Author Topic: Election!  (Read 9285 times)

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döm

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Re: Election!
« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2017, 18:04:11 PM »
This rings true, less than 2 years later...


Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband: https://t.co/fmhcfTunbm
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Slim

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Re: Election!
« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2017, 18:43:11 PM »
Some might say that the 'stability' aspect was a shade overstated, there. In retrospect anyway.

I never expected that we'd win the referendum and I'm sure DC didn't, either. Fair play to him for having the courage to put it to the test, though.

Slim

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Re: Election!
« Reply #17 on: April 18, 2017, 18:57:24 PM »
Thought it might be interesting to see what the opinion polls were doing before the 2001 election, when Labour were streets ahead and the result was a foregone conclusion. Interestingly although the polls suggested a lead of ~15 points or more pretty consistently in the weeks leading up to the election, they only did 9 points better on polling day - largely I suspect because a lot of people just didn't bother to vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2001

On the other hand four years later, the actual polling results reflected the opinion polls very closely:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2005_United_Kingdom_general_election

Sturgeon talking on BBC News now - stand by for some laughable intervention from her in coming days, she'll be jealous of the attention the actual head of government in Scotland is receiving.

Bez

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Re: Election!
« Reply #18 on: April 18, 2017, 20:16:55 PM »

Sturgeon talking on BBC News now - stand by for some laughable intervention from her in coming days, she'll be jealous of the attention the actual head of government in Scotland is receiving.

The SNP need to hold the same number of seats as they got in 2015, otherwise its and easy win for everyone else to say that they don't have a mandate for a referendum....a tough ask for them based on how fantastically well they did last time round
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Slim

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Re: Election!
« Reply #19 on: April 18, 2017, 21:17:10 PM »
It strikes me that the 2011 Fixed Term Parliaments Act was simply a waste of time - intended, or so I remember, to stop governments taking advantage of their own popularity. Yet despite being the one of the most unpopular opposition parties in any parliament I can remember, I assume Labour feel they have to go along with it or look weak and scared.

Or do they actually think they have a chance? With Corbyn's personal approval rating at -40 that would be somewhat miraculous.


DavidL

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Re: Election!
« Reply #20 on: April 18, 2017, 21:24:02 PM »
The SNP need to hold the same number of seats as they got in 2015, otherwise its and easy win for everyone else to say that they don't have a mandate for a referendum....a tough ask for them based on how fantastically well they did last time round
I think the Tories will do better in Scotland at the cost of the SNP. Ruth Davidson has done a good job for them recently. A weakened mandate for inependence would piss all over Jeanette Krankie's bonfire.

Bez

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Re: Election!
« Reply #21 on: April 18, 2017, 22:37:26 PM »
I think the Tories will do better in Scotland at the cost of the SNP. Ruth Davidson has done a good job for them recently. A weakened mandate for inependence would piss all over Jeanette Krankie's bonfire.

Not sure I agree....I think that there will be a certain amount of "backlash" against the prospect of another referendum by SNP voters and that will have more effect than an improvement from Ruth Davidson- who seems as loathed as Kesia (sp?) Dugdale....
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Thailand Express

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Re: Election!
« Reply #22 on: April 18, 2017, 22:45:22 PM »
The SNP need to hold the same number of seats as they got in 2015, otherwise its and easy win for everyone else to say that they don't have a mandate for a referendum....a tough ask for them based on how fantastically well they did last time round


I'd say it'll be virtually impossible for the SNP to maintain that number of MPs. Winning 95% of the seats in Scotland was absolutely unprecedented.
They will still be Scotland's largest party by a considerable margin, but the main interest for them may be whether they will still be the 3rd largest party in Westminster, which has given them additional parliamentary privileges since 2015.

DavidL

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Re: Election!
« Reply #23 on: April 18, 2017, 22:58:13 PM »
Smacks of opportunism and yet another broken promise by May who has repeatedly said she wouldn't hold a general election so soon after Brexit
Fair play to Mrs May for understanding that politics is a dirty business.

Slim

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Re: Election!
« Reply #24 on: April 18, 2017, 23:18:18 PM »
Fair play to Mrs May for understanding that politics is a dirty business.

What I'm waiting to see is if she's dirty enough to use all the opinions expressed by PLP members and moderate Labour figures at the time of their attempted coup last year, in the Tory campaign material.

Just watching Newsnight, showing interviews with long-time Labour voters in Barrow in Furness saying they like Theresa and will probably vote Tory, because she knows what she's doing.

I wonder if we can nick a few Northern seats.

Slim

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Re: Election!
« Reply #25 on: April 18, 2017, 23:35:37 PM »
Paul Mason is being interviewed on Newsnight now. Used to be their economics editor and is a loyal Corbyn supporter.

"I think Labour will win", he says.


DavidL

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Re: Election!
« Reply #26 on: April 19, 2017, 00:20:55 AM »
Paul Mason is being interviewed on Newsnight now. Used to be their economics editor and is a loyal Corbyn supporter.

"I think Labour will win", he says.
He's being economic......with the truth

döm

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Re: Election!
« Reply #27 on: April 19, 2017, 09:35:26 AM »
I think the Tories will do better in Scotland at the cost of the SNP. Ruth Davidson has done a good job for them recently. A weakened mandate for inependence would piss all over Jeanette Krankie's bonfire.


You'd hope that people in Scotland are better placed than anyone to see her blatant hypocrisy in saying it wasn't the right time for a Scottish referendum yet it is the right time for a UK wide election.
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Nïckslïkk2112

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Re: Election!
« Reply #28 on: April 19, 2017, 10:02:31 AM »

You'd hope that people in Scotland are better placed than anyone to see her blatant hypocrisy in saying it wasn't the right time for a Scottish referendum yet it is the right time for a UK wide election.
Brexit is a matter for the WHOLE of the UK.
A General Election is a matter for the WHOLE of the UK.


A referendum in Scotland is a matter regarding the semi-autonomous province of North Britain.


Now correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Mx Sturgeon calling for a General Election after Mrs May took over as Prime Minister? Hypocrisy and Politics, not unfamiliar bedfellows.
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Slim

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Re: Election!
« Reply #29 on: April 19, 2017, 11:26:02 AM »
You'd hope that people in Scotland are better placed than anyone to see her blatant hypocrisy in saying it wasn't the right time for a Scottish referendum yet it is the right time for a UK wide election.

That only works if they are the same thing, with the same reasons to happen - and they surely aren't, are they? That said the worst we can do in Scotland is lose one seat, after which we'll still have as many MPs there as Labour will after the election.