02:19 PM
It's a moot point but that was actually an editorial from The Observer.


Excellent piece too, encapsulating all that's wrong with Brexit.  May is pandering to the Europhobes in her party and in the media at an enormous cost to the UK
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 27, 2017, 15:19:35 PM
It's a moot point but that was actually an editorial from The Observer.

Excellent piece too, encapsulating all that's wrong with Brexit.  May is pandering to the Europhobes in her party and in the media at an enormous cost to the UK

She's fulfilling the instruction of the voters in full and proper spirit; nothing to do with Europhobes in her own party.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 27, 2017, 15:22:28 PM
She's fulfilling the instruction of the voters in full and proper spirit; nothing to do with Europhobes in her own party.


I don't agree, but we've been round those houses a few times already.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on March 28, 2017, 13:34:46 PM
Make the most of today, it was good while it lasted.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 28, 2017, 16:38:06 PM
I'll start making the most of it in two years' time. Very much looking forward to it.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 28, 2017, 16:52:21 PM
Peter Bone on the BBC's lamentable pro-EU bias. We must fix this if their coercion-based funding model is to continue.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StAzZJ9kn0I
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 28, 2017, 20:08:34 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/26/observer-editorial-triggering-of-article-50-jeopardises-60-years-of-unparalleled-peace?CMP=share_btn_fb (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/26/observer-editorial-triggering-of-article-50-jeopardises-60-years-of-unparalleled-peace?CMP=share_btn_fb)
They're getting really upset now. Bloody hilarious!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 28, 2017, 21:46:25 PM
They're getting really upset now. Bloody hilarious!
There's plenty of reasons behind the "60 years of unparalleled peace". Let's ignore the Balkans. Let's ignore the EU fomented troubles in Ukraine. Let's forget that EU nations have been involved in poking the Hornet's nest of Islamist terror.
You could make just as good an argument for Rock and Roll being the source of recent unparalleled "peace " - so long as you turn a blind eye to Mods v Rockers...

An ever more federalised EU will be the trigger for ending peace in Europe. One size does not fit all. Quarts into pint pots will not go.
Maybe this could be the chance for the EU to come to their senses and concede. Ho-ho.

I must say though, I love all these folk who think they won't be "European" any more. Suppose that says it all about the Blairite dumbing down of the education system. Are the Swiss not European? The Icelanders? Albanians? Ukrainians?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 28, 2017, 23:44:56 PM
Peter Bone on the BBC's lamentable pro-EU bias. We must fix this if their coercion-based funding model is to continue.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StAzZJ9kn0I (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StAzZJ9kn0I)


Came across as being paranoid and hysterical. As the other guy said let OFCOM accuse the BBC of being biaised and then it will be worthy of debate.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 29, 2017, 00:34:39 AM

Came across as being paranoid and hysterical. As the other guy said let OFCOM accuse the BBC of being biaised and then it will be worthy of debate.

No, he came across as rational, measured and genuinely concerned.

We have at least another eight or nine years to fix this, and I believe we will.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 29, 2017, 07:07:51 AM
No, he came across as rational, measured and genuinely concerned.

We have at least another eight or nine years to fix this, and I believe we will.


He spoke calmly and so appeared rational but the content was paranoid hysteria.


Why would the BBC appoint 2 pro brexit commentators in such high profile political shows with the 2 Andrews, Marr and Neil if the BBC really was institutionally pro EU?



Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 29, 2017, 07:15:09 AM
The Britain Bashing Corporation is really upping the ante this morning. Clegglet is on Breakfast in a minute, probably to spout his usual garbage about the huge benefits of being in the EU.
Last night, Newsnight devoted about 10 minutes to a piece from Calamity where he visited Ebbw Vale. Overwhelmingly Brexiteers, the people of the town gave their reasons for voting out whilst Calamity tried to convince them they were wrong. Plenty of EU investment ....but no jobs - few nice buildings and a lovely statue of a dragon. He managed to gather a few kids who were disappointed we were leaving but they won't be hanging around for too much longer.
Clegg returned home with his tail between his legs. A good attempt by BBC but seemed to,ultimately, fail to make their case convincingly.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 29, 2017, 08:24:08 AM
The Britain Bashing Corporation is really upping the ante this morning. Clegglet is on Breakfast in a minute, probably to spout his usual garbage about the huge benefits of being in the EU.

Yes, they wheeled him out for the 5 Live breakfast programme as well. Still -  we are leaving the EU and I believe we have plenty of time to fix the BBC, as well.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 29, 2017, 09:25:38 AM

He spoke calmly and so appeared rational but the content was paranoid hysteria.


Why would the BBC appoint 2 pro brexit commentators in such high profile political shows with the 2 Andrews, Marr and Neil if the BBC really was institutionally pro EU?


not to mention Katya Adler, I don't think anyone could describe the BBCs European Editor as being pro-eu. 


This stuff is pure nonsense, up there with conspiracy theorists believing that Man hasn't landed on the Moon or that 9/11 was an inside job
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 29, 2017, 10:25:44 AM

Came across as being paranoid and hysterical. As the other guy said let OFCOM accuse the BBC of being biaised and then it will be worthy of debate.
A comment on this piece:
"I work for the BBC and it is very biased - but the problem is with the types of people it employs. The BBC gives special preference to candidates who are under 35 and from ethnic minority backgrounds who are staunchly left wing and exasperatingly politically correct. Then there are the rich kids who are able to afford unpaid internships at the BBC in London for many months on end. They effectively buy themselves a job within the corporation. These kids are what most of us would call 'trustafarians' - very left wing, never had to work hard for anything and have a general disdain for anyone who didn't go to university or doesn't agree with their world view. The problem with the BBC is the people it chooses to employ and that is reflected in its output - which is incredibly slanted towards neoliberalism and staunch support of the status quo - whatever that may be"
 
Says it all
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Thailand Express on March 29, 2017, 10:35:31 AM
This stuff is pure nonsense, up there with conspiracy theorists believing that Man hasn't landed on the Moon or that 9/11 was an inside job


Don't go there, this thread is tortuous enough as it is!

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 29, 2017, 10:46:19 AM

Don't go there, this thread is tortuous enough as it is!
Fair point - I'll watch my step - it is pretty risible though
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 29, 2017, 11:40:08 AM
A comment on this piece:
"I work for the BBC and it is very biased - but the problem is with the types of people it employs. The BBC gives special preference to candidates who are under 35 and from ethnic minority backgrounds who are staunchly left wing and exasperatingly politically correct. Then there are the rich kids who are able to afford unpaid internships at the BBC in London for many months on end. They effectively buy themselves a job within the corporation. These kids are what most of us would call 'trustafarians' - very left wing, never had to work hard for anything and have a general disdain for anyone who didn't go to university or doesn't agree with their world view. The problem with the BBC is the people it chooses to employ and that is reflected in its output - which is incredibly slanted towards neoliberalism and staunch support of the status quo - whatever that may be"
 
Says it all

Yes, no surprises there. Laughable that people can't see the painful pro-left bias evident in the BBC's output, and not only in news and current affairs either.

But we have time to fix this.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 29, 2017, 11:40:33 AM
A comment on this piece:
"I work for the BBC and it is very biased - but the problem is with the types of people it employs. The BBC gives special preference to candidates who are under 35 and from ethnic minority backgrounds who are staunchly left wing and exasperatingly politically correct. Then there are the rich kids who are able to afford unpaid internships at the BBC in London for many months on end. They effectively buy themselves a job within the corporation. These kids are what most of us would call 'trustafarians' - very left wing, never had to work hard for anything and have a general disdain for anyone who didn't go to university or doesn't agree with their world view. The problem with the BBC is the people it chooses to employ and that is reflected in its output - which is incredibly slanted towards neoliberalism and staunch support of the status quo - whatever that may be"
 
Says it all


wonder who wrote that - Pol Pot ?


it's unverified and unsubstantiated but seems to be written by someone with a right of centre view point - you or Slim perhaps ?


Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 29, 2017, 12:11:28 PM
This is from blogger Pete North, he knows a lot more than most people about the EU, I repost his thoughts on A-Day, as he calls it here, thought some of you might appreciate it.

A-Day. The clock starts ticking. Now we can expect a torrent of clueless opining on what happens next from people who know absolutely nothing about trade - or even the EU for that matter.
As to what precisely does happen next is actually the first item on the agenda. When nothing quite like this has been done before we must first establish the order of battle. First and foremost comes the terms of departure. There will be a bill to settle along with the many administrative chores necessary to become an independent state. This includes our WTO membership reconfiguration. That should come high up on the agenda in order to get started as soon as possible.
That much will deal with future subsidy quotas and schedules - a singularly opaque process best left to the officials. It won't be until this is settled that we see any serious discussion about the mode of transition and the new framework for future trade relations. It will be some months before any serious work is done in that regard and not until the French and German elections are over. It will take some time for the new French administration to get bedded in.
Beyond that I do not care to speculate on what the various outcomes will be. What we do know is that the EU will insist on ECJ jurisdiction for the duration of any transition and that we will linger under the EU umbrella for some considerable time to come - assuming we don't see an accidental Brexit.
There will be two strands of negotiation here. We will see the political element which promises to be as dramatic as it is tedious and then there's the technical which is far beyond the wits of anyone in our media. Carving up the CAP and CFP promises to be an intensely political and hyper bureaucratic affair.
For me it will be a bittersweet process. Now we get to see who is right about what. I rather expect to see a torrent of Toryboy whining about trade barriers and regulation, seeking to present the EU as obstinate and unreasonable when in fact we will simply be seeing the natural conclusion to domestic political choices made some months ago. I'm not going to be magnanimous or even polite about this. In fact I am going to be deeply unpleasant like you have never seen.
I have now endured years of overly assertive ignorance on these such matters, and now we are looking at losing substantial operating rights within the single market I am going to make damn sure their excuses do not stand.
I think the first casualty of Article 50 will be the notion that the process can be completed inside two years. It is likely that we will surrender a good deal of leverage in seeking an extension not least because of the timing. We're on their clock. They hold most of the cards.
The second bogus assumption will be the notion that we can simply carry over EU rules onto the statute book. We could do it were we retaining the single market components but without membership of EU governance systems the whole idea starts to fall apart. Further to that, I expect the main reason a lot of third party agreements cannot be carried over will be the same absence of EU institutions.
As much as trade deals set out terms of trade and the means by which they are administered, they also include a statements giving effect to working bodies, arbitration mechanisms and surveillance systems. Data capture and market surveillance is central to most trade administration.
Because the government barely recognises the need for such instruments we do not know what form they will take and we will see a last minute fudge - either borrowing Efta constructs or leaving things as they are. We will see a number of embarrassing climb downs for the government as a number of key Brexit promises melt away. As much as the chickens will be coming home to roost, they'll be thumbing through the ikea catalogue and measuring the curtains. They're in it for the long haul.
At every turn we could have done ourselves a favour by opting for off the shelf instruments but instead we'll be wasting our time and their talking about bespoke systems to bring about functionality our government has overlooked. There are undisturbed pygmy tribes in the upper Amazon with a greater grasp of EU trade than David Davies.
Put simply, if you think Brexit has been a farce to date, you ain't seen nothing yet. There are many unknowns even for those who do have a clue. It will rapidly become a shambolic mess as a number of overly confident assumptions collide with reality.
Nick Clegg put it best the other day. This will be the first round of trade talks in history where the outcome is less trade on worse terms. This is not a result of Brexit. The EEA would, for the most part, safeguard "frictionless" trade. What we get instead will be a shadow of it - and it's purely a consequence of Tory tribal idiocy.
The great unknown is when exactly the penny will drop. It won't take long for politicians to realise they have faulty information and a flawed understanding. Whether or not there is time to correct it is anyone's guess. It may be possible to pause the proceedings while we hammer out a clone of the EEA agreement. That will likely see us backtracking on ending freedom of movement. That will be the price for bailing us out. It might well be that the EU saves us from ourselves. Mr Banier is not a hard liner and he is a pragmatist. He could very well be the voice of reason.
I get the impression that on the opposite side of the table there is a sense of bewilderment and disbelief that our government could be so ill-prepared and under informed. That will cost us. It is ironic that our best hopes to avoid a spectacular failure now lie with the much maligned EU. These are strange times indeed.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 29, 2017, 13:56:39 PM
I think these ultra-pessimistic pieces will be seen in a rather different light in a couple of years.

A few calmer words from John Redwood on the forthcoming negotiations which I think maintain the proper perspective:

Article 50 put in the two year exit provision to prevent a reluctant EU delaying a country’s departure by refusing to negotiate an exit agreement sensibly. The UK’s despatch of the letter now places the obligations on the rest of the EU to see what they can salvage from their departing member. They should have a long list of things they do not want to lose which is realistic, and another list of things they don’t want to lose which are unrealistic.

The first list will encompass protecting their access our lucrative export market, ensuring the position of EU nationals in the UK, keeping access to the City for the money their companies and individuals need to raise, keeping their flying rights into the UK, keeping UK involvement in European defence, and preserving and developing many collaborations on research and joint investment. All of those the UK is willing to grant in return for a punishment free settlement.


The second list may encompass an exit fee, continuing contributions to their budget, and continuing freedom of movement between the UK and the EU. Asking for those will show they still have not understood why we are leaving, nor the weakness of their legal and political position.

Important to remember that the remaining EU countries have a lot to lose. I think the prospect of doing so will help them to concentrate on a sensible settlement.

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 29, 2017, 13:58:20 PM

wonder who wrote that - Pol Pot ?


it's unverified and unsubstantiated but seems to be written by someone with a right of centre view point - you or Slim perhaps ?

Don't know about David but I couldn't work for the BBC in good conscience - I couldn't take money coerced from ordinary people for the mere privilege of owning a television.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 29, 2017, 14:01:02 PM

wonder who wrote that - Pol Pot ?


it's unverified and unsubstantiated but seems to be written by someone with a right of centre view point - you or Slim perhaps ?
'ElectricJohnny' as a matter of fact.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 29, 2017, 14:02:18 PM
This is from blogger Pete North, he knows a lot more than most people about the EU, I repost his thoughts on A-Day, as he calls it here, thought some of you might appreciate it.

A-Day. The clock starts ticking. Now we can expect a torrent of clueless opining on what happens next from people who know absolutely nothing about trade - or even the EU for that matter.
As to what precisely does happen next is actually the first item on the agenda. When nothing quite like this has been done before we must first establish the order of battle. First and foremost comes the terms of departure. There will be a bill to settle along with the many administrative chores necessary to become an independent state. This includes our WTO membership reconfiguration. That should come high up on the agenda in order to get started as soon as possible.
That much will deal with future subsidy quotas and schedules - a singularly opaque process best left to the officials. It won't be until this is settled that we see any serious discussion about the mode of transition and the new framework for future trade relations. It will be some months before any serious work is done in that regard and not until the French and German elections are over. It will take some time for the new French administration to get bedded in.
Beyond that I do not care to speculate on what the various outcomes will be. What we do know is that the EU will insist on ECJ jurisdiction for the duration of any transition and that we will linger under the EU umbrella for some considerable time to come - assuming we don't see an accidental Brexit.
There will be two strands of negotiation here. We will see the political element which promises to be as dramatic as it is tedious and then there's the technical which is far beyond the wits of anyone in our media. Carving up the CAP and CFP promises to be an intensely political and hyper bureaucratic affair.
For me it will be a bittersweet process. Now we get to see who is right about what. I rather expect to see a torrent of Toryboy whining about trade barriers and regulation, seeking to present the EU as obstinate and unreasonable when in fact we will simply be seeing the natural conclusion to domestic political choices made some months ago. I'm not going to be magnanimous or even polite about this. In fact I am going to be deeply unpleasant like you have never seen.
I have now endured years of overly assertive ignorance on these such matters, and now we are looking at losing substantial operating rights within the single market I am going to make damn sure their excuses do not stand.
I think the first casualty of Article 50 will be the notion that the process can be completed inside two years. It is likely that we will surrender a good deal of leverage in seeking an extension not least because of the timing. We're on their clock. They hold most of the cards.
The second bogus assumption will be the notion that we can simply carry over EU rules onto the statute book. We could do it were we retaining the single market components but without membership of EU governance systems the whole idea starts to fall apart. Further to that, I expect the main reason a lot of third party agreements cannot be carried over will be the same absence of EU institutions.
As much as trade deals set out terms of trade and the means by which they are administered, they also include a statements giving effect to working bodies, arbitration mechanisms and surveillance systems. Data capture and market surveillance is central to most trade administration.
Because the government barely recognises the need for such instruments we do not know what form they will take and we will see a last minute fudge - either borrowing Efta constructs or leaving things as they are. We will see a number of embarrassing climb downs for the government as a number of key Brexit promises melt away. As much as the chickens will be coming home to roost, they'll be thumbing through the ikea catalogue and measuring the curtains. They're in it for the long haul.
At every turn we could have done ourselves a favour by opting for off the shelf instruments but instead we'll be wasting our time and their talking about bespoke systems to bring about functionality our government has overlooked. There are undisturbed pygmy tribes in the upper Amazon with a greater grasp of EU trade than David Davies.
Put simply, if you think Brexit has been a farce to date, you ain't seen nothing yet. There are many unknowns even for those who do have a clue. It will rapidly become a shambolic mess as a number of overly confident assumptions collide with reality.
Nick Clegg put it best the other day. This will be the first round of trade talks in history where the outcome is less trade on worse terms. This is not a result of Brexit. The EEA would, for the most part, safeguard "frictionless" trade. What we get instead will be a shadow of it - and it's purely a consequence of Tory tribal idiocy.
The great unknown is when exactly the penny will drop. It won't take long for politicians to realise they have faulty information and a flawed understanding. Whether or not there is time to correct it is anyone's guess. It may be possible to pause the proceedings while we hammer out a clone of the EEA agreement. That will likely see us backtracking on ending freedom of movement. That will be the price for bailing us out. It might well be that the EU saves us from ourselves. Mr Banier is not a hard liner and he is a pragmatist. He could very well be the voice of reason.
I get the impression that on the opposite side of the table there is a sense of bewilderment and disbelief that our government could be so ill-prepared and under informed. That will cost us. It is ironic that our best hopes to avoid a spectacular failure now lie with the much maligned EU. These are strange times indeed.
Very sore loser
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on March 29, 2017, 14:04:49 PM

wonder who wrote that - Pol Pot ?

it's unverified and unsubstantiated but seems to be written by someone with a right of centre view point - you or Slim perhaps ?

The quote posted by DavidL chimes with plenty of evidence - the BBC is stuffed with agenda-driven Guardianista regressives.

Take a very recent example: on the BBC Asian Network this question was casually and blithely posed: "What should be the punishment for blasphemy?".  Only a huge and perfectly understandable backlash resulted in the BBC tweeting a clarification and "admission" that the question was "badly phrased".   
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 29, 2017, 14:13:07 PM
A very fine speech by the PM on A50 today - she's doing well in very challenging circumstances (unlike the hapless Trot on the otherside of the despatch box)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 29, 2017, 14:29:22 PM
The quote posted by DavidL chimes with plenty of evidence - the BBC is stuffed with agenda-driven Guardianista regressives.

Take a very recent example: on the BBC Asian Network this question was casually and blithely posed: "What should be the punishment for blasphemy?".  Only a huge and perfectly understandable backlash resulted in the BBC tweeting a clarification and "admission" that the question was "badly phrased".   


Can't believe there would be too  many "Guardianistas" who would pose that question !
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on March 29, 2017, 14:53:27 PM

Can't believe there would be too  many "Guardianistas" who would pose that question !


That would only be because that as they're driven by identity politics, they won't regard themselves as being of the "correct" demographic profile to pose it, knowing that they wouldn't get away with it, while simultaneously defending apologists that are of the "correct" demographic.  Because to condemn them instead would be unthinkably "racist" or "Islamophobic".   This is the crazy place we are at with the gone-to-lunch Left.


     
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 29, 2017, 16:39:57 PM
I think these ultra-pessimistic pieces will be seen in a rather different light in a couple of years.

A few calmer words from John Redwood on the forthcoming negotiations which I think maintain the proper perspective:

Article 50 put in the two year exit provision to prevent a reluctant EU delaying a country’s departure by refusing to negotiate an exit agreement sensibly. The UK’s despatch of the letter now places the obligations on the rest of the EU to see what they can salvage from their departing member. They should have a long list of things they do not want to lose which is realistic, and another list of things they don’t want to lose which are unrealistic.

The first list will encompass protecting their access our lucrative export market, ensuring the position of EU nationals in the UK, keeping access to the City for the money their companies and individuals need to raise, keeping their flying rights into the UK, keeping UK involvement in European defence, and preserving and developing many collaborations on research and joint investment. All of those the UK is willing to grant in return for a punishment free settlement.


The second list may encompass an exit fee, continuing contributions to their budget, and continuing freedom of movement between the UK and the EU. Asking for those will show they still have not understood why we are leaving, nor the weakness of their legal and political position.

Important to remember that the remaining EU countries have a lot to lose. I think the prospect of doing so will help them to concentrate on a sensible settlement.


Ironically,  Pete North is a Brexiter btw, perhaps folk should be concerned then if he's that pessimistic?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 29, 2017, 16:41:21 PM
Very sore loser


he won
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on March 29, 2017, 16:48:01 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C7Q79tnW4AEAZGH.jpg:large
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 29, 2017, 17:44:13 PM
I think these ultra-pessimistic pieces will be seen in a rather different light in a couple of years.

A few calmer words from John Redwood on the forthcoming negotiations which I think maintain the proper perspective:

Article 50 put in the two year exit provision to prevent a reluctant EU delaying a country’s departure by refusing to negotiate an exit agreement sensibly. The UK’s despatch of the letter now places the obligations on the rest of the EU to see what they can salvage from their departing member. They should have a long list of things they do not want to lose which is realistic, and another list of things they don’t want to lose which are unrealistic.

The first list will encompass protecting their access our lucrative export market, ensuring the position of EU nationals in the UK, keeping access to the City for the money their companies and individuals need to raise, keeping their flying rights into the UK, keeping UK involvement in European defence, and preserving and developing many collaborations on research and joint investment. All of those the UK is willing to grant in return for a punishment free settlement.


The second list may encompass an exit fee, continuing contributions to their budget, and continuing freedom of movement between the UK and the EU. Asking for those will show they still have not understood why we are leaving, nor the weakness of their legal and political position.

Important to remember that the remaining EU countries have a lot to lose. I think the prospect of doing so will help them to concentrate on a sensible settlement.


Thank God he has absolutely no say in the Brexit negotiations.  Wise move by May to keep him well out of the picture!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 29, 2017, 17:47:35 PM

That would only be because that as they're driven by identity politics, the won't regard themselves as being of the "correct" demographic profile to pose it, knowing that they wouldn't get away with it, while simultaneously defending apologists that are of the "correct" demographic.  Because to condemn them instead would be unthinkably "racist" or "Islamophobic".   This is the crazy place we are at with the gone-to-lunch Left.


   


That some contorted position to maintain.  I bet they keep their chiropractors busy!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 29, 2017, 18:07:38 PM

he won
In that case, I'm glad that the winners within the government choose to take a more optimistic view
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 29, 2017, 18:10:10 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C7Q79tnW4AEAZGH.jpg:large (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C7Q79tnW4AEAZGH.jpg:large)
She wasn't keen - refused to wear a t-shirt
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on March 29, 2017, 19:44:15 PM
Brexiteers have nowhere left to hide and they are now unable to make crap up and hope it's real because Project Fear becomes PROJECT FACT today!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 29, 2017, 20:14:25 PM

Ironically,  Pete North is a Brexiter btw
Good man, every vote counted
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 29, 2017, 20:18:05 PM
Brexiteers have nowhere left to hide and they are now unable to make crap up and hope it's real because Project Fear becomes PROJECT FACT today!
We should really try to channel Remoaner rage into some alternative new environmentally-friendly energy source
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 29, 2017, 20:20:01 PM
Brexiteers have nowhere left to hide and they are now unable to make crap up and hope it's real because Project Fear becomes PROJECT FACT today!
Project FEAR is, was and always shall be Project BULLSHIT.

There are so many variables in the world - yes, it's a global thing - that in five years time nobody will have a clue as to what is really responsible for what.

It'll be hard going along the way, but that's what you expect when career politicians are involved. Sit back, relax and have a nice cup of tea :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on March 29, 2017, 20:52:06 PM
I'll settle for an espresso.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on March 29, 2017, 21:15:43 PM
Brexiteers have nowhere left to hide and they are now unable to make crap up and hope it's real because Project Fear becomes PROJECT FACT today!

No, Project Fear becomes Project Rejected and Forgotten Empty Threats.

No need to hide or make anything up, nor the slightest inclination to apologise for wanting to live in a self-governing nation with control of its own laws and borders.

(http://truth.justdied.com/images/britainwestminster.jpg)

We dared to dream, we outnumbered the sheep, we won.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on March 29, 2017, 22:15:38 PM
The EU have to be nice to us.
Article 8  of the Lisbon Treaty

Quote
1. The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.

2. For the purposes of paragraph 1, the Union may conclude specific agreements with the countries concerned. These agreements may contain reciprocal rights and obligations as well as the possibility of undertaking activities jointly. Their implementation shall be the subject of periodic consultation.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on March 31, 2017, 00:12:09 AM
Oh dear. Alastair Campbell on This Week says he believes Brexit will be halted and an increasing number wish this to happen, in spite of no evidence that this is the case. Andrew Neil, obviously having to tread carefully, accuses him only of being delusional - quite merciful.
Portillo does a brilliant job of reminding him what a mess the EU have created in the name of federalism.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on March 31, 2017, 10:32:43 AM
Just one indication of how messy this is going to get...


https://www.ft.com/content/98f1cedc-1582-378e-8b54-b635997fed7f
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on March 31, 2017, 13:52:12 PM
Oh dear. Alastair Campbell on This Week says he believes Brexit will be halted and an increasing number wish this to happen, in spite of no evidence that this is the case. Andrew Neil, obviously having to tread carefully, accuses him only of being delusional - quite merciful.
Portillo does a brilliant job of reminding him what a mess the EU have created in the name of federalism.


Yes, saw that.  I must say since way back when I took a rather juvenile satisfaction in seeing the smug smile wiped of Portillo's face after his election defeat, he's grown exponentially in my estimations.  Talks with a great deal of clarity and sense.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on April 01, 2017, 11:56:02 AM
The EU showing its downright nastiness with it saying that any decisions concerning Gibraltar will be run by the Spanish Government.
I thought the 27 were supposed to be acting as one?
Duplicitousness, deceit and speaking with forked-tongues. That's the EU for you.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on April 01, 2017, 14:42:37 PM
Perhaps the PM should have included them in her letter then?

Gibraltar’s MEP, Clare Moody, claimed Theresa May’s failure to mention Gibraltar in her article 50 letter, notifying the EU of the UK’s intention to leave, had emboldened the Spanish and signalled that London was not affording the territory the same importance in Brexit talks as Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Moody, who has represented Gibraltar in the European parliament since 2014, said: “It is appalling, and an example of the carelessness with which the government are handling these negotiations overall.”
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on April 02, 2017, 16:09:27 PM
Quote from Tim Fallon after Michael Howard suggested the PM may go to war over Gibraltar.

 “It is unbelievable that within a week of triggering article 50 there are Conservatives already discussing potential wars with our European neighbours.

“In only a few days the Conservative right are turning long term allies into potential enemies. I hope this isn’t a sign of the government’s approach to the long negotiations to come.”
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 02, 2017, 16:23:49 PM
Quote from Tim Fallon after Michael Howard suggested the PM may go to war over Gibraltar.

 “It is unbelievable that within a week of triggering article 50 there are Conservatives already discussing potential wars with our European neighbours.

“In only a few days the Conservative right are turning long term allies into potential enemies. I hope this isn’t a sign of the government’s approach to the long negotiations to come.”
If you meant Tim Farron, I'm unsurprised that he wouldn't have the stomach to defend British territory. The Falklands would have been handed to the Argies on a plate if he'd been in charge - snivelling little shit. There's no doubt that the EU made a blatant attempt to be provocative towards the UK over Gibraltar.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on April 02, 2017, 17:30:04 PM
Gibraltar is provocative enough for Spain, do you really think going to war with Spain is in any way a sensible option? Or as Michael Howard so eloquently put it "another Spanish speaking country"!!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on April 02, 2017, 19:37:10 PM
WTF?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/02/britains-navy-far-weaker-falklands-could-still-cripple-spain/
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on April 02, 2017, 19:58:48 PM
Rear Admiral Perry from the above article.

"We could cripple Spain in the medium term and I think the Americans would probably support us too. Spain should learn from history that it is never worth taking us on and that we could still singe the King of Spain’s beard”

We've got a difficult enough task negotiating post Brexit deals, these people are truly mad.


The way its looking the best bet might be to sell Gibraltar to the Spanish or accept a barter deal for tomatoes and Chiorizo.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 02, 2017, 20:37:01 PM
Gibraltar is provocative enough for Spain, do you really think going to war with Spain is in any way a sensible option? Or as Michael Howard so eloquently put it "another Spanish speaking country"!!
If any country attempted to take British territory by force of course the correct response would be a military one. That's hardly controversial.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 02, 2017, 20:48:20 PM
If any country attempted to take British territory by force of course the correct response would be a military one. That's hardly controversial.
Did anyone in Europe suggest this a possibility?

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on April 02, 2017, 21:51:07 PM
Whilst they still have Ceuta and Melilla Spain - and the EU - should keep their traps shut.
Yes, there will be certain things to iron out, but being as the Spaniards have acted like complete and utter c***s towards Gibraltar whilst both they and us have been part of the EU it's time they showed some decorum.
I suppose we could always start funding Catalonian separatists and with a stench of rank hypocrisy fund ETA, but hey, it's politics :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 02, 2017, 22:34:32 PM
Quote from Tim Fallon after Michael Howard suggested the PM may go to war over Gibraltar.

 “It is unbelievable that within a week of triggering article 50 there are Conservatives already discussing potential wars with our European neighbours.

“In only a few days the Conservative right are turning long term allies into potential enemies. I hope this isn’t a sign of the government’s approach to the long negotiations to come.”

Classic Farron - we didn't start this ridiculous confrontation over Gibraltar of course but he will always, always blame his own country first, while snivelling on his knees at the feet of foreigners.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 02, 2017, 22:50:08 PM
Rear Admiral Perry from the above article.

"We could cripple Spain in the medium term and I think the Americans would probably support us too. Spain should learn from history that it is never worth taking us on and that we could still singe the King of Spain’s beard"

Rear Admiral Parry was Lieutenant Chris Parry during the Falklands War - weapons officer aboard the Wessex III helicopter that took out the ARA Santa Fe with depth charges off South Georgia.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 02, 2017, 22:59:11 PM
It's really baffling why an increasing number of British people actually dislike their own country whilst an increasing number of non-British people are desperate to make it their home.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 02, 2017, 23:27:16 PM
Winning hand?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/0/eu-verge-abyss-theresa-may-has-winning-hand-must-go/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/0/eu-verge-abyss-theresa-may-has-winning-hand-must-go/)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 02, 2017, 23:34:01 PM
This storm in a tea cup reminds me of the Harry Enfield and Paul Whitehouse characters having imaginary fights with celebrities while sitting in the pub.


"And if they come over here and say that Gibraltar is Spanish, I'll say OI Rajoy, NOOO! Gibraltar is BRITISH etc, etc, etc"
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 02, 2017, 23:41:26 PM
This storm in a tea cup reminds me of the Harry Enfield and Paul Whitehouse characters having imaginary fights with celebrities while sitting in the pub.


"And if they come over here and say that Gibraltar is Spanish, I'll say OI Rajoy, NOOO! Gibraltar is BRITISH etc, etc, etc"
Yes Farron has got himself unnecessarily worked up about the perfectly sensible comments of a more serious politician.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 02, 2017, 23:54:59 PM
Yes Farron has got himself unnecessarily worked up about the perfectly sensible comments of a more serious politician.


Oh David, Howard invoking the Falklands Spirit makes him the joker in all this. As far from serious as you can get.


Meanwhile The Observer is as ever bang on the  button...


https://www.theguardian.com/global/2017/apr/01/brexit-may-merkel-eu-talks-davis?CMP=fb_gu
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 03, 2017, 00:34:17 AM

Oh David, Howard invoking the Falklands Spirit makes him the joker in all this. As far from serious as you can get.


Meanwhile The Observer is as ever bang on the  button...


https://www.theguardian.com/global/2017/apr/01/brexit-may-merkel-eu-talks-davis?CMP=fb_gu (https://www.theguardian.com/global/2017/apr/01/brexit-may-merkel-eu-talks-davis?CMP=fb_gu)
Another 'Britain-bashing' Remoaner spouting the same, angry, bitter rhetoric. I'm quite happy for people to hold these views but please stop predicting the future with such certainty - "a damaging, historic error that will haunt this country for decades". Really? Where do these people buy their crystal balls from? No criticism of Spain for trying to take advantage just blame 'incompetent' Boris for not seeing it coming. He may be incompetent but perhaps he just miscalculated the EU's ability to act honourably. That could turn out to be an historic error.

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 03, 2017, 01:02:17 AM
Oh David, Howard invoking the Falklands Spirit makes him the joker in all this. As far from serious as you can get.


Not at all; the Falklands Conflict started because the Argentines grew frustrated with lack of progress, from their point of view, of talks over sovereignty. Absolutely a timely and statesmanlike act, unlike Farron's mincing cowardice.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 03, 2017, 01:12:36 AM

Meanwhile The Observer is as ever bang on the  button...

https://www.theguardian.com/global/2017/apr/01/brexit-may-merkel-eu-talks-davis?CMP=fb_gu (https://www.theguardian.com/global/2017/apr/01/brexit-may-merkel-eu-talks-davis?CMP=fb_gu)

Utterly laughable piece; the worst sort of gutter journalism. Just read this:

It has become crystal clear that not only will the EU set the agenda for the exit talks, it will also control their pace, parameters and conclusions – or else, no deal at all. It will be the EU, not Britain, that decides when “sufficient progress” has been made to allow talks on trade to commence. It will be the EU that sets the terms governing the transition needed to avoid the cliff edge so feared by business. And it will be the EU that decides whether Britain has paid its dues. Nobody in last year’s Leave campaign talked about a leaving bill of up to £50bn. They will have to now if they want to make progress.

Sheer, grovelling, anti-British cowardice. It overlooks, conveniently, because the ignorant, craven filth at the Observer couldn't bear to support their own country, that Britain has cards to play in these negotiations. We do not simply have to let them dictate to us. In the end, we don't even need to have a deal with them at all, something some of the EU countries know will greatly be to their detriment. And how's this for hypocrisy?

After months of mostly placatory, regretful statements, the EU is talking tough. Who can blame them? They want to protect themselves and their citizens.

Of course, protecting British interests and citizens in similar tough terms is "unsavoury" two paragraphs above, and "fanatical" three paragraphs above.

These people would have published no end of "sorry, Mr Hitler won't stand for that" articles in the 1930s.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 03, 2017, 07:16:58 AM
Indeed.
"Come on in Mr Hitler. Sit down by the fire whilst I make you a nice cup to tea and then we'll take a look at your papers and you can tell me where to sign them"
An approach Farron and co would have been proud of.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 03, 2017, 07:32:28 AM
Malcolm invokes the Falklands and you've both somehow managed to Trump him with Hitler! Fair play!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 03, 2017, 19:17:42 PM


https://www.ft.com/content/692768f4-17a3-11e7-a53d-df09f373be87

"Central banks are dumping euros amid concerns over political instability, weak growth and the European Central Bank’s negative interest rate policy — and favour sterling as a long-term, stable alternative."
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Richard_2112 on April 03, 2017, 22:33:47 PM
Indeed.
"Come on in Mr Hitler. Sit down by the fire whilst I make you a nice cup to tea and then we'll take a look at your papers and you can tell me where to sign them"
An approach Farron and co would have been proud of.
And that right there is pretty much everything wrong with Tory Leavers like you and Slim. Hate to break the reality to you but we weren't at war with the EU before the referendum, nor were we under some sort of tyrannical dictatorship. If you can name for me one act of oppression the EU imposed on us that couldn't have been directly vetoed by our own sovereign government I will start to back Brexit 100% - until then I'm going to remain very pessimistic about the whole fiasco.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 03, 2017, 23:07:31 PM
And that right there is pretty much everything wrong with Tory Leavers like you and Slim. Hate to break the reality to you but we weren't at war with the EU before the referendum, nor were we under some sort of tyrannical dictatorship. If you can name for me one act of oppression the EU imposed on us that couldn't have been directly vetoed by our own sovereign government I will start to back Brexit 100% - until then I'm going to remain very pessimistic about the whole fiasco.
Think you've got the wrong end of the stick there. The analogy was purely to reinforce my opinion that Farron is a craven little weasel who could never be relied on to stand up for Britain's interests by sanctioning military intervention if needed.
Thanks for the lesson in European politics, anyway.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on April 03, 2017, 23:16:51 PM
What "lesson" was that then?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 03, 2017, 23:31:08 PM
What "lesson" was that then?
1) We weren't at war with the EU before the referendum
2) We were not under some sort of tyrannical dictatorship
I appreciate being put right on those two points, at least.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 04, 2017, 00:25:44 AM
And that right there is pretty much everything wrong with Tory Leavers like you and Slim. Hate to break the reality to you but we weren't at war with the EU before the referendum, nor were we under some sort of tyrannical dictatorship. If you can name for me one act of oppression the EU imposed on us that couldn't have been directly vetoed by our own sovereign government I will start to back Brexit 100% - until then I'm going to remain very pessimistic about the whole fiasco.

Ah Richard - I hate instantly to negate the whole point of your post, but we weren't at war with Hitler until 1939, either.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on April 04, 2017, 00:39:55 AM
I guess we all live in alternate versions of reality.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 04, 2017, 12:21:26 PM
Yes, that's true. There are though some truths which don't budge no matter what your perspective is on them, but there aren't many of those in politics.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on April 04, 2017, 15:10:16 PM
More good news, let's hope this one doesn't become a reality

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/04/uk-jobs-merkel-juncker-euro-clearing-eu-manfred-weber-brexit
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 04, 2017, 15:58:17 PM
More good news, let's hope this one doesn't become a reality

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/04/uk-jobs-merkel-juncker-euro-clearing-eu-manfred-weber-brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/04/uk-jobs-merkel-juncker-euro-clearing-eu-manfred-weber-brexit)
“EU citizens decide on their own money,”
Unless they are Greek
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on April 04, 2017, 21:51:04 PM
More good news, let's hope this one doesn't become a reality

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/04/uk-jobs-merkel-juncker-euro-clearing-eu-manfred-weber-brexit
What happens though if the Euro goes tits up? It's not an impossibility.
Where will these jobs be squeezed in in Europe? Paris and Frankfurt are both ranked in the high 20s of the World's financial services cities.

All this highlights the big problems of the EU, it finds it hard to look beyond its own little zone, yet it's a global economy out there. What really big trade deals has it managed to sort? Not a fat lot, it wants to have ever closer union and yet too many competing vested interests are able to poke their noses into things and either stop things happening or make things into a long-winded drawn out process with too many compromises.

The remoaners are always banging on about the Brexiteers lack of contingency planning, but exactly what have they got planned for the collapse of the EU project? Now that is more likely to lead to wars than Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on April 04, 2017, 23:35:33 PM
The Euro will only fail if Le Pen/Putin strike lucky I guess... I suspect if she fails then the currency will rebound.

It's a Brexiteers myth that Remainers want Brexit to fail and will make sure it happens, it's just that most Remainers cannot see anything but a downside, besides if you were going to damage the UK you would probably go "well the Union looks fecked, the car industry, high tech, any ideas?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 05, 2017, 07:18:00 AM
The Euro will only fail if Le Pen/Putin strike lucky I guess... I suspect if she fails then the currency will rebound.

'Luck' is not involved in the failure of the euro. Tying a number of vastly disparate economies to a single currency was foolish. Nothing represents the EU's blind devotion to their federalist dogma better.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on April 05, 2017, 08:34:26 AM
Accuse me of fear mongering and lack of confidence and belief in the ability of British Industry (sniggers....stop laughing at the back there!) and the political establishment to forge a brave and bright new shiny, British Economic future if you like but, as much as I see the huge flaws and drawbacks of unfettered Federalism and abhor the lack of accountability, potential for economic piracy, vampirism and the sheer waste of Brussels, I can't help believing (despite all that) that a reformed European Union with the UK at the negotiating table, influencing policy and shaping the future offered us the best hope of a more secure, peaceful and prosperous Europe and UK in the long term.

If the EU project fails in the near future it won't just be because of the Brexit but the UK will take a huge amount of the blame for it, whether its justified or not. Regardless of whether that happens or not, English companies will struggle to find viable markets within Europe due to trade tariffs and layers of bureaucracy and red tape. England and English people are and will be resented throughout central Europe and you can bet your bottom pound sterling that the Fright Wing Media will ensure that tensions are ramped up, old rivalries are rekindled and all manner of long standing cultural, social and political prejudices and stereotypes will be dusted down, brushed up and reinforced.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 05, 2017, 09:34:30 AM
'Luck' is not involved in the failure of the euro. Tying a number of vastly disparate economies to a single currency was foolish. Nothing represents the EU's blind devotion to their federalist dogma better.


Any more disparate than a farming community in Snowdonia or a fishing port in Co Down and the City of London ? Perhaps the UK should split too?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 05, 2017, 09:55:54 AM
I can't see a farming community in Snowdonia wanting to mint their own currency and go it alone, somehow.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on April 13, 2017, 13:22:25 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/04/11/world/europe/uk-london-brexit.html
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 14, 2017, 08:20:24 AM
It's just more of the same isn't it? For every one of those there's one of these:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/06/why-london-will-be-an-economic-powerhouse-after-brexit/

Nice to see that first image though, just round the corner from my first job in London at Sakura Bank.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 14, 2017, 09:46:24 AM

That Telegraph piece says the research was carried out "well before" the referendum.  What happened to  it ? Did it get lost behind the sofa or something.  Very odd.

I Thought the NY times article was presented beautifully


Meanwhile the Irish believe that the UK brexit team are beginning to realise that Brexit will prove to be "an act of great self harm"...


http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-government-realises-brexit-is-a-mistake-official-says-1.3048046 (http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-government-realises-brexit-is-a-mistake-official-says-1.3048046)


Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on April 14, 2017, 12:28:09 PM
there'll be a GE before we leave I'm certain
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 14, 2017, 15:18:16 PM
there'll be a GE before we leave I'm certain
Increased Tory majority then, I'll wager
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 14, 2017, 15:34:38 PM
there'll be a GE before we leave I'm certain

Brexit is already assured, an early election would make it doubly so. Especially if we get the boundary changes in first.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 14, 2017, 15:41:16 PM
That Telegraph piece says the research was carried out "well before" the referendum.  What happened to  it ? Did it get lost behind the sofa or something.  Very odd.

I Thought the NY times article was presented beautifully

Meanwhile the Irish believe that the UK brexit team are beginning to realise that Brexit will prove to be "an act of great self harm"...

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-government-realises-brexit-is-a-mistake-official-says-1.3048046 (http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-government-realises-brexit-is-a-mistake-official-says-1.3048046)

Though I'm sure there are elements of the UK government that would have preferred to remain, this is in essence yet more of the same Private Fraseresque doom-mongering. I think it will be instructive and entertaining to revisit these old pieces in a few years' time.

Over my lifetime, my own judgement with respect to politics has tended to be vindicated handsomely time and again, while the judgement of those who have disagreed with me emphatically, especially on the Left, has been shown wanting.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 14, 2017, 15:57:43 PM
Though I'm sure there are elements of the UK government that would have preferred to remain, this is in essence yet more of the same Private Fraseresque doom-mongering. I think it will be instructive and entertaining to revisit these old pieces in a few years' time.

Over my lifetime, my own judgement with respect to politics has tended to be vindicated handsomely time and again, while the judgement of those who have disagreed with me emphatically, especially on the Left, has been shown wanting.


That must be very comforting. I wish I could say the same about my beliefs. But that will never stop arguing with what I believe to be right and wrong.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 16, 2017, 00:05:33 AM

That must be very comforting. I wish I could say the same about my beliefs. But that will never stop arguing with what I believe to be right and wrong.

Would be good though if you'd be open-minded enough to moderate or modify your beliefs when they're shown to be wrong.

Looks like some people have changed their mind:

 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/15/support-brexit-hits-five-month-high-55-per-cent-uk-population/

Good for them.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 16, 2017, 08:39:37 AM
Would be good though if you'd be open-minded enough to moderate or modify your beliefs when they're shown to be wrong.


You may have been making a general point. In terms of Brexit, I think a lot of people will be doggedly persistent in maintaining their own positions long after the event. I say this because it will be hard to define success, for a lot of Remainers anyway. There will always be an element of 'what if' in terms of maintaining that, within the EU, we would have been equally or more successful. Of course, failure will be easier to judge (in economic terms) but Brexiteers will hold on to the 'self-determination' argument regardless.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 16, 2017, 09:49:25 AM
Would be good though if you'd be open-minded enough to moderate or modify your beliefs when they're shown to be wrong.

Looks like some people have changed their mind:

 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/15/support-brexit-hits-five-month-high-55-per-cent-uk-population/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/15/support-brexit-hits-five-month-high-55-per-cent-uk-population/)

Good for them.


If that were to happen I would. So far nothing has happened to make me believe that the UK Government has done anything but create huge damage to the country for petty internal political reasons
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on April 16, 2017, 12:23:58 PM
I'm speaking only for myself here, but I suspect it may well be a position held by many other Remain voters....I might have been able to come to terms with the Brexit vote if it had been a legitimate mandate given by the majority; but we all know that it was a referendum that was conceived and delivered in gross ignorance and bad conscience, the full consequences of which were never set out, and indeed could never have been known without the benefit of a working Crystal Ball! For the then PM to expect and enable the electorate to take such a monumental gamble with the direct futures of 4 Nations merely in order to placate his own Right wing backbenchers and attempt to emasculate UKIP was the act of a coward, a traitor and a Fool whose fortune and future was already secured and innoculated against the far reaching, negative, damaging and potentially devastating consequences inherent in the Brexit vote. So he fell on his sword...Boo fecking hoo! So what?! Is he really any less wealthy now than he was picking up a PMs salary? What a complete and utter Jeremy Hunt!


I understand the arguement of those Remain voters who now say; "lets get on with it, negotiate the best terms and make the best of it" because it seems we have no choice, and to do something 'positive' is better than just being bitter and wringing your hands; but, do you really think PMA and a 'can do attitude' will save the UK economies from the changed post EEU realities that will dominate and dictate how we Trade, and with whom, or protect Sterling from vultures like Saros?!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 16, 2017, 13:51:56 PM
I'm speaking only for myself here, but I suspect it may well be a position held by many other Remain voters....I might have been able to come to terms with the Brexit vote if it had been a legitimate mandate given by the majority; but we all know that it was a referendum that was conceived and delivered in gross ignorance and bad conscience

We really don't know that; indeed I'm certain that it wasn't. Both sides had months to make their case. Whether or not it was actually the best decision, it has nonetheless delivered an utterly legitimate mandate. And in any case the remoaning has not stopped for a second since the result came in and if the polls are to be believed, the majority still wish to leave the EU.

But you put it quite well yourself - the Prime Minister enabled the electorate to take what you see as a gamble. They didn't have to, they were warned by the leaderships of three of the four main parties that it was an unwarranted gamble, but they (not the UK government, as Dom claims) chose to take that step - and we are surely entitled to one say every four decades or so in who governs us.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on April 16, 2017, 18:06:49 PM
I'm speaking only for myself here, but I suspect it may well be a position held by many other Remain voters....I might have been able to come to terms with the Brexit vote if it had been a legitimate mandate given by the majority; but we all know that it was a referendum that was conceived and delivered in gross ignorance and bad conscience, the full consequences of which were never set out, and indeed could never have been known without the benefit of a working Crystal Ball! For the then PM to expect and enable the electorate to take such a monumental gamble with the direct futures of 4 Nations merely in order to placate his own Right wing backbenchers and attempt to emasculate UKIP was the act of a coward, a traitor and a Fool whose fortune and future was already secured and innoculated against the far reaching, negative, damaging and potentially devastating consequences inherent in the Brexit vote. So he fell on his sword...Boo fecking hoo! So what?! Is he really any less wealthy now than he was picking up a PMs salary? What a complete and utter Jeremy Hunt!


I understand the arguement of those Remain voters who now say; "lets get on with it, negotiate the best terms and make the best of it" because it seems we have no choice, and to do something 'positive' is better than just being bitter and wringing your hands; but, do you really think PMA and a 'can do attitude' will save the UK economies from the changed post EEU realities that will dominate and dictate how we Trade, and with whom, or protect Sterling from vultures like Saros?!
It was a referendum conceived by someone - a supposed hated Conservative - who fully thought that the referendum would be to stay. Let's face it, the population of the UK has been promised referendums on Europe for years by both sides of the political spectrum. It was given one and it voted out. BLiar copped out of a referendum because the closer union got renamed the Lisbon treaty. Vast swathes of the British people vote the same way in general elections on both the left and right without any thought as to what is actually best for the country. Those to the right are supposed to be Little Englanders who will hate Europe come what may, those on the left who will vote for a dead pig with a red rosette pinned to it have been so marginalised by their Labour party leaders that they decided to vote to leave.

BUT no matter what, we can and will still trade with Europe, no matter what. We can and still trade with the rest of the world no matter what. Maybe even with better terms than the EU could negotiate, because the EU is not about trade in the world, it is about the creation of a European superstate and bugger the rest of the world. What happened to Rome? What happened to the British Empire? What happened to the USSR? They all fell apart and in ever more rapid time periods.

Oh, and:

SAROS

SAROS

SAROS
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 16, 2017, 19:26:57 PM
Exellent analysis going through what the UK is to face as it seeks its own trade deals


https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/bracing-ourselves-brexit
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on April 16, 2017, 22:00:33 PM
Exellent analysis going through what the UK is to face as it seeks its own trade deals


https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/bracing-ourselves-brexit (https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/bracing-ourselves-brexit)

Great article, shame this couldn't have been simplified an sold during the vote. I really think that despite TM's recent statement "Britain is coming together" i get a feeling that the true impact is beginning to dawn on the population as a whole, its hugely worrying.

Yes we can still trade with Europe but we will trade less and margins will be eroded.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 16, 2017, 22:11:55 PM
Great article, shame this couldn't have been simplified an sold during the vote. I really think that despite TM's recent statement "Britain is coming together" i get a feeling that the true impact is beginning to dawn on the population as a whole, its hugely worrying.

I have the impression that what's begun to dawn on the population as a whole is that the fear and gloom still being peddled by the losers is bogus.

As for the supposed excellence of Simon Fraser's piece - I think that's something that remains to be proven.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 17, 2017, 10:13:13 AM
Ahh, so it's the have your cake and eat it Brexit!...


https://www.ft.com/content/72ead180-229a-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 17, 2017, 10:55:41 AM
There's a paywall on that one, unfortunately.

Or perhaps it's not that unfortunate. Anyway I think it's clear that a number of journalists and other media figures are still upset about leaving the EU.

I wouldn't, myself, be too sceptical about the prospect of having our cake and eating it - we are after all one of the world's largest and most powerful economies, and what remains of the EU cannot afford to mess us about in the name of injured pride.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on April 18, 2017, 11:32:27 AM
there'll be a GE before we leave I'm certain


What do I know?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 18, 2017, 11:52:02 AM

What do I know?


Good call!


The FT article was quoting David Davis believing that the EU should allow the European Banking and Medecines agencies to remain in London. Cuckoo!


Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 18, 2017, 11:53:45 AM
You weren't wrong and I confess I'm surprised. I wanted the boundary changes first.

However it looks like the end of the Labour Party. Yes it's opportunist but boundary changes or no, we are simply going to eviscerate the Labour Party.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on April 18, 2017, 14:28:54 PM
Not sure what Labour will do..... try to hold on to their safe seats? Lib Dems will probably increase their vote and seats in the SW.....Scotland will remain SNP dominated, NI another mess?

Wonder what Putin thinks?

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on April 18, 2017, 20:24:36 PM
Not sure what Labour will do..... try to hold on to their safe seats? Lib Dems will probably increase their vote and seats in the SW.....Scotland will remain SNP dominated, NI another mess?

Wonder what Putin thinks?

Lib Dems won't gain enough to make a difference....but I suspect that they will gain in their traditional areas....what price Danny What'shisname & Vince Somethingorother making a comeback...

Labour will probably lose more seats in the North. The end for Corbyn

I suspect that the SNP won't do as well this time round 9how could they ?), but will still take the vast majority in Scotland

Tory majority of 30+


Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on April 18, 2017, 20:47:30 PM
Time for a lib/lab pact?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 18, 2017, 21:08:16 PM
Time for a lib/lab pact?

The last one wasn't exactly a success, but they aren't going to get a majority of seats between them unless there's a monumental banana skin lurking somewhere out there.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 18, 2017, 23:39:45 PM
Take heart, remainers - one possible motive for the General Election discussed on Newsnight just now is that Theresa needs a bigger majority to get a softer Brexit past her own backbenchers.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 19, 2017, 00:19:03 AM
Take heart, remainers - one possible motive for the General Election discussed on Newsnight just now is that Theresa needs a bigger majority to get a softer Brexit past her own backbenchers.
Watched that too, and that seems a fairly plausible reason for calling a GE. Theresa was a Remainer after all and is unlikely to be fully supportive of the approach favoured by some of her backbencher. A bit disappointing but a shrewd move from Mrs May. A fascinating political puzzle for Labour who are more likely to get what they want from Brexit by losing more seats.
Of course, that becomes a moot point if, as Paul Mason believes, Corbyn leads Labour to victory!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 19, 2017, 10:55:59 AM
After yesterday's GE announcement the IMF upgraded the UK's growth forecast for 2017 to 2% (from 1.5%). So it's a thumbs up from them at least for a May Brexit. I'm sure Christine Lagarde said Brexit would be hugely damaging to the UK economy a couple of months ago.
Experts or overpaid idiots?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on April 19, 2017, 11:37:03 AM
This is a general question to everybody reading and contributing to this thread.


Set aside the political tribalism for a minute or two. At a micro level, if at some point it becomes clear that Brexit is going be a major, long term disaster for the UK economy....could YOU survive it? Do you have a contingency plan, an exit strategy or other options available to you and your family to get through it or would you move somewhere else?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on April 19, 2017, 11:57:53 AM
Exellent analysis going through what the UK is to face as it seeks its own trade deals


https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/bracing-ourselves-brexit (https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/bracing-ourselves-brexit)


Thanks Dom....good find!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 19, 2017, 15:12:09 PM
This is a general question to everybody reading and contributing to this thread.


Set aside the political tribalism for a minute or two. At a micro level, if at some point it becomes clear that Brexit is going be a major, long term disaster for the UK economy....could YOU survive it? Do you have a contingency plan, an exit strategy or other options available to you and your family to get through it or would you move somewhere else?

Not at the moment, but I didn't have one for the point at which it might have become clear that continued membership of the EU was going to be a major, long term disaster for the UK economy either.

I believe the latter was more likely, but either was/is possible logically.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 19, 2017, 17:02:26 PM
Not at the moment, but I didn't have one for the point at which it might have become clear that continued membership of the EU was going to be a major, long term disaster for the UK economy either.

I believe the latter was more likely, but either was/is possible logically.
Ditto
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on April 19, 2017, 18:00:50 PM
This is a general question to everybody reading and contributing to this thread.


Set aside the political tribalism for a minute or two. At a micro level, if at some point it becomes clear that Brexit is going be a major, long term disaster for the UK economy....could YOU survive it? Do you have a contingency plan, an exit strategy or other options available to you and your family to get through it or would you move somewhere else?


We could bail if required and move elsewhere in Europe if allowed,assuming we were able to sell the house. My main concern is the future of my two daughters, one in uni and one at college, their futures have been restricted by little England.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on April 19, 2017, 20:50:29 PM
My main concern is the future of my two daughters, one in uni and one at college, their futures have been restricted by little England.
Have they heck as like. If they want to make their futures outside of the UK they can. It may be a little harder, but there is nothing to stop them.
People I went to school with have made their futures in the USA, Australia and Canada. Don't think we've ever been part of an incipient super state with complete freedom of movement with any of those countries, nobody I went to school with has moved into Europe.

In fact if they've been educated in the UK they should have the decency to put that education to good use in the UK. Just saying.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 19, 2017, 21:15:27 PM
In my time I've been offered jobs in Hong Kong, Toronto, Tokyo and New York - I don't believe any of these had anything to do with being a EU citizen.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on April 19, 2017, 21:55:09 PM

Set aside the political tribalism for a minute or two. At a micro level, if at some point it becomes clear that Brexit is going be a major, long term disaster for the UK economy....could YOU survive it? Do you have a contingency plan, an exit strategy or other options available to you and your family to get through it or would you move somewhere else?
1. It  won't be a major disaster. It could lead to a lessening of Economic growth, but we've weathered the last few years, we'll get through it again.
2. I should be able to survive it.
3. Who needs an exit strategy. We're the 5th or 6th largest economy in the World. We'll be fine.
4. No matter what, the UK is still the best place in the world to live. Geologically stable. not too warm, not too cold, beautiful scenery. I'm stopping.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on April 19, 2017, 22:36:54 PM
Considering my options... could move to Scotland or mainland Europe and fly home to work within the UK
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 19, 2017, 22:44:44 PM
4. No matter what, the UK is still the best place in the world to live. Geologically stable. not too warm, not too cold, beautiful scenery. I'm stopping.

Yes. No active volcanoes, very few dangerous weather events, no scary spiders, very few venomous snakes, no bears, no wolves, no crocodiles or alligators and very soon, no Labour Party.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 19, 2017, 22:55:16 PM
Considering my options... could move to Scotland or mainland Europe and fly home to work within the UK

Well - for Scotland to be a viable option it seems to me that you need all of the following to happen:

1. Scotland will vote for independence from the UK, if / when it's granted a referendum
2. Scotland will gain membership of the EU or of the EU single market
3. Item 2. above will make up for Scotland losing membership of the UK single market
4. Scotland's inevitably hard-left government won't tank its economy

Good luck with those!

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on April 20, 2017, 07:49:38 AM
thanks for the career advice, I suspect Scotland's prospects might be much brighter than many of our leaders would have us believe.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on April 20, 2017, 19:27:46 PM
That's nice to know, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/20/european-parliament-will-welcome-britain-back-if-voters-veto-brexit
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 20, 2017, 19:30:09 PM
I think there'll be a lot of Scots preparing an escape south of the border if 1. happens, and they won't want to hang around long to find out about 2. 3. & 4. And I do think we should welcome them if they can find jobs here.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 20, 2017, 19:33:01 PM
That's nice to know, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/20/european-parliament-will-welcome-britain-back-if-voters-veto-brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/20/european-parliament-will-welcome-britain-back-if-voters-veto-brexit)

I somehow doubt that any of the parties will have a return to EU membership in its manifesto - well possibly the Greens, but even the Lib Dims are paying lip service to the referendum result at the moment, albeit not in its proper spirit.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on April 20, 2017, 23:15:38 PM
That's nice to know, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/20/european-parliament-will-welcome-britain-back-if-voters-veto-brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/20/european-parliament-will-welcome-britain-back-if-voters-veto-brexit)
I see the Guardian is still holding out the begging bowl. It might be more successful if it told readers something they don't already know.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on April 20, 2017, 23:58:31 PM
I see the Guardian is still holding out the begging bowl. It might be more successful if it told readers something they don't already know.

Yes.  And some balance to the relentless turd-deluge of regressive hand-wringing.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 21, 2017, 12:53:54 PM
John Redwood - dictionary definition of deluded (or clueless perhaps his name has a double meaning)


Check out @johnredwood's Tweet: https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/855363138820206592?s=09
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 21, 2017, 13:14:01 PM
What's the "deluded" aspect,exactly, Dom? You seem to be saying that either:

1. You have to buy German or French cars, or that

2. There is not a good range of prices, models, specifications and/or prices from UK car factories.

Which of the above? Or both?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 21, 2017, 13:16:44 PM
This is the preceding tweet, and the context in which the tweet that Dom has linked for us is intended:

(http://truth.justdied.com/images/rwtweet.png)

It's an excellent and rather apt point, isn't it?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on April 21, 2017, 15:46:04 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/brexit_sham/status/855373381860044800/photo/1 (https://mobile.twitter.com/brexit_sham/status/855373381860044800/photo/1)


As repeatedly asked by Redwood's followers on Twitter; How many UK based and owned car manufacturers produce and assemble cars (in the UK) built with UK parts?
And Im not talking about hand built roadsters or high end sports cars

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 21, 2017, 16:32:04 PM
This is the preceding tweet, and the context in which the tweet that Dom has linked for us is intended:

(http://truth.justdied.com/images/rwtweet.png)

It's an excellent and rather apt point, isn't it?


To answer that point in isolation the foolish party here was the UK in choosing to leave the EU  and it's government in interpreting the vote as meaning the country had to leave the single market and the Customs union.


But Bisto answered the other part to this.  The fact that the UK car industry is so dependent on European manufacturers for parts and that WTO tariffs would cripple the way that industry works at the moment
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 21, 2017, 16:50:10 PM
from the FT


 https://www.ft.com/content/c397f174-9205-11e6-a72e-b428cb934b78 (https://www.ft.com/content/c397f174-9205-11e6-a72e-b428cb934b78)

 Before the new Bentley SUV purrs away from the showroom, its bumper will have already travelled 2,200 miles, crossing the English Channel three times. The luxury carmaker is owned by Volkswagen but based in Crewe in northern England, where VW invested heavily to upgrade a factory that dates from the second world war. But while the final assembly of each Bentley remains in Britain, the components that make up the cars are drawn from across the world and often zigzag back and forth between factories in the UK and the continent before arriving at Crewe. That leaves Bentley’s supply chain, in common with that of almost every other car manufacturer in Britain, at risk of being hit by tariffs if Britain leaves the European single market. Bumpers for some Bentley Bentaygas, for example, are made in Europe but then sent to Crewe for inspection before then going to Germany for specialist painting. After that, they return to the UK for final assembly.


(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.prod.s3.amazonaws.com%2F8e98e392-9454-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582?source=next&fit=scale-down&width=600)



Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on April 22, 2017, 11:28:30 AM
More flip flop from the Donald

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/donald-trump-britain-back-queue-trade-deal-eu-angela-merkel-brexit-a7696376.html
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 22, 2017, 15:24:30 PM
More flip flop from the Donald

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/donald-trump-britain-back-queue-trade-deal-eu-angela-merkel-brexit-a7696376.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/donald-trump-britain-back-queue-trade-deal-eu-angela-merkel-brexit-a7696376.html)


Not a big surprise really considering the relative size of the economies. Common sense seems to work even  for Trump sometimes.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on April 22, 2017, 16:28:34 PM





Looks like leaving the EU (and the ECJ) is going to be pretty tricky.


Will the UK ever be properly rid?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-ministers-invincible-ignorance-european-court-sir-david-edward-theresa-may-a7656826.html

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 23, 2017, 15:16:31 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/brexit_sham/status/855373381860044800/photo/1 (https://mobile.twitter.com/brexit_sham/status/855373381860044800/photo/1)


As repeatedly asked by Redwood's followers on Twitter; How many UK based and owned car manufacturers produce and assemble cars (in the UK) built with UK parts?
And Im not talking about hand built roadsters or high end sports cars

Yes, but John Redwood didn't refer to "UK-owned" manufacturers. The point that some parts are imported from abroad is a fair one, but the greatest part of the profit comes from the finished vehicle, reflecting the work and design, not this or that length of brake pipe or gearstick knob. In any case no UK-based manufacturer is dependent on Europe for these things. Steel can be imported from China, for example, as increasingly, it often is.

If it's no longer viable to send a Bentley to Germany for heat-treatment, they'll do it somewhere else! Perhaps even here, creating British jobs.

Redwood's point was widely misinterpreted of course, as the Left are prone to do.  He wasn't saying that everyone should go without European goods, just pointing out that they are in competition with UK-based goods in our domestic market.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on April 28, 2017, 17:42:06 PM
Lower than forecast growth figures today, fuelled by the rise in inflation and inverse rise in wage growth casing consumer unease...

At least the pound is making up some ground against the dollar
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 28, 2017, 19:39:11 PM
Noticed this tweet earlier today:

(http://truth.justdied.com/images/gdp_growth.png)

Suggesting that it's possibly not really bad news? Honestly not sure myself.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on April 28, 2017, 19:56:08 PM
And ONS figures frequently get revised - upwards. Personally, having been at times in the past in  charge of submitting figures to the ONS I'd take them with a big pinch of salt.
I took over from a bloke who'd been filling in out figures in incorrectly. I filled them in properly, the ONS got back to me saying it was going to have a big impact on GDP figures, I kept on filling them in incorrectly in future...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on April 29, 2017, 16:13:05 PM
So Europe is taking the expected firm stance to protect it's members interests, they suggest, correctly, that the Uk will not be better off outside the EU.

I'm Still searching for the benefits of Brexit .
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on April 29, 2017, 21:27:14 PM
I'm Still searching for the benefits of Brexit .
It may not come in your lifetime, but when the EUSSR splits up it'll be a bloodbath we're well out of.
If Scots want out of a truly successful union, what chance of all these disparate European countries sticking together in some delusional federal superstate?

Think of the grandchildren :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 29, 2017, 22:39:53 PM
So Europe is taking the expected firm stance to protect it's members interests, they suggest, correctly, that the Uk will not be better off outside the EU.

I'm Still searching for the benefits of Brexit .

We haven't actually left yet unfortunately, so your opinion that the UK will not be better off remains to be proven.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on April 29, 2017, 23:58:28 PM
I'm jusy not optimistic in truth, no sign of a sustainable strategy.... just hope?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on April 30, 2017, 00:00:23 AM
https://twitter.com/drphilhammond/status/858199223124320257
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on April 30, 2017, 00:53:23 AM
http://www.politico.eu/article/britains-brexit-denial/
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 30, 2017, 15:47:39 PM
https://twitter.com/drphilhammond/status/858199223124320257 (https://twitter.com/drphilhammond/status/858199223124320257)

Yes, there's a reason he was a failure as a Prime Minister. In the end rethinking the way the NHS is funded will be the best way we can support it. IDS, Boris and Michael Gove all understand that. Sir John, a considerably less capable politician than any of them, clearly doesn't.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on April 30, 2017, 15:57:10 PM
http://www.politico.eu/article/britains-brexit-denial/ (http://www.politico.eu/article/britains-brexit-denial/)

The point of this article and several others I've seen recently seems to be to stress that we can't have the advantages of being in the EU when we aren't in the EU. We've taken the decision that the disadvantages outweigh them, how can this be so difficult for the idiots that wrote this piece to understand? Perhaps it's because they're American and German.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on May 01, 2017, 08:39:42 AM
A no-deal scenario is looking increasingly likely

https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/858810953353367552
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on May 01, 2017, 09:24:07 AM
A no-deal scenario is looking increasingly likely

https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/858810953353367552 (https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/858810953353367552)


It's still the early stages of course but it would seem that May and her team are handlingthese negotiations incredibly badly. Doesn't bode well.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on May 01, 2017, 09:31:38 AM
I hope someone has started to think about what we'll spend all the incoming tariff revenues on. Rather large sums involved.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on May 01, 2017, 09:34:00 AM

It's still the early stages of course but it would seem that May and her team are handling these negotiations incredibly badly. Doesn't bode well.

I don't have that impression myself. Worth considering that the reason this leak has taken place is to embarrass the UK government, and for that reason it would be foolish to consider the account provided of the meeting as objective or realistic.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on May 01, 2017, 10:09:18 AM
I don't have that impression myself. Worth considering that the reason this leak has taken place is to embarrass the UK government, and for that reason it would be foolish to consider the account provided of the meeting as objective or realistic.


The UK government is not above leaking. We should shortly get another leak from the UK perspective if the reality was very different.


Every time these meetings happen 27 member States will be briefed. Leaks are inevitable so May and co should cop on.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on May 01, 2017, 11:01:21 AM
I hope someone has started to think about what we'll spend all the incoming tariff revenues on. Rather large sums involved.

Offsetting some of the outbound tariffs that we'll need to pay...I believe that we're still huge net importers rather than exporters...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on May 01, 2017, 13:08:47 PM

The UK government is not above leaking.

Could you cite an example of the UK government leaking details of a private meeting attended by the Prime Minister?

You can't blame the Europrats for taking a tough stance at the outset, but so will we - and realistically they won't get all of their demands. I suspect Theresa delivered a few home truths to Juncker, and that's where this butthurt reaction has come from.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on May 01, 2017, 13:36:22 PM
I hope someone has started to think about what we'll spend all the incoming tariff revenues on. Rather large sums involved.


Subsidising the UK manufacturing industry during its rapid but inevitable decline. Our raw materials will cost more due to import tariffs and exchange rates impacting on  our exports that will cost customers more due to the higher cost of imports and tariffs on the outgoing exports.
Was this mentioned bus side?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on May 01, 2017, 13:42:43 PM
Could you cite an example of the UK government leaking details of a private meeting attended by the Prime Minister?

You can't blame the Europrats for taking a tough stance at the outset, but so will we - and realistically they won't get all of their demands. I suspect Theresa delivered a few home truths to Juncker, and that's where this butthurt reaction has come from.

not sure a tough stance is the real issue here but a lack of understanding of the issues from the UK side.


as to leaks

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/04/government-memo-brexit-leaks-leaked-cabinet-secretary (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/04/government-memo-brexit-leaks-leaked-cabinet-secretary)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on May 01, 2017, 15:41:27 PM
not sure a tough stance is the real issue here but a lack of understanding of the issues from the UK side.





that's how I read it too, most think that she's not been briefed by her team (who want a hard exit) - once re-elected I suspect a few heads will roll?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on May 01, 2017, 19:48:24 PM
The May delusion summed up in a short read  https://medium.com/@stewartwood6887/theresa-mays-mistaken-precedent-for-a-brexit-based-on-cherry-picking-1e2e6a3b9985

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on May 01, 2017, 20:21:00 PM
Until negotiations have been completed, nobody knows what can or cannot be achieved.
Idle speculation is all that is.
No Country has ever left the EU under Article 50, so there are no precedents anybody can hope to rely on.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on May 01, 2017, 20:27:18 PM
Until negotiations have been completed, nobody knows what can or cannot be achieved.
Idle speculation is all that is.
No Country has ever left the EU under Article 50, so there are no precedents anybody can hope to rely on.

But on balance its really not looking too good right now, do we really think we can magically improve our negotiating position? If we are out of the single market even Turkey is in a better trading position and we will be 8-10 years behind the ballgame (American phrase ..get used to it).
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on May 01, 2017, 21:48:41 PM
Yurp has an awful lot to lose as well. There'll be horsetrading aplenty in the years to come.
The end game of the EU is a federal superstate. I and millions of others don't want that. It'll have a bureaucracy based on the French *shudders* I worked for a French owned company. Common Chart of Accounts my arse.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on May 02, 2017, 07:19:40 AM
I saw it reported the other day that those that drafted Article 50, restricted the 'leaving' period to two years to deter any member leaving. It was considered, by the Eurocrats, to be insufficient time for the complexity of negotiations required. This would seem to be in keeping with the mantra, "you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave".
This is one reason the UK government is right to say we are prepared to walk away without a deal.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on May 02, 2017, 10:24:20 AM
The May delusion summed up in a short read  https://medium.com/@stewartwood6887/theresa-mays-mistaken-precedent-for-a-brexit-based-on-cherry-picking-1e2e6a3b9985 (https://medium.com/@stewartwood6887/theresa-mays-mistaken-precedent-for-a-brexit-based-on-cherry-picking-1e2e6a3b9985)

How can this be described as a "delusion" until a deal is actually agreed? Obviously her initial negotiating position will be different from the eventual deal, if any - the same as any other negotiation involving two parties with a conflict of interest.

In any case these supposed misunderstandings and unrealistic expectations on the UK government's side are as easily, and as correctly understood as unrealistic expectations on the EU's side. We aren't asking them for favours here, and if they are to get what they want they will need to soften their position.

There's absolutely nothing to see here, but those on the Left who persistently want to their own country worse off against its competitors will take delight in undermining the government. In its own way it's nothing more than the same anti-patriotic, self-hating sentiment that led Corbyn to cheer on the IRA against the UK for decades.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on May 02, 2017, 10:51:39 AM
in France, Emmanuel Macron is attempting to pander to the considerable part of the electorate that are eurosceptic. He says that it is inconceivable that after his election he will not immediately seek EU reform. I'm not sure anyone, or even himself, believes this is possible but he's probably said enough to ensure victory making Frexit unlikely.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on May 02, 2017, 15:13:21 PM
The madness of Brexit, encapsulated....


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/02/britain-complacency-brexit-humiliation--france-germany-eu-uk?CMP=share_btn_tw
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on May 02, 2017, 19:10:50 PM
Same old remoaner sore loser cowardice - read it all before.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on May 02, 2017, 22:02:56 PM
The whole premise of the EU's ever closer union is to ensure that there are no more Franco-Prussian wars. That is the driving force.
Nothing to do with us. We're off. Thank you very much. Why do Grauniad writers hate their country so much?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on May 02, 2017, 22:41:40 PM
Anti Brexit does not mean anti-Britain.


It may mean anti-Little Englander though!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on May 02, 2017, 22:46:59 PM
The whole premise of the EU's ever closer union is to ensure that there are no more Franco-Prussian wars. That is the driving force.
Nothing to do with us. We're off. Thank you very much. Why do Grauniad writers hate their country so much?

Yes, they take Juncker's every word at face value, while assuming their own government is lying - classic self-hating anti-patriotism of the Left. The same people who wanted May to guarantee rights of EU citizens immediately back in November have not a single word of criticism for Juncker's "astonishment" that she now wants to come to an agreement on that by the end of June.

Iain Dale nails it:

http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/iain-dale/juncker-may-brexit-deal-eu-trust-lie/ (http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/iain-dale/juncker-may-brexit-deal-eu-trust-lie/)

I think these useful idiots of the EU in the media are probably helping to hoover in more Conservative votes, because the average man or woman in the street takes their own country's side. Whereas one suspects that the clown who wrote that Guardian piece wants nothing more than to spend his life on his knees with a foreigner's penis in his mouth.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on May 03, 2017, 08:02:03 AM
Financial Times estimating that the bill to exit the EU could now reach 100 Billion Euro....good this isn't it...

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on May 03, 2017, 11:40:24 AM
"We will not be paying €100bn" - David Davis

It's just one word against another.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on May 03, 2017, 15:10:56 PM
"We will not be paying €100bn" - David Davis

It's just one word against another.

Indeed...the problem is that our bargaining position is nowhere near as strong as the theirs...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: zoony on May 03, 2017, 17:01:15 PM
I didn't realise there was a leaving clause when we joined...What a load of bollocks! Why should we have to pay a penny to leave?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on May 03, 2017, 17:27:32 PM
We are not paying to leave we are settling our account (sum to be finalised). We will certainly be paying to leave in the long run.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on May 03, 2017, 18:58:25 PM
We are not paying to leave we are settling our account (sum to be finalised). We will certainly be paying to leave in the long run.
Ooh, come on now Jean-Claude, I'm on my knees; just unzip yourself and I know I can make you treat us nicely!

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on May 03, 2017, 19:14:51 PM
Ooh, come on now Jean-Claude, I'm on my knees; just unzip yourself and I know I can make you treat us nicely!

The shafting Boris and co. have given you will be far more distasteful.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on May 03, 2017, 21:49:45 PM
We are not paying to leave we are settling our account (sum to be finalised).
Settling our account my arse. We're leaving. End Of.
As net contributors we've more than paid our share and we're entitled to a share of any joint assets built up during our membership. I'm sure we'll have a share in a fine wine cellar - if Juncker's left any.

I dare say as things won't all be plain sailing in the years to come, but we're well out of a club that has free trade between members - for a fee, like Dude WTF?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on May 03, 2017, 23:29:25 PM

The shafting Boris and co. have given you will be far more distasteful.
Styx - Crystal Ball
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on May 04, 2017, 08:26:44 AM
I am starting to think we are best saving ourselves 2 years of BS negotiations that look likely to go nowhere. Why not leave in June on WTO terms - we can start then negotiating straight away with Countries outside of the EU.........just an idea...?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on May 04, 2017, 10:46:07 AM
300 jobs to be created in the steel industry by Liberty House's £20m investment in South Yorkshire.
Manufacturing in the UK is at a 3yr high. OECD reports the UK is attracting more foreign investment than any other european country.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on May 04, 2017, 10:50:58 AM
I am starting to think we are best saving ourselves 2 years of BS negotiations that look likely to go nowhere. Why not leave in June on WTO terms - we can start then negotiating straight away with Countries outside of the EU.........just an idea...?
A very good one, if only because it would infuriate the eurocrats!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on May 04, 2017, 11:07:05 AM
300 jobs to be created in the steel industry by Liberty House's £20m investment in South Yorkshire.
Manufacturing in the UK is at a 3yr high. OECD reports the UK is attracting more foreign investment than any other european country.


Good news and well needed if all those city banking positions end up moving to Europe...


http://fortune.com/2017/05/04/jpmorgan-brexit-exodus-europe-banking/
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on May 04, 2017, 11:57:58 AM
Quite possibly true but always hard to fully believe a report that has a glaring factual error - states that it will move jobs to other Cities in the 28 Nation Block - surely that should read 27 once we've gone??!.....just saying...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on May 04, 2017, 11:59:50 AM
Quite possibly true but always hard to fully believe a report that has a glaring factual error - states that it will move jobs to other Cities in the 28 Nation Block - surely that should read 27 once we've gone??!.....just saying...


Perhaps Turkey have joined !!!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on May 04, 2017, 12:11:36 PM

Perhaps Turkey have joined !!!

 ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on May 04, 2017, 13:41:28 PM
How did that emoji work?? Can't even reply to a post containing one.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on May 04, 2017, 14:40:17 PM
How did that emoji work?? Can't even reply to a post containing one.


Had the same issue; think it depends on your browser - Chrome is problematic apparently.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on May 04, 2017, 14:46:38 PM
I got a 403 as well, Firefox / Linux
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on May 04, 2017, 16:54:24 PM
I'm using IE and Firefox - both no good :-(
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on May 05, 2017, 07:59:06 AM
Yes - I can do pastes, quotes and emojis fine on IE but in Chrome I get the 404 forbidden message - I have reported the issue but waiting to hear a solution.........
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on May 05, 2017, 14:04:57 PM
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/860450562575405056


Interesting Twitter thread to follow here if you're interested...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on May 07, 2017, 09:10:28 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/07/the-great-british-brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracy?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on May 08, 2017, 19:17:37 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/07/the-great-british-brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracy?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/07/the-great-british-brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracy?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)


I take it that's what passes for "sovereignty" these days?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on May 08, 2017, 19:28:45 PM
I read that earlier today actually, fascinating stuff. Rather tin-foil-hattish though it must be said. Here's what passes for sovereignty - the British people chose, after hearing the arguments from both sides, to assert the sovereignty of their own country. I notice that the remainers here don't seem to have been brainwashed into voting to leave the EU - are the rest of us just a bit more vulnerable to subliminal mind control?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on May 08, 2017, 19:35:21 PM
I read that earlier today actually, fascinating stuff. Rather tin-foil-hattish though it must be said. Here's what passes for sovereignty - the British people chose, after hearing the arguments from both sides, to assert the sovereignty of their own country. I notice that the remainers here don't seem to have been brainwashed into voting to leave the EU - are the rest of us just a bit more vulnerable to subliminal mind control?


The article states that only a relatively low number of people needed to be influenced and so were specifically targetted on social media.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on May 08, 2017, 19:37:32 PM
President elect Macron talks sense on Brexit...
Quote
"Britain must understand that our interest in the medium to long term is to have clear rules. So if Britain wants to trade with Europe it has to choose a model, such as the Swiss, Norwegian or Canadian. We have to accept that there are losses. But it’s the British who will lose the most. You cannot enjoy rights in Europe if you are not a member – otherwise it will fall apart. Europe is what has enabled us since 1945, in an unprecedented way, to preserve peace, security, freedom and prosperity in our continent. The British are making a serious mistake over the long term. [Foreign secretary] Boris Johnson enjoys giving flamboyant speeches but has no strategic vision; the turmoil he created the day after Brexit proves it. [Former leader of Ukip] Nigel Farage and Mr Johnson are responsible for this crime: they sailed the ship into battle and jumped overboard at the moment of crisis. Theresa May has handled it but what has been happening since then? On the geopolitical level as well as on the financial, realignment and submission to the US. What is going to happen is not “taking back control”: it’s servitude."
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on May 08, 2017, 19:38:27 PM
I suspect Cambridge Analytica will be in the news quite a bit this year when the CIA reports, the connections with key players looks suspicious if they are true.... a chilling read I thought
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on May 08, 2017, 20:16:32 PM
President elect Macron talks sense on Brexit...
He doesn't seem to know the difference between the EU and Europe.
Doesn't he know that it was the EU poking it's stick in Ukraine that has destabilised things there?
How's he going to govern France when he doesn't have a proper party?

He's going to reduce public servants by 120,000? In France?? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!
Pledging not to prop up failing businesses? In France?? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on May 08, 2017, 21:30:09 PM
I knew the mention of France would get you going Nick!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on May 08, 2017, 23:21:46 PM
more tin foil hattish?

https://patribotics.blog/2017/04/16/mike-flynns-treason-tour-global-russian-propaganda-coordinated-with-trump/
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on May 09, 2017, 00:27:56 AM
President elect Macron talks sense on Brexit...
He seems to think the EU is the answer and yet with a deeply divided society, numerous terrorist atrocities against French citizens, 25% youth unemployment and chaos in Calais.... It hasn't provided much hope thus far.
His delusion even runs to the idea that he can make huge cuts to the public sector workforce and introduce more liberal working practices. At least the French police will be busy. Cancel your holiday in France if you'd rather not spend it sat in your car on the M20.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on May 09, 2017, 00:42:55 AM
He also fancies taking a chunk of the City of London's business away to Paris.


Looking forward to my regular trips to France too, vive la difference!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on May 09, 2017, 00:54:30 AM
He also fancies taking a chunk of the City of London's business away to Paris.


Looking forward to my regular trips to France too, vive la difference!
He might fancy it but my guess is that the typical French worker's penchant for 2hr wine-fuelled lunches and a general 'can't do' attitude will ensure that most banks will probably stick with London.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on May 09, 2017, 01:03:25 AM
If the City of London loses its financial passporting rights as predicted by many of the big banks then I'm not so sure David?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on May 09, 2017, 07:01:16 AM
If the City of London loses its financial passporting rights as predicted by many of the big banks then I'm not so sure David?
There have been many predictions around Brexit.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on May 09, 2017, 07:59:38 AM
David Davis accepted the passporting one when he reported to the the HoC Select Committee, don't you remember?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27U3bf4kkuA

It's at 2:20 if you can't be bothered watching all 2:56 of it

Also, let's hope Le Touquet agreement stays in place or else some of the Calais problem might find its way to our shores?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on May 09, 2017, 09:27:31 AM
He might fancy it but my guess is that the typical French worker's penchant for 2hr wine-fuelled lunches and a general 'can't do' attitude will ensure that most banks will probably stick with London.


And its that kind of arrogance and Britain knows best attitude that could end up screwing the UK and its economy
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on May 09, 2017, 10:01:03 AM

And its that kind of arrogance and Britain knows best attitude that could end up screwing the UK and its economy
Having worked for a French owned company, I know that 2hr wine fuelled lunches are a thing of the past - at least fro multi-national - for French companies.
Heck, they even do some work in August these days! We used to have to report our monthly figures in 6 working days to Paris - apart from the July one, they didn't care about that, however they were dragged - kicking and screaming - into working in August.


One thing that won't change is the sheer bureaucratic nature of the French. Everything was a rigid box-ticking culture. There was no room for thinking outside the box. If you ever filled in the wrong box by mistake, that same box always had to be filled in. It was filled in once so something must have to go into it...


Funny how the Anglo-Saxon business world is so Laissez-faire, yet not the French.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on May 09, 2017, 16:09:21 PM

The article states that only a relatively low number of people needed to be influenced and so were specifically targetted on social media.

People are influenced both ways on social media - and if you check a typical political Twitter hashtag for example you'll see that comments are dominated by naive left-wingers.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on May 09, 2017, 19:21:03 PM

And its that kind of arrogance and Britain knows best attitude that could end up screwing the UK and its economy
Based on experience rather than arrogance.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on May 09, 2017, 19:30:23 PM
People are influenced both ways on social media - and if you check a typical political Twitter hashtag for example you'll see that comments are dominated by naive left-wingers.


I think it's Facebook rather than Twitter that was targetted as it has far wider reach, close on 40% of the global population allegedly?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on May 09, 2017, 19:58:18 PM
Based on experience rather than arrogance.


Wonder how they manage to have much higher productivity figures than the UK. Do they get all their work done in the morning or does the wine make them more productive?

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on May 09, 2017, 20:17:18 PM
touché :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on May 09, 2017, 22:45:06 PM
Apparently Macron is calling for the EU to institute a "buy European" policy, reserving access to public sector procurement contracts to companies that produce most of their goods or services in the EU. This would freeze British companies out of EU government contracts post Brexit, and would also be in direct contravention of the WTO Government Procurement Agreement of which the EU is a full member.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on May 10, 2017, 07:21:26 AM
Apparently Macron is calling for the EU to institute a "buy European" policy, reserving access to public sector procurement contracts to companies that produce most of their goods or services in the EU. This would freeze British companies out of EU government contracts post Brexit, and would also be in direct contravention of the WTO Government Procurement Agreement of which the EU is a full member.
No surprise here, the EU have always been inward-looking protectionists.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on May 10, 2017, 07:22:21 AM
touché
Rush - One Little Victory ;-)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on May 11, 2017, 23:32:19 PM
More "less than encouraging" economic news today with the Bank of England lowering growth expectations and Mark Carney warning of tough times ahead amid fears of wage growth being "notably weaker than expected"
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on May 12, 2017, 07:12:56 AM
More "less than encouraging" economic news today with the Bank of England lowering growth expectations and Mark Carney warning of tough times ahead amid fears of wage growth being "notably weaker than expected"
Can't believe a word he says.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: zoony on May 17, 2017, 05:08:24 AM
More "less than encouraging" economic news today with the Bank of England lowering growth expectations and Mark Carney warning of tough times ahead amid fears of wage growth being "notably weaker than expected"


Wage growth? What's that then mate?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on May 19, 2017, 09:46:04 AM
But I thought we'd be fine with no deal? TM admits it will be dire http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN18E1J4 (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN18E1J4?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=591da30704d30144fd9c2d9b&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter)Given that there's no way you could do a deal by March 2019 and you only need one country to refuse an extension, it looks like dire is coming.
Pretending two years was enough will prove a fatal mistake, I reckon. As the man who wrote Article 50 has indicated, it was never intended to be used sensibly.


Anyone else worried or will they (Fox et al) replace her through another Coup when she's secured what looks a comfortable forthcoming election victory?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on May 19, 2017, 09:48:40 AM
not great news...




https://global.handelsblatt.com/companies-markets/germans-firms-favor-tough-line-on-brexit-768111#.WR6qilYxOkE.twitter
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on May 19, 2017, 19:32:38 PM
As the man who wrote Article 50 has indicated, it was never intended to be used sensibly.

Good grief.
And people wonder why "experts" get a bad name...
Hotel. Bloody. California. :(

Welcome to the EU protectionist straightjacket.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on May 28, 2017, 21:49:49 PM
http://www.economist.com/blogs/kaffeeklatsch/2017/05/what-s-brewing-germany
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on May 30, 2017, 17:43:05 PM
Someone is going to be extremely busy ...

https://ig.ft.com/brexit-treaty-database/
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on June 03, 2017, 16:10:04 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/29/opinion/britain-brexit-economy.html?smid=pl-share
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on June 03, 2017, 20:52:58 PM
To be honest, while I appreciate they may be interesting for some, I'm finding these articles opining that we'd be much better off in the EU about as worthwhile as I'd find a piece arguing that Ed Miliband would have been a stronger PM than Cameron. The matter was decided some time ago.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on June 04, 2017, 00:05:03 AM
To be honest, while I appreciate they may be interesting for some, I'm finding these articles opining that we'd be much better off in the EU about as worthwhile as I'd find a piece arguing that Ed Miliband would have been a stronger PM than Cameron. The matter was decided some time ago.
Waste of ink. As you say, the decision is made. What is now relevant is where it leads us in 2 years time..and no one knows the answer to that.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Matt2112 on June 04, 2017, 11:07:33 AM
Waste of ink. As you say, the decision is made. What is now relevant is where it leads us in 2 years time..and no one knows the answer to that.


Remainers might say that's precisely the reason why it was crazy to vote Leave in the first place.


But, yes, we are where we are, so let's get behind the process of leaving.



Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on June 07, 2017, 23:49:30 PM
You don't have to be in the EU to be European. Ask the Norwegians.
On second thoughts, don't ask the Norwegians, they're mental as feck...
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on June 09, 2017, 07:19:02 AM
Suspended until further notice.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on June 09, 2017, 08:06:15 AM
Suspended until we have a Government to negotiate.......
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on June 09, 2017, 09:02:06 AM
So the DUP want a comprehensive free trade and Customs deal with the EU.

There maybe trouble ahead...




Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on June 09, 2017, 09:45:16 AM
are the negotiations still starting in 11 days?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on June 09, 2017, 10:59:09 AM
So the DUP want a comprehensive free trade and Customs deal with the EU.

There maybe trouble ahead...



That's quite a good deal really and would save us a lot of headaches setting new customs tariffs. Just so long as there aren't too many extra strings attached. Guess that would also include free movement of people which again I have no issue with. The UK will after all be less attractive to EU workers with a weakened pound.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on June 10, 2017, 13:15:45 PM
I do have a strong issue with the free movement of people, in that it undoubtedly goes against the spirit of the referendum result.

Apparently the government Chief Whip is off to negotiate a "formal coalition" with the DUP. I hope that quite soon we will find out what that entails. I see a need for pragmatism and moderation on both sides.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on June 13, 2017, 08:30:04 AM
The free movement of Europeans within Europe I don't see as a big problem ( sure it was made more problematic when some of the old Eastern Bloc Countries got brought into the fold ).But if you look at the people that currently keep our Service and Hospitality Industries our NHS, Agriculture and Construction running a large % would be Europeans - as the NHS is finding already if this source of labour dries up we are in trouble. Factor in the return of retirement age Brits who have been living in the Costa Del Sol to  further clog the NHS as they are being kicked out of Spain or not allowed to leave to live there then we start to see real problems.
It's not even like the UK is currently suffering from high un-employment so these people can't be accused of "stealing jobs" either.

For me, I think we need to work harder to prevent non Europeans from entering the UK and Political refugees who have already traveled through half of Europe to get to us. Obviously we need to take our quota like many Countries do but for those that come here from Europe to work and learn - paying taxes back into our system I don't have an issue - in fact I think they are essential to our Countries continued growth.
We need to remember it works both ways - we benefit greatly from the Freedom of Movement in Europe. I wonder how many of those that voted for Brexit will be grumbling when they go on holiday to Spain and find they have to queue in the non EU Citizen lines at the Spanish Airport for 3 hours and also find their EU Health Card is no longer valid there. Or when they stay in the UK there is no one to pour their pint or clean their room as all The Polish have gone home......
Many people had different reasons for voting Brexit or Remain - which is why getting the "right" deal is impossible as everyone has their own idea of what life outside the EU should look like.

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on June 13, 2017, 09:47:48 AM
The free movement of Europeans within Europe I don't see as a big problem ( sure it was made more problematic when some of the old Eastern Bloc Countries got brought into the fold ).But if you look at the people that currently keep our Service and Hospitality Industries our NHS, Agriculture and Construction running a large % would be Europeans - as the NHS is finding already if this source of labour dries up we are in trouble. Factor in the return of retirement age Brits who have been living in the Costa Del Sol to  further clog the NHS as they are being kicked out of Spain or not allowed to leave to live there then we start to see real problems.
It's not even like the UK is currently suffering from high un-employment so these people can't be accused of "stealing jobs" either.

For me, I think we need to work harder to prevent non Europeans from entering the UK and Political refugees who have already traveled through half of Europe to get to us. Obviously we need to take our quota like many Countries do but for those that come here from Europe to work and learn - paying taxes back into our system I don't have an issue - in fact I think they are essential to our Countries continued growth.
We need to remember it works both ways - we benefit greatly from the Freedom of Movement in Europe. I wonder how many of those that voted for Brexit will be grumbling when they go on holiday to Spain and find they have to queue in the non EU Citizen lines at the Spanish Airport for 3 hours and also find their EU Health Card is no longer valid there. Or when they stay in the UK there is no one to pour their pint or clean their room as all The Polish have gone home......
Many people had different reasons for voting Brexit or Remain - which is why getting the "right" deal is impossible as everyone has their own idea of what life outside the EU should look like.
You raise a lot of good points there, Mr R - especially when you mention older Brits that may require health care and our relatively high employment levels although, I'd have thought that the factors resulting in an aging UK population (advances in medicine etc.) would also be at work in other countries. Many (if not all) countries are going to find they have an increasing retired population needed to be supported by fewer in work.  This makes me wonder whether we should feel comfortable selfishly enticing the young wealth producers of poor countries when they will surely be needed at home in the future.You suggest that we should do more to prevent non-Europeans from coming here but why the discrimination?  You also rightly point out that one of the main problems of free movement is around those that come from the 'old' eastern bloc countries and this is the source of one of the fundamental flaws in the EU's 'expansionist' agenda. Principally, workers from these countries are a main driver for keeping wages low, mostly in low-skilled jobs. The NHS situation has arisen largely because it is easier/cheaper to import staff from abroad than provide training places for British nationals. I don't believe there is a shortage of young people that would like to train for nursing positions etc. in this country (providing the salaries are reasonable). It seems pretty unfair that we are expecting the poor countries of Europe to meet the cost of training health professionals, only for them to leave for the UK once qualified, for a far higher reward. We are addicted to cheap labour and the EU can provide an unlimited supply. I now expect that it will be very difficult to stop free movement per se, I think we will come to an agreement where free movement will continue for those with offers of employment. There is little chance of the government's targets being met if this is the case. Whilst the UK remains a 'honey pot' those from poorer nations will always want to come.
I don't fully agree (surprise, surprise!) that we can be completely comfortable with the fact that workers from the EU are contributing to the tax-take without, at the same time, presenting many challenges to services, housing, infrastructure etc. If levels were reasonable it would be possible to manage these additional demands but to provide for over 300k new UK residents per year is just not possible.
The refugee point is well made but without a coherent and sensible approach by the EU, it will remain a problem. Countries such as France are unwilling to implement current guidelines and are content to shift the problem to the UK. Refugees in Calais should have been settled long before they reach there, if they are unwilling to accept the offer of refuge in any country other than the UK, they compromise their status as refugees (exception being those with family already in the UK). Frankly, I see no solutions coming from the EU on this issue - like many other things they are prepared to keep kicking the can further down the road on this.

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on June 13, 2017, 13:19:15 PM
You suggest that we should do more to prevent non-Europeans from coming here but why the discrimination? 


Well this is driven by the fact that we have more control over this - ie not driven by EU Directives and to almost mirror other non EU Countries - we only allow people in on a points based or similar system just as a UK Resident would when trying to move to another Country.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on June 13, 2017, 14:20:20 PM

Well this is driven by the fact that we have more control over this - ie not driven by EU Directives and to almost mirror other non EU Countries - we only allow people in on a points based or similar system just as a UK Resident would when trying to move to another Country.
I understand this but it's wrong, IMO, that we should not have these same controls for EU citizens rather than have no control just because their own countries belong to the same 'club'.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on June 13, 2017, 16:58:38 PM
I understand this but it's wrong, IMO, that we should not have these same controls for EU citizens rather than have no control just because their own countries belong to the same 'club'.


Well we do or did not sure now to be honest also have a more lenient approach to Commonwealth Countries too - be interested to know how this stands now, and they are all part of another "club".


I get your argument David but for UK Citizens to expect free movement around the EU then we obviously need to allow this to fellow Citizens of the EU - I honestly don't think that many that voted for Brexit purely on the "immigration issue" really grasped this concept. People somehow think we can negotiate a one way street package that suits just us, that simply isn't going to happen.
Bottom line is without the free movement of people the UK will be a worse not better place to live as many of the jobs the EU workers are going to leave behind will not be filled by the benefit Britain handout brigade left.

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on June 13, 2017, 22:17:11 PM
Clock is ticking towards Brexit and the UK seems to be blindly heading towards it without any discernable strategy.


Hopefully looks are deceiving
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: zoony on June 14, 2017, 20:31:48 PM
Macro says the door is still open for us. Here we go. We voted out didn't we?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on June 14, 2017, 20:43:52 PM
Half of us did.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: zoony on June 15, 2017, 16:50:54 PM
Half of us did.


Just over half actually mate 😉.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on June 15, 2017, 17:52:15 PM
most of the majority are dead now, almost 12 months after the referendum ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on June 15, 2017, 19:00:16 PM

Just over half actually mate 😉.


A crazily small majority for such a major decision, anyway as long as there is a small glimmer of hope I'll fight on to save this Country from its self inflicted future decline.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on June 15, 2017, 23:16:49 PM

A crazily small majority for such a major decision

Well, a majority nonetheless. Staying in would also have been a major decision despite being the status quo, and that had a majority of less than 0.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on June 16, 2017, 09:43:39 AM
If the youth engagement seen in the recent election had happened a year earlier, the vote would have been decisively to stay in I would imagine. 
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bez on June 16, 2017, 10:03:07 AM
If the youth engagement seen in the recent election had happened a year earlier, the vote would have been decisively to stay in I would imagine.

Or if Corbyn had actively campaigned to remain.....
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: zoony on June 16, 2017, 12:17:54 PM

A crazily small majority for such a major decision, anyway as long as there is a small glimmer of hope I'll fight on to save this Country from its self inflicted future decline.


So if it had gone the other way, would it still have been a crazily small majority then?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on June 16, 2017, 13:45:36 PM

So if it had gone the other way, would it still have been a crazily small majority then?

The majority for change of something so important should be much larger than the majority to stay. Plenty of examples where a 20%+ etc majority is required.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on June 18, 2017, 22:23:47 PM
But the EU is a dynamic, changing and rather volatile thing - the safe option is to leave. I'd have had a 20% margin necessary to stay, but fortunately it wasn't necessary.

Nice to hear the Chancellor confirm in unequivocal terms that we're leaving the single market and the customs union.

https://twitter.com/MarrShow/status/876363280909869056
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: zoony on June 19, 2017, 02:44:31 AM
The majority for change of something so important should be much larger than the majority to stay. Plenty of examples where a 20%+ etc majority is required.


You can't call that democracy then!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on June 19, 2017, 08:01:02 AM
of course he can mate,  3/10 didn't vote in the referendum - perhaps they preferred the status quo of remaining in the EU?

Anyway, we're 'leaving' now apparently
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on June 19, 2017, 11:32:10 AM
of course he can mate,  3/10 didn't vote in the referendum - perhaps they preferred the status quo of remaining in the EU?

Anyway, we're 'leaving' now apparently

The polling stations were open all day, and I can't imagine that a couple of million people were under the impression that abstentions counted as a "no" vote.

Anyway on an issue as important and fundamental as who governs you, a majority wanting change cannot just be ignored.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Bisto on June 19, 2017, 12:28:17 PM
The arguments over Brexit will be going on decades after all the Is have been doted and the Ts crossed. Every up/down turn in the UK economy will be credited to/blamed on Brexit....I've upgraded my ambitions of becoming a Recluse to a Hermit 😑
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on June 19, 2017, 12:36:51 PM
The arguments over Brexit will be going on decades after all the Is have been doted and the Ts crossed. Every up/down turn in the UK economy will be credited to/blamed on Brexit....I've upgraded my ambitions of becoming a Recluse to a Hermit 😑


wise move - I'm predicting a car crash.  All the soundings are that the UK negotiating team are completely unprepared for what is to come. Apparently half the team have left or not been re-elected.   And it's not as if the UK is in a position of strength anyway.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on June 19, 2017, 14:07:06 PM

wise move - I'm predicting a car crash.  All the soundings are that the UK negotiating team are completely unprepared for what is to come. Apparently half the team have left or not been re-elected.   And it's not as if the UK is in a position of strength anyway.
zzzzzzzzzz  ;)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on June 19, 2017, 14:58:10 PM
zzzzzzzzzz  ;)


Good point. The UK appears to be sleep-walking into this!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: zoony on June 19, 2017, 18:05:32 PM
of course he can mate,  3/10 didn't vote in the referendum - perhaps they preferred the status quo of remaining in the EU?

Anyway, we're 'leaving' now apparently


And the sooner the better.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on June 19, 2017, 23:29:43 PM
Quite encouraged by the news today, strong signs that the public are going to get the Brexit they voted for and nice to see a bit of harmony between the two sides:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/19/david-davis-eu-rule-soft-brexit-day-one-negotiations/

I'm doubtful that we'll go from being one of the strongest economies in the world to living in caves in a few years.

Also interested to see this:

(http://truth.justdied.com/images/eu_publics.jpg)

Of course that's only a subset of the 27 EU countries (28 if you like).

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Richard_2112 on June 20, 2017, 00:34:39 AM
Borrowed from a friend:

Brexit Negotiations Day 1

David Davis (DD) meets Michel Barnier (MB).

11.03 meeting starts.

DD: Hello froggy, just my little joke *DD laughs … no one else does*. Well let’s get this over with chaps then it’s off for a round of frogs legs, just my little joke *DD smirks, one of his civil servants starts chewing his own fist*.

MB: Good afternoon. Here is the bill for the commitments made by your country prior to exiting the European Union. *MB hands over a large piece of paper to DD*

DD: Crickey Moses the Maybot’s going to explode at that. Erm, we can offer you a truck load of stripy jumpers if you want, just my little joke *DD beams, no one else comments*.

*A moment of silence*

DD: A right well, let’s get to it. We want full access to the single market without having to have any of those pesky foreigners, no offence ha-hah, coming in and stealing our jobs.

MB: No.

DD: Ah ok, well then we want access to the customs union and still be able to have free trade with other nations.

MB: No.

DD: Ah ok, we want have access to all your information in regard to security and give you nothing in exchange.

MB: No.

DD: Ah ok, we want – well actually Arlene wants - to have tariff free access to across the Irish border but just the Irish boarder mind you and nowhere else.

MB: No.

*Sotto voice from the EU side: Qui est-ce buffoon?*

*MB stares at his colleague in disapproval.*

DD: Ah ok, well what have you got then? We’ve got all the bunches of onions we need you know. *DD grins like a cat licking its own balls. A British Civil Servant logs onto Monster.com*. Ha-hah, just one of my little jokes.

*A moment of silence*

MB: You will tell us what you wish to do about the rights of EU nationals currently living in your country and pay what you owe before we will discuss any other details of these negotiations. We will meet in one week to discuss these matters in detail.

*The EU delegation leaves the room*.

DD: Blimey, can they do that?

Official: *Takes fist out of mouth*. Erm, yes.

DD: Crickey!

Meeting ends 11.17.

17.35 - DD holds press conference

DD: We have had incredibly detailed and constructive talks regarding our glorious future as a free trading nation…..
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on June 20, 2017, 07:29:49 AM
Interesting summary of the first day..https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/19/a-frazzled-david-davis-takes-england-to-a-3-0-defeat-in-the-first-round
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on June 21, 2017, 12:38:18 PM
what's to be read into the Queen's choice of millinery ?  ;D


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DC13XpEXgAEUrQT.jpg)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on June 21, 2017, 12:54:45 PM
I see some of our contributors haven't lost their habit of taking anyone's side in an argument, as long as it's against their own country.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Richard_2112 on June 21, 2017, 14:44:14 PM
I see some of our contributors haven't lost their habit of taking anyone's side in an argument, as long as it's against their own country.
Oh boo hoo, charge us with treason then you old dinosaur
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on June 21, 2017, 16:52:37 PM
I prefer simply to laugh at you, Richard.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on June 21, 2017, 18:20:47 PM
I see some of our contributors haven't lost their habit of taking anyone's side in an argument, as long as it's against their own country.
Bad losers
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on June 24, 2017, 10:11:08 AM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40382479
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on June 24, 2017, 19:41:23 PM
Yes, I heard on the news that our offer on EU nationals residing here was "below expectations", what a shame. Indeed I heard this discussed by participants in last night's Any Questions, including Diane Abbott, as well.

Much wringing of hands and distress over the plight of people from other countries living here and disappointment that we've left it so long before offering any certainty, not a toss given over the welfare of our own citizens living in the EU.

I thought Diane did OK by the way, talking the usual nonsense but reasonably confidently and articulately, and without crashing into anything.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Richard_2112 on June 24, 2017, 20:21:53 PM
Yes, I heard on the news that our offer on EU nationals residing here was "below expectations", what a shame. Indeed I heard this discussed by participants in last night's Any Questions, including Diane Abbott, as well.

Much wringing of hands and distress over the plight of people from other countries living here and disappointment that we've left it so long before offering any certainty, not a toss given over the welfare of our own citizens living in the EU.

I thought Diane did OK by the way, talking the usual nonsense but reasonably confidently and articulately, and without crashing into anything.
Erm, the EU's offer was to give a lifetime guarantee of their existing rights to British people living in Europe, and for some reason we didn't even come close to matching that offer, so it seems the only people not giving a toss over the welfare of our own citizens living in the EU is our own government
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on June 25, 2017, 00:19:59 AM
Erm, the EU's offer was to give a lifetime guarantee of their existing rights to British people living in Europe, and for some reason we didn't even come close to matching that offer, so it seems the only people not giving a toss over the welfare of our own citizens living in the EU is our own government

Here's the problem with that: British citizens living and working in EU countries are currently subject to the laws of the country in which they reside, and naturally the ECJ is sovereign there. The British courts aren't.

But we're leaving the EU. Naturally the British courts will be sovereign here, and the ECJ won't. So what we've offered is actually a symmetrical and normal arrangement. American citizens don't have recourse to the US Supreme Court to uphold their rights as residents here, for example.

So what the EU expects is for the EU's supreme court to hold sway over the rights of UK citizens in Europe and also of EU citizens in the UK, while the British courts are the ultimate arbiter of neither. That would not be a "match".
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on June 26, 2017, 08:39:47 AM
Here's the Australian take on it

https://twitter.com/InsidersABC/status/878766306261999616
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on June 27, 2017, 20:13:19 PM
Rank hypocrisy?


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/27/david-davis-id-cards-eu-nationals-civil-rights
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on June 27, 2017, 20:16:01 PM
Hardly.
No ID Cards for the True Brits.
ID cards for the great unwashed foreign scum.

Simples :)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on June 30, 2017, 10:55:13 AM
Confidence in a post-Brexit UK from Rolls Royce

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-40441018

And the Guardian's version of the story which cannot resist giving gobshite Len McCLusky a chance to peddle doom over Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/29/rolls-royce-jobs-investment-unions-uk-brexit

Bad Losers
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on June 30, 2017, 11:21:14 AM


Perfectly reasonable comments by McCluskey.  Wonder whether the  Rolls Royce announcement will balance out this?....


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/29/ireland-says-dozen-london-based-banks-to-relocate-to-dublin-over-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/29/ireland-says-dozen-london-based-banks-to-relocate-to-dublin-over-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw)
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on June 30, 2017, 12:26:22 PM
or this?

https://www.ft.com/content/248d4618-54da-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: The Letter R on June 30, 2017, 13:33:44 PM
or this?

https://www.ft.com/content/248d4618-54da-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2 (https://www.ft.com/content/248d4618-54da-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2)


Sorting out French labour and tax reforms one could argue is a bigger task for the new French government than the UK negotiating Brexit - the French won't be giving up their workers rights that easily.......
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on June 30, 2017, 13:41:05 PM

Perfectly reasonable comments by McCluskey.  Wonder whether the  Rolls Royce announcement will balance out this?....


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/29/ireland-says-dozen-london-based-banks-to-relocate-to-dublin-over-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/29/ireland-says-dozen-london-based-banks-to-relocate-to-dublin-over-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw)
'Perfectly reasonable comments' and 'McClusky' don't belong in the same sentence.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on June 30, 2017, 13:42:48 PM

Sorting out French labour and tax reforms one could argue is a bigger task for the new French government than the UK negotiating Brexit - the French won't be giving up their workers rights that easily.......
My thoughts exactly.
Bon chance, Monsieur Macron!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on June 30, 2017, 14:00:28 PM


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/29/ireland-says-dozen-london-based-banks-to-relocate-to-dublin-over-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/29/ireland-says-dozen-london-based-banks-to-relocate-to-dublin-over-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw)
'Bullshit watch'

"Thinktank Bruegel recently said London could lose upwards of 10,000 banking jobs as a result of Brexit, a far cry from early predictions of 100,000 jobs departing".
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on June 30, 2017, 14:38:29 PM
'Bullshit watch'

"Thinktank Bruegel recently said London could lose upwards of 10,000 banking jobs as a result of Brexit, a far cry from early predictions of 100,000 jobs departing".


10,000 is still a huge amount of jobs all for misjudged national pride
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on June 30, 2017, 14:54:10 PM

10,000 is still a huge amount of jobs all for misjudged national pride
;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on July 01, 2017, 23:44:37 PM
https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21724395-country-has-not-cut-such-pathetic-figure-global-stage-suez-britains-decline


a bleak read
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on July 02, 2017, 11:46:26 AM
Yeah for Brexit....


https://www.ft.com/content/0c3427b2-5ce1-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on July 02, 2017, 11:48:15 AM
Cough up Boris....


http://whatdoesborisowe.co.uk/
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on July 02, 2017, 12:32:46 PM
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/brexit-negotiations/negotiating-documents-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en


The EU really seems to have its act together for Brexit.


I suppose this is what strong and stable looks like?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on July 02, 2017, 17:30:45 PM
It's The Sour Grapes Bunch  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on July 02, 2017, 18:40:47 PM
Vs the head in the sand bunch!
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: döm on July 04, 2017, 11:58:39 AM
Blaming immigrants for all the woes in society is lazy economics and lazy politics.


Germany, the EU country with the highest immigrant population, saw real wages grow by 14.9% wheras those in the UK fell by 10.4%
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Thailand Express on July 04, 2017, 13:49:42 PM
 :o


https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/07/vote-leave-campaign-director-says-voting-leave-may-have-been-an-error/

Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on July 04, 2017, 13:58:47 PM
you couldn't make this up
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on July 05, 2017, 13:30:14 PM
Blaming immigrants for all the woes in society is lazy economics and lazy politics.

Does anyone really blame immigrants for all the woes in society? It's our leaders who got us into this mess, not immigrants. They just want a better life, unfortunately our politicians continue to promise it for them, here in Europe.


Bill Gates seems to get it:


http://www.news.com.au/world/europe/bill-gates-cautions-europe-on-its-open-door-immigration-policy/news-story/69aa93741619820a5e13093ba9c7294e
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on July 05, 2017, 16:04:38 PM

10,000 is still a huge amount of jobs all for misjudged national pride

The desire for liberty and self-government is not misjudged.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Slim on July 05, 2017, 16:07:49 PM
:o


https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/07/vote-leave-campaign-director-says-voting-leave-may-have-been-an-error/ (https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/07/vote-leave-campaign-director-says-voting-leave-may-have-been-an-error/)

OK, so from a remainer point of view - a year ago he was misguided, xenophobic etc, and some time in the following 12 months he woke up one morning far-sighted, shrewd and wise. It's still only one person's opinion either way. And if we subtract his vote from the total counted in June 2016, we still win by a decisive majority.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on July 05, 2017, 18:16:46 PM
June 2016 is a very different picture to today's economy, we have seen investment drop in the auto industry, a huge increase in the price of goods a weak pound and a weak government. Would we vote for Brexit in July 17 with what we know now? No rational person would.
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: NeilP on July 05, 2017, 18:38:30 PM
there will be another referendum I suspect, somewhere down the line... say 2019?
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: DavidL on July 05, 2017, 19:13:03 PM
June 2016 is a very different picture to today's economy, we have seen investment drop in the auto industry, a huge increase in the price of goods a weak pound and a weak government. Would we vote for Brexit in July 17 with what we know now? No rational person would.
The arguments for leaving remain as strong as ever. The EU may well implode over the migration issue this summer. They haven't a clue. And what of the Greek crisis? Solved?...I don't think so.
Leaving a dysfunctional Union is only irrational if you are a member of The Sour Grapes Bunch.
Huge increase in the price of goods?  ;D
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nick on July 05, 2017, 19:52:59 PM
Somebody worded it better than i "Stronger IN was a good name for the Remain campaign. We WERE stronger IN and we are weaker already on the way out of the EU.

The UK is now the worst performing economy in the EU, the worst performing major economy in the world and has one of the worst performing currencies on the planet. Food costs have gone up by 5% compared to a year ago while real incomes are falling. With energy costs ever increasing, fuel costs on the increase and even low interest rates haven't helped the banks stop lending out their emergency reserves.

And yet some people still think we can buck decades long global trends and try to go it alone on the world stage.

By continuing on the road out of the EU we are committing economic suicide"
Title: Re: Brexit watch
Post by: Nïckslïkk2112 on July 05, 2017, 21:47:47 PM